Core Viewpoint - The wood processing industry in China is experiencing a decline in export value, with significant year-on-year decreases projected for 2025 [1] Industry Summary - By December 2025, the total export value of the wood processing and related products industry is expected to reach 3.42 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decrease of 11.5% [1] - Cumulatively, the export value for the entire year of 2025 is projected to be 34.75 billion yuan, which represents a year-on-year decline of 7.2% [1] - The data indicates a downward trend in the export performance of the wood processing sector from 2019 to 2025, as illustrated in the statistical chart provided [1] Company Summary - Listed companies in the wood processing sector include: Rabbit Baby (002043), JuLi Culture (002247), Oriental Yuhong (002271), Lopuskin (002333), Lezhi Group (002398), Three Trees (603737), Fashilong (605318), and Sentai Co., Ltd. (301429) [1]

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the construction materials industry, particularly focusing on the demand for consumer building materials and the electronic cloth sector. The demand structure is shifting, with significant growth in the renovation of second-hand homes, indicating potential stability in the industry. The expected transaction area for second-hand homes in 2025 is projected to reach 600-700 million square meters, nearing the scale of the new housing market, suggesting substantial potential in the existing market [1][2]. Key Insights and Arguments - **Supply-Side Dynamics**: The construction materials industry has experienced a supply-side contraction, with most categories seeing a cumulative decline in production and sales of about 30% since 2021, while prices have only dropped by 15%. Leading companies like Oriental Yuhong have consolidated their market positions through economies of scale [1][4]. - **Performance of Leading Companies**: Companies such as Oriental Yuhong, Sankeshu, and others have shown strong performance, emerging from operational lows and demonstrating clear growth inflection points. For instance, Oriental Yuhong is expected to see significant cash flow improvement starting in 2024, with a projected revenue turnaround in Q3 2025 and an anticipated growth of over 30% in 2026 [5][6]. - **Electronic Cloth Market**: The electronic cloth segment is highlighted as having the highest probability of price increases within the fiberglass sector. The year 2026 is anticipated to be a pivotal year for Q cloth applications, with large-scale applications of second-generation cloth expected. Companies like China National Materials possess comprehensive technology that will enhance their performance amid industry upgrades [10][14]. - **Profitability Trends in Fiberglass Industry**: The fiberglass industry is currently at a historical low in unit profitability, with leading companies still profitable while smaller firms struggle. Demand growth is expected to be around 4-5% in 2026, with supply growth below 4%, indicating a potential upward trend in raw sand prices [9]. Additional Important Points - **Investment Opportunities**: The call emphasizes the importance of focusing on companies that have emerged from operational lows and show clear growth potential, particularly in the waterproof materials segment, which is expected to yield better investment returns [7]. - **Market Supply Constraints**: The supply of weaving machines is limited, with the only global supplier, Toyota, experiencing a significant reduction in production efficiency for thin cloth. This constraint is expected to impact the ordinary electronic cloth market, leading to a sustained price increase trend [12][13]. - **Future Projections**: The ordinary electronic cloth market is projected to experience a supply-demand gap in 2026, with inventory levels dropping significantly, indicating a potential for continued price increases. The PCB market is also expected to see slight growth, further supporting price increases in ordinary electronic cloth [11]. - **Recommended Companies**: The call suggests focusing on companies like China National Materials, China Jushi, and International Composites, which are positioned well to benefit from the anticipated market dynamics and price increases [14].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The real estate sector is showing positive signals with recognition of its financial attributes and adjustments to past policies, indicating potential for stronger future policy measures and broader scope [1][4] - Basic data in the real estate sector continues to decline, with investment, new starts, and completions all down year-on-year, while first-tier city housing prices are accelerating downward [1][5] - The construction materials sector is responding to industry downturns by adjusting revenue structures, controlling costs, and exploring overseas markets [1][6] Key Points on Real Estate Policies - Recent policy changes include recognition of real estate as a significant financial market asset, benefiting housing prices, and a shift towards more decisive policy measures rather than incremental adjustments [4] - Rumors of lifting purchase restrictions in cities like Shanghai and promoting new home purchase subsidies are also noteworthy [4] Construction Materials Sector Performance - The construction materials sector is expected to perform strongly in 2026, driven by policy expectations and a high baseline from previous years [3][11] - Despite declining basic data, the marginal negative impact on the construction materials sector is diminishing as new starts decline at a slower rate [5] Specific Industry Developments Waterproof Coatings - The waterproof coatings sector is experiencing increased concentration, with the top three companies holding over 40% market share, and price increases are being observed [7][8] Rainhong Company - Rainhong's future outlook is optimistic, with expected price increases, improved cash flow, and reduced financing costs contributing to a positive trend in gross margin and expense ratio [9] Tile Industry - The tile industry, exemplified by Dongpeng, is expanding during the downturn by enhancing service response through a nationwide warehouse layout, preparing for market stabilization [10][15] Paint Industry - The leading paint company, Sankeshu, is achieving counter-cyclical growth through strategic adjustments and focusing on the C-end retail market, benefiting from policy incentives and a significant renovation market [2][12] Board Industry - The board industry, led by Tubaobao, is seeing price recovery after a decline, with a focus on channel and product service adjustments, and is expected to see growth in ecological board sales [13][14] Recommendations - The construction materials sector, particularly companies in the paint, board, and tile industries, should be closely monitored, with specific attention to leading firms like Sankeshu, Tubaobao, and Dongpeng [11]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight" for both the construction and building materials sectors [6]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of balanced allocation between traditional cyclical building materials and emerging technology growth opportunities, driven by supportive real estate policies aimed at stabilizing the market [1]. - The path for resolving real estate debt is becoming clearer, with significant credit impairment already reflected in the consumption building materials sector, suggesting a narrowing of credit impairment risk exposure [2]. - The decline in real estate construction is expected to slow, with price increases for construction materials continuing, particularly benefiting leading companies in the sector [3]. - The second-hand housing market is showing signs of stabilization, with "stock renovation" expected to be a key theme in 2026, potentially boosting demand for decorative and functional building materials [4]. Summary by Sections Real Estate Policy and Market Outlook - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development is focusing on stabilizing the real estate market through targeted policies, which is expected to accelerate the recovery of the sector [1]. - Data indicates that the real estate market is beginning to stabilize, with some companies showing signs of revenue improvement due to increased market share and expansion into overseas markets [1]. Credit Impairment and Debt Resolution - Vanke's recent bondholder meeting approved a significant extension plan, indicating a rational approach to debt resolution within the industry [2]. - Most building materials companies have already accounted for substantial credit impairments, with many reporting over 50% impairment on specific items [2]. Construction Activity and Material Pricing - Real estate sales, new construction, and completion areas have shown declines of 8.7%, 20.4%, and 18.1% year-on-year, respectively, but the rate of decline is expected to slow [3]. - Leading companies in the sector have begun to implement price increases for construction materials, indicating a potential turning point in the market [3]. Second-Hand Housing Market and Renovation Demand - The retail sales of construction and decoration materials reached 167.1 billion yuan in 2025, reflecting a decline of 2.7% year-on-year, primarily due to high base effects from previous quarters [4]. - The report notes a decrease in the listing volume of second-hand homes, suggesting a tightening supply that could lead to price improvements [4]. Recommended Companies - The report recommends several companies for investment, including: - China Liansu (2128 HK) with a target price of 6.35 yuan - Weixing New Materials (002372 CH) with a target price of 14.34 yuan - Rabbit Baby (002043 CH) with a target price of 16.01 yuan - Beixin Building Materials (000786 CH) with a target price of 29.64 yuan - Dongfang Yuhong (002271 CH) with a target price of 17.19 yuan [7][9].

