2025 年 10 月 08 日 高波的鱼尾，难测的鱼头 本期要点：高波的鱼尾，难测的鱼头 上期我们提出市场或类似于 2020 年 8 月，将维持高位震荡格局，此 判断与后续市场走势基本吻合。 从行业表现的分化程度来看，各行业滚动一季度的收益率标准差近期 持续扩大。若当前"强者恒强"的格局在未来一至两周内延续，该分 歧度指标预计将突破 2024 年 9 月以来的峰值。历史经验显示，此类 指标的极值通常伴随市场风险偏好的提升而出现；但若后续缺乏推动 风险偏好进一步上行的新动力，行业间的分化程度可能已接近当前市 场的极限。 从交易拥挤度观察，虽然 TMT 板块的成交金额占比已处于历史第三 高位，但若将 TMT 与先进制造板块合并计算，其合计成交占比正逼近 历史最高水平。 尽管行业分歧度与拥挤度均属于偏左侧的参考指标，但它们的当前状 态可能暗示 TMT 板块行情已进入偏鱼尾阶段。由于其他板块目前仍 缺乏清晰的驱动逻辑，市场未能实现顺利切换，导致部分 TMT 领域转 入高位震荡，而仅有少数周期类板块出现小幅异动。在明确的风格或 板块切换信号出现前，建议整体维持现有配置结构，并可逐步尝试小 仓位的高低位调仓。 就大盘指 ...

Group 1 - The current technology bull market has been ongoing for a period, with leading stocks continuously reaching new highs, raising questions about its sustainability and potential for further growth [1] - Historical references from previous technology bull markets (2013-2015 and 2019-2021) provide valuable insights into the current market dynamics [1] Group 2 - In previous bull markets, the maximum gains for the ChiNext Index were 589.73% and 201.81%, while the CSI Technology 100 Index saw maximum gains of 457.03% and 156.04%. As of September 18, 2024, the current maximum gains for these indices are 113.67% and 110.35% respectively, indicating potential for further increases [2] - In the "Internet Bull" market, 31 industry indices saw maximum gains exceeding 100%, with the computer index soaring nearly 8 times. In the "Track Bull" market, 19 industry indices also exceeded 100%, with the power equipment industry index increasing over 3 times. Currently, only 6 industries have doubled, with the communication index rising over 180% [2] Group 3 - The duration of the current bull market has been approximately 1.5 years since the low point in 2024, while previous bull markets lasted around 3 years [3] Group 4 - Trading congestion is at historical highs, with the TMT sector's cumulative trading volume reaching nearly 95 trillion yuan since 2025, a nearly 20% increase from 2024 [4] - The TMT sector's trading volume accounted for over 46% of A-shares at one point this year, surpassing previous bull market peaks [4] - The weighted turnover rate for the TMT sector reached nearly 5.8%, exceeding previous bull market highs, indicating a high concentration of trading activity [4] Group 5 - Despite high trading volumes, much of it is driven by quantitative high-frequency trading, and the margin financing balance has exceeded the peak in 2015, but its market value ratio is still 50% lower than that year [5] - The sentiment indicator for A-share retail investors shows that while sentiment has increased, it has not reached the exuberant levels seen in mid-2015 or late 2020 [5] Group 6 - The TMT sector's high valuations are a concern, with the computer industry index's rolling P/E ratio exceeding 93 times, electronics over 70 times, media over 49 times, and communications over 47 times as of September 19, 2025 [6] - However, these P/E ratios are not at historical highs, with