证 券 研 究 报 告 药明合联（02268.HK）深度研究报告 推荐（首次） 蓄势待发，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有望 进入商业化收获期 ❖ 蓄势待发，全球领先的 XDC CRDMO 有望进入商业化收获期。药明合联凭借 端到端一体化生物偶联药物 CRDMO 服务能力与行业领先的技术平台，持续 巩固并夯实全球生物偶联药物 CRDMO 领域的领先地位。 站在当前时点，公司在手项目数量稳步攀升，尤其是商业化验证前期关键环节 的 PPQ（工艺验证）项目持续增加，充分印证公司 IND 后管线正加速向商业 化阶段转化。随着公司逐步进入商业化项目收获期，收入体量与利润规模有望 实现中长期快速增长。 ❖ 从 ADC 到 XDC，生物偶联药物行业高速发展。ADC 药物作为生物偶联药物 中最主要的一类，以 2024 年销售额计已出现 6 款"重磅炸弹"药物；此外， 以双抗 ADC 和双载荷 ADC 为代表的新型 ADC 商业化在即。据 Frost & sullivan 统计及预测，全球 ADC 药物有望于 2030 年达到 662 亿美元。除了 ADC，载 体和有效载荷还可以替换为其他形式的药物，并且有望拓展肿瘤以外的多 ...

2026 年 02 月 25 日 国产替代浪潮下的宠物药苗行业：发展路径、范 式解构与机遇洞察 推荐(维持) 投资要点 | 分析师：娄倩 | S1050524070002 | | --- | --- | | louqian@cfsc.com.cn | | | 行业相对表现 | | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 动物保健Ⅱ(申 | -4.9 | 9.9 | 63.0 | | 万) | | | | | 沪深 300 | 0.1 | 4.8 | 19.9 | 市场表现 -20 0 20 40 60 80 100 (%) 动物保健Ⅱ 沪深300 资料来源：Wind，华鑫证券研究 相关研究 1、《动物保健Ⅱ行业深度报告：宠 物医院赛道将迎第一股，盈利拐点 转折时》2026-02-19 2、《从美日宠物医院行业复盘看国 内连锁率提升，以降本+复购+标准 化模式打造头部扩张潜力与高营 收》2025-09-05 ▌ 国产替代的范式解构：理论框架、演进路径与跨 行业验证 国产品牌的崛起遵循清晰路径：1）0-1 突破期：核心是以 "稳定质价比"结合渠道创新， ...

截至11:07，港股通创新药ETF(159570)标的指数热门股多数回调：石药集团、中国生物制药、三生制药、翰森制药、荣昌生物跌超5%，信达生物跌超4%， 康方生物跌超3%。 | 序号 | 代码 | 名称 | 估算板車 | 涨跌幅 | 17.47 80 ▼ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 1 | 1801 | 信达生物 | 10.51% | -0.56% | 6.81亿 | | 2 | 1093 | 石药集团 | 12.18% | -3.15% | 5.98 7. | | 3 | 6160 | 高密被田 | 10.99% | -1.13% | 2.83 Z | | 4 | 1530 | 三生制药 | 6.50% | -2.57% | 2.65 Z | | 5 | 9926 | 康方生物 | 8.49% | -1.33% | 2.57 Z | | 6 | 3692 | 翰森制药 | 6.84% | -1.84% | 1.99 Z | | 7 | 1177 | 中国生物制药 | 10.01% | -3.66% | 1.74Z | | 8 | 6990 | 科伦博 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights Merck's financial performance for the fiscal year 2025, with total sales of $65 billion, a 1% year-over-year increase, and a non-GAAP EPS of $8.98, reflecting a 17% growth [1] - In Q4 2025, Merck reported revenues of $16.4 billion, a 5% increase year-over-year, slightly exceeding market expectations [1] - The company projects 2026 sales between $65.5 billion and $67 billion, with adjusted EPS expected to be between $5.00 and $5.15, which is below Wall Street expectations due to one-time costs from the acquisition of Cidara Therapeutics [1] Group 2 - Merck is in discussions to acquire cancer drug developer Revolution Medicines for an estimated $28 billion to $32 billion, which would enhance its oncology pipeline with the experimental drug Daraxonrasib [2] - The subcutaneous formulation of Keytruda, Keytruda Qlex, has been submitted for approval in the U.S., EU, and China to address the patent expiration challenge in 2028 [2] - The pulmonary arterial hypertension drug Winrevair is expected to receive FDA approval for new indications in 2026, with projected sales of $1.443 billion in 2025 [2] - The oral PCSK9 inhibitor Enlicitide has successfully completed Phase III clinical trials, potentially becoming a new growth point in the cardiovascular sector [2] Group 3 - As of February 13, 2026, Merck's stock price was $121.79, up 2.14% for the day and showing a year-to-date increase of 15.70% [3] - The stock experienced significant volatility, with a 3.51% drop on February 9, followed by a rebound, resulting in a trading range fluctuation of 5.92% [3] - On February 13, trading volume was approximately $238 million, with a volume ratio of 1.32, indicating active short-term trading [3] Group 4 - In January 2026, Wolfe Research upgraded Merck's rating to "Outperform" with a target price of $135, citing the company's active phase of mergers and product innovation [4] - It is anticipated that by 2029, approximately 41% of Keytruda's intravenous revenue may transition to the subcutaneous version [4]

