整体来看，全球债市的波动为美港股企业带来融资成本上的挑战，同时也强化了市场对盈利质量与现金 流稳定性的关注。长期而言，具备稳健财务和核心竞争力的公司更有可能穿越周期，获得估值溢价。对 于希望深入理解这一趋势的投资者，Doo Financial可以提供更多与美港股企业融资和盈利前景相关的资讯 与趋势解读，帮助他们在债市波动的环境中形成更客观的配置思路。 重要声明：上述内容及观点仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议。 港股市场则面临不同状况。一方面，整体估值水平较低，部分企业仍具备融资吸引力；另一方面，由于 港股对国际资金与美元利率高度敏感，债市波动往往通过融资渠道放大企业压力。尤其是高杠杆地产与 部分传统行业，受债市波动影响更为明显，而具备政策支持与现金流优势的新经济和消费板块，或有望 在逆势中强化竞争力。 随着全球债市波动与利率不确定性加剧，企业盈利能力将更依赖内生现金流和持续创新。资本结构优 化、运营效率提升、以及政策环境的支持，可能成为企业抵御债市风险、稳定盈利的关键。美股强调盈 利韧性与行业龙头优势，港股则在估值洼地和政策红利中寻求修复机会。 近期全球债市大幅波动，美国国债收益率水平持续反复，主要经济体利差结构 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of solid foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection to enhance investment success [2] Group 2 - The article discusses the significant volatility in the bond market, which can amplify liquidity risks, potentially triggering a downward spiral in bond funds due to concentrated redemptions by investors seeking to lock in profits or cut losses [3]

其一，宽松的资金面为债市营造良好的金融环境。 近期，债市出现较大波动，引发市场讨论。数据显示，8月1日至9月12日，中证全债指数（净价）下跌 1.11%。其中，备受市场关注的10年期国债收益率重返1.8%上方。 截至7月末，债券市场托管余额超过190万亿元。商业银行、保险机构、公募基金等金融机构是债市的主 要投资者，同时，众多个人投资者通过持有各类资管产品间接参与债市投资。此番债市波动难免引发部 分投资者的担忧。 应如何看待近期债市波动？笔者认为，债券市场天然具有波动属性，短期回调属于正常市场现象。从中 长期视角看，支撑债市向好的根本逻辑未变，多重因素共振有望推动债市健康、平稳运行。 近期债市的调整，受到"股债跷跷板"效应、债市前期上涨较快等多重因素共同影响。但从中长期来 看，"买方力量"将持续推动债市平稳运行。从国际经验看，市场利率趋势一旦形成，短期内难以改变。 在当前利率下行的背景下，居民对银行理财、公募基金、保险等资管产品的配置需求持续增长，推动金 融机构加大对债券的配置力度。数据显示，截至今年上半年末，险资、银行理财资金对债券的配置比例 均较年初有所提升。长期来看，险企、商业银行、银行理财子公司、公募 ...

Group 1 - In August, the yields on 30-year government bonds in Germany and France rose by approximately 15 and 27 basis points, reaching the highest levels since 2011 [1][2] - The global bond market faced renewed pressure due to persistent inflation concerns and increased fiscal spending and refinancing needs, leading to a decline in investor risk appetite for long-term government bonds [1][2] - Japan's long-term bond yields hit a historical high, while the UK long-end bond yields are expected to record the largest monthly increase since December of the previous year [1][2] Group 2 - The French market is under scrutiny as Prime Minister François Bayrou announced a confidence vote regarding debt reduction plans on September 8 [2] - If the political crisis in France worsens, the spread between French and German bond yields could potentially widen to 100 basis points for the first time since 2012 [2] - The yield on French 10-year government bonds reached a five-month high of 3.54% before slightly retreating to 3.49%, while the German 10-year yield increased by 1 basis point to 2.70% [2] Group 3 - A supply peak in the European and US bond markets is anticipated in the coming months, with an expected issuance of over €100 billion (approximately $117 billion) in European government bonds in September and October [4] - Concerns about supply-demand imbalances have intensified due to weak demand observed in recent auctions of Japanese 10-year and US 30-year bonds [4] - Analysts suggest that as supply surges, investors will require higher yields as compensation, which will further increase market volatility [4] Group 4 - Concerns regarding the sustainability of US fiscal policy and the independence of the Federal Reserve are driving up the risk premium on US Treasury bonds [5] - If inflationary pressures do not fully subside and the Federal Reserve relaxes its policies too quickly due to political pressure, it could trigger a new surge in long-term yields and increased volatility in the bond market [5]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the importance of solid foundational knowledge in investment and fund selection to achieve better investment outcomes [2] - The article discusses the recent performance of fixed income plus (固收+) products, highlighting that despite being a mix of equity and debt, the predominant debt component can lead to declines when the bond market experiences significant downturns [3][5] - A table is provided showing the performance of various asset allocation strategies over different time frames, indicating that higher equity exposure generally leads to better returns, especially over the long term [5] Group 2 - The performance data reveals that a 100% equity allocation yielded a 31.80% return over the past year, while a 100% bond allocation only achieved a 3.81% return in the same period [5] - The article suggests that understanding the impact of bond market fluctuations is crucial for investors in fixed income plus products, as these fluctuations can offset equity gains [3][5]