the computer, electronics, and communications sectors around the 50th percentile historically [7] Group 7 - The TMT sector's total market capitalization has surpassed 23 trillion yuan, accounting for over 22% of the total A-share market, marking a historical high [7] - The number of TMT stocks with a market capitalization exceeding 100 billion yuan has reached 34, the highest on record [7] Group 8 - The disparity between the performance of the real economy and financial markets is a global phenomenon, with the correlation between macroeconomic indicators and capital markets in China and the U.S. at a five-year low [8] - The current technology bull market is characterized by high-quality fundamentals and performance-driven characteristics, particularly in the AI computing industry, with companies like New Yisheng and Zhongji Xuchuang experiencing explosive growth in revenue and net profit [8] Group 9 - Institutional allocation in the TMT sector remains below historical peak levels, with public funds holding over 1.6 trillion yuan in TMT stocks, indicating potential for further investment [9] - The average holding ratio of public funds in the TMT sector is currently 5.73%, about 70% of the peak level during the last technology bull market, suggesting room for increased allocations [9]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flow - Leverage funds and newly issued public funds remain at high levels, with net inflow of leverage funds and new issuance of equity public funds continuing to be robust[10] - Southbound funds have seen a net inflow exceeding 460 billion over the past four months, averaging over 10 billion per week[10] - The total net inflow of leverage funds reached approximately 467 billion, while the total net inflow of equity public funds was 127 billion, maintaining a high percentile ranking of 88% and 95% respectively[11] Group 2: Trading Activity and Market Sentiment - Trading heat in the new energy vehicle sector increased by 16 percentage points to 57%, while the real estate sector rose by 7 percentage points to 77%[4] - The brokerage sector saw a decline of 20 percentage points to 42%, and the military industry dropped by 17 percentage points to 33%[4] - Retail investor net inflow in the A-share market reached 186.82 billion, marking a significant increase of 693.7 billion from the previous value, placing it in the 92.5 percentile over the past five years[4] Group 3: Market Trends and Investor Behavior - The Shanghai Composite Index rose from 2600 to 3400 primarily due to state-owned funds and retail investor inflows, with a notable increase in new fund issuance in recent months[5] - The recent week saw a significant increase in search interest for A-shares on Douyin, reaching a new high since April[4] - The overall sentiment in the ETF market improved, with a net inflow of 80.8 billion, reversing the previous outflow of 41.5 billion[25]