Core Viewpoint - The company has shown improvement in financial performance, expanding its business scale, deepening the application of digital platforms, and experiencing a clear trend of industry concentration, attracting institutional attention [1]. Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company reported revenue of 609 million, a year-on-year increase of 2.59%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 87.38 million, up 20.92%. In the third quarter alone, revenue reached 219 million, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 9.84%, while net profit surged by 91.6% to 33.23 million, with a gross margin increase to 25.58% [2]. Business Development - As of the end of September 2025, the company has undertaken over 4,200 international and domestic SMO projects, with 2,538 projects currently in execution. The service scope includes the top ten global pharmaceutical companies in 2024, such as Merck and AstraZeneca, indicating a quarterly growth trend in project numbers and demonstrating business resilience [3]. Technological Advancements - The company has developed its own platform, the "Rui Xing" intelligent management system, which integrates AI functionalities to enhance the efficiency of clinical trials. Investor relations activities in 2025 indicated that this platform has achieved data visualization and intelligent management, contributing to improved service quality [4]. Industry Environment - According to investor activities in February 2026, resources in the SMO industry are gradually concentrating towards leading enterprises. As a leading company, the firm benefits from regulatory policy support and accumulated customer resources, optimizing the competitive landscape of the industry [5]. Institutional Interest - In January 2026, the company hosted discussions with several institutions, including Huatai PineBridge Fund, focusing on business strategy and quality management systems. Over the past year, the company has received a total of 210 institutional visits, reflecting a high level of market interest [6].

Core Viewpoint - Yuan Dong Bio (688513) announced that its wholly-owned subsidiary Chengdu Youluo Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has initiated Phase I clinical trials for its monoclonal antibody EP-0210 injection, targeting inflammatory bowel disease, with the first patient dosing recently completed [1] Company Summary - EP-0210 is a humanized IgG1 monoclonal antibody that targets TNF-like ligand 1A (TL1A), aiming to treat inflammatory bowel disease by effectively binding to TL1A and blocking pro-inflammatory signaling pathways [1] - The development of TL1A antibody drugs is one of the most closely watched emerging targets in the field of inflammatory bowel disease, with no similar drugs currently available on the market globally [1] Industry Summary - The fastest global development progress for TL1A-targeting drugs is being made by Merck, Sanofi, and Roche/Pfizer, all of which have TL1A antibody drugs in Phase III clinical trials [1] - In China, companies such as 3SBio, ZhiXiang JinTai, and HuaShen ZhiYao have also entered Phase I clinical trials for similar TL1A-targeting drugs [1]

