Core Insights - The data center industry has become a core incremental application scenario for the power equipment sector, directly driving demand growth and technological iteration in power equipment [1] - The capital expenditure (CapEx) in the data center industry is characterized by large scale, long investment return cycles, and rapid technological iteration, necessitating the incorporation of AI industry multidimensional indicators for accurate demand forecasting [1] Demand Side - Overseas capital expenditure from major companies reached $99.617 billion in Q3 2025, reflecting an 80.39% year-on-year increase and a 9.54% quarter-on-quarter rise [2] - Domestic capital expenditure showed a slowdown, with Alibaba's CapEx at 31.501 billion yuan, an 80.10% year-on-year increase but a 18.55% quarter-on-quarter decrease, while Tencent's CapEx was 12.983 billion yuan, down 24.05% year-on-year and 32.05% quarter-on-quarter [2] Supply Chain - Nvidia reported a record revenue of 362.571 billion yuan in Q3 2025, with data center products accounting for over 85% of total revenue, marking a 62.49% year-on-year increase [2] - TSMC's revenue in November 2025 reached 343.614 billion New Taiwan dollars, a 24.5% year-on-year increase, despite a 6.5% quarter-on-quarter decline [2] - The CPU price index rose to 98.20 in October 2025, while DRAM spot prices surged over 200% from $12.85 to $38.76 between October and December 2025, indicating strong server demand [2] Application Side - The number of AI models is steadily increasing, with the Token call volume on the OpenRouter platform reaching 5.78 trillion, a 6.62% decrease week-on-week [3] - The release of new models such as Grok4Fast and GPT-5nano led to a more than 50% price drop for Tokens scoring over 40 on the ArtificialAnalysis intelligence index in Q3 2025 [3] Investment Recommendations - The construction of AI data centers is expected to drive demand for SST, with an estimated 14 GW of new data center installations globally in 2024, maintaining high growth rates [3] - Recommended stocks include Sunshine Power (300274.SZ), with additional attention to Kehua Data (002335.SZ), Keda Electronics (002518.SZ), Kelu Electronics (002121.SZ), Magmi Tech (002851.SZ), Jinpan Technology (688676.SH), and Sifang Co. (601126.SH) [3]

隔离器在光通信领域的重要性及其市场前景如何？ 隔离器在光通信领域具有重要作用，主要是为了保证光的单向传输，防止反射 光对光源造成损害。随着技术的发展，从 EML 方案推进到硅光方案，对隔离器 的需求和品质要求进一步增加。特别是在北美市场，对光模块稳定性的要求较 高，而隔离器是其中关键部件之一。 当前隔离器市场存在供需紧张的局面，主 要原因在于上游材料如法拉第旋光片和偏振片的供应不足。这些材料大部分由 海外厂商掌控，如住友、Coherent、豪雅和康宁等。由于这些上游厂商扩产 周期较长且保守，导致供货紧张并推动价格上涨。 从价值量来看，一组隔离器 的价值量已经超过 CW 光源，并且未来可能还有涨价空间。因此，我们认为隔 离器赛道在无源器件中具备中长期投资价值，有望成为市场热点。龙头企业如 顺浩股份、东田微等有望受益并走出强劲走势。 英伟达 H200 相比 H20 具有显著性价比优势，吸引阿里巴巴、腾讯等领 先组织。H200 的推出推动了国内外 AI 技术的发展，当前先进的 GPT-5 模型就是基于 H200 进行训练的。 光通信产业链因紧缺程度高、商业格局优越和轻资产模式而表现强劲。 中际旭创和新易盛等龙头公司 ...

Group 1 - The "2025 Hurun Global High-Quality Enterprises TOP 1000" list was released, highlighting global economic trends, with the US leading with 410 companies, followed by China with 158, and Japan with 63 [2] - Nvidia surpassed Microsoft and Apple to become the world's most valuable company, valued at 3.28 trillion RMB, while Apple remains second at 2.86 trillion RMB [2] - Walmart is noted as the highest revenue-generating company on the list, with an annual income of 4.8 trillion RMB, while Alphabet holds the title for the highest profit at 790 billion RMB [2] Group 2 - Shenzhen ranks 11th globally with 15 companies on the list, an increase of 3 from the previous year, with 5 companies located in the Futian District [3] - The Greater Bay Area has 38 companies listed, accounting for 24% of China's total, indicating significant regional economic strength [3] - Notably, 8 non-Chinese companies have established their China headquarters in Shenzhen, ranking fourth among Chinese cities [3] Group 3 - The list reflects the concentration of wealth driven by artificial intelligence, with 11 companies valued at over 1 trillion USD, up from 4 five years ago [4] - The top 10 companies have doubled in value to 18.4 trillion RMB, nearing the total market capitalization of A-shares and H-shares combined [4] - Companies like TSMC and Tencent showed remarkable performance, with TSMC increasing by 410 billion RMB and Tencent by 200 billion RMB [4] Group 4 - Companies experiencing significant value declines include Meituan (down 200 billion RMB) and Shein (down 100 billion RMB), along with others like GF Securities, Mindray Medical, Wanhua Chemical, and Sinopec [5]

