Group 1 - The Ministry of Finance of China announced a meeting on January 8 between Vice Minister Liao Min and former Canadian Prime Minister Jean Chrétien to discuss China-Canada relations and economic ties [1] - Topics of discussion included bilateral trade and investment between China and Canada [1] - The meeting highlights the ongoing dialogue and potential for strengthening economic cooperation between the two countries [1]

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 来源：CFC商品策略研究 作者 | 中信建投期货 研究发展部 石丽红 研究助理涂标 本报告完成时间 | 2026年1月11日 本周加拿大总理访华日程安排及澳大利亚菜籽入榨日期持续获得市场关注，叠加大宗油脂转强与大豆拍 储信息刺激，菜油整体强于菜粕。预计下周菜系油粕焦点均在于加拿大总理访华是否取得经贸成果突 破，以及年前澳大利亚菜籽是否顺利入榨形成供应。 加拿大总理访华行程确认 加拿大总理马克·卡尼在1月9日宣布将于2026年1月13日至17日访问中国，目的是加强双方在贸易、能 源、农业和国际安全等领域的合作，这也是2017年以来加拿大总理再次访华。加拿大总理办公室称，要 推动加拿大从依赖型经济转向韧性经济，努力使非美国出口翻一番。加拿大统计局数据显示，目前加拿 大对美出口占比在75%以上，其次为中国、英国和日本等。 另一方面，本周加拿大接连对中国铸铁污水管和热敏卷纸采取贸易限制措施。1月7日，加拿大边境服务 署对原产于或进口自中国的铸铁污水管做出双反肯定性终裁。1月8日，加拿大国际贸易法庭裁定原产于 中国或从中国出口的热敏纸卷存在"双反"行为。 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Soybean Meal, Soybean Oil [1] - **Bullish (★☆☆)**: Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Eggs [1] - **Neutral (White Star)**: Soybean, Palm Oil, Corn, Live Pigs [1] 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall agricultural product futures market shows a mixed trend, with different varieties affected by various factors such as policies, supply - demand relationships, and weather conditions [2][3][4] - For most varieties, short - term market trends need to be continuously monitored, and different trading strategies are recommended for different varieties [3][6][8] 3. Summary by Related Catalog Soybean - The main contract of soybean futures is in an adjustment state at a high level, and the spot price of domestic soybeans is rising. Jilin Province will conduct a competitive auction of trade grains in mid - January [2] - South American new - season soybeans maintain the annual production forecast, and the supply - side risk is low. Short - term attention should be paid to policy and market guidance [2] Soybean and Soybean Meal - The USDA will release the January supply - demand report next Tuesday. Reuters predicts that the US 2025/26 soybean production will be 4.229 billion bushels, and the ending inventory will be 292 million bushels [3] - The US soybean inventory as of December 1, 2025 is expected to be 3.25 billion bushels, a 4.8% increase year - on - year. South American soybean production is expected to rise slightly [3] - If the South American weather does not change significantly, the soybean meal price will follow the US soybean price and fluctuate weakly at the bottom [3] Soybean Oil and Palm Oil - Soybean oil and palm oil are continuing to rebound. Indonesia may raise the palm oil export tax to support its biodiesel policy [4] - The Malaysian palm oil market is at risk of further inventory accumulation. The overseas soybean supply - side risk is low, and the palm oil inventory pressure in Malaysia is expected to continue. The market is expected to be volatile [4] Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil - Rapeseed products show a differentiated trend. Rapeseed oil rises due to the increase in international crude oil prices, while rapeseed meal is pressured by the expectation of improved China - Canada economic and trade relations [6] - The Canadian Prime Minister will visit China next week. It is expected that the market will be in a weak and volatile state [6] Corn - Corn futures are oscillating at a high level. The spot price in Northeast China has risen slightly, and some deep - processing enterprises have raised the purchase price [7] - The overall inventory of ports, traders, and downstream is still low. The recent auction of China Grain Reserves Corporation's corn has a high transaction rate and premium. The Dalian corn futures will fluctuate widely in the short term [7] Live Pigs - Live pig futures are continuing to oscillate, and the spot price is slightly stronger. The price difference between fat and standard pigs is still high, but the utilization rate of second - fattening pens is low [8] - There may be an accelerated slaughter before the Spring Festival, and the supply pressure is large. In the medium - to - long - term, the pig price may form a double - bottom pattern, and it is recommended to short the 03 contract after a rebound [8] Eggs - The egg futures market shows a pattern of near - strong and far - weak. The spot price is stable. Due to the low replenishment in the second half of 2025, the egg - laying hen inventory will decline rapidly from January 2026 [9] - With pre - Spring Festival stocking, the spot price is expected to rise. It is recommended to take a long position in the first - half - year contracts of 2026 or adopt a long - near and short - far strategy [9]