今日早参 2026 年 1 月 23 日 张继强 研究所所长、固收首席研究员 座机：13910012450 邮箱：zhangjiqiang@htsc.com 仇文竹 固定收益：三个角度尝试增厚收益 随着基金销售新规落地，近期二永债明显修复。往后看，需求端超调压力缓 解，但股市、通胀、利率供给扰动仍存，一季度债市或延续震荡，但也不乏 交易机会。机构行为存在分化，保险开门红分红险销售亮眼，中小保险有拉 久期需求，银行配置摊余成本法信用债专户或带来中长久期信用债配置需 求。理财面临净值化挑战和分红险分流，春节前谨防取现需求规模回落。债 基短期压力缓解，中期仍面临"收益增厚和持有体验"等挑战。信用债 ETF 是机构发展重点，但年前冲量后近期明显回落，成分券超跌。综上，近期建 议继续票息打底，通过波段、品种、杠杆等增厚收益。基金、理财可继续下 沉挖掘 2 年期以内城投债，关注 5 年期二永债波段机会、4 年中高等级骑乘 机会，保险等可逢调整增配 5 年及以上中高等级信用债。 风险提示：股市走强超预期，刺激经济政策超预期。 研报发布日期：2026-01-22 研究员 张继强 SAC:S0570518110002 SFC: ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share building materials sector is experiencing a strong upward trend, with multiple stocks showing active performance, driven by market expectations for a cyclical recovery in the sector [1] Group 1: Policy and Economic Support - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development has released an opinion on improving housing quality, aiming for significant enhancements in housing standards, design, materials, construction, and operation by 2030, which directly benefits the consumption of building materials, waterproofing, and glass sectors [1] - The central bank has lowered various structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points, with the one-year re-lending rate reduced from 1.5% to 1.25%, aimed at promoting stable economic growth and providing liquidity support for the recovery of real estate and infrastructure sectors, indirectly boosting demand in the building materials industry [1] Group 2: Infrastructure and Supply Chain Developments - The issuance of special bonds by local governments has accelerated, with a total issuance scale of 0.18 trillion yuan, an increase of 0.10 trillion yuan year-on-year, easing government fiscal pressure and supporting demand for cement and pipe materials through accelerated municipal engineering and pipeline construction projects [2] - The building materials industry has seen improvements in supply-demand dynamics after five years of capacity clearance, with the waterproofing sector's concentration rapidly increasing, and a significant reduction in floating glass daily melting capacity by 27,200 tons compared to the 2021 peak, alongside a 160 million ton capacity exit in the cement industry, alleviating supply pressures and laying the foundation for profit recovery [2] Group 3: Sector-Specific Benefits - The waterproofing industry is expected to benefit from housing quality improvement policies, the release of renovation demand, and supply-side clearance, with leading companies projected to experience revenue declines significantly lower than the industry average from 2021 to 2024, and further price increases anticipated in 2025 [3] - The glass processing industry is poised to gain from accelerated cold repairs in floating glass production capacity and a balanced supply-demand structure, alongside increased demand for high-end glass driven by housing quality improvements [3] - The pipe and pipeline industry is supported by the rapid implementation of infrastructure projects and municipal pipeline renovation policies, with municipal engineering projects accelerating, directly benefiting related pipe material companies from the recovery in infrastructure demand [3]