台积电逐步扩张CoWoS先进封装产能，今年产能上看7～8万片，比去年3万片规模翻倍成长，2026年则 上看11～12万片，但即便如此，由于产能缺口持续扩大，除封测OSAT厂商接获外溢订单外，甚至连英 特尔EMIB封装制程因成本低良率高，也传吸引CSP业者如Google及Meta评估转单中。 市场忧心台积电CoWoS产能扩张不足，订单遭对手瓜分，程正桦16日出席首席国际"2026年全球半导体 暨AI产业投资展望"说明会对此指出，其实台积电已经投资扩张很积极，与其说CoWoS很缺，不如说N3 先进制程产能很缺，由于NVIDIA、AMD、Google明年新芯片都要用到N3，2026年下半可能N3会是最 缺的时候。 程正桦表示，市场已经在讨论台积电是否将上修明年资本支出，其实多数资本支出都是在N3产能扩张 上，预估会从12万片左右提高到15～16万片，N2准备的产能应该会更多，CoWoS产能扩张属于配套布 局。 而台积电CoWoS产能没有扩张太积极的原因，程正桦认为是Blackwell芯片愈来愈大，圆形晶圆切方芯 片会越来越浪费，若未来改以方形载板可以切更多较为经济，为此台积电正在发展CoPoS技术，现在若 买入过多 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the upcoming IPO wave in the technology sector, particularly focusing on AI and related industries, predicting a significant shift in the market dynamics towards a few leading companies rather than a broad-based IPO market [4][14][22]. Group 1: IPO Market Trends - The IPO market in 2026 is expected to be drastically different, with potentially only one-tenth the number of companies compared to 2021, but with a record fundraising scale of $450-500 billion [21][22]. - In the first three quarters of 2025, only 13 AI expansion-stage companies went public, contributing 87% of the total exit value, indicating a concentration of capital towards a few leading firms [15][16]. - The average exit value for AI companies is 50-100 times that of ordinary companies, highlighting the high growth potential and market interest in these firms [17][19]. Group 2: Key Players in the Market - Major players like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are set to dominate the IPO landscape, with combined valuations reaching $1.65 trillion, significantly surpassing previous records [26][28][42]. - OpenAI, despite substantial losses, has achieved a valuation of $500 billion due to its rapid revenue growth, projected to reach $600 billion by the end of 2026 [30][32]. - SpaceX holds a monopoly in the rocket launch market, planning to raise over $30 billion through its IPO, which could account for more than half of the total global IPO fundraising in 2025 [38][42]. Group 3: China's Technology Sector - China's technology sector is witnessing a collective push towards IPOs, with companies across the entire supply chain, including AI, chips, and robotics, preparing for public offerings [45][61]. - Companies like Yushun Technology and Zhiyuan Robotics are pursuing IPOs, with Yushun expected to submit its application soon, showcasing the market's readiness for innovative technology firms [48][49]. - The storage chip sector is represented by Changjiang Storage and Changxin Storage, both of which are positioned as strategic assets in China's semiconductor landscape, with valuations potentially exceeding one trillion RMB combined [60][61].

与此同时，美联储未来的政策路径也备受市场关注。美东时间12月15日，美联储理事米兰表示，他认为美联储 的政策立场过于紧缩，应该加快降息步伐。美联储"三把手"威廉姆斯称，美联储货币政策目前处于良好位置， 随着就业市场降温，通胀有望趋于缓和。 此外，据报道，美国白宫国家经济委员会主任哈塞特的美联储主席候选人资格遭到了特朗普身边部分高层 人士的反对，一些人担心哈塞特与总统的关系过于密切。 据CME"美联储观察"，截至发稿，美联储明年1月降息25个基点的概率为24.4%，维持利率不变的概率为 75.6%。到明年3月累计降息25个基点的概率为43.5%，维持利率不变的概率为47.5%，累计降息50个基点的概 率为9.0%。 美股"AI交易"全线溃败。 隔夜美股市场，三大指数高开低走，集体收跌，AI基础设施板块全线大跌，CoreWeave暴跌近8%，博通大跌 超5%，甲骨文大跌超2%。多位华尔街分析人士警告称，甲骨文激进的融资行为，使其资产负债率持续走高， 且未来的投资回报存在较大的不确定性。 "AI交易"重挫 美东时间12月15日，美股三大指数高开后集体跳水，截至收盘，道指跌0.09%，标普500指数跌0.16%，纳指 ...