2025 年 12 月 15 日 事件驱动 踏"浪"而行 ---2026 年菜系期货行情展望 傅博 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0016727 fubo2@gtht.com 报告导读： 我们的观点：全球菜籽供应宽松，国内菜系商品注意供应增加风险，菜系商品偏空配 我们的逻辑： 2025/26 年度全球菜籽产量同比大幅回升，全球菜籽供应预计将转为宽松。主要出口国的菜籽期初库存较低，但 是 2025/26 年度的菜籽产量创历史新高，预计全球菜系商品的供应压力将在 2026 年逐渐体现。在欧盟菜籽产量大幅 恢复、中加经贸关系不明朗、美国生柴政策不确定的情况下，全球菜系商品的进口需求目前看不乐观，将加剧加拿大 的出口压力，注意国际菜籽价格的下行风险。 2026年中国的菜系商品的供应受政策影响存在不确定性，注意关键时间节点、注意重大事件发生后的行情驱动。 在国内停止进口加拿大菜籽、菜粕和菜油后，国内菜系商品的供应收紧预期已经交易比较充分，由于性价比偏差，国 内菜油和菜粕的消费已经降至较低水平。在全球菜籽产量创纪录，主要出口国有出口压力的背景下，需要防范后续国 内菜籽、菜油、菜粕进口增加的风险。 风险提示：政策风险，天气风险 请 ...

(本文来自第一财经) 据商务部网站，11月14日，李成钢国际贸易谈判代表兼副部长在京会见加拿大国际贸易副部长斯图尔 特、副外长莫里森。双方就中加经贸关系和各自关注的议题进行沟通和交流。 ...

