Core Viewpoint - The recent US-China economic and trade discussions in Kuala Lumpur have provided a buffer period that is beneficial for exports, contributing to a significant rebound in Hong Kong stocks after the A-share market closed [3]. Market Overview - The A-share market experienced a collective decline, with the Shanghai Composite Index falling below the 4000-point mark, closing down 0.73%. The Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index dropped 1.16% and 1.84%, respectively. The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 24.217 trillion yuan, an increase of 165.6 billion yuan from the previous day [4]. - The market saw 1242 stocks rise and 4100 stocks fall, with a median decline of 1.25% in individual stock performance [4]. Technical Analysis - The Shanghai Composite Index has shown a significant upward movement, breaking through the resistance zone of 4000-4184 points, which is considered an important pressure level. The index is expected to oscillate within the range of 3950-4100 points [5][6]. - The recent market behavior indicates a potential for a pullback to fill the gap created on Monday, with the lower edge of the gap at 3950 points [4]. Sector Performance - The technology sector, particularly AI hardware stocks, has shown signs of adjustment, with core stocks experiencing high volatility. Other traditional sectors, such as nuclear construction and aluminum, have shown stronger performance [8][10]. - Institutional investors' holdings in the technology sector have surpassed 40%, indicating a high level of investment interest, although this is still below the peak levels seen during previous market waves [9]. Investment Strategy - Given the current market conditions, it is advised to avoid blindly chasing high-performing AI hardware stocks. Instead, investors should look for opportunities to enter during significant price corrections, focusing on short-term strategies [10][11]. - The steel sector has shown a 1.32% increase, which historically signals the potential end of a market phase. This trend warrants close observation [11].

Core Viewpoint - Yiqiu Resources is a leading global producer of aluminum alloy ingots (recycled aluminum) with a complete recycling aluminum industry chain, established in 2001 and listed in 2012 [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Yiqiu Resources reported revenue of 5.595 billion, ranking 17th among 31 companies in the industry, while the top company, China Aluminum, achieved revenue of 176.516 billion [2] - The net profit for the same period was 97.5154 million, placing the company 19th in the industry, with the leading company, China Aluminum, reporting a net profit of 17.296 billion [2] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Yiqiu Resources had a debt-to-asset ratio of 27.11%, down from 29.76% year-on-year and below the industry average of 46.20%, indicating strong solvency [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 6.26%, an increase from 5.83% year-on-year but still below the industry average of 10.69%, suggesting room for improvement in profitability [3] Group 3: Executive Compensation - Chairman Huang Chongsheng's compensation for 2024 was 1.3999 million, a decrease of 110,200 from 2023, while General Manager Liu Kaimin's compensation increased to 842,500, up by 56,000 from the previous year [4] Group 4: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders increased by 12.27% to 80,100, while the average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder decreased by 10.93% to 27,500 [5]

Core Insights - The company reported a 21% year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders for the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 176.516 billion yuan, a 1.57% increase year-on-year [1] - The significant growth in net profit is attributed to the increase in both volume and price in the primary aluminum segment, with the average domestic spot price of electrolytic aluminum at 20,500 yuan per ton, up 3.78% year-on-year [1] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a gross profit margin of 17.31%, an increase of 2.08 percentage points year-on-year, and a net profit margin of 9.80%, up 1.15 percentage points year-on-year [2] - In the third quarter alone, the gross profit margin was 18.37%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 6.70 percentage points, while the net profit margin was 10.31%, up 4.39 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The company effectively managed its expenses, with a total expense ratio of 4.58%, down 0.21 percentage points year-on-year [2] Production Metrics - The company’s primary aluminum production increased by nearly 7% year-on-year in the first three quarters of 2025, with metallurgical-grade alumina production at 13.04 million tons, a 3.74% increase year-on-year [3] - In the third quarter, the company produced 2.03 million tons of primary aluminum, a 2.0% increase year-on-year, while coal production was 3.24 million tons, down 3.6% year-on-year [3] - The steady growth in core product output has provided a solid foundation for the company's performance, despite adjustments in sales volume during periods of declining alumina prices [3]

