Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry chain prices are stabilizing, with a slight increase in polysilicon prices, indicating a gradual escape from the vicious cycle of low-price competition, which warrants ongoing attention [1][2]. Price Stability and Production Adjustments - The overall price of the industry chain remains stable, with polysilicon prices experiencing a slight increase. As of August 13, 2023, some companies have raised prices by 1 yuan per kilogram, while others maintained their prices [2][3]. - In July, polysilicon prices reached the cost line, leading to a significant increase in order volumes for leading companies, with some even clearing their inventories. To alleviate supply and demand pressure, some polysilicon manufacturers are planning coordinated production cuts, which, if implemented, could stabilize output in September [2]. - The component production in July was approximately 52.4 GW, slightly down from 53 GW in June, with expectations for August production to remain stable between 52-53 GW. The Chinese market continues to see demand for both distributed and centralized projects [3]. Regulatory Developments - The China Photovoltaic Industry Association has solicited opinions on the draft amendment to the Price Law, aiming to reflect the demands of the photovoltaic industry. This revision is expected to promote rational competition within the industry and provide legal backing for selling at or above the minimum cost price [3].

Core Viewpoint - The revision of the Price Law aims to address the rampant "involution" competition across various industries, which undermines sustainable development and innovation, by establishing clearer legal standards and responsibilities for price-related behaviors [1][2][6] Group 1: Issues in Current Market Competition - Industries such as livestock, photovoltaic, and electric vehicles are experiencing severe price wars, leading to overall losses and diminished profit margins [1] - The phenomenon of "involution" competition is characterized by companies sacrificing profits to gain market share, which ultimately harms the entire industry's innovation capacity and international competitiveness [1][5] - The current market is plagued by low-cost dumping and other unfair pricing practices that disrupt normal market order and threaten sustainable industry development [5] Group 2: Key Changes in the Price Law Revision - The revision introduces a shift from "setting levels" to "establishing mechanisms" for government pricing, promoting fair and lawful price competition [2] - It explicitly defines unfair pricing behaviors, including below-cost dumping to eliminate competitors, and prohibits coercive pricing practices [2][3] - New provisions address unfair pricing behaviors in the digital economy, targeting practices like "forced bundling" and "big data discrimination" that exploit market dominance [3] Group 3: Strengthening Legal Responsibilities - The revision significantly increases penalties for price violations, raising the maximum fine for failing to comply with pricing regulations from 5,000 yuan to 50,000 yuan [4] - It introduces legal responsibilities for businesses that refuse or provide false information during cost audits, enhancing enforcement capabilities [4] - The changes signal a commitment to higher costs for price violations, aiming to deter ineffective regulatory practices [4] Group 4: Implications for Market Dynamics - The revision reflects a respect for economic development laws and aims to protect market order, emphasizing the importance of fair competition [6] - By addressing "involution" competition, the law seeks to redirect focus from price wars to value-based competition, preserving reasonable profit margins for businesses [6]

Core Viewpoint - The photovoltaic industry is facing significant challenges due to low-price competition and overcapacity, prompting a call for regulatory reforms to ensure orderly market development and improve profitability [2][3][4]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - The photovoltaic sector has become a focal point for "anti-involution" strategies, with issues of homogenized low-price competition and periodic overcapacity being particularly pronounced [3]. - The recent draft of the Price Law has garnered attention as it is closely related to the need for regulatory measures in the photovoltaic industry [2]. Group 2: Regulatory Actions - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is expediting the revision of the Price Law to combat low-price disorderly competition and to guide companies towards rational pricing [4]. - Industry organizations are also taking action, advocating for controlled capacity expansion and resisting unfair competition practices such as exporting below cost [4]. Group 3: Market Outlook - The revision of the Price Law is expected to establish clearer standards for identifying low-price dumping and enhance cost monitoring, providing a legal basis for addressing "involutionary" price wars [4]. - As the industry shifts back to orderly competition, there is potential for price recovery and profitability improvement, supported by possible supply-side reform policies [4]. - Companies with product differentiation, high-end market positioning, and strong brand manufacturing capabilities are likely to lead in performance recovery and long-term growth [4][5].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is accelerating the revision of the pricing law to address low-price disorderly competition and promote orderly competition within industries [1] Group 1: Pricing Law Revision - The NDRC is working on a draft revision of the pricing law that clarifies the standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors such as low-price dumping [1] - The focus will be on addressing behaviors that aim to eliminate competitors or monopolize the market through below-cost pricing [1] - The scope of low-price dumping regulations will now include services, and the draft is currently open for public consultation [1] Group 2: Policy Implementation and Industry Oversight - The NDRC plans to enhance policy promotion and reminders, targeting industries with significant "involution" competition issues [1] - There will be targeted cost investigations to understand production and operational conditions, encouraging companies to self-regulate their pricing behaviors [1] - The NDRC emphasizes that competition must adhere to rules and boundaries to prevent quality decline, service reduction, and infringement issues that harm consumer rights and hinder industry development [1] Group 3: Future Directions - The NDRC will continue to enforce laws and regulations to comprehensively address low-price disorderly competition [1] - Clear governance measures will be established to guide companies towards scientific and rational pricing, effectively regulating market price order and promoting orderly competition within industries [1]

