最近有本名叫《以日为鉴》的书颇为流行，全书的论点并不新奇，还是以日本"失去的三十年"，作为我们的镜鉴。大概恰逢最近的社会情绪，让人看了既 有隔岸观火之感，又隐隐有些担忧。 客观而言，这本书对于日本问题的回溯是非常详细的，毕竟用了超过十万字，但可能是作者自身的兴趣原因，书中竟很少着墨于日本本土的消费市场，寥 寥几处，也只简单概括为"低欲望社会"。 01 选择性消费升级 但当整个行业走出低价内卷，却发现情况确实和想象的不一样，原来中国并没有走进所谓的"消费更年期"。 可以为这个观点提供佐证的，是近日由北京大学国家发展研究院等机构联合编制的《中国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）第三期报告》（以下简称报告），在 远离"618"与"双11"的2025年第三季度，全国线上消费品牌指数（CBI）依然达到了62.65，较2023年同期增长4.4%，2024年同期增长0.92%，而且2023年以 来每个季度同比都是增长的。 要注意，消费品牌指数（CBI）并不是一个消费规模的概念，其核心是体现消费者在购物中，购买高品质品牌商品的比例，当更多人选择购买高品质的品 牌商品，而非白牌，这个指数才会上升。指数利用了中国最大的电商平台淘宝全量大 ...

Core Insights - The article discusses a new implementation plan aimed at enhancing the adaptability of supply and demand in the consumer goods sector, focusing on the clothing industry as a key area for growth and innovation [1][3]. Group 1: Market Trends and Consumer Behavior - The rise of the "weight management" trend has significantly boosted sales of activewear, such as yoga clothing, with live-streaming sales reaching over 200,000 yuan per session and attracting more than 100,000 viewers [2]. - Generation Z is identified as a core consumer group in outdoor sports, with 80% of outdoor users belonging to this demographic, showcasing strong purchasing power and brand loyalty [2]. - The outdoor consumption market in China is projected to reach 190 billion yuan by 2024, growing at a rate 1.3 times that of the overall sports industry [2]. Group 2: Supply-Side Transformation - The clothing industry is transitioning from merely meeting functional needs to creating value through diversified, scenario-based, and emotional supply [4]. - Companies like 真维斯 have achieved significant growth, with online sales increasing from 460 million yuan to 6 billion yuan over five years, marking a growth rate of over 1300% [4]. - The response time to market trends has been reduced from 90 days to 7 days, allowing for efficient management of over 30,000 SKUs and processing around 200,000 orders daily [4]. Group 3: Innovation and Consumer Engagement - The competition among brands is shifting towards "value storytelling," where emotional, aesthetic, and service values are becoming more important than standard functionality [5]. - Platforms like 得物 are witnessing significant growth in categories appealing to younger consumers, emphasizing the importance of emotional value in purchasing decisions [5]. - Companies are encouraged to enhance digital infrastructure and integrate design and supply chain platforms to lower innovation costs and improve supply-demand matching [6][7]. Group 4: Future Directions and Recommendations - The clothing industry is advised to innovate in design and manufacturing, promoting the development of functional and eco-friendly materials through collaboration with fabric manufacturers [7]. - There is a push for creating new consumption scenarios and models, such as flagship stores and concept shops, to meet the demand for "light ownership" [7].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, focusing on expanding domestic demand and promoting consumption as a strategic foundation for economic growth [2][3]. Group 1: Key Concepts of the Implementation Plan - The core concept of the implementation plan is "adaptability," which emphasizes a two-way engagement between supply and demand, ensuring that consumer preferences guide production [3][4]. - The plan outlines the goal of establishing three trillion-level consumption sectors and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots by 2027, marking a shift from directional guidance to precise policy measures [3][4]. Group 2: Targeted Consumption Areas - The three trillion-level consumption sectors include elderly products, smart connected vehicles, and consumer electronics, while the ten hundred-billion-level hotspots encompass baby products, smart wearables, cosmetics, fitness equipment, outdoor goods, pet supplies, civilian drones, trendy toys, jewelry, and national fashion [4]. - The elderly products sector already has a solid foundation, while the smart connected vehicle sector reflects a logic of "incremental expansion," and consumer electronics' potential is driven by AI technology [4]. Group 3: Supply-Side Revolution - The core logic of promoting consumption is a supply-side revolution that aims to create new demand through improved production quality and relevance [5][6]. - The plan's three policy pillars include comprehensive integration of "AI+" actions, flexible manufacturing transformations, and mandatory upgrades to standard systems [5][6]. Group 4: Demand-Side Considerations - The plan also addresses the need for demand-side policies to match the rich supply-side offerings, emphasizing the importance of stable income expectations for consumer spending [6]. - Successful consumption stimulation requires a dual-driven approach from both supply and demand sides, with a focus on creating new jobs through AI and ensuring that technological advancements translate into increased worker income [6]. Group 5: Overall Implications - The implementation plan represents a significant upgrade in China's consumption policy, leveraging AI empowerment, flexible manufacturing, and standard upgrades to create a viable market potential [6]. - The success of supply-side initiatives is contingent upon effective demand-side matching, highlighting the need for policies that not only enhance product intelligence and scene richness but also address consumer income stability [6].