Core Viewpoint - The National Index of Free Cash Flow has decreased by 0.25% as of October 31, 2025, with mixed performance among constituent stocks, highlighting potential investment opportunities in the ETF market [3]. Group 1: ETF Performance - The Free Cash Flow ETF (159201) has seen a 22.97% increase in net value over the past six months as of October 30, 2025 [4]. - The ETF achieved a maximum monthly return of 7% since its inception, with the longest streak of monthly gains being five months and a total increase of 18.05% [4]. - The ETF has a monthly profit percentage of 85.71% and a historical six-month holding profit probability of 100% [4]. - The maximum drawdown over the past six months is 3.65%, which is the smallest among comparable funds [4]. - The management fee for the ETF is 0.15%, and the custody fee is 0.05%, both of which are the lowest in its category [4]. - The tracking error over the past three months is 0.059%, indicating the highest tracking precision among comparable funds [4]. Group 2: Fund Flows and Liquidity - The Free Cash Flow ETF has experienced continuous net inflows over the past 13 days, totaling 637 million yuan [3]. - The ETF's latest share count reached 4.4 billion, marking a new high since its inception and ranking first among comparable funds [3]. - The total scale of the ETF has reached 5.196 billion yuan, also a new high since inception [3]. - The ETF recorded a turnover rate of 6.07% during the trading session, with a transaction volume of 315 million yuan [3]. Group 3: Top Holdings - As of September 30, 2025, the top ten weighted stocks in the National Index of Free Cash Flow include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, SAIC Motor, Wuliangye Yibin, Gree Electric Appliances, and others, collectively accounting for 54.91% of the index [5].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 14.85 CNY based on a 2026 PE valuation of 11 times [3][5]. Core Insights - The company is expected to benefit from a decrease in raw material costs, particularly in aluminum ore, leading to improved profitability in the coming years [2][8]. - The company is actively progressing on key projects aimed at enhancing its integrated aluminum industry layout, which is anticipated to support future growth [8]. - The report forecasts significant growth in earnings per share (EPS) from 1.05 CNY in 2025 to 1.51 CNY in 2027, reflecting a positive outlook for the company's financial performance [3][10]. Financial Performance Summary - Revenue is projected to decline from 28,975 million CNY in 2023 to 28,089 million CNY in 2024, before rebounding to 35,253 million CNY in 2025, representing a growth of 25.5% [4][10]. - Operating profit is expected to increase significantly from 2,642 million CNY in 2023 to 5,506 million CNY in 2025, with a notable growth rate of 97.6% in 2024 [4][10]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise from 2,205 million CNY in 2023 to 4,901 million CNY in 2025, with a growth of 102.0% in 2024 [4][10]. - The gross margin is expected to improve from 14.1% in 2023 to 23.3% in 2027, indicating enhanced profitability [4][10]. Market Performance - The company's stock has shown strong performance, with a 70.32% increase over the past 12 months [6]. - The stock price as of October 29, 2025, was 13.8 CNY, with a 52-week high of 13.9 CNY and a low of 6.48 CNY [5].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][33] Core Views - The company achieved a year-on-year net profit growth of 21% in the first three quarters of 2025, with revenue reaching 176.516 billion yuan, a 1.57% increase year-on-year. The net profit attributable to shareholders was 10.872 billion yuan, up 20.65% year-on-year, and the net profit after deducting non-recurring gains and losses was 10.716 billion yuan, an increase of 23.03% year-on-year [1][9] - The company's profitability has steadily improved, with a gross margin of 17.31% and a net margin of 9.80% in the first three quarters of 2025, reflecting an increase of 2.08 percentage points and 1.15 percentage points year-on-year, respectively [2][12] - The production of primary aluminum (including alloys) increased by 6.76% year-on-year to 6 million tons in the first three quarters of 2025, contributing to the strong performance of the company [3][30] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, the company reported revenue of 60.124 billion yuan, a decrease of 4.66% year-on-year, but a net profit of 3.801 billion yuan, which is a significant increase of 90.31% year-on-year [1][9] - The company’s revenue for 2025 is projected to be 270.580 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 14.1%, and the net profit is expected to reach 14.790 billion yuan, reflecting a growth rate of 19.3% [4][5][33] Production and Operations - The company produced 13.04 million tons of metallurgical-grade alumina in the first three quarters of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 3.74%, and the external sales of self-produced metallurgical alumina reached 4.91 million tons, up 2.94% year-on-year [3][30] - The company’s coal production was 9.85 million tons, showing a slight increase of 1.13% year-on-year, indicating stable operational performance across its core business segments [3][30] Profitability and Efficiency - The company has effectively controlled its operating expenses, with a total expense ratio of 4.58%, down 0.21 percentage points year-on-year, demonstrating improved cost management [2][12] - The asset-liability ratio as of September 2025 was 46.38%, a decrease of 1.73 percentage points from the end of 2024, indicating a strengthening balance sheet [2][12]