研究报告 Research Report 9 Feb 2026 香港医疗 Hong Kong Health Care 医药行业周报（2026.02.02-2026.02.06）：市场情绪回暖；看好基本面表现强劲的创新药产业链龙头 Healthcare Weekly (2026.02.02-2026.02.06): Market Sentiment Warms; Bullish on Leaders in Innovative Drug Chain with Strong Fundamentals [Table_yemei1] 观点聚焦 Investment Focus | [Table_Info] | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 股票名称 | 评级 | 股票名称 | 评级 | | 百济神州 | Outperform 华润医药 | | Outperform | | 京东健康 | Outperform 国药控股 | | Neutral | | 药明生物 | Outperform 映恩生物 | | Outperform | | 信达生物 | Outperform 金斯瑞生物科 ...

Core Insights - Longhua Technology (联化科技) is positioned as a leading player in the agricultural and pharmaceutical CDMO sectors, with significant achievements in small nucleic acid CDMO and potential in functional chemicals [1][2] Business Overview - Longhua Technology has established a collaborative development framework across four core industrial segments: agricultural protection, pharmaceuticals, functional chemicals, and equipment & engineering services [2] - The agricultural protection segment generated revenue of 1.702 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a gross margin increase of 9.48% year-on-year [2] - The pharmaceutical segment, focusing on APIs and intermediates, achieved revenue of 1.018 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 42.80% [2] Small Nucleic Acid CDMO - The company is leveraging small nucleic acid CDMO to tap into new growth opportunities, with advantages over traditional small molecule and antibody drugs, including broader target selection and higher success rates [3] - Since 2022, the market for small nucleic acid drugs has seen significant activity, with 32 transactions totaling 29.022 billion USD in 2025, indicating strong commercial value [3] - Longhua Technology has developed scalable production processes for modified nucleotides and has established a high-efficiency delivery system for nucleic acid drugs, enhancing its competitive edge [3] Functional Chemicals and Market Potential - The functional chemicals segment reported revenue of 0.265 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a year-on-year doubling [4] - The company is focusing on lithium battery materials, including lithium hexafluorophosphate and LiFSI, with ongoing product development in various testing phases [4] - The National Development and Reform Commission's new storage action plan aims for over 1.8 million kilowatts by 2027, which is expected to drive significant market demand in the energy storage sector [4] Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2025, Longhua Technology reported total revenue of 4.718 billion yuan, an increase of 8.25% year-on-year, and a net profit of 316 million yuan, surging by 871.65% [1] - The projected net profit for 2025 is estimated to be between 350 million and 420 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 239.35% to 307.22% [4]

