巨星农牧（603477）公告，公司拟以5000万元-1亿元资金回购股份，回购价格不超过28元/股。本次回 购的资金来源为公司自有资金和金融机构借款，回购的股份将用于员工持股计划或股权激励。回购期限 为董事会审议通过之日起12个月内。若回购股份全部用于实施员工持股计划或股权激励并全部予以锁 定，预计公司股权结构的变动为有限售条件流通股份增加178.57万股-357.14万股，占总股本比例 0.35%-0.70%。本次回购不会对公司日常经营、财务、研发、盈利能力、债务履行能力、未来发展及维 持上市地位等产生重大影响。 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector continues to experience weak adjustments, with the agricultural index down by 2.15%, ranking 30th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - National pig prices have been on a slight upward trend, with an average price of 14.85 CNY/kg as of April 18, 2025, reflecting a 1.60% increase from the previous week [5][18] - The profitability of self-bred pigs has increased to approximately 79 CNY per head, up by 28 CNY from the previous week, while the profitability of purchased piglets stands at 28 CNY [19][22] - The white feather chicken market is experiencing price fluctuations, with chick prices at 3.10 CNY per chick, showing a slight increase [31] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance - The agricultural sector index decreased by 2.15%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 increased by 0.59% and 1.19%, respectively [12] - All sub-sectors, except for fruit and vegetable processing, experienced declines, particularly in animal health and seed sectors [14][16] 2. Livestock Industry Tracking 2.1 Pigs - Prices are showing a strong performance in the north and weaker in the south, with expectations of limited price fluctuations in 2025 [5][18] - The supply of breeding sows is slightly increasing, with a total of 40.66 million heads as of February 2025, reflecting a minor year-on-year increase [21] - Recommendations include focusing on companies with cost advantages, such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuff Group, as well as smaller firms like Juxing Agriculture and Huatong Foods [22] 2.2 White Feather Chicken - The market is characterized by price volatility, with chick prices rising slightly, while feed prices are a concern for breeders [31] - The supply chain remains robust, with a significant increase in the number of breeding stock, but uncertainties in overseas breeding imports pose risks and opportunities [31] 3. Crop Industry Tracking - Sugar prices have slightly decreased to 6150 CNY/ton, while soybean prices have adjusted to 3692 CNY/ton, reflecting a 1.2% drop [35] - Cotton prices continue to decline, currently at 14205 CNY/ton, down by 73 CNY from the previous week [35] - Corn prices remain stable at 2230 CNY/ton, showing no significant change [35]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flows - Stock-type ETFs remain the main source of net inflows, with a net subscription of 343 billion CNY, ranking in the 87th percentile over the past three years[12] - Margin financing saw a significant reduction in net outflow, decreasing from 940 billion CNY to 57 billion CNY, representing a 29% percentile over the past three years[12] - The total amount of equity financing was 115 billion CNY, which is at the 45% percentile over the past three years[12] Group 2: Market Trends and Trading Activity - The trading heat for the chemical industry increased by 29 percentage points, while light industry, real estate, semiconductor, and banking sectors saw increases of 15, 12, 11, and 8 percentage points respectively[11] - The net increase in industrial capital was only 8 billion CNY, down from 59 billion CNY, indicating a significant contraction in capital inflows[12] - The total repurchase amount by listed companies was 19 billion CNY, down from 50 billion CNY, placing it at the 55% percentile over the past three years[12] Group 3: Southbound and Northbound Capital Flows - Southbound capital inflow was 219 billion CNY, a decrease from 780 billion CNY, with a strength ranking in the 82nd percentile over the past three years[12] - Northbound capital participation in the A-share market was 5.8%, which is at the 23% percentile over the past three years[12]

上 市 公 司 农林牧渔 2025 年 04 月 21 日 巨星农牧 (603477) ——量价齐升业绩符合预期，关注 25 年出栏增长与成本优化延续 报告原因：有业绩公布需要点评 增持（维持） | 市场数据： | 2025 年 04 月 21 日 | | --- | --- | | 收盘价（元） | 21.82 | | 一年内最高/最低（元） | 37.14/15.48 | | 市净率 | 3.6 | | 股息率%（分红/股价） | - | | 流通 A 股市值（百万元） | 11,130 | | 上证指数/深证成指 | 3,291.43/9,905.53 | | 注："股息率"以最近一年已公布分红计算 | | | 基础数据: | 2024 年 12 月 31 日 | | --- | --- | | 每股净资产（元） | 6.03 | | 资产负债率% | 61.91 | | 总股本/流通 A 股（百万） | 510/510 | | 流通 B 股/H 股（百万） | -/- | 一年内股价与大盘对比走势： 04-22 05-22 06-22 07-22 08-22 09-22 10-22 11-22 12- ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" [5] Core Views - The report highlights a divergence in the data for breeding sows, with a 0.96% decrease in the breeding sow inventory at the end of Q1, marking the end of three consecutive quarters of increase. This indicates a potential shift in production capacity [1][2] - Despite the recent increase in pig prices, the report suggests that the downward trend in prices may be difficult to reverse in the future due to increased supply from rising breeding sow inventories and piglet numbers [1][3] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the official start of production capacity reduction, which could present investment opportunities in companies such as Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group [1][3] Summary by Sections Breeding Sow Inventory - As of the end of Q1, the national breeding sow inventory was reported at 40.39 million heads, a decrease of 390,000 heads or approximately 0.96% from the previous quarter, ending a trend of increases observed from Q2 to Q4 of the previous year [2] - Third-party monitoring data shows mixed results, with some reporting increases while others indicate a decrease, suggesting a more accurate reflection of actual production capacity trends [2] Pig Prices - Post-Spring Festival, pig prices have remained stable, fluctuating between 14.5 to 14.7 yuan per kilogram, with a brief increase to 15 yuan per kilogram around mid-April, which was stronger than market expectations [3] - The report attributes the stability in prices to factors such as low frozen product inventories and increased market demand, although it warns that the overall trend may still be downward due to rising supply [3] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on companies that may benefit from the anticipated changes in production capacity, specifically highlighting Muyuan Foods, Wens Foodstuff Group, Juxing Agriculture, and Shennong Group as key investment opportunities [1][3][8]