证 券 研 究 报 告 杠杆资金净流入重回高位 ——流动性&交易拥挤度&投资者温度计周报 2025年9月16日 证券分析师：姚佩 执业编号：S0360522120004 邮箱：yaopei@hcyjs.com 联系人：朱冬墨 邮箱：zhudongmo@hcyjs.com 本报告由华创证券有限责任公司编制 卖的出价或询价。本报告所载信息均为个人观点，并不构成对所涉及证券的个人投资建议。 请仔细阅读PPT后部分的分析师声明及免责声明。 @2021 华创 版权所有 核心结论 证 券 研 究 报 告 • 资金流动性： 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 偏股型公募新发份额 私募备案规模 北向成交占比 两融资金净流入 股票型ETF净申购 产业资本净减持 自媒体A搜索热度 新开户数量 本周 上期 1）资金供给端重回扩张：杠杆资金净流入重回高位，偏股型公募新发小幅下降，ETF净申购流出扩大，回购金额降 至历史低位； 2）资金需求端产业资本净减持规模扩张至历史高位，南向资金连续四月周均百亿以上净流入，累计净流入近4300 亿。 • 交易拥挤度：以过去四周成交额占比/市值占比（较全A）作为衡量主题行业交易热度的表征 ...

Core Viewpoint - The report highlights key indicators to monitor during a bull market, emphasizing macroeconomic metrics, trading activity, capital inflows, and asset valuation comparisons [2][3]. Group 1: Macroeconomic Indicators - Indicator 1: The ratio of market capitalization to GDP is currently at 85.6%, with a change of 18.5% from the start to the end of the current market cycle, indicating room for improvement compared to historical highs [5][16]. - Indicator 2: The ratio of market capitalization to household deposits stands at 73.2%, with a change of 15.7% during the current cycle, suggesting potential for further growth [5][19]. Group 2: Trading Activity - Indicator 3: Trading volume has increased from 1.6 trillion to a peak of 3.19 trillion, indicating a potential for further expansion as historical cycles have shown larger increases [6][22]. - Indicator 4: Trading congestion reached a maximum of 39.3%, up from 27.7%, reflecting a significant increase in trading activity [6][24]. - Indicator 5: The drawdown risk is currently at 5.9%, lower than previous cycles, while the profit-loss ratio is at 2.8, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario [6][26]. Group 3: Capital Inflows - Indicator 6: Margin financing balance is at 2.24 trillion, a 1.21 times increase from the starting point, with room for growth compared to previous cycles [8][28]. - Indicator 7: The number of new accounts opened has seen limited growth, with a ratio of 1.0 compared to the starting month, indicating potential for future increases [8][30]. - Indicator 8: The issuance of equity funds has a ratio of 1.1 compared to the starting month, which is relatively low compared to historical data [8][32]. Group 4: Asset Valuation Comparisons - Indicator 9: The equity risk premium (ERP) has decreased by 1.58% during the current cycle, which is a lower decline compared to previous cycles [10][34]. - Indicator 10: The difference between equity yields and bond yields has decreased by 1.08%, but remains at a relatively high level compared to historical averages [10][36].

Group 1: Macro Indicators - The market capitalization to GDP ratio is currently at 85.6%, indicating room for improvement compared to historical peaks[4] - The market capitalization to household deposits ratio stands at 73.2%, suggesting potential for growth[4] - The change in market capitalization relative to GDP during this bull market is 18.5%, which is relatively low compared to past bull markets[4] Group 2: Trading Activity - The trading volume increased from 1.6 trillion to a peak of 3.19 trillion, representing a doubling in volume[5] - The maximum turnover rate reached 2.76%, an increase of 0.99% from the starting point, indicating potential for further growth[5] - The trading congestion ratio peaked at 39.3%, up 11.5% from the starting point, which is considered high[5] Group 3: Risk and Profitability - The drawdown risk is currently at 5.9%, significantly lower than previous bull markets which were above 10%[6] - The profit-loss ratio is at 2.8, indicating a favorable risk-reward scenario, although there is still room for improvement compared to the 2014-2015 period[6] Group 4: Capital Inflows - The margin financing balance reached 2.24 trillion, a 21% increase from the starting point of 1.85 trillion[7] - The number of new accounts opened during this bull market peaked at 196.4 million, showing limited growth compared to previous bull markets[7] - The issuance of equity funds has a ratio of 1.1 compared to the starting month, which is relatively low compared to past bull markets[7] Group 5: Valuation Comparisons - The equity risk premium (ERP) has decreased by 1.58% during this bull market, which is considered a low decline compared to historical data[11] - The equity-bond yield spread has decreased by 1.08%, but remains at a relatively high level compared to previous periods[11]

Group 1 - The market shows signs of localized overheating, but it is not fully overheated [2][3] - Short-term market may experience slight corrections, but the overall extent is manageable [3] - The technology sector is expected to present significant investment opportunities due to trends in advanced manufacturing [3] Group 2 - Current A-share sentiment index is at a historically high level [4] - Multiple dimensions such as market liquidity and trading activity indicate a crowded market, particularly in sectors like chemicals, machinery, and electronics [5] - A high number of industries are currently in a state of persistent crowding, which may lead to market adjustments [5] Group 3 - Short-term investment opportunities are recommended in sectors such as non-ferrous metals, real estate, and aerospace [6][7] - Policy support and a shift of household savings towards capital markets are expected to provide strong backing for the market [6] - The overall profit growth of A-share listed companies is projected to turn positive by 2025, with significant elasticity in the technology innovation sector [6]

