证券研究报告 | 行业月报 gszqdatemark 2026 03 02 年 月 日 农林牧渔 关注地缘政治对农业整体板块的影响，生猪亏损加深逻辑增强 大宗农产品：市场对农产品关注度持续提升，从基本面上看，原油价格长 期中枢抬升会带动生产成本上涨同时拉动需求扩张，我们认为影响程度排 序为植物油类（棕榈油、菜籽油、豆油）、橡胶为先，其次为白糖、玉米， 粮食类小麦、稻谷为后。当前主要大宗农产品均处于低位，资金抄底意愿 较强，基本面反应在后但有望跟随，关注植物油类、橡胶、白糖、玉米等 相关对应标的。 生猪养殖：节后全国瘦肉型肉猪出栏价跌至 11 元/kg 下方，亏损程度加 深。我们预计未来较长时间成本偏高的参与者面临减量压力，母猪产能数 据变化仍将继续催化，建议投资者关注亏损阶段的配置机会。当前估值仍 位于相对低位，关注低成本的猪企的配置机会，关注德康农牧、温氏股份、 牧原股份、立华股份、天康生物、正邦科技等。 菌菇：本月金针菇价格保持景气，主要标的业绩预告发布高增，确认价格 反弹持续，冬虫夏草作为重点新产品放量期临近，年度配置价值高，建议 关注板块重点标的众兴菌业、雪榕生物、华绿生物等。 养殖配套：农产品上下游 ...

东兴证券发布研报称，猪价自25年12月底部回升，涨势持续至1月中下旬，而后止涨下滑。2月猪价打破 年前高企预期，持续回调，截至2月10日，全国外三元生猪均价12元/公斤。猪价年前调头说明供过于求 形势严峻，猪价短期向下压力大，年后猪价探底将带来行业亏损出清；26年一号文件提出强化生猪产能 综合调控，农业农村部将落实生猪生产备案管理，政策精细化调控趋势持续，政策与亏损共同作用下， 年后产能去化有望逐步加速，猪价有望在26年下半年迎来向上拐点。 东兴证券主要观点如下： 国家统计局数据显示，2025年12月末能繁母猪存栏量3961万头，相比10月末进一步下降。2026年中央一 号文件提出强化生猪产能综合调控，2026年政策精细化调控趋势持续。截至2026年2月13日，行业平均 自繁自养生猪头均盈利-98.32元/头，自繁自养再度转亏。 标的方面 建议关注成本行业领先，业绩兑现度高的头部养殖标的牧原股份(002714.SZ)，其他受益标的包含温氏 股份(300498.SZ)、德康农牧(02419)、天康生物(002100.SZ)、神农集团(605296.SH)等。 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，1月均价回暖 农业农村部 ...

农业ETF(516810.SH)持仓生猪养殖、农业化工、种植业等多个细分板块龙头，充分受益反内卷、猪周期 反转、化工周期、种业安全等多重共振，目前估值处于历史低位水平。投资者可以借道ETF布局农业低 位反弹机会，ETF有低门槛、分散风险的优势，同时被动跟踪指数，持仓透明、风格不漂移。联接A： 016077；联接C：016078 近期市场板块轮动较快。东方证券表示，避险情绪助推消费，化工农业仍是重点。在全球不确定性增加 的背景下，粮食安全是国家战略底线。农业板块估值处于历史低位，同时内循环属性较强，具备较高的 安全边际和必选消费的抗通胀属性。 2026年2月27日，A股周期板块再度活跃，农业板块多股走强，截至10:32，农业ETF华夏(516810)上涨 1.25%， 冲击4连涨。持仓股亚盛集团上涨9.97%，利民股份上涨5.28%，立华股份上涨3.29%，牧原股 份，海南橡胶等个股跟涨。（以上所列股票仅为指数成份股，无特定推荐之意） 农业ETF华夏(516810)，场外联接(华夏中证农业主题ETF发起式联接A：016077；华夏中证农业主题 ETF发起式联接C：016078；华夏中证农业主题ETF发起式联接D ...