Market Overview - In March 2025, China's retail sales (社零) increased by 5.9% year-on-year, exceeding market expectations, with a total retail sales amounting to 4.09 trillion yuan [4][5] - The consumer confidence index in February 2025 was 88.4, marking a continuous increase for three months [4][5] - Online retail channels outperformed overall retail sales, with physical stores showing weaker performance [4] Industry Insights - The sports and leisure goods sector saw a robust year-on-year growth of 25.4% in retail sales for Q1 2025, indicating strong demand resilience [4] - The jewelry sector experienced a significant year-on-year growth of 10.6% in March 2025, with gold prices rising by 37.4% [4][7] - The textile and apparel sector showed a year-on-year growth of 3.6% in March 2025, with online channels expected to underperform compared to offline channels [4][7] Company Analysis Q1 2025 Performance - New Hope Group and other pig farming stocks are recommended due to the anticipated recovery in the pig farming industry, which is expected to enter a profit cycle starting from Q2 2024 [11] - The company "启明星辰" reported a decline in revenue due to weak downstream demand, but is focusing on strategic collaborations with China Mobile to enhance its market position [14][17] - "新和成" achieved a revenue of 21.61 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year increase of 42.95%, driven by strong performance in its nutrition products segment [20][22] Future Projections - "新和成" is projected to achieve revenues of 23.94 billion yuan in 2025, with a growth rate of 10.8% [22] - "启明星辰" expects a net profit growth of 40.9% to 38.8% from 2025 to 2027, supported by expanding its product offerings and market reach [15][18] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on undervalued apparel companies such as 森马服饰 and 锦泓集团, as well as home textile companies benefiting from government subsidies [5] - In the textile manufacturing sector, companies like 华利集团 and 申洲国际 are recommended for their potential market share gains amid changing industry dynamics [7] - The jewelry sector is expected to see a recovery in demand and performance in Q2 2025, with companies like 潮宏基 and 周大生 highlighted for investment [7]

Summary of Conference Call on Shennong Group Company and Industry Overview - The conference call focused on Shennong Group, a player in the pig farming sector within the broader agricultural industry [1][2] - The discussion highlighted the recent report released by Guohai Securities on Shennong Group, coinciding with a rise in the company's stock price [1] Key Points and Arguments Investment Recommendations - The investment recommendation for the pig farming sector is based on three perspectives: fundamentals, market conditions, and capital allocation [2] - The second half of the year is viewed as a favorable time for investment in the pig farming sector, particularly due to expected capacity reductions [2] - Key recommended companies include leading players like Muyuan and Wens, with Shennong and Juxing as secondary recommendations [2] Shennong Group's Competitive Advantages - Shennong Group's expansion strategy is characterized by low costs and low debt, which are seen as significant advantages [3] - The company’s pig output is projected to grow from 1.52 million heads in 2023 to approximately 3.3 million heads by 2025, indicating a growth rate of 51% from 2021 to 2024 [3][4] - The company's cost of production is among the lowest in the industry, with a complete cost of 12.4 RMB per kg expected by February 2025, down from 16 RMB in 2023 [4][10] Financial Health - Shennong Group's debt-to-asset ratio is below 30%, indicating strong financial health [5] - The concentration of output among the top 20 companies in the industry has reached 30%, suggesting a shift in market dynamics [5][16] Market Dynamics and Trends - The pig farming industry is experiencing a trend of weakening profitability, with a potential turning point for capacity reductions expected in the second half of the year [5][16] - The industry has seen a significant increase in concentration due to challenges posed by African swine fever, which has raised barriers to entry [15][16] Operational Insights - Shennong Group's slaughtering operations are profitable and less affected by market price fluctuations, maintaining a steady cash flow [6] - The company’s farming operations are concentrated in Yunnan, Guangxi, and Guangdong, with Yunnan being the core area [7][8] Future Outlook - The company aims to achieve an output of 320,000 to 350,000 heads by the end of 2025, with a focus on a model that increasingly relies on contract farming [8][9] - The cost structure indicates that feed costs, which account for nearly 60% of production costs, may rise in the latter half of the year, but the company is still expected to remain profitable [10] Conclusion - The overall sentiment is that the pig farming sector remains a viable investment opportunity, with Shennong Group positioned favorably due to its low-cost structure and strong financial health [17] - The call concluded with an invitation for further inquiries regarding the report and the company's performance [17]

