证券研究报告·行业研究·电力设备与新能源行业 需求超预期，开启26-27年向上新周期 ——碳酸锂专题 电新首席证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 电动车首席证券分析师 ：阮巧燕 执业证书编号：S0600517120002 联系邮箱：ruanqy@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199793 2026年2月26日 请务必阅读正文之后的免责声明部分 1 摘要 注：全文的"预计"若无特别说明，均为东吴证券研究所预测 ◆ 供给：增量供给为非矿、澳矿、国内盐湖，增量多集中于26H2。中性情况下，26年全球锂矿供给214万吨， 新增44万吨，若津巴布韦锂精矿出口恢复低于预期，则实际新增更低；27年262万吨，新增48万吨；28年 303万吨，新增41万吨。其中，26年增量主要来自：国内盐湖新增8.4万吨（麻米措、察尔汗、拉果措）、国 内矿山6.6万吨（枧下窝复产、新疆红柳滩、党坝、加达、湘源矿）、海外盐湖6.9万吨（3Q、Mariana和 CO）、澳矿的7.8万吨（泰利森和皮尔巴拉以及Marion等矿山达产）、非矿11.5万吨（中 ...

Group 1 - The lithium mining sector experienced a significant surge in early trading, with companies like Erkang Pharmaceutical and Keli Yuan hitting the daily limit up, and Yanhai Co. rising by 9.2%, bringing its market value to over 200 billion yuan [1][2] - Sigma Lithium, a leading global lithium producer, saw its stock price increase by nearly 30%, while other companies like Yabo and Chilean Mining Chemical also reported gains of approximately 5% and 4% respectively [2][3] Group 2 - Zimbabwe, the world's fourth-largest lithium producer, announced a suspension of all raw and lithium concentrate exports to enhance mineral regulation and accountability, allowing only companies with valid mining rights and approved processing plants to export [3] - UBS projected a supply shortage in the global lithium carbonate market by 2026, raising its price forecast to $26,000 per ton (approximately 180,000 yuan per ton), indicating the potential for a third price cycle in the lithium market [3]

市场情绪继续低迷，港股上午盘三大指数呈现高开低走行情，恒生科技指数跌幅较大，午间收跌1.65% 刷新近期调整新低，恒生指数、国企指数分别下跌0.39%及1.29%。大型科技股、大金融股(保险、银 行、券商)等权重低迷拖累大市下行，非洲最大锂矿出口国宣布"断供"，锂电池股走势大肆分化，赣锋 锂业、天齐锂业走强，宁德时代、中创新航下挫。另外，机构看好国内内燃机及相关产业链出海，电力 设备股拉升明显，军工股、光通讯概念股部分活跃。(格隆汇) ...

2月26日，隔夜美股三大指数收涨，英伟达财报亮眼，港股三大指数追随亚太股市高开后震荡下挫，截 止午盘，恒生指数跌0.39%报26661.2点，恒生科技指数跌1.65%报5173.65点，国企指数跌1.29%报 8918.15点，红筹指数跌0.6%报4439.45点。 大型科技股中，阿里巴巴跌2.09%，腾讯控股跌0.77%，京东集团跌1.97%，小米集团跌0.17%，网易跌 1.63%，美团跌1.51%，快手跌2.41%，哔哩哔哩跌2.27%；芯片股走弱，华虹半导体跌超5%，上海复旦 跌近3%。大金融股(保险、银行、券商)等权重低迷拖累大市下行，非洲最大锂矿出口国宣布"断供"，锂 电池股走势分化，赣锋锂业、天齐锂业走强，宁德时代、中创新航下挫。另外，机构看好国内内燃机及 相关产业链出海，电力设备股拉升明显，军工股、光通讯概念股部分活跃。 盘面表现：板块涨跌互现 科网股多数走低 科网股整体表现不佳，跌多涨少。快手、阿里巴巴、百度集团等知名科网股纷纷走低，对市场人气形成 一定压制。在科技行业竞争日益激烈的当下，这些企业面临着来自国内外同行的多重挑战，业绩增长压 力凸显，导致股价表现疲软。 锂电池板块先扬后抑 万咖 ...

