消息面上，现货黄金回调后筑底反弹，日内涨幅扩大至4%，报4844.07美元/盎司。 截至2026年2月3日 09:36，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)上涨0.40%，成分股中钨高新上涨5.04%，湖 南黄金上涨4.50%，盛屯矿业上涨3.99%，电投能源上涨3.37%，华钰矿业上涨3.32%。有色ETF鹏华 (159880)上涨3.32%，最新价报2.21元。 数据显示，截至2026年1月30日，国证有色金属行业指数(399395)前十大权重股分别为紫金矿业、洛阳 钼业、北方稀土、中国铝业、华友钴业、中金黄金、山东黄金、兴业银锡、赣锋锂业、云铝股份，前十 大权重股合计占比49.87%。 华金证券指出，有色金属等前期涨幅较大的周期板块短期调整压力释放， 但难持续。 一是近期 A 股有 色金属等板块涨幅较大， 当前更多是修复前期过快上涨后的短期回调。 二是美元信用回落叠加战略资 源储备需求和 AI 驱动的需求上升导致有色金属难持续调整。 有色ETF鹏华紧密跟踪国证有色金属行业指数，国证有色金属行业指数参照国证行业分类标准，选取归 属于有色金属行业的规模和流动性突出的50只证券作为样本，反映了沪深北交易所有色 ...

格隆汇1月21日丨世盟股份(002128.SZ)公布，发行人与保荐人（主承销商）根据初步询价结果情况并综 合考虑剩余报价及拟申购数量、有效认购倍数、发行人基本面及所处行业、市场情况、同行业上市公司 估值水平、募集资金需求及承销风险等因素，协商确定本次发行价格为28.00元/股，网下发行不再进行 累计投标询价。 投资者请按此价格在2026年1月23日（T日）进行网上和网下申购，申购时无需缴付申购资金。其中， 网下申购时间为9:30-15:00，网上申购时间为9:15-11:30，13:00-15:00。 ...

投资者请按此价格在2026年1月23日（T日）进行网上和网下申购，申购时无需缴付申购资金。其中， 网下申购时间为9:30-15:00，网上申购时间为9:15-11:30，13:00-15:00。 格隆汇1月21日丨世盟股份(002128.SZ)公布，发行人与保荐人（主承销商）根据初步询价结果情况并综 合考虑剩余报价及拟申购数量、有效认购倍数、发行人基本面及所处行业、市场情况、同行业上市公司 估值水平、募集资金需求及承销风险等因素，协商确定本次发行价格为28.00元/股，网下发行不再进行 累计投标询价。 ...

Group 1 - The coal stocks in the A-share market experienced a collective decline, with Daya Energy hitting the daily limit down and Shaanxi Black Cat dropping over 8% [1] - Other companies such as Baotailong, China Coal Energy, and Meijin Energy fell more than 7%, while Shanxi Coking Coal, Yunmei Energy, and several others dropped over 6% [1] - The overall trend indicates a significant downturn in the coal sector, affecting multiple companies with varying degrees of decline [1] Group 2 - Daya Energy saw a decrease of 9.91% with a total market value of 15.9 billion [2] - Shaanxi Black Cat declined by 8.73%, holding a market capitalization of 8.538 billion [2] - Baotailong's stock fell by 7.99%, with a market value of 6.398 billion [2] - China Coal Energy dropped by 7.68%, with a market capitalization of 167.5 billion [2] - Meijin Energy decreased by 7.31%, valued at 20.7 billion [2] - Shanxi Coking Coal fell by 6.98%, with a market value of 38.6 billion [2] - Yunmei Energy declined by 6.72%, holding a market capitalization of 4.773 billion [2] - Other companies such as Electric Power Investment Energy, Zhengzhou Coal Electricity, and Shaanxi Coal Industry also reported declines ranging from 5.21% to 6.40% [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In January, the Shanghai aluminum futures showed an upward trend with significant fluctuations, driven by macro - factors and capital resonance. The alumina futures had a wide - range volatile trend affected by the chemical sector and supply - side production cuts. The cast aluminum alloy futures moved in tandem with Shanghai aluminum [6][9][12]. - In 2025, the alumina supply was loose, and it is expected to remain so in 2026. The electrolytic aluminum supply - demand situation worsened in 2025 but is expected to shift from oversupply to undersupply in 2026. The recycled aluminum alloy maintained a balanced pattern in 2025 and is expected to continue a tight - balance situation in 2026 [95][96]. - In February 2026, the aluminum price is expected to decline first and then rise, with the Shanghai aluminum price mainly ranging from 22,000 to 25,000. Alumina will continue to bottom - out, and the recommended strategy is to short on rallies, with the price mainly ranging from 2,200 to 2,900. The cast aluminum alloy price will be mainly in the range of 21,000 - 24,000 [100]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Review - **Aluminum**: Since January, the Shanghai aluminum futures oscillated upward, with several sharp increases followed by consolidation, and a significant decline on the last trading day of the month affected by the precious metals market. Macro - factors and capital resonance were the main driving forces [6]. - **Alumina**: Since January, the alumina futures first rose, then fell, and then rebounded, showing a wide - range volatile trend, influenced by the active chemical sector and minor supply - side production cuts [9]. - **Cast Aluminum Alloy**: Since its listing in June, the cast aluminum alloy futures showed an oscillating upward trend, generally in sync with the Shanghai aluminum futures [12]. 