经济观察网 台湾证交所加权股价指数在台北下跌1.2%至27,866.94点。 该指数下跌至12月4日以来最低 收盘水平，前一个交易日上涨0.6%。台积电对指数下跌拖累最大，下跌2.0%。 大同股份有限公司跌幅 最大，下跌10.0%。1,044支股票中443支下跌，508支上涨；28个类股中12个类股走低，以半导体股为 首。 来源：经济观察网 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the AI industry chain, focusing on infrastructure, algorithms, and applications, while providing insights from recent reports by Morgan Stanley and JP Morgan regarding ODM manufacturers' performance and shipment forecasts. ODM Manufacturers' Performance and Shipment Analysis - Morgan Stanley ranks ODM manufacturers for GPU AI servers as Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta [2][18] - Morgan Stanley's latest forecast for GB200/300 rack shipments is adjusted to 27,300 units, down from 28,000 units, primarily due to updates following Quanta's Q3 earnings call [2] - Quanta's management indicates a conservative outlook for AI revenue growth in Q1 2026, leading to a downward adjustment of their Q4 2025 rack shipment forecast from approximately 3,500 to 2,500 units [7] - Despite Quanta's adjustment, Wistron shows strong growth, leading to a slight increase in overall rack shipment forecasts for Q4 2025, from 8,000-8,500 to 13,500-14,000 units [7] Company-Specific Revenue Insights - Quanta reported November revenue of approximately NT$193 billion, with a month-on-month increase of 11% and a year-on-year increase of 36%, driven by GB200/300 rack shipments expected to reach 1,000-1,100 units [13] - Wistron achieved a record revenue of NT$281 billion in November, with a month-on-month increase of 52% and a year-on-year increase of 195%, attributed to significant increases in L10 computing tray shipments [14] - Hon Hai's November GB200 rack shipments remained stable at approximately 2,600 units, with expectations of a decline in December due to year-end holidays, maintaining a forecast of 7,200 units for Q4 2025 [15] 2026 Preliminary Outlook - The forecast for rack shipments in 2026 is challenging, but Morgan Stanley has adjusted its estimate to 70,000-80,000 units, up from 60,000-70,000 units, based on anticipated inventory carryover of approximately 2 million Blackwell chips [17] - Morgan Stanley maintains the ranking of ODM manufacturers as Wistron > Hon Hai > Quanta, noting that actual deliveries may be lower than predicted due to assembly and testing times for L11 racks not being included in the estimates [18]

Market Performance - US stock markets closed lower on December 12, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.51% at 48,458.05 points, the S&P 500 down 1.07% at 6,827.41 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.69% at 23,195.17 points. For the week, the Dow Jones rose 1.05%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell by 0.63% and 1.62%, respectively [1] - European stock indices also experienced slight declines, with the German DAX down 0.41% at 24,196.16 points, the French CAC40 down 0.21% at 8,068.62 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.56% at 9,649.03 points. The DAX rose 0.7% for the week, while the CAC40 and FTSE 100 fell by 0.57% and 0.19%, respectively [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly declined, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.3%. Notable declines included Canadian Solar down over 10%, and iQIYI down over 4%. However, TAL Education and New Oriental saw gains of over 3% and 2%, respectively [1] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 5.1%, with significant declines in major companies: Broadcom down over 11%, Micron Technology down over 6%, and Intel down over 4%. This reflects a broader weakness in the semiconductor sector [2] - Broadcom reported Q4 sales of $18 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, exceeding analyst expectations. However, concerns arose from comments made during the earnings call regarding profit margins and delayed revenue from an OpenAI contract, which is not expected to generate significant income until 2026 [2] AI Infrastructure Developments - Oracle has delayed the completion of data centers for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 due to labor and material shortages. Despite this, Oracle's CEO stated that the construction is progressing well, with over 96,000 NVIDIA AI chips already in place [4] - Oracle's agreement with OpenAI is valued at up to $300 billion, aimed at providing infrastructure for model training and inference [4] Oil Market Trends - International oil prices fell by 4% this week, with WTI crude oil closing at $57.53 per barrel, down 0.12%, and Brent crude at $61.21 per barrel, down 0.11% [6] - Analysts suggest that the recent decline in oil prices is influenced by a potential de-escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased global oil inventories. Saudi Arabia has also reduced the price of its main crude oil to Asia to a five-year low, indicating a supply pressure in the market [8]

Market Performance - US stock markets collectively declined, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average down 0.51% to 48,458.05 points, the S&P 500 down 1.07% to 6,827.41 points, and the Nasdaq down 1.69% to 23,195.17 points [1] - European indices also saw slight declines, with the German DAX down 0.41% to 24,196.16 points, the French CAC40 down 0.21% to 8,068.62 points, and the UK FTSE 100 down 0.56% to 9,649.03 points [1] - Chinese concept stocks mostly fell, with the Nasdaq Golden Dragon China Index down 0.3% [1] Semiconductor Sector - The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index dropped 5.1%, with significant declines in major companies: Broadcom down over 11%, Micron Technology down over 6%, and Intel down over 4% [2] - Broadcom reported Q4 sales of $18 billion, a 28% year-over-year increase, but concerns arose from comments regarding profit margins and delayed revenue from an OpenAI contract [2] AI and Data Center Developments - Oracle postponed the completion of data centers for OpenAI from 2027 to 2028 due to labor and material shortages, despite maintaining an aggressive construction pace [4] - Oracle's CEO stated that the first data center for OpenAI in Texas is progressing well, with over 96,000 NVIDIA AI chips already in place [4] Oil Market Trends - International oil prices fell by 4% this week, with WTI crude oil down 0.12% to $57.53 per barrel and Brent crude down 0.11% to $61.21 per barrel [5][6] - Analysts noted that geopolitical tensions are easing, and supply pressures are increasing, contributing to the decline in oil prices [8]