Core Viewpoint - Jiangsu Bank has demonstrated strong asset growth and improved asset quality in the first half of the year, but its revenue growth remains modest, indicating a "wide planting, thin harvest" situation [2][5][6]. Asset Growth - As of June 30, Jiangsu Bank's total assets reached 4.79 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 21.16%, with a growth rate exceeding 26% [3]. - The bank's non-loan assets have significantly contributed to its asset expansion, with increases in derivative and financial investments, cash, and interbank assets of 23.1%, 37.8%, and 41.95% respectively [3]. - The bank's corporate loans grew by 23.30% year-on-year, with infrastructure loans up by 31% and manufacturing loans by 18.90% [4]. Revenue and Profitability - Jiangsu Bank reported operating income of 448.64 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth of 7.78%, and a net profit of 202.38 billion yuan, up 8.05% [6]. - Interest income increased significantly, with net interest income rising by 19.10% to 329.39 billion yuan, but the growth in loan interest income was only 0.55% [6][7]. - The bank's net interest margin decreased to 1.78%, down 12 basis points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in asset yield [6][7]. Asset Quality - The non-performing loan (NPL) ratio fell to 0.84%, the lowest since the bank's listing, with a decrease in the proportion of special mention loans to 1.24% [8]. - The bank's NPL generation and write-off rates have decreased, with NPL net increase and write-off amounts at 116 billion yuan and 99 billion yuan respectively [8][9]. - The bank's provision coverage ratio stands at 331.02%, indicating strong risk mitigation capacity [8]. Capital Adequacy - Jiangsu Bank's capital adequacy ratios have declined, with total capital adequacy at 12.36%, down from 12.99% at the end of the previous year [9]. - To address capital pressure, the bank issued two perpetual bonds totaling 300 billion yuan in the first half of the year [10].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report In a volatile bond market, it is more appropriate to adopt a defensive strategy, and participation in ultra - long - duration assets needs to wait for a recovery market [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Super - long Credit Bonds Continue to Cool Down 3.1.1 Stock Market Characteristics This week (August 11 - 15, 2025), the market risk preference switched again, the bond market reversed, and super - long credit bonds were affected. Compared with last week, the yields of existing super - long credit bonds declined, and the number of super - long credit bonds with yields between 2.2% - 2.3% increased significantly [3][14]. 3.1.2 Primary Issuance Situation This week, the issuance scale of new super - long credit bonds totaled 15.97 billion yuan, with the supply basically flat compared to last week. The average issuance rate of new super - long urban investment bonds rose to 2.6%, while the coupon rate of new super - long industrial bonds hovered around 2.3%. In the current bond market environment with high volatility, the primary pricing of new super - long credit bonds deviates slightly from the cash bond market, which may be the reason for the continuous increase in the subscription enthusiasm for new bonds of this variety in the past two weeks [4][23]. 3.1.3 Secondary Trading Performance - **Index Performance**: There was another sharp decline in the bond market this week. The index of government bonds with a maturity of over 10 years dropped by 1.64%, and the index of AA + credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years, although with a smaller decline than long - term interest - rate bonds, still had an absolute decline of over 0.5% [5][30]. - **Trading Sentiment**: The trading sentiment of super - long credit bonds was sluggish. The decline of super - long credit bonds was difficult to control, and the liquidity of this variety significantly weakened. The number of trading transactions of industrial bonds with a maturity of over 10 years dropped to less than 40 this week. The trading volume of the most active 7 - 10 - year industrial bonds also decreased by nearly half compared to mid - July. In terms of trading yields, the callback amplitude of the yields of 7 - 10 - year long - term credit bonds was greater than 6bp, while the increase in the yields of general credit bonds with a maturity of over 10 years was relatively low [5][32]. - **Valuation and Buying Sentiment**: This week, the high - valuation trading amplitude of super - long credit bonds widened significantly, approaching the level during the adjustment period in late July. In terms of buying sentiment, the proportion of TKN transactions of 7 - 10 - year credit bonds continued to decline to 67% [5][36]. - **Investor Structure**: Due to the impact on the liability side, funds reduced their holdings of credit bonds with a maturity of over 7 years by 2.19 billion yuan this week. Insurance companies continued to buy long - term bonds and increased their holdings of super - long credit bonds by over 4 billion yuan this week [5][41]. - **Credit Spread**: From a more microscopic perspective, the trends of the credit spreads between active super - long credit bonds of various maturities and government bonds of similar maturities showed slight differentiation this week. The credit spreads of active super - long credit bonds with a maturity of 15 years or less continued to widen, while the credit spreads of long - term credit bonds with a maturity of over 15 years significantly narrowed [6].