3.2 Upstream of the Industrial Chain - **Bauxite**: In 2025, China's bauxite imports increased by 17.1% year - on - year, with imports from Guinea up 38%. The domestic bauxite production decreased by 7.86% year - on - year. The external dependence on bauxite is expected to exceed 75% in 2026 [17]. - **Alumina**: In 2025, China's alumina exports increased by 42.7% year - on - year, and imports in November increased by 134.11% year - on - year. The production increased, and with new capacity coming online, it is expected to grow by about 5% in 2026. As of January 16, 2026, the total alumina inventory increased by 36.5% compared with the same period in 2025 [21][23][27]. 3.3 Middle - stream of the Industrial Chain - **Primary Aluminum Import**: In November 2025, domestic primary aluminum imports decreased by 40.8% month - on - month and 2.5% year - on - year. From 2024 to now, imports have increased significantly, and it is expected to remain at a high level in the future [32]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Capacity**: The total electrolytic aluminum capacity is stable with a slight increase. The in - production capacity has been increasing since 2024. In 2025, it maintained a high - level operation. In 2026, 1.78 million tons of capacity is planned to be cut, and 2.414 million tons of new capacity is to be released [36]. - **Electrolytic Aluminum Production**: In December 2025, electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3% year - on - year, and the annual production increased by 2.4% year - on - year. In December, the downstream开工率 decreased, and the aluminum - water ratio dropped [39]. - **Aluminum Plant Profits**: Since 2025, aluminum plant profits have increased significantly. As of January 19, 2026, the immediate profit of self - power - supplied aluminum plants and grid - powered aluminum plants has exceeded the 2023 - 2024 level [43]. - **Aluminum Ingot Social Inventory**: The annual inventory level has been decreasing in recent years. In 2026, it is expected to have two periods of inventory accumulation during the off - season, with the annual high point after the Spring Festival [46]. 3.4 Downstream of the Industrial Chain - **Aluminum Processing Industry**: Since 2023, the aluminum processing industry has had a low operating rate. Currently, it is in the off - season, and the operating rate of each segment has decreased month - on - month [52]. - **Aluminum Alloy Import and Export**: In November 2025, the import of unforged aluminum alloy decreased by 28.2% year - on - year and 4.1% month - on - month, while the export increased by 51.6% year - on - year and decreased by 1.1% month - on - month [55]. - **Recycled Aluminum Alloy Production**: The production of recycled aluminum alloy has been increasing year by year. From January to October 2025, the cumulative production increased by 23.55% year - on - year [59]. - **Aluminum Alloy Product Inventory**: Since 2025, the aluminum alloy ingot inventory has been accumulating, especially during the off - season, and it is expected to continue rising in the short term [62]. - **Aluminum Product Export**: In 2025, the cumulative export of unforged aluminum and aluminum products decreased by 8.0% year - on - year. Due to trade barriers, it is expected to continue to decline in 2026 [66]. 3.5 Terminal of the Industrial Chain - **Real Estate Industry**: In 2025, the real estate market was in a deep adjustment period, with investment, new construction, and sales all declining. It is expected to take time to recover [72][75]. - **New Energy Vehicles**: In 2025, the production and sales of new energy vehicles increased significantly. However, the growth rate is expected to slow down to 15 - 20% in 2026 [78]. - **Three Major Home Appliances**: In 2025, the production of three major home appliances showed a slow - down in growth. It is expected to maintain positive growth in 2026 with policy support [82]. - **Power Grid Investment**: In 2025, the power grid investment increased by 5.93% year - on - year. In 2026, the UHV construction is expected to continue to develop rapidly [85]. - **Photovoltaic Industry**: In 2025, the photovoltaic industry had a high - speed development, but there was over - capacity. In 2026, the industry will face resource integration, and the global new photovoltaic installation is expected to reach 665GW [89]. - **Recycled Aluminum Import**: In 2025, the import of scrap aluminum increased significantly. It is expected that the tight supply of scrap aluminum will continue [92].