Core Viewpoint - Yun Aluminum Co., Ltd. is a leading green aluminum supplier in China, with a complete industrial chain that includes bauxite mining, alumina production, aluminum smelting, and aluminum processing [1] Group 1: Business Performance - In Q3 2025, Yun Aluminum achieved a revenue of 44.072 billion yuan, ranking third among 31 companies in the industry [2] - The net profit for the same period was 5.22 billion yuan, placing the company second in the industry [2] - The company reported a year-on-year revenue growth of 12.47% and a net profit growth of 15.14% for the first three quarters of 2025 [5][6] Group 2: Financial Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Yun Aluminum's debt-to-asset ratio was 23.21%, lower than the industry average of 46.20% [3] - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 15.39%, exceeding the industry average of 10.69% [3] Group 3: Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 8.51% to 79,100 [5] - The average number of circulating A-shares held per shareholder increased by 9.30% to 43,900 [5] Group 4: Management and Compensation - The chairman, Ji Shujun, received a salary of 629,400 yuan in 2023 [4] - The company is controlled by China Aluminum Corporation, with the actual controller being the State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission of the State Council [4] Group 5: Future Outlook - The company plans to invest 500 million yuan for a 16.70% stake in Yunnan Aluminum Foil Company, extending its industrial chain [5] - Earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 1.87, 2.13, and 2.38 yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 13, 11, and 10 times [5]

Core Viewpoint - Tianshan Aluminum is a leading integrated aluminum manufacturer in China, with strong cost control capabilities and a complete aluminum industry chain, achieving significant revenue and profit growth in recent quarters [1][2][5]. Financial Performance - In Q3 2025, Tianshan Aluminum achieved a revenue of 22.321 billion yuan, ranking 7th in the industry, surpassing the industry average of 16.562 billion yuan [2]. - The net profit for the same period was 3.341 billion yuan, ranking 5th in the industry, also above the industry average of 1.346 billion yuan [2]. Profitability and Debt Ratios - As of Q3 2025, Tianshan Aluminum's debt-to-asset ratio was 48.10%, down from 54.93% year-on-year, which is higher than the industry average of 46.20% [3]. - The gross profit margin for Q3 2025 was 22.42%, slightly up from 22.06% year-on-year, significantly higher than the industry average of 10.69% [3]. Shareholder Information - As of September 30, 2025, the number of A-share shareholders decreased by 23.85% to 37,800, while the average number of shares held per shareholder increased by 31.32% to 109,200 [5]. - Hong Kong Central Clearing Limited was the seventh largest shareholder, increasing its holdings by 18.5447 million shares [5]. Business Highlights - The increase in aluminum prices has positively impacted the company's performance, benefiting from a complete vertical integration of the aluminum industry chain [5][6]. - The electrolytic aluminum capacity is set to increase from 1.2 million tons to 1.4 million tons, with projects progressing smoothly [5][6]. - The company has secured upstream resources in Guinea, Guangxi, and Indonesia, ensuring a stable and low-cost supply of raw materials [5]. Future Profit Projections - Tianshan Aluminum's projected net profits for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 4.818 billion, 6.868 billion, and 7.457 billion yuan, respectively [5]. - Analysts maintain a "buy" rating based on the expected growth driven by rising aluminum prices and ongoing project developments [6].

