春节出游数据符合服务消费优于商品消费的判断，结构上"景区与出行链条强于餐饮与 商品消费"，相关标的：华住集团-S(01179，未评级)、九华旅游(603199，未评级)、三峡 旅游(002627，未评级)、携程集团-S(09961，未评级)、中国中免(601888，买入) 风险提示 宏观消费修复不及预期；居民收入预期波动影响出行频次；出入境政策或国际环境变化 影响入境修复节奏；极端天气及安全事件扰动客流；行业竞争加剧压缩价格与利润空 间。 国家/地区 中国 行业 社会服务行业 报告发布日期 2026 年 03 月 03 日 看好（维持） | 谢宁铃 | 执业证书编号：S0860520070001 | | --- | --- | | | xieningling@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | | 陈至奕 | 执业证书编号：S0860519090001 | | | 香港证监会牌照：BUK982 | | | chenzhiyi@orientsec.com.cn | | | 021-63326320 | 社会服务行业 行业研究 | 动态跟踪 总量符合预期，结构分化显现 核心 ...

Macro Insights - The upcoming National People's Congress is expected to set the GDP growth target for 2026 at "4.5%-5%" and maintain a CPI target around 2%[6] - Key indicators to watch include whether the PMI can return to expansion territory and if the first quarter credit can achieve a "good start"[6] Market Performance - The overall market performance in January showed a 13.1% increase, while March saw a 31.4% rise, with a year-on-year increase of 82.3%[3] - The coal sector maintained a steady performance with a 11.3% increase in both January and March, and a 25.4% increase year-on-year[3] Investment Recommendations - Focus on sectors benefiting from price increases, such as chemicals, steel, and energy, as well as companies involved in AI and technology[9] - Recommended stocks include Yanzhou Coal Mining, Nanshan Aluminum, and Yanjing Beer, among others[9] Economic Indicators - The central bank's liquidity measures have led to a slight decline in deposit rates, maintaining a stable and loose monetary environment[14] - The carbon market saw a total transaction volume of 8.8 billion tons, with a cumulative transaction value of 587.2 billion yuan[23] Sector-Specific Trends - The environmental sector is expected to benefit from new policies in Zhejiang and Guangxi, promoting solid waste treatment and recycling[22] - The tourism market is projected to perform well throughout 2026, driven by ongoing policy support and consumer demand[26] Risks - Potential risks include unexpected changes in external environments, policy effectiveness, and geopolitical tensions[6] - The coal market faces risks from domestic production exceeding expectations and downstream demand not meeting projections[34]

股 票 研 究 重申黄金珠宝和旅游出行的投资机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 赵国振(分析师) | 021-38031044 | zhaoguozhen@gtht.com | S0880524030006 | 本报告导读： 国际局势动荡，黄金珠宝与部分大宗交易公司有望重估。继续看好旅游出行景气恢 复。 投资要点： 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期、宏观经济波动风险、市场竞争加剧。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情 绪价值和体验》2026.02.26 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》2026 ...

股 票 研 究 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.01 重申黄金珠宝和旅游出行的投资机会 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 商社行业周报（2026.2.23-2026.3.1） | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 赵国振(分析师) | 021-38031044 | zhaoguozhen@gtht.com | S0880524030006 | 本报告导读： 国际局势动荡，黄金珠宝与部分大宗交易公司有望重估。继续看好旅游出行景气恢 复。 业 投资要点： 风险提示：消费复苏不及预期、宏观经济波动风险、市场竞争加剧。 [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情 绪价值和体验》2026.02.26 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》20 ...

当前节点推荐旅游板块 近期，埋伏春节的资金兑现、科技周期板块的虹吸导致旅游板块持续走低。 26年重点关注服务消费板块。 #政策端：中央经济工作会议将"内需主导、扩消费"列为 2026 年经济工作首要任务；国办1月印发《加快培育服务 消费新增长点工作方案》，明确服务消费是扩内需核心抓手，两会是政策落地与细化的关键窗口。 #基本面上，2025Q4至今服务消费增速持续跑赢商品消费；春节出行数据亮眼，酒旅航空量价齐升，复苏确定性 高。 此外，#2026年预计是春秋假政策规模化执行之年，目前已经有四川+浙江+吉林+江苏+安徽全省执行，及多省市 试点执行。 陕西旅游、三峡旅游、九华旅游等优质旅游股自高点后跌幅分别为16%、16%、12%。 参考去年9月19日国庆前后板块调整幅度，已经较为接近（三峡、九华距离去年9.19高点涨幅已收窄至13%、- 1%），当前节点，两会临近+4月后清明、春假、五一密集假期节点，我们认为可以逐渐布局。 当前节点推荐旅游板块 近期，埋伏春节的资金兑现、科技周期板块的虹吸导致旅游板块持续走低。 陕西旅游、三峡旅游、九华旅游等优质旅游股自高点后跌幅分别为16%、16%、12%。 参考去年9月19日 ...

目 录 | | 每日报告精选（2026-02-25 09:00——2026-02-26 15:00） | 2 | | --- | --- | --- | |  | 海外策略研究：《关税、地缘与 AI 叙事扰动，春节多数资产收涨》2026-02-25 2 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：社会服务业《春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情绪价值和体验》2026-02-26 2 | | |  | 行业事件快评：其他小金属《津巴布韦收紧锂精矿出口，供给扰动再现》2026-02-26 3 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：房地产《期待更强政策干预，推动供需再平衡》2026-02-26 4 | | |  | 行业专题研究：医药《从靶点到管线，FXI 引领抗凝产业新变革》2026-02-25 5 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：汽车《1 月重卡"开门红"，同环比均有增长》2026-02-25 6 | | |  | 行业跟踪报告：房地产《沪"新七条"发布，小阳春可期》2026-02-25 6 | | |  | 行业专题研究：商业银行《大型银行短贷显著增加，中小银行信贷增长放缓》2026-02-25 7 | | |  ...