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several coal companies, including China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal and Electricity, and Xinji Energy, while recommending "Hold" for Pingmei Shenma [8][9]. Core Insights - The coal market is expected to focus on overseas opportunities rather than domestic ones, with potential "black swan" events in the international market that could significantly impact coal prices [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of companies with overseas operations, specifically China Qinfa (Indonesia), Power Development (South Africa), and Yancoal Australia (Australia) [1]. - The report highlights that the coal price is expected to remain volatile, driven by pre-holiday stockpiling and tightening supply as the Chinese New Year approaches [10][34]. Summary by Sections Market Overview - The CITIC Coal Index rose to 3892.74 points, an increase of 3.98%, outperforming the CSI 300 Index by 3.90 percentage points [69]. - China Qinfa's market capitalization reached a historical high of 10.6 billion HKD, reflecting strong market sentiment [1]. Coal Price Trends - As of January 30, 2026, the price of thermal coal at North Port was 695 CNY/ton, up by 4 CNY/ton week-on-week [34]. - The report notes that coal prices are expected to stabilize as supply tightens and demand fluctuates due to the upcoming holiday [34]. Focus on Key Companies - The report recommends focusing on companies like China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Xinji Energy, which are expected to perform well due to their strong fundamentals [9]. - Companies like China Qinfa, which are expanding overseas, are highlighted as having significant growth potential [1][9]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that coal supply is tightening as some mines halt production for the holiday, while demand is supported by pre-holiday stockpiling [10][34]. - The report also mentions that the inventory levels at major ports are decreasing, which could support price stability [14]. Future Outlook - The report suggests that the coal industry will continue to play a crucial role in China's energy landscape, with a focus on high-quality development amid structural reforms [34]. - Long-term prospects for the coal sector remain positive, with expectations of increased concentration and stability in supply-demand dynamics [34].

证券研究报告 | 朝闻国盛 gszqdatemark 2026 02 02 年 月 日 朝闻国盛 美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点 今日概览 ◼ 重磅研报 【宏观】美联储迎来沃什，4 大关键点——20260201 【宏观】物价回升如何影响税收收入？—2025 年财政回顾与 2026 年展 望——20260131 【宏观】1 月 PMI 超季节性回落的背后——20260131 【策略】月度高胜率窗口的经验与应对——20260201 【海外】优选地产、大宗和科技——2026 年 2 月海外金股推荐—— 20260131 【金融工程】短期调整不足为惧——20260201 【金融工程】择时雷达六面图：本周拥挤度指标明显弱化——20260131 【固定收益】联储换帅、市场波动与债市逻辑——20260201 【固定收益】赎纯债、降久期、增信用——债基 2025Q4 季报分析—— 20260201 【固定收益】资金平稳跨月，存单偿还地方债放量——流动性和机构行 为跟踪——20260131 【固定收益】固收+继续扩张，增配科技化工——25Q4 基金转债持仓分 析——20260131 【电新】低轨星座竞赛与太空算力革命，引爆太空光 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report emphasizes that the price of thermal coal is influenced by supply constraints and increasing demand due to seasonal factors, while coking coal prices are more market-driven [4][5] Summary by Relevant Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal prices are expected to rise through a four-step process: repairing central and local long-term contracts, reaching the coal-electricity profit-sharing line, and approaching the breakeven point for power plants, estimated at around 750 RMB per ton for 2025 [4][15] - Coking coal prices are determined by supply and demand fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. Key stocks to consider include: - Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业, 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal - Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, 陕西煤业 - Diversification and growth logic: 神火股份, 电投能源, 新集能源, 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points [10][25] - As of January 30, the price of Qin港 Q5500 thermal coal was 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase of 7 RMB from the previous period [21] - The report notes a significant drop in coal inventory at ports, indicating tightening supply conditions [21][23]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal prices are expected to rebound, with a focus on the