自由现金流ETF中证全指（561080）业绩比较基准为中证全指自由现金流指数收益率，管理人为华安基 金管理有限公司，基金经理为许之彦、王超，成立（2025-04-23）以来回报为21.55%，近一个月回报为 4.89%。 来源：新浪基金∞工作室 10月31日，截止午间收盘，自由现金流ETF中证全指（561080）跌0.33%，报1.211元，成交额247.47万 元。自由现金流ETF中证全指（561080）重仓股方面，中国海油截止午盘跌0.15%，美的集团涨1.49%， 格力电器跌1.36%，五粮液涨0.35%，中远海控涨1.21%，洛阳钼业跌2.33%，TCL科技涨1.40%，中国铝 业跌2.42%，顺丰控股跌2.22%，陕西煤业跌0.39%。 风险提示：市场有风险，投资需谨慎。本文为AI大模型自动发布，任何在本文出现的信息（包括但不 限于个股、评论、预测、图表、指标、理论、任何形式的表述等）均只作为参考，不构成个人投资建 议。 ...

Summary of Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) 3Q25 Earnings Call Company Overview - **Company**: Aluminum Corporation of China (Chalco) - **Stock Ticker**: 2600.HK - **Date of Report**: 27 October 2025 Key Financial Metrics - **Net Profit**: 9M25 net profit at Rmb10.87 billion, up 21% YoY, representing 81% of the 2025E Bloomberg consensus and Citi's full-year forecast [1][1] - **3Q25 Net Profit**: Rmb3.801 billion, +90% YoY and +8% QoQ, largely in line with expectations [1][1] - **Gross Profit**: 3Q25 gross profit at Rmb10.28 billion, +55% YoY and +7% QoQ, attributed to higher aluminum and alumina prices and lower production costs [1][1][3] - **Free Cash Flow (FCF)**: Increased to Rmb9.0 billion, +34% YoY and +56% QoQ [8][8] - **Operating Cash Flow (OCF)**: Rmb11.1 billion, +10% YoY and +39% QoQ [4][4] - **Net Gearing**: Improved to 19% from 30% at the end of 2024 [4][4] Production and Sales - **Alumina Production**: 5.63 million tons, +1% YoY and +7% QoQ [2][2] - **Aluminum Production**: 2.03 million tons, +2% YoY and flat QoQ [2][2] - **External Sales of Self-Produced Aluminum**: 2.04 million tons, +1% YoY and flat QoQ [2][2] Price Trends - **Alumina Spot Price**: Rmb3,148 per ton, down 20% YoY but up 3% QoQ [3][3] - **SHFE Aluminum Price**: Rmb20,717 per ton, up 6% YoY and up 3% QoQ [3][3] Valuation and Investment Outlook - **Target Price**: HK$7.47 per share, with a current price of HK$9.19, indicating an expected share price return of -18.7% [6][6] - **Expected Dividend Yield**: 3.7% [6][6] - **P/B Ratio**: 1.9x for 2025E [8][8] - **P/E Ratio**: 10.7x for 2025E [8][8] Risks - **Downside Risks**: 1. Lower-than-expected aluminum and alumina prices 2. Higher-than-expected costs 3. Higher-than-expected impairment loss 4. Potential loosening of supply cut policies by the Chinese government if aluminum prices overshoot [14][14][16][16] Conclusion - Chalco's strong financial performance in 3Q25, characterized by significant profit growth and improved cash flow, positions the company favorably for future shareholder returns. However, potential risks related to price fluctuations and government policies should be monitored closely. The investment outlook remains cautious with a maintained "Buy" rating despite the target price indicating a potential decline from current levels [1][8].