Group 1: Agriculture Industry Insights - The domestic pet consumption market is evolving from basic needs to emotional narratives, driving upgrades in pet food and medical services, indicating a new growth phase for the industry [6] - The USDA's February report predicts a stable beef price outlook for 2026, with increased global soybean ending stocks due to South American production [9][11] - The domestic pet medical market is expected to expand significantly, driven by pet aging and the need for better healthcare services, with a low current chain rate indicating room for consolidation [7][11] Group 2: Consumer Services Industry Strategy - The Spring Festival holiday data shows a 9.6% year-on-year increase in cross-regional personnel flow, indicating strong demand for travel and services [14] - Hotel industry performance improved significantly during the holiday, with a 30.7% increase in REVPAR, driven by strong demand and price stabilization among leading groups [14] - The domestic retail and catering sectors saw an 8.6% increase in average daily sales during the holiday, reflecting a recovery in consumer spending [14] Group 3: Automotive Industry Analysis - The report highlights Sensata Technologies as a leading global supplier in automotive exterior parts, benefiting from a diversified product range and a strong cash flow for R&D [16] - The company is positioned to capitalize on the growing electric vehicle market, with significant revenue expected from battery box sales in Europe [17] - Sensata is expanding into new sectors such as robotics and liquid cooling, indicating a strategic diversification of its product offerings [18] Group 4: Financial Engineering and Investment Value - The report emphasizes the potential of the non-ferrous metals sector, with macroeconomic conditions favoring price recovery and demand growth driven by emerging industries [19][20] - The Southern China Securities Non-Ferrous Metals ETF is highlighted as a key investment vehicle, with strong liquidity and a comprehensive product line from a leading fund manager [22] - The index's performance is expected to outperform the broader market, supported by strong earnings growth from major companies in the sector [21]

春节消费高景气，关注性价比、情绪价值和体验 [Table_Industry] 社会服务业 2026 年春节消费调研观察 春节线下零售和服务消费高景气，下沉市场客流更旺盛、线下消费更火热。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 社会服务业《史上最长春节假期，文旅板块景气 度高》2026.02.23 社会服务业《千问加码外卖补贴，行业价格战趋 缓》2026.02.09 社会服务业《乐购新春方案出台，关注春节消费 表现》2026.02.08 社会服务业《政策推动、供求双旺，景区板块迎 黄金投资期》2026.02.07 社会服务业《政策支持服务消费发展，关注春节 数据》2026.02.01 票 研 究 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 刘越男(分析师) | 021-38677706 | liuyuenan@gtht.com | S0880516030003 | | 宋小寒(分析师) | 010-83939087 | songxiaohan@gtht.com | S0880524080011 | 本报告导读 ...

| 指数 | 收盘 | | 涨跌（％） | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 名称 | （点） | 1 日 | 5 日 | 1 月 | | 上证指数 | 4147 | 0.72 | 0.27 | 1.6 | | 深证综指 | 2746 | 1.21 | 0.01 | 2.46 | | 风格指数 (％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 大盘指数 | 0.56 | 0.59 | 5.01 | | 中盘指数 | 1.39 | 0.21 | 21.94 | | 小盘指数 | 1.59 | -0.96 | 15.17 | | 涨幅居前 行业(％) | 昨日 | 近 1 个月 | 近 6 个月 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 小金属Ⅱ | 7.77 | 11.75 | 60.09 | | 冶钢原料 | 5.65 | 5.49 | 59.48 | | 房地产服务 | 5.41 | 7.08 | 4.44 | | 普钢Ⅱ | 5.04 | 3.31 | 3.25 | | 航天装备Ⅱ | ...

核心观点：春节文旅量稳价升，看好高端消费回暖 我们认为，2026 年消费最确定的增量来自服务，而文旅是服务消费中最具弹性的赛道，因此选择开设"数说文旅消费" 专题，重点跟踪文旅消费数据。 总览：2026 年春节消费延续元旦复苏趋势，量增平稳、价格改善亮眼。商务大数据显示假期前四天全国重点零售及餐 饮企业日均销售额同比+8.6%，显著高于 2025 年国庆中秋 2.7%及春节 5.4%增速。 出行：春节长假期驱动长途出行旺盛，长辈"反向过节"趋势明显，客流量增长亮眼。根据交通部数据，2026 年 2 月 16 日-2 月 21 日日均全社会跨区域人员流动 2.99 亿人次，同比 2025 年同期+11.05%，累计跨区域人员流动达 17.93 亿人次，同比+11.13%，长途出行市场维持高景气。分具体出行方式看，春节前六日铁路/公路/水路/民航累计分别较 2025 年同期+ 16.37%/+10.90%/+31.05%/+9.45%。 旅游：春节客流充裕，多景区供给侧优化，营收增长亮眼。张家界黄龙洞将非遗年俗与溶洞景观深度融合，三峡游轮 将传统年俗与三峡风光交融，打造沉浸式体验；黄山旅游借力有奖发票活动，将外部 ...