Group 1: US Pharmaceutical Earnings Season - Eli Lilly reported Q4 revenue of $19.3 billion, a 43% year-over-year increase, with non-GAAP EPS of $7.54, up 42%. The weight loss drug Zepbound has surpassed Novo Nordisk's Wegovy in prescriptions, and the 2026 revenue guidance is set at $80-83 billion, exceeding market expectations with a projected growth of 27% [1][10]. - Novo Nordisk's sales for semaglutide (Ozempic/Wegovy) are expected to reach $34.608 billion in 2025, accounting for 73.9% of total revenue. In China, Ozempic's sales are approximately ¥5.932 billion, while Wegovy's are about ¥874 million. The oral version of Wegovy is set to launch in the US on January 5, 2026, with around 50,000 prescriptions within the first month [2][10]. - Merck's Keytruda achieved annual sales of $31.68 billion, a 7% increase, nearing 50% of total revenue. The new pulmonary hypertension drug Winrevair generated $1.443 billion in sales, more than tripling from 2024 [4][10]. - Johnson & Johnson's Q4 revenue was $24.56 billion, exceeding expectations, with a 10% increase in the innovative pharmaceuticals segment. The 2026 revenue guidance is set at $99.5-100.5 billion, also above expectations [6][10]. - Pfizer's Q4 revenue was $17.6 billion, with a 9% increase excluding COVID products. The 2026 revenue guidance is conservative at $59.5-62.5 billion, reflecting declines in COVID product sales and patent expirations [7][10]. - Sanofi's Q4 earnings exceeded expectations, with record sales of Dupixent reaching €4.246 billion, a 32.2% year-over-year increase [8][10]. Group 2: Industry Trends and Insights - The current earnings season indicates that in the innovative-driven pharmaceutical industry, there are no eternal leaders, only continuous evolution [9][10]. - The competition in the GLP-1 drug market has intensified, with Eli Lilly's tirzepatide overtaking Novo Nordisk's semaglutide, marking a new phase in the industry [10]. - The slowdown in sales growth for Merck's Keytruda, despite record sales, highlights the need for new products and acquisitions to navigate the post-Keytruda era [10]. - The focus of competition is shifting from injectable to oral formulations, as seen with Novo Nordisk's oral Wegovy and Eli Lilly's multi-target drug Retatrutide, to build product moats [10]. - Price competition and pipeline iteration will be key observation points, with the impact of US drug pricing legislation becoming evident and the onset of a "price war" among GLP-1 drugs [10]. Group 3: Hong Kong Pharmaceutical Sector Opportunities - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical sector has seen significant changes, with innovation drugs remaining the strongest growth engine, shifting from "signing" to "realization" of value [11][12]. - The medical device sector is experiencing a "double recovery" opportunity as the impact of centralized procurement policies diminishes, leading to performance and valuation recovery [13][14]. - The Chinese traditional medicine sector is active, driven by favorable policies, but there is a "temperature difference" between policy drivers and fundamental performance, necessitating careful selection of stocks [17][19]. Group 4: ETF Configuration and Strategy - Valuations in the Hong Kong medical sector remain attractive, with the latest PE ratio at 30.77x, still low compared to the past five years [18][19]. - Macro liquidity conditions are favorable, with expectations of RMB appreciation and stable HKD attracting funds to Hong Kong stocks [18][19]. - The upcoming National People's Congress in March will clarify annual growth targets and industry policy priorities, serving as a critical point for risk appetite re-evaluation [18][19].

Core Viewpoint - Sichuan Kelun Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. announced that its subsidiary, Sichuan Kelun Botai Biopharmaceutical Co., Ltd., received approval from the National Medical Products Administration (NMPA) for the fourth indication of its core product, TROP2 ADC, sac-TMT, for the treatment of 2L+ HR+/HER2- breast cancer [2][6]. Drug Basic Information - The approval is based on positive results from the OptiTROP-Breast02 Phase III clinical study, which was presented at the 2025 European Society for Medical Oncology (ESMO) Congress [2][3]. - The new indication is for adult patients with unresectable or metastatic HR+/HER2- breast cancer who have previously received endocrine therapy and at least one line of chemotherapy [2][3]. Clinical Study Results - The OptiTROP-Breast02 study evaluated the efficacy and safety of sac-TMT compared to investigator's choice of chemotherapy in patients with HR+/HER2- breast cancer [3]. - Among enrolled patients, 95.7% had visceral metastases, and 75.9% had liver metastases [3]. - The study showed a significant improvement in progression-free survival (PFS) for the sac-TMT group compared to the chemotherapy group (8.3 months vs. 4.1 months; hazard ratio (HR): 0.35; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.26-0.48; p<0.0001) [3]. - The overall survival (OS) benefit trend and objective response rate (ORR) were also significantly higher in the sac-TMT group (41.5% vs. 24.1%) [3]. Product Overview - Sac-TMT is a novel TROP2 ADC developed by Kelun Botai, targeting various advanced solid tumors, including non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), breast cancer (BC), gastric cancer (GC), and gynecological tumors [5]. - The drug utilizes a new linker and has a drug-antibody ratio (DAR) of 7.4, delivering a topoisomerase I inhibitor as an effective payload [5]. - Sac-TMT has received six breakthrough therapy designations (BTD) from the NMPA [6]. Ongoing Research - Currently, sac-TMT is involved in nine registration clinical studies in China, with Merck conducting 16 ongoing global Phase III clinical studies for various cancer types [7].