有色ETF鹏华（159880）业绩比较基准为国证有色金属行业指数收益率，管理人为鹏华基金管理有限公 司，基金经理为闫冬，成立（2021-03-08）以来回报为138.66%，近一个月回报为3.18%。 2月26日，有色ETF鹏华（159880）开盘涨1.30%，报2.416元。有色ETF鹏华（159880）重仓股方面，紫 金矿业开盘涨0.66%，洛阳钼业涨1.19%，北方稀土跌0.12%，华友钴业涨3.39%，中国铝业涨1.63%，赣 锋锂业涨4.44%，云铝股份涨1.08%，山东黄金涨0.00%，中金黄金跌0.60%，天齐锂业涨5.91%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 声明：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文基于第三方数据库自动发布，不代表新浪财经观点，任何在本文 出现的信息均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建议。如有出入请以实际公告为准。如有疑问，请联系 biz@staff.sina.com.cn。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The A-share market experienced fluctuations, with the non-ferrous sector showing mixed performance, particularly influenced by recent geopolitical tensions and policy changes affecting lithium exports from Zimbabwe [1][5][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - As of February 26, the A-share market saw the Shanghai Composite Index retreat, with the non-ferrous ETF Huatai-PineBridge (159652) down by 0.74% [1]. - The non-ferrous ETF's key components showed varied performance, with small metals and lithium stocks leading gains, while major players like Zijin Mining and Luoyang Molybdenum experienced pullbacks [1][2]. Group 2: Lithium Market Impact - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate ban on all lithium ore and concentrate exports, significantly impacting global lithium supply dynamics [5][6]. - This ban is expected to drive lithium prices up, as Zimbabwe accounted for approximately 12% of global lithium production in 2026, with China being a primary importer [6][7]. Group 3: Precious Metals Outlook - Precious metals, including gold and silver, saw price increases due to heightened geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations, with Morgan Stanley projecting gold prices to reach $6,300 per ounce by the end of 2026 [3]. - The recent rise in lithium stocks in the U.S. market reflects the immediate market reaction to Zimbabwe's export ban, with lithium carbonate futures surging over 4% [3][5]. Group 4: Strategic Metal Policies - The trend of resource nationalism is likely to continue, with countries implementing stricter export controls on strategic metals like lithium, cobalt, and nickel, which may lead to further supply disruptions [7]. - Analysts suggest that the recent policy changes in Zimbabwe are part of a broader strategy to enhance local processing capabilities and retain more value from mineral resources [5][6]. Group 5: Investment Opportunities - The non-ferrous sector is viewed as having significant investment potential, driven by macroeconomic factors, supply constraints, and emerging demand from new industries such as AI and renewable energy [8][10]. - The Huatai-PineBridge non-ferrous ETF is highlighted for its comprehensive exposure to various metal sectors, including gold, copper, aluminum, and lithium, making it a favorable investment vehicle [10][12].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the lithium carbonate industry, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [4]. Core Insights - The ban on lithium concentrate exports from Zimbabwe is expected to significantly disrupt global lithium supply in the short term, leading to a strong price performance for lithium [2]. - The report highlights that the tightening supply and continuous inventory depletion in the lithium carbonate market will contribute to a strong price fluctuation [4]. - Key companies recommended for investment include Zangge Mining, Ganfeng Lithium, Tianqi Lithium, Yongxing Materials, and Yahua Group [4]. Summary by Sections - **Supply Dynamics**: Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines announced an immediate suspension of all raw and lithium concentrate exports, which is anticipated to tighten the supply side significantly. In 2025, China is expected to import 1.19 million tons of lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe, translating to a lithium carbonate production of 148,800 tons [4]. - **Market Conditions**: The report notes that from late January to February 2026, lithium carbonate inventory has been declining for five consecutive weeks, with an accelerating depletion rate. The demand recovery post-Chinese New Year is expected to maintain this trend, leading to a strong price outlook for lithium carbonate [4]. - **Future Outlook**: The demand for lithium carbonate is projected to grow rapidly in 2026, driven by the energy storage and power battery sectors. The supply side remains constrained due to previous disruptions in key mining areas and changes in overseas supply [4].