Core Viewpoint - The revision of the Price Law is necessary to adapt to new circumstances and improve the rule of law in pricing, aiming to regulate market price order and curb "involution" competition, thereby protecting the legitimate rights and interests of consumers and operators, and maintaining a fair competitive market environment [1][3]. Group 1: Legislative Background - The draft for the revision of the Price Law was publicly solicited for opinions on July 24, marking the first amendment in 27 years since its implementation in 1998 [1]. - The revision is spearheaded by the National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation, focusing on current issues such as "price involution" [1][2]. Group 2: New Pricing Mechanisms - The revision aims to construct a new pricing mechanism from an institutional perspective, moving beyond simple amendments to the original text [2]. - The draft clarifies that government-guided prices are not limited to benchmark prices and their fluctuation ranges, allowing for a more flexible pricing mechanism that reflects market supply and demand [2][3]. Group 3: Regulation of Unfair Pricing Practices - The draft specifies standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, including low-price dumping, price collusion, price gouging, and price discrimination [3]. - It prohibits public enterprises and industry associations from leveraging their influence to enforce bundled sales or charge fees improperly [3]. Group 4: Government's Role in Market Regulation - The government plays a crucial role in regulating and adjusting market prices, especially in areas of significant public interest or severe market failure [3][4]. - The revised Price Law is designed to work in conjunction with the Anti-Monopoly Law and the Anti-Unfair Competition Law to create a comprehensive legal regulatory system [4].

Core Viewpoint - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) is taking steps to address low-price disorderly competition in the market, emphasizing the need for legal and regulatory governance to ensure fair competition and market order [1] Group 1: Regulatory Actions - The NDRC is accelerating the revision of the Price Law, which will clarify standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors such as low-price dumping and will include services in the scope of regulation [1] - The draft revision is currently open for public consultation, inviting feedback from various sectors of society [1] Group 2: Industry Focus - The NDRC plans to conduct targeted cost investigations in industries with significant "involution" competition issues to better understand production and operational conditions [1] - The aim is to encourage enterprises to self-regulate their pricing behaviors and to promote rational pricing strategies [1] Group 3: Future Directions - The NDRC will continue to enforce legal and regulatory measures to comprehensively address low-price disorderly competition, guiding enterprises towards scientific and rational pricing to effectively regulate market price order [1]

Group 1: Economic Measures - The fourth batch of 69 billion yuan for consumer goods replacement will be allocated in October, completing the annual plan of 300 billion yuan [1] - The "two重" construction project list of 800 billion yuan has been fully allocated, with 735 billion yuan of central budget investment also nearly disbursed [3] - The National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) will promote effective investment and enhance the system to leverage government investment to stimulate social investment [7] Group 2: Artificial Intelligence - There is a strong demand for the application of artificial intelligence, marking a critical window for its implementation [2] - The NDRC plans to advance the large-scale commercialization of artificial intelligence, leveraging China's complete industrial system and large market scale [6] Group 3: Regulatory Reforms - The NDRC is revising the pricing law to address unfair pricing behaviors, including predatory pricing below cost, and will seek public input on the draft [4] - Measures will be taken to address "involution" competition through legal revisions, policy issuance, and industry self-regulation [5] - The NDRC will govern disorderly competition among enterprises and standardize local investment attraction behaviors [9] Group 4: Private Sector Involvement - The NDRC will promote greater participation of private enterprises in national major project construction [10] - There is a commitment to prevent blind following and excessive competition in emerging sectors while encouraging innovation [11]