Core Insights - Sichuan is launching a plan to develop a trillion-level livestock industry, focusing on building strong agricultural industry chains [1][2] - The livestock sector is the largest agricultural industry in Sichuan, with a total output value exceeding 730 billion yuan, making it the most promising area to reach the trillion-level target [2][3] Industry Overview - The livestock industry in Sichuan has a high proportion of large-scale farming, with over 60% of farms having an annual output of more than 500 pigs, leading the nation [3] - Sichuan has nine agricultural industry clusters recognized as national-level advantageous and characteristic industry clusters, with four of them in the livestock sector [3] Challenges and Opportunities - Despite the strong foundation, the livestock industry faces challenges such as a lack of leading enterprises and incomplete deep processing chains, with deep processing of pork accounting for less than 25% of consumption [4] - The plan aims to increase the total output value of the livestock industry chain by 269 billion yuan within 3-5 years, targeting a trillion-level milestone [6] Company Initiatives - Companies like DeKang Agricultural Group are key players in the industry, implementing advanced slaughtering technologies and expanding their operations in Sichuan [5][6] - DeKang Group is also collaborating with local governments to enhance the entire livestock supply chain, including breeding, farming, slaughtering, and processing [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry [1] Core Views - The report highlights the weak fluctuation of pig prices, with expectations of a downward trend in the short term and a long-term weak operation in 2025 due to increased supply and weak demand [4][14] - The poultry sector may see price improvements due to the impact of tariffs and a shortage of quality breeding stock caused by avian influenza [5][28] - The animal health sector is expected to benefit from improved downstream demand and external expansion opportunities, with rising prices for key products like Tylosin [6][41] - The planting sector is experiencing price fluctuations for major grains, with a focus on the commercialization of genetically modified seeds [8][46] - The feed sector is seeing a decline in prices, with recommendations for companies like Haida Group [8][49] - The pet market continues to grow rapidly, with strong performance from domestic brands and recommendations for companies in the pet food and medical sectors [8][54][57] Summary by Sections Pig Industry - Pig prices are expected to adjust slightly, with a forecast of weak performance in 2025 due to increased supply [4][14] - As of April 10, 2025, the average price of live pigs is 14.6 CNY/kg, with no change from the previous week [14] Poultry Industry - The poultry sector may see price increases due to tariff impacts and a lack of quality breeding stock [5][28] - The average price of broiler chickens is 3.75 CNY/lb, reflecting a weekly increase [28] Animal Health - The animal health sector is experiencing improved profitability, with Tylosin prices rising significantly [6][41] - The report suggests focusing on companies with expected external expansion, such as Reap Bio [6] Planting Sector - Major grain prices are fluctuating, with corn priced at 2199 CNY/ton and wheat at 2422 CNY/ton [8][46] - The report recommends companies involved in genetically modified seed development [8] Feed Sector - Feed prices are declining, with pig feed at 3.35 CNY/kg [8][49] - The report suggests focusing on companies like Haida Group due to expected industry consolidation [8] Pet Industry - The pet market is projected to reach 300.2 billion CNY in 2024, with a growth rate of 7.5% [8][54] - Recommendations include companies like Guobao Pet and Zhongchong Co., which are experiencing significant growth [8][57]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Insights - The report highlights the potential for increased planting area due to the approval of the third batch of genetically modified crops, which includes 97 corn and 2 soybean varieties [5][15] - The report indicates that domestic companies focusing on high-yield genetically modified soybeans may benefit from reduced overseas supply due to trade tensions between China and the U.S. [6][17] - The report emphasizes the recovery potential in the pig farming sector, with rising prices supported by increased demand and reduced imports of meat [20][26] Summary by Sections Weekly Observation - The third batch of genetically modified crops has been approved, which is expected to increase the planting area significantly, with projections suggesting that the planting area for genetically modified corn may exceed 5 million acres by 2025 [5][15] - The approval of genetically modified crops aligns with national policies aimed at strengthening food security and promoting agricultural innovation [15][35] Weekly Viewpoint - The pig farming sector shows low valuation and recovery potential, with recommendations for companies such as Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [26] - The pet food market is expected to grow significantly, driven by rising consumer spending and domestic brands gaining market share [29] Market Performance - The agriculture index outperformed the market by 6.38 percentage points, with significant gains in the planting sector [30][33] - Key stocks such as Western Animal Husbandry and Shennong Technology saw substantial increases in their share prices [34] Price Tracking - As of April 11, the average price of live pigs was 14.66 yuan/kg, reflecting a slight increase from the previous week [37] - The average price of beef also saw an increase, reaching 67.21 yuan/kg [43]