Market Performance - The renovation and building materials sector increased by 4.03% compared to the previous trading day, with N国亮 leading the gains [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index closed at 4122.58, up 0.14%, while the Shenzhen Component Index closed at 14327.05, up 0.5% [1] Stock Highlights - N国亮 (code: 920076) saw a significant rise of 160.78%, closing at 28.06 with a trading volume of 161,500 shares and a transaction value of 483 million [1] - 科顺股份 (code: 300737) increased by 20.00%, closing at 6.96 with a trading volume of 1,268,900 shares and a transaction value of 819 million [1] - 万里石 (code: 002785) rose by 9.93%, closing at 43.05 with a trading volume of less than 302,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.288 billion [1] - 东方雨虹 (code: 002271) increased by 8.14%, closing at 17.01 with a trading volume of 947,500 shares and a transaction value of 1.577 billion [1] Capital Flow - The renovation and building materials sector experienced a net inflow of 68.06 million from institutional investors, while retail investors contributed a net inflow of 64.30 million [2] - The sector saw a net outflow of 132 million from speculative funds [2] Individual Stock Capital Flow - 科顺股份 had a net outflow of 50.83 million from institutional investors, while retail investors had a net inflow of 1.72 million [3] - 东方雨虹 experienced a net inflow of 34.78 million from institutional investors, but a net outflow of 51.34 million from retail investors [3] - N国亮 had a net inflow of 11.20 million from institutional investors, with a net outflow of 12.43 million from retail investors [3]

截至2026年1月22日 13:33，中证全指自由现金流指数(932365)上涨0.78%，成分股白银有色上涨10.04%，中国动力上涨5.53%，九丰能源上涨5.18%，兔宝宝 上涨4.58%，中国海油上涨3.93%。自由现金流ETF基金(159233)上涨0.94%， 冲击4连涨。最新价报1.3元。 自由现金流ETF基金（159233）ETF跟踪中证自由现金流指数，相较于传统红利与宽基指数，该指数更聚焦顺周期行业，在主题赛道资金轮动的市场环境 下，可作为底仓配置的工具，助力投资者捕捉经济复苏背景下的结构性机会。 今日盘面上，截止上午收盘，指数涨幅超过1%。近期消息面亦对顺周期板块形成积极支撑： 1.电力设备及新能源板块：AI算力需求持续激增，带动电力需求全面扩容。 当前，AI模型复杂度的提升和应用场景拓展，对算力需求呈指数级增长。据研究机构TrendForce 最新报告显示，2026 年全球 AI 服务器出货量预计同比增长 28.3%，含通用服务器在内的整体服务器市场同比增长 12.8%，两大市场增速均显著快于 2025 年。算力基础设施的高速扩张直接推高数据中心供配电、液冷 散热设备需求，同时催生光伏、 ...

Group 1 - The building materials sector experienced a significant upward trend, with Jinju Group rising over 10% [1] - Dongfang Yuhong saw an increase of more than 7% [1] - Other companies such as China Jushi, Tubao, Beixin Building Materials, and Yaopi Glass also followed the upward trend [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights the performance of the Free Cash Flow ETF (159201), which has seen a 1.01% increase in intraday trading, with significant inflows of over 538 million yuan in the last 10 trading days, marking a new high in its scale at 10.191 billion yuan and 7.931 billion shares [1] - Zheshang Securities predicts that the Chinese economy is expected to achieve a "good start" in 2026, with macro policies returning to normal and focusing on new productive forces [1] - The A-share market has entered a phase of "systematic slow growth," with the Shanghai Composite Index expected to show an "N" shaped trend [1] Group 2 - Investment themes are focused on consumption, technology growth, and high-end manufacturing, while also recognizing the stabilizing role of dividend assets [1] - The Free Cash Flow ETF and its linked funds closely track the National Index of Free Cash Flow, addressing the limitations of traditional dividend strategies by emphasizing financial health and sustainable growth [1] - The fund management fee is set at an annual rate of 0.15%, and the custody fee at 0.05%, both of which are among the lowest in the market, maximizing benefits for investors [1]