Core Viewpoint - The draft amendment to the Price Law aims to regulate market pricing order and provide legal grounds for addressing "involutionary" competition, particularly through the establishment of standards for identifying predatory pricing and enhancing cost supervision [1][2][3]. Group 1: Regulating Market Pricing Order - The amendment emphasizes the need to improve standards for identifying predatory pricing, stating that operators must not engage in below-cost pricing to eliminate competitors or monopolize the market [2][3]. - Cost supervision is highlighted as a key focus, with legal responsibilities outlined for operators who refuse or provide false information during cost audits [2][3]. - The macro root cause of "involutionary" competition is identified as strong supply and weak demand, with the need for market-oriented and legal approaches to regulation [3][4]. Group 2: Legal Basis for Addressing Price Wars - The draft provides a legal foundation for preventing below-cost sales, which is crucial for addressing the issue of "involution" in various industries, particularly those with high marketization and significant employment impact [3][4]. - Recent legal regulations, such as the implementation of the Fair Competition Review Regulations and the revision of the Anti-Unfair Competition Law, support the framework for combating predatory pricing [3][4][5][6][7]. Group 3: Government Pricing Mechanism - The draft proposes a shift from fixed pricing levels to a more flexible pricing mechanism, allowing for cost-linked adjustments and periodic reviews [5]. - Enhanced price cost supervision is mandated, requiring verification of the authenticity of operators' costs and the elimination of unreasonable expenses [5]. - The government pricing mechanism is expected to better reflect market supply and demand, particularly in public utilities and natural monopoly sectors [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core View of the Report The report analyzes the market conditions of various metals including precious metals, copper, alumina, electrolytic aluminum, etc. It points out that market sentiment is affected by factors such as trade agreements, tariff policies, and supply - demand relationships. Precious metals are expected to maintain high - level fluctuations; most metals are facing price pressures due to different factors, but there are also potential trading opportunities in different scenarios [3][5][8]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Precious Metals - **Market Review**: London gold fell for three consecutive days, closing down 0.92% at $3337.18 per ounce; London silver fell 2.39% to $38.17 per ounce. The US dollar index rose 0.219% to 97.66, and the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell to 4.384%. The RMB exchange rate against the US dollar fell 0.17% to 7.168 [3]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement with a 15% tariff on EU goods, $600 billion in EU investment in the US, and EU purchases of US military equipment and energy products. The probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in July is 97.4%, and in September is 35.9% [3]. - **Logic Analysis**: As reciprocal tariffs are about to take effect and the US - EU trade agreement is reached, market risk - aversion sentiment eases. However, due to uncertainties in US tariffs, policies, and the Fed's independence, precious metals are expected to remain volatile at high levels [3][5]. - **Trading Strategy**: Pay attention to the progress of China - US tariff negotiations, the Fed's interest - rate meeting, and US non - farm and PCE data [5]. Copper - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai copper 2509 contract closed at 78,800 yuan per ton, down 0.67%. LME copper closed at $9796 per ton, down 0.59%. LME inventory increased by 3700 tons to 128,000 tons, and COMEX inventory increased by 776 tons to 248,000 tons [7]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the US will determine chip - related tariff policies in two weeks [7]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and the approaching tariff deadline may impact the market. Supply is increasing, and it's the consumption off - season, so the upside of copper prices is limited [8]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider buying deep - out - of - the - money call options at low prices [9]. Alumina - **Market Review**: The night - session of the alumina 2509 contract fell 217 yuan to 3243 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [11]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law. Some alumina enterprises are affected by natural disasters; inventory and production capacity data have changed [11][12][16]. - **Logic Analysis**: The policy of eliminating backward production capacity may impact the market. Inventory is increasing, and the supply - demand surplus is expanding. Pay attention to the change in the spot supply - demand pattern [17]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term high - level fluctuations; hold off on trading for now [14][17]. Electrolytic Aluminum - **Market Review**: The night - session of the Shanghai aluminum 2509 contract fell 135 yuan per ton to 20,615 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions rose [20]. - **Important Information**: Aluminum inventory increased, and the US - EU is discussing steel and aluminum tariffs. Some enterprises are operating at full capacity [21]. - **Logic Analysis**: Macro - factors and inventory changes affect the market. Pay attention to the opportunity of the spread between contracts [23][25]. - **Trading Strategy**: Aluminum prices are under short - term pressure; consider a long - short spread strategy for 09 - 12 contracts [26]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Review**: The night - session of the cast aluminum alloy 2511 contract fell 155 yuan to 19,995 yuan per ton. Spot prices in different regions showed different changes [28]. - **Important Information**: Inventory increased, and production data changed [28][29]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is restricted by scrap aluminum shortage, and demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the arbitrage opportunity between the spot and futures [31]. - **Trading Strategy**: Prices