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, promoting consumption upgrades to lead industrial upgrades and achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand [1][3] Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The plan outlines 19 key tasks across five areas, focusing on industries such as smart connected vehicles, smart home products, consumer electronics, modern textiles, food, and green building materials [1] - It emphasizes the development of innovative applications and the creation of flagship products and enterprises, along with establishing testing platforms in various consumer goods sectors [1] Group 2: Expanding Product Supply - The plan advocates for the development of leisure and sports products, targeting new demands from event economies and outdoor activities, and promoting high-quality sports equipment [2] - It aims to diversify product offerings for specific demographics, including children's products, quality student supplies, trendy items, and age-appropriate products [2] Group 3: Innovation and Internal Demand Activation - By 2027, the plan targets a significant optimization of the consumer goods supply structure, aiming to create three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [3] - The policy is expected to positively impact various industries, including smart vehicles, home products, and health-related goods, by fostering technological innovation and responding to new market demands [3][4] Group 4: Focus on Specific Demographics - The policy particularly addresses the needs of specific consumer groups, promoting the refinement and quality enhancement of products for children, students, and the elderly [4] - New consumption formats such as live e-commerce and instant retail are expected to develop in an orderly manner, injecting vitality into core business districts and new product launches [4]

Core Viewpoint - The implementation plan aims to enhance the adaptability of supply and demand in consumer goods, promoting consumption upgrades to lead industrial upgrades and achieving a dynamic balance between supply and demand [1][2]. Group 1: Key Areas of Focus - The plan outlines 19 key tasks across five areas, focusing on industries such as smart connected vehicles, smart home products, consumer electronics, modern textiles, food, and green building materials [1]. - It emphasizes the development of leisure and sports products, targeting new demands from event economies, outdoor economies, and winter sports, while promoting high-quality sports equipment [1][2]. Group 2: Targeted Consumer Needs - The plan aims to match diverse consumer needs by enriching the supply of baby products, enhancing quality student supplies, expanding trendy products, and optimizing products for the elderly [2][3]. - It also seeks to cultivate new consumption scenarios and business models, including the promotion of product launches, orderly development of platform consumption, and regulated shared consumption [2]. Group 3: Future Goals - By 2027, the plan targets a significant optimization of the consumer goods supply structure, aiming to create three trillion-level consumption fields and ten hundred-billion-level consumption hotspots [2]. - By 2030, it envisions a high-quality development pattern where supply and consumption interact positively, with a steady increase in consumption's contribution to economic growth [2]. Group 4: Industry Impact - The implementation of the plan is expected to positively impact multiple industries, including smart connected vehicles, smart home products, consumer electronics, and green building materials, driving technological innovation through the creation of flagship products and innovative application scenarios [2][3]. - The sports and leisure product sectors are anticipated to benefit from new demands arising from event and outdoor economies, gaining new growth momentum [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles emphasizes the shift in China's consumption policy from simple stimulus measures to a more systematic approach that enhances supply-demand compatibility, aiming to release consumption potential and facilitate economic circulation [1][3] - The structural transformation on the demand side is driven by rising GDP per capita exceeding $10,000 and a middle-income group surpassing 400 million, leading to a shift from imitation consumption to personalized, quality, and scenario-based consumption [2] - The proactive changes on the supply side are responding to and creating new consumer demands, with companies leveraging big data and AI for precise demand insights, leading to the rise of flexible manufacturing and innovative collaborations [2][3] Group 2 - The collaboration between policy guidance and market mechanisms is accelerating the formation of a virtuous cycle, with new consumption models and scenarios flourishing, and targeted subsidies replacing blanket policies [3] - The transition from "stimulation" to "adaptation" reflects a precise understanding of consumption patterns and is essential for high-quality economic development, creating a positive feedback loop between consumption and supply [3] - Continuous release of policy dividends, ongoing technological innovations, and vibrant market dynamics are expected to enhance the smooth interaction between consumption and supply, providing solid support for stable economic growth [3]