Core Viewpoint - Zimbabwe's Ministry of Mines has announced an immediate suspension of all unprocessed mineral and lithium concentrate exports, significantly impacting the global lithium supply chain [1][5][7]. Group 1: Market Impact - Following the announcement, U.S. lithium producers saw significant stock price increases, with Sigma Lithium rising nearly 30% and Livent up 8% [1]. - In the A-share market, lithium-related stocks were notably active, with companies like Keli Yuan and Jinyuan shares hitting the daily limit, and Salt Lake shares increasing over 8% [3]. - The price of lithium carbonate has surged, with recent contracts reaching 175,960 yuan per ton, reflecting a 4.84% increase [8]. Group 2: Supply Chain Dynamics - Zimbabwe is the fourth largest lithium producer globally and the largest in Africa, with over 90% of its lithium concentrate exported to China [7]. - The suspension of exports is part of a broader trend, as countries like Namibia and Botswana have implemented similar measures, reshaping the global lithium supply chain towards local processing [7]. - By 2025, Zimbabwe's lithium concentrate production is expected to account for 12% of global supply, with China importing 15.5% of its lithium concentrate from Zimbabwe [7]. Group 3: Domestic Industry Response - China's lithium upstream inventory is critically low, with less than 20,000 tons available, which may exacerbate supply shortages due to the export ban [10]. - The ban is expected to create a supply gap of up to 20,000 tons per month, further intensifying the existing supply-demand imbalance in the lithium market [11]. - The situation may lead to a short-term increase in lithium prices, benefiting domestic lithium companies and prompting them to accelerate overseas mining investments [13]. Group 4: Beneficiary Companies - Huayou Cobalt holds a 51% stake in Zimbabwe's Arcadia lithium mine, with a lithium carbonate equivalent of 245,000 tons, and is developing a processing plant [14]. - Zhongkuang Resources fully controls Zimbabwe's Bikita lithium mine, which is the largest operational lithium mine in Africa, with a high lithium oxide grade [14]. - Tianqi Lithium has full control over the Talison lithium mine, ensuring a self-sufficient resource rate and benefiting from rising lithium prices [14]. - Ganfeng Lithium, a global leader in the lithium industry, has a diversified resource layout and is well-positioned to avoid risks from Zimbabwe's export ban [15].

2月26日，港股市场早盘延续反弹。 截至发稿，恒生指数开盘报27019.74点，上涨254.02点，涨幅0.95%。 恒生科技指数开盘报5284.51点，上涨24.01点，涨幅0.46%。 携程集团-S（HK09961）公布财报，2025全年归母净利润332.94亿元，同比上升95.08%。 先声药业(HK02096)：2025财年收入约77亿元至78亿元，同比增约16.0%至17.6%。2025年财政年度将录 得归属于本公司权益股东的利润约13亿元至14亿元，同比增长80.1%至93.9%。 兖煤澳大利亚(HK03668)公布财报，2025年收入为59.49亿澳元，同比减少约13%；净利润4.4亿澳元，同 比减少约64%。期内自产煤的整体平均售价176澳元/吨，同比下降17%。可销售证实煤炭储量及可能煤 炭储量6.4亿吨，同比减少5.9%。受业绩下滑影响，早间该公司一度跌超10%。 其他方面，盘面上，科网股涨多跌少，联想、腾讯涨超1%，网易跌超1%。内房股活跃，越秀地产涨超 2%。锂电池板块部分高开，天齐锂业涨超6%。汽车股分化，比亚迪股份高开近1%。 后市展望： 中银国际认为，当前防范地产及相关风险仍是首 ...

Core Viewpoint - The lithium mining sector is experiencing significant upward movement, with various companies seeing substantial stock price increases, particularly following policy changes in Zimbabwe that affect lithium exports [1][4]. Group 1: Market Performance - Lithium concept stocks opened strongly, with Erkang Pharmaceutical hitting a 20% limit up, and companies like Keli Yuan and Jinyuan shares also reaching their limit up [1][4]. - Salt Lake Co., Ltd. (000792) saw a price increase of 9.2%, bringing its market capitalization to over 200 billion yuan [1][4]. - Other companies such as Rongjie Co. and Tianqi Lithium also experienced stock price increases [1][4]. Group 2: External Market Influences - Global lithium producers like Sigma Lithium saw stock prices rise nearly 30%, while other companies like Yabao and Chilean Mining Chemical also reported gains of approximately 5% and 4% respectively [5][6]. - On February 25, Zimbabwe announced a suspension of all raw and lithium concentrate exports to enhance mineral regulation and accountability, impacting the global supply chain [3][6]. - UBS projected a supply shortage in the global lithium carbonate market by 2026, raising the price forecast to $26,000 per ton (approximately 180,000 yuan per ton) [3][7].