农林牧渔行业：节前猪价转跌，1 月出栏环比下行 ——生猪养殖行业月度跟踪 行业供需表现：猪价旺季回升，1 月均价回暖。农业农村部监测数据显示，2026 年 1 月仔猪、活猪和猪肉均价分别为 25.38 元/公斤、13.18 元/公斤和 23.40 元/公斤，环比变化分别为 8.44%、7.50%和 3.39%。猪价自 25 年 12 月底部 回升，涨势持续至 1 月中下旬，而后止涨下滑。2 月猪价打破年前高企预期， 持续回调，截至 2 月 10 日，全国外三元生猪均价 12 元/公斤。 供应端：1 月规模场按照正常节奏出栏，中小散户节奏放缓，对 1 月猪价形成 支撑。2 月节后弱预期带来节前出栏集中，生猪供应压力增大。需求端：1 月 春节备货逐步开启，终端市场有所提振。但屠宰端盈利压力较大，对开工率和 价格上行造成阻力。2 月上旬屠宰开工率环比一月末略有提振，但仍不及往年 腊月水平，春节节点偏晚，需求分散，终端备货支撑不足。 产能变化趋势：国家统计局数据显示，10 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3990 万头，环 比下降 1.10%，12 月末能繁母猪存栏量 3961 万头，相比 10 月末进一步下降。 从三方数据来看 ...

格隆汇2月24日丨正邦科技(002157.SZ)在互动平台表示，公司目前暂无宠物粮方面的布局。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，华创证券发布研报称，2026年1月，包括牧原股份、温氏股份等在内的18家样本猪 企合计生猪出栏量1802.15万头，同比增长12.54%，环比25年12月减少11.15%；出栏均重方面，包括牧 原股份、温氏股份等在内的9家样本猪企商品猪平均体重为123.71公斤。行业层面，截至2月12日，根据 涌益咨询监测，自繁自养企业销售商品猪利润为-52.94元/头，自去年底以来再度转亏，销售仔猪头均利 润为75元/头，为连续第5周盈利。 华创证券主要观点如下： 出栏量：1月18家样本猪企合计出栏量同比增长12.54%，环比减少11.15% 1月包括牧原股份、温氏股份等在内的18家样本猪企合计生猪出栏量1802.15万头，同比增长12.54%，环 比25年12月减少11.15%。其中，出栏量前5名分别为牧原股份、温氏股份、新希望、德康农牧、正邦科 技，出栏量分别为700.90万头、338.42万头、139.82万头、104.24万头、92.75万头，出栏量同比增速前5 名分别为京基智农、东瑞股份、正邦科技、金新农、巨星农牧，增速分别为79.87%、78.31%、 62.32%、60.56%、59.40 ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Recommended" [3][45] Core Viewpoints - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies increased by 12.54% year-on-year but decreased by 11.15% month-on-month, totaling 18.02 million heads [6][9] - The average selling price of commercial pigs for 15 sample pig companies in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, a year-on-year decrease of 19.30% but an increase of 8.83% month-on-month [13][14] - The average weight of slaughtered pigs in January was 121.41 kg, showing a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17] - The industry is experiencing a return to losses in breeding profits before the festival, with the average weight of pigs still at historically high levels [19][20] - The current valuation level of the pig farming sector is relatively low, with sufficient safety margins, and the cost advantages of leading companies like Muyuan are expected to expand [34][35] Summary by Sections Slaughter Volume - In January, the total slaughter volume of 18 sample pig companies was 18.02 million heads, with a year-on-year increase of 12.54% and a month-on-month decrease of 11.15% [6][9][11] Selling Price - The average selling price of commercial pigs in January was 12.58 yuan/kg, down 19.30% year-on-year but up 8.83% month-on-month [13][14][16] Average Weight - The average weight of slaughtered pigs was 121.41 kg in January, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 2.82% and a month-on-month increase of 1.42% [16][17][19] Industry Overview - The industry is facing a return to losses in breeding profits, with the average weight of pigs remaining high historically [19][20][34] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a forward-looking layout at the bottom, emphasizing efficiency over growth and quality over scale, with a focus on companies like Muyuan, Wens, Dekang, and Shennong [33][34][35]