Group 1: Current Market Trends - The retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,326 billion yuan in May, with a year-on-year growth of 6.4%, marking the highest level since 2024[10] - The growth rate of total retail sales from January to May 2025 was 5%, significantly higher than the 3.5% growth in 2024[10] - The "old-for-new" policy has led to impressive growth in specific sectors, with retail sales of home appliances and audio-visual equipment increasing by 53% year-on-year in May[12] Group 2: Quality Consumption Era - China has entered a quality consumption era, where consumers prioritize product quality over price, even if it requires more time and effort to find high-quality products[18] - The demand for quality consumption is closely linked to the transparency of product quality information and the reduction of trial-and-error consumption[18] - Successful products like "Nezha" and "Labubu" illustrate the importance of quality supply in creating demand, highlighting that good supply can effectively stimulate consumption[24] Group 3: Strategies for Boosting Consumption - To stimulate consumption, it is essential to stabilize income expectations and improve employment quality, focusing on policies that support the real estate and stock markets[34] - The government should encourage the creation of high-quality supply to drive demand, aligning with the emphasis on "leading new demand with high-quality supply"[33] - Key areas for policy focus include stabilizing the real estate market to counter negative wealth effects, enhancing stock market stability to improve residents' financial income, and ensuring employment quality to stabilize income expectations[34][37][39]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the resurgence of consumerism, particularly among Generation Z, as seen in the popularity of brands like LABUBU, indicating a shift from previous discussions of "consumption downgrade" to a renewed focus on consumption as a primary economic driver [1][2] - The article discusses the historical context of consumption, noting that in pre-modern times, the concept of consumption was limited, with individuals primarily using items until they were exhausted, reflecting a lack of individual consumer identity [2][4] - It highlights the evolution of consumerism, where the relationship between consumers and producers has become more detached, leading to exploitation and a focus on marketing and branding over practical utility [3][8] Group 2 - The article outlines the transformative impact of various revolutions—personal, material, urban, and national—on the emergence of modern consumerism, which has reshaped societal structures and individual identities [4][5] - It points out that while consumerism has led to societal tensions and conflicts, it has also contributed to the development of a resilient society by fostering individual expression and collective action [7][12] - The article argues that the shift from an investment-oriented economy to a consumption-oriented one represents not just an economic change but a broader social revolution, necessitating a supportive environment for diverse expressions of individuality and interests [12]

Core Viewpoint - The rise of new consumption, driven by technology and policy, is reshaping consumer behavior and market dynamics, particularly among the Z generation [1][2]. Group 1: Drivers of New Consumption - The dual drivers of policy and technology, including the "trade-in" policy and the application of AI and big data, are accelerating the integration of online and offline channels [2]. - The demand for consumption upgrades, particularly from the Z generation, is pushing the growth of emotional value sectors such as trendy toys and pet economy [2]. - The potential of lower-tier markets is being unlocked, with high-cost performance domestic brands optimizing supply chains to penetrate these areas, leading to significant growth for certain industries and companies [2]. Group 2: Differences from Traditional Consumption - New consumption is characterized by a focus on "emotional value" and "supply creating demand," catering to the self-satisfaction and social needs of the Z generation, contrasting with traditional consumption that relies on material needs and demographic dividends [3]. - In terms of valuation methods, new consumption's high growth potential supports higher valuations, while traditional consumption is anchored by stable cash flows and dividend yields [4]. - The risk characteristics differ, with new consumption being highly volatile and sensitive to market emotions, whereas traditional consumption is more defensive but shows weak demand growth [4].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint highlights the significant impact of policy incentives on consumer spending, with a total sales volume exceeding 1.1 trillion yuan in the used-for-new consumption market by the end of May, and Shenzhen alone contributing over 30 billion yuan in home appliances and automotive consumption [1] - The "618 shopping festival" initiated by JD.com saw remarkable sales growth, with over 500 home appliance brands achieving a year-on-year increase of more than 10 times in the first hour, and leading domestic brands experiencing growth rates exceeding 500% [1] - The current policy effectively addresses the "consumer upgrade" dilemma in China, where over 6 billion units of consumer goods exist, by alleviating residents' cost concerns and boosting enterprise confidence through sales [1] Group 2 - Despite the evident effectiveness of policy stimulation, there are concerns that concentrated consumption of durable goods may limit future growth, particularly in sectors like fuel vehicles and home decoration materials [2] - The data from JD.com's "618" indicates a significant shift towards green consumption, with traditional categories like tire maintenance and automotive products growing over 30 times, while sales of electric vehicle charging equipment surged tenfold [2] - The sustainability of consumer enthusiasm post-policy incentives relies on the transition from "policy infusion" to "product innovation," emphasizing the need for companies to leverage the subsidy window to create lasting appeal through technological advancements [2]