cyclical elasticity of both thermal coal and coking coal prices, which are currently at historical lows, providing room for recovery [5][15] - The report outlines a four-step process for the upward movement of thermal coal prices, including the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven point for coal and power companies [4][15] - The report emphasizes that the overall investment logic remains unchanged, driven by a dual influence of tightening supply and increasing demand, particularly during the heating season [3][4] Summary by Sections Investment Logic - Thermal coal and coking coal prices are at a turning point, with thermal coal being a policy-driven commodity. The price recovery is expected to follow a specific process involving the restoration of long-term contracts and reaching a breakeven price of around 750 RMB per ton [4][15] - Coking coal prices are more influenced by market fundamentals, with target prices based on the ratio of coking coal to thermal coal prices, indicating potential target prices of 1608 RMB to 2064 RMB depending on thermal coal price movements [4][15] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a dual logic for coal stocks: cyclical elasticity and stable dividends. It identifies four main lines for stock selection: 1. Cyclical logic: Jin控煤业 and 兖矿能源 for thermal coal; 平煤股份, 淮北矿业, and 潞安环能 for metallurgical coal 2. Dividend logic: 中国神华, 中煤能源, and 陕西煤业 3. Diversified aluminum elasticity: 神火股份 and 电投能源 4. Growth logic: 新集能源 and 广汇能源 [5][16] Key Market Indicators - The coal index increased by 3.68%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index by 3.6 percentage points, with notable gains from companies like 盘江股份 and 山西焦化 [10][25] - The report provides various market indicators, including port prices for thermal coal at 692 RMB per ton, reflecting a slight increase, and coking coal prices remaining stable at 1800 RMB per ton [21][23]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that macroeconomic fluctuations are intensifying, leading to potential price adjustments for copper and aluminum. The copper prices may experience volatility due to a strong dollar and profit-taking by long positions in the market. Meanwhile, aluminum prices are also expected to face similar adjustments due to macroeconomic pressures [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Overview - The macroeconomic environment is characterized by the Federal Reserve's decision to maintain interest rates at 3.75% during its January meeting, with Kevin Warsh nominated as the next Fed Chair, viewed as a hawkish choice [9]. - Initial jobless claims in the U.S. exceeded expectations, indicating potential economic challenges [9]. 2. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector outperformed the Shanghai Composite Index, with a weekly increase of 3.37%, while the index itself fell by 0.44% [11]. - The sector ranked fourth among all sectors in terms of performance, with notable movements in gold, copper, and tungsten [11]. 3. Price and Inventory Changes - Copper prices saw an increase of 3.54% in London and 2.31% in Shanghai, while aluminum prices fluctuated with a 4.89% increase in Shanghai but a 1.39% decrease in London [22][36]. - Inventory levels for copper and aluminum showed mixed trends, with copper inventories increasing and aluminum inventories showing both increases and decreases across different markets [22][36]. 4. Specific Metal Insights - **Copper**: The report notes a potential shift from a tight balance to a shortage in the copper supply-demand landscape, driven by insufficient capital expenditure in copper mining and frequent supply disruptions [5]. - **Aluminum**: The aluminum market is expected to face a supply surplus in the short term, but with stable demand growth, a potential shortage may arise later in the year [5]. - **Lithium**: Despite a seasonal downturn, lithium demand remains strong, with a reversal in supply-demand dynamics expected to drive prices upward [5]. - **Cobalt**: The cobalt market is experiencing tight supply conditions, with prices expected to continue rising due to structural constraints [5]. 5. Recommendations - The report suggests monitoring specific companies within the sector, including Zijin Mining, Jiangxi Copper, and Ganfeng Lithium, which are positioned to benefit from the anticipated market dynamics [5].