Group 1: Key Events - The company, Zhengbang Technology, has a restructuring plan where the investor, Shuangbao Group, committed to integrating its pig farming and feed business assets into the listed company within 24 months after the restructuring is completed, expected by mid-December 2025 [1] - The company's stock price experienced a decline after failing to disclose any information related to the fulfillment of this commitment, despite an initial surge [1] Group 2: Financial Performance Goals - Shuangbao Group has set a target for the listed company to achieve profitability in the second year (2025) of the restructuring plan [2] - However, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders showed a significant decline in the first three quarters of 2025, and ongoing pressure on pig sales prices in the fourth quarter poses challenges to meeting the annual profitability goal [2] Group 3: Company Fundamentals - Although the company has completed its restructuring, its revenue has only recovered to about 30% of historical highs, and profitability remains hindered by rising operating costs and asset impairment losses [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the recent listing of Muyuan Foods on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange, highlighting its ambitions for international expansion and the challenges it faces in the current pork market cycle. Group 1: Company Overview - Muyuan Foods, led by Qin Yinglin, has become the largest pig farming enterprise in China and globally, with a net worth of 187 billion yuan, ranking 16th on the Hurun Rich List [4][6][19]. - The company completed its "A+H" listing on February 6, raising 10.47 billion HKD, with plans to use 60% of the funds for international market expansion [6][25]. Group 2: Market Performance - On its first trading day, Muyuan's stock rose only 3.90%, attributed to a decline in pork prices, with an average selling price of 12.57 yuan/kg in January, down 16.92% year-on-year [8][26]. - The company expects a net profit of 15.1 to 16.1 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 14.12% to 19.45% compared to the previous year [30]. Group 3: Investment and Partnerships - Major cornerstone investors include Charoen Pokphand Foods, which invested approximately 1.56 billion HKD, and Wilmar International, which invested about 546 million HKD [27][28]. - Muyuan is exploring overseas opportunities, particularly in Southeast Asia, and has partnered with BAF Vietnam Agricultural Co., providing services like pig house design and smart farming [9][29]. Group 4: Industry Challenges - The pork industry is currently experiencing a downturn, with many producers facing losses due to the cyclical nature of pig prices, often referred to as the "pig cycle" [12][36]. - The company has faced significant challenges, including a reported loss of 4.263 billion yuan in 2023, marking its first annual loss since its listing [15][35]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Muyuan aims to leverage its international listing to enhance its core business and expand its global footprint, with a focus on technological innovation and cost control [7][18]. - The company plans to maintain a competitive edge through continuous improvement in breeding, smart farming, and biosecurity measures [6][30].

作者 | 乔钰杰 编辑 | 袁斯来 硬氪获悉，女娲农业科技（深圳）有限公司（以下简称"女娲农业科技"）近日完成数千万元融资，投资 方为厦门国升基金。本轮融资将主要用于核心技术研发、产品工程化升级及规模化落地。 畜牧场景对机器人提出多重复杂要求：设备需长期耐受高湿、高腐蚀条件；地面常覆盖粪污与饲料残渣 混合物；场地内存在积水、斜坡、隔栅、缝隙等多种复杂结构；加之动物活动带来的空间动态变化，进 一步增加作业难度。此外，养殖清洁的目标不仅是表面洁净，更强调降低微生物与病原负荷。因此，在 清洁路径规划、消杀覆盖率以及作业可追溯性等方面，对机器人系统提出了更高标准。 围绕以上难点，女娲农业科技将AI能力深度嵌入产品体系。公司创始人罗浩在接受硬氪采访时介绍 称，AI能力在产品中主要承担两项功能：一是基于多模态感知，识别动物异常行为与健康状态，形成 风险预警与分级工单；二是对清洁与消杀任务进行智能调度与优化，使机器人在不同场景下持续迭代作 业模型。数据来源包括机器人传感系统与养殖端业务数据，并与养殖场SOP结合，在实际运行中不断优 化模型参数。 硬件层面，产品采用高转速无刷电机与定制结构设计，以适配高负载清洁与消杀工况。目 ...