Group 1 - Current A-share market sentiment is at a historically high level, characterized by liquidity, asset pricing differences, and trading activity [1] - Several industries, including chemicals, building materials, light manufacturing, machinery, defense, automotive, home appliances, textiles, non-bank financials, electronics, communications, computers, and media, are triggering congestion indicators [1] - A high number of industries are in a sustained congestion state, indicating potential for market adjustments [1] Group 2 - A-share market showed strong fluctuations with sectors like liquor, non-ferrous metals, communication equipment, and aerospace performing well, while electronic chemicals, automotive, beauty care, and utilities lagged [2] - There is a notable shift of household savings towards capital markets, providing a continuous source of incremental funds [2] - The overall profit growth expectation for A-share listed companies is projected to turn positive by 2025, ending a four-year decline, with significant elasticity in the technology innovation sector [2] Group 3 - Following stabilization of overseas liquidity disturbances, the A-share market continued its trend of rising volume and price, with the Shanghai Composite Index nearing 3900 points and total market turnover exceeding 30 trillion [3] - There is a focus on the rotation opportunities in recently popular sectors and potential rebounds in relatively low-positioned sectors supported by recent policies [3] - The "anti-involution" policy and demand-side policies are expected to significantly influence the A-share market, with household savings entering the market being a crucial support for index strength [3]

Group 1: Liquidity and Fund Flows - Leverage funds continue to flow in, with net inflow of margin financing at approximately 288 billion CNY, maintaining a high level[9] - Southbound funds have seen a cumulative net inflow exceeding 270 billion CNY over the past three months, with weekly averages above 10 billion CNY[8] - The total net inflow of public equity funds increased to 105.4 billion CNY, up from 91.9 billion CNY[10] Group 2: Trading Activity and Market Sentiment - Trading heat in the military industry rose by 16 percentage points to 85%, while the semiconductor sector increased by 5 percentage points to 90%[4] - The Shanghai Composite Index reached a new high for the year, contributing to a slight increase in A-share search activity on social media platforms[7] - Retail investor net inflow decreased to 1,032.5 billion CNY, down by 316.2 billion CNY from the previous value, representing 52.1% of the past five years[4] Group 3: Sector Performance - The electronics sector saw a net inflow of 56 billion CNY, while the banking sector experienced a net outflow of 14.2 billion CNY[21] - The stock market's ETF saw a net outflow of 54.6 billion CNY, indicating a low sentiment level, positioned at the 23.8% percentile over the past three years[22] - The total amount of stock buybacks increased to 41.4 billion CNY, up from 36 billion CNY, reflecting an 85% percentile over the past three years[25]

Market Sentiment - The A-share market sentiment index has shown a slight decline but remains in an optimistic range, with trading congestion levels showing divergence and overall levels being relatively high [1][10] - The market sentiment reached its highest level of the year due to factors such as easing Middle Eastern geopolitical risks and expectations surrounding "anti-involution" policies, approaching the peak seen in July 2020 [1][11] - However, as policy expectations cool and overseas equity markets experience significant adjustments, the A-share market sentiment is trending downward, with the 5-day moving average of the sentiment index falling below the 20-day moving average [1][11] Earnings Expectations - The earnings expectations for A-shares remain weak, with the consensus net profit growth forecast for the CSI 300 index at 0.7%, down 2.8 percentage points from 2024 [3][4] - Despite a low base for earnings last year, the profit growth forecast for small-cap indices in 2025 is still low [3] - Economic stimulus is likely to increase in the second half of the year, which may help offset the impact of weak external demand and trade frictions, but the overall offsetting effect is expected to be moderate [3] Liquidity Environment - The liquidity environment remains supportive, with stock ETFs experiencing a net outflow of approximately 4.9 billion yuan, although the outflow scale is gradually shrinking [7][10] - Northbound capital saw a net inflow of around 4.7 billion yuan, marking a shift from previous net outflows [7][10] - Retail investors continue to show strong buying interest, with a net inflow of approximately 35.1 billion yuan, marking 12 consecutive weeks of net inflows [7][10] Trading Congestion - Trading congestion levels in the A-share market are showing significant divergence, with some indices experiencing rising congestion while others see a decline [10] - The trading congestion for indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 2000 has notably increased, while indices such as the CSI 300 and SSE 50 have seen a decrease [10] - Overall, while trading sentiment has surpassed the high point of October 2024, there is still a notable gap in trading congestion levels, indicating that bullish trading has not yet reached a significantly overheated state [10]