are under pressure with aluminum prices; consider arbitrage when the spread is above 300 - 400 yuan [32]. Zinc - **Market Review**: The LME zinc market fell 0.4% to $2829 per ton; the Shanghai zinc 2509 contract fell 0.57% to 22,715 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [34]. - **Important Information**: Zinc ore inventory at ports decreased, and the processing fee is expected to rise [34]. - **Logic Analysis**: The supply of zinc ore is sufficient, and the supply of refined zinc is expected to increase. It's the consumption off - season, and the downstream demand is weak [36]. - **Trading Strategy**: Hold short positions; buy put options [37]. Lead - **Market Review**: The LME lead market fell 0.12% to $2020.5 per ton; the Shanghai lead 2509 contract fell 0.38% to 16,845 yuan per ton. Spot trading was average [39]. - **Important Information**: The cost of recycled lead is high, and the raw material supply is a problem [40][41]. - **Logic Analysis**: The cost of recycled lead provides support for lead prices. The production of lead smelters is affected, and the terminal consumption of lead - acid batteries has improved slightly [41]. - **Trading Strategy**: Temporarily hold off on trading; consider a small - position long at low prices; sell put options [42]. Nickel - **Market Review**: LME nickel fell to $15,265 per ton, and the Shanghai nickel main contract fell to 121,430 yuan per ton. Spot premiums changed [44]. - **Important Information**: Some nickel - related projects in Indonesia have made strategic adjustments [45]. - **Logic Analysis**: Nickel prices are affected by the market sentiment. There is a risk of potential demand decline, and the supply - demand pattern in August may be similar to that in July [46]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading follows the macro - environment; sell deep - out - of - the - money put options [46]. Stainless Steel - **Market Review**: The main SS2509 contract fell to 129,785 yuan per ton. Spot prices of cold - rolled and hot - rolled products are given [48][50]. - **Important Information**: Some steel mills are under maintenance, and tax policies have been adjusted [51]. - **Logic Analysis**: External demand is restricted, and speculative demand is strong. The cost is affected by raw materials, and the market is trading based on macro - logic [52]. - **Trading Strategy**: Short - term trading returns to the oscillation range; hold off on trading for now [53]. Industrial Silicon - **Market Review**: The industrial silicon futures rose first and then fell, and the spot prices strengthened [55]. - **Important Information**: The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation are amending the Price Law [56]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply and demand have changed, and the short - term bullish sentiment may fade [56]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions; hold protective put options; participate in arbitrage strategies [57]. Polysilicon - **Market Review**: The polysilicon futures fluctuated and strengthened, then fell. Spot prices are given [59]. - **Important Information**: The photovoltaic industry's development in the first half of 2025 is reviewed, and the national photovoltaic installation scale prediction is adjusted [61]. - **Logic Analysis**: Supply is expected to increase, and there may be an oversupply in August. The futures may open lower, and pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. - **Trading Strategy**: Consider a long - position strategy at low prices if the price drops significantly; pay attention to the capacity - integration plan [61]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Review**: The main 2509 contract rose to 90,520 yuan per ton, and spot prices increased [63]. - **Important Information**: The Guangzhou Futures Exchange is promoting the research and listing of some futures products and has adjusted the trading limit [63][66]. - **Logic Analysis**: The market is trading based on the expectation of mine closures. The price may fluctuate greatly, and pay attention to regulatory policies [65][66]. - **Trading Strategy**: Withdraw from long positions for now; consider long - positions after a sufficient correction; hold put options; participate in far - month contract reverse arbitrage [65][66]. Tin - **Market Review**: The Shanghai tin 2509 contract fell to 268,130 yuan per ton. Spot prices and processing fees are given [68]. - **Important Information**: Trump announced a US - EU trade agreement, and the global economic growth forecast is lowered [68][70]. - **Logic Analysis**: Tin prices fell after rising. The supply of tin ore is tight, and the demand is affected by the off - season. Pay attention to the resumption of production in Myanmar and consumption recovery signals [70]. - **Trading Strategy**: Tin prices fluctuate with the market sentiment; hold off on trading for now [70].

Key Points - The National Development and Reform Commission and the State Administration for Market Regulation have released a draft amendment to the Price Law for public consultation, marking the first revision since its implementation in 1998 [1] - The revision aims to address social concerns and is timely, focusing on three main highlights [1] Highlight 1: Addressing "Involution" Competition - The amendment clarifies the standards for identifying unfair pricing behaviors, particularly enhancing the criteria for recognizing predatory pricing. The scope of predatory pricing has been expanded to include both goods and services, and the focus is on whether there is intent to disrupt competition or monopolize the market [2] Highlight 2: Targeting "Big Data Price Discrimination" - The draft includes provisions that prohibit operators from using data, algorithms, and technology to engage in unfair pricing practices. This addresses the growing issue of "big data price discrimination," where consumers face different prices for the same product based on their browsing history or device used [2] Highlight 3: Increased Penalties for Pricing Violations - The proposed changes increase the penalties for violations of pricing regulations, raising the maximum fines for serious offenses. This aims to deter operators from engaging in price violations and to maintain market order [3]