Report Investment Ratings - **Buy (★★★)**: Douyi [1] - **Bullish (★★☆)**: Rapeseed Meal [1] - **Slightly Bullish (★☆☆)**: Soybean Oil, Palm Oil, Soybean Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Corn [1] - **Neutral (☆☆☆)**: Douyi [1] - **Not Rated**: Live Hogs, Eggs [1] Core Views - The prices of agricultural products are mainly affected by factors such as Sino-US and Sino-Canadian economic and trade relations, supply and demand, and cost [2][3][4][6] - Different agricultural products show different trends and investment opportunities, and attention should be paid to policy adjustments and market supply and demand changes [3][4][7] Summary by Category Soybean and Related Products - **Soybean**: The price of Douyi is approaching the previous platform high and shows a high-level consolidation state. The purchase price of domestic soybeans is stable, and the price difference between domestic and imported soybeans has narrowed. The cost of imported soybeans in China has increased, and the crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state [2] - **Soybean Meal**: The futures price of soybean meal has risen, and the inventory has increased slightly. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the policy adjustment of China's soybean imports from the United States and look for opportunities to buy on dips [3] - **Soybean Oil**: The price of US soybean futures has rebounded, and the cost of imported soybeans in China has increased. The crushing profit of the domestic soybean market is still in a loss state. The price of soybean oil is under pressure, and attention should be paid to the supply of the origin and the performance of the soybean market [4] Palm Oil - The palm oil market in Malaysia still faces high inventory pressure, and the production in Indonesia is higher than expected. The export demand is weak, and there is a risk of short - term callback [4] Rapeseed Products - **Rapeseed Meal**: The futures price of rapeseed meal has risen significantly, mainly due to market trading on Sino - Canadian economic and trade relations. It is recommended to maintain a short - term long - position thinking [6] - **Rapeseed Oil**: The price of rapeseed oil is expected to be relatively weak, and it benefits from the listing of imported rapeseed oil from Russia [6] Corn - The futures price of Dalian corn is running strongly, but the supply of new corn in the Northeast is increasing, and the downstream demand is mainly rigid. The follow - up needs to pay attention to the import situation of corn, and the price may continue to run weakly at the bottom [7] Live Hogs - The spot price of live hogs has fallen, and the futures price has hit a new low. Due to the continuous recovery of production capacity and the pressure of subsequent slaughter, it is expected that the price of live hogs may have a second bottoming in the first half of next year [8] Eggs - The futures price of eggs is strong, and the far - month contract has hit a new high. The price of vegetables provides support for the price of eggs. The inventory of laying hens is still at a high level, and attention should be paid to the opportunity of short - selling in the fourth quarter [9]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference to discuss key recent work in the business sector and answer reporters' questions [1] - Li Chenggang, the international trade representative and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, led a delegation to Canada from the 24th to the 27th to co-chair the 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - The Chinese side expressed willingness to work with the U.S. to continue utilizing the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to resolve issues through equal dialogue and maintain a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [1] Group 2 - During the meeting in Ottawa, Li Chenggang and Canada's Deputy Minister of International Trade, Stewart, engaged in candid, pragmatic, and constructive communication regarding the improvement and development of bilateral economic and trade relations [1]

Group 1 - The Ministry of Commerce held a press conference to discuss key recent work in the business sector and answer reporters' questions [1] - Li Chenggang, the international trade representative and deputy minister of the Ministry of Commerce, led a delegation to Canada from the 24th to the 27th to co-chair the 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee [1] - The Chinese side expressed willingness to work with the U.S. to continue utilizing the China-U.S. economic and trade consultation mechanism to resolve issues through equal dialogue and maintain a healthy, stable, and sustainable development of China-U.S. economic and trade relations [1] Group 2 - During the meeting in Ottawa, both sides engaged in candid, pragmatic, and constructive communication regarding the improvement and development of bilateral economic and trade relations, addressing each other's economic and trade concerns, and promoting practical economic cooperation [1]

Group 1 - The 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee was held in Ottawa, Canada, focusing on improving bilateral economic and trade relations and addressing mutual concerns [1][3] - The meeting was described as a significant step in implementing the consensus reached during the phone call between the two countries' leaders [3] - Both parties expressed a willingness to manage differences constructively and expand cooperation in various fields, leveraging the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership [3] Group 2 - The meeting emphasized the importance of the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee as a platform for ongoing communication and achieving positive outcomes in the economic and trade sectors [3]

Core Points - The 28th China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee was co-hosted by China's Vice Minister of International Trade Negotiations Li Chenggang and Canada's Deputy Minister of International Trade Stewart in Ottawa, focusing on improving bilateral economic and trade relations [1] - The meeting was seen as an important step in implementing the consensus reached during the recent phone call between the two countries' leaders, with both sides having conducted substantial preparatory work beforehand [1] - Both parties engaged in constructive discussions on specific pathways to enhance the development of China-Canada economic and trade relations under the spirit of mutual respect and win-win cooperation [1] Summary by Sections - **Bilateral Relations**: The meeting aimed to address and manage economic concerns between China and Canada, leveraging the 55th anniversary of diplomatic relations and the 20th anniversary of the strategic partnership as opportunities for collaboration [1] - **Cooperation Mechanism**: Both sides agreed to continue utilizing the China-Canada Economic and Trade Joint Committee as a platform for ongoing communication, aiming to achieve positive outcomes in the economic and trade sectors [1] - **Future Prospects**: The discussions emphasized the importance of constructive approaches and practical actions to manage differences and expand cooperation in various fields [1]