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The central bank emphasizes "improving capital use efficiency and preventing capital idling" and changes the description of credit supply from "increasing supply intensity" to "stabilizing support intensity", indicating a decline in the central bank's demand for the total amount of credit expansion and an increasing importance of structural monetary policy tools supporting specific areas [2] - The bond market shows a situation of balanced and loose funding, slightly tightened issuance volume, rising bond yields, and a bear - steep yield curve [3][4][5] - Next week, attention should be paid to the pressure on capital liquidity due to the large - scale issuance of local bonds and the stock - bond seesaw effect under the continuously strong equity market [6] Group 3: Summaries Based on Related Catalogs Policy Dynamics - On August 15, the central bank released the "China Monetary Policy Implementation Report for the Second Quarter of 2025". The policy tone continues to emphasize the implementation of a moderately loose monetary policy and promoting a reasonable recovery of prices. New提法 focuses on improving capital use efficiency and changing the credit supply description [2] Market Conditions Primary Supply - From August 11 to August 15, the cumulative issuance of interest - rate bonds was 555.7 billion yuan, a decrease of 252.8 billion yuan compared to the previous period. The issuance scales of national bonds, local bonds, and financial bonds decreased by 158.3 billion yuan, 74 billion yuan, and 20.5 billion yuan respectively [3] Funding - The funding was balanced and loose. DR007 rose 5.47BP to 1.48% compared to August 8. The central bank had a net investment of 8.51 billion yuan this week [3] Secondary Market - This week, bond yields rose and the bond market declined. As of August 15, the yields of 1Y, 10Y, and 30Y national bonds rose 1.59BP, 5.74BP, and 8.75BP respectively. The yield of the 10 - year national bond active bond 250011 increased by 2.65bp in total from August 11 to August 15 [4] Term Spread - The yield curve showed a bear - steep trend. The 10Y - 1Y and 30Y - 10Y term spreads increased by 4.15BP and 3.01BP respectively [5] Bond Market Strategy - Next week, pay attention to the pressure on capital liquidity caused by the large - scale issuance of local bonds and the stock - bond seesaw effect under the continuously strong equity market [6]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The sharp adjustment of the bond market this week is still a short - term emotional shock, and the pricing logic of assets has not changed much. The upward momentum of the 10 - year Treasury bond rate breaking through 1.75% will weaken marginally, but the downward space for interest rates is also limited. In the face of fluctuations, investors should choose trading strategies carefully according to their liability - side stability and safety cushion [2][17][32]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 This Week's Bond Market Review: Risk Assets Continuously Suppress, Curve Bear - Steepens - The Shanghai Composite Index strongly broke through the key points of 3674 and 3700, boosting market risk appetite and leading to a significant adjustment in the bond market. Economic data in July, single - month negative credit growth, and the central bank's outright reverse repurchase operations failed to drive the bullish power of the bond market. By Friday, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds reached 1.7490% and 1.9980% respectively, approaching key levels [1][8]. - From Monday to Friday, influenced by factors such as the performance of risk assets, policy expectations, and economic data, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds fluctuated. Compared with August 8th, by August 15th, the yields of 1Y, 5Y, 10Y, and 30Y Treasury bonds increased by 1.6BP, 4.9BP, 5.7BP, and 8.7BP respectively [8][9][10]. 3.2 Before the Key Resistance Level, the "Catalysts" and "Risk Points" of the Bond Market Catalysts - The limited bullish power in the bond market after the release of social financing and economic data this week may be due to the significant decline in bill rates at the end of June, which has already been expected by the market, rather than the unimportance of fundamental factors [2][17]. - The central bank closely monitors and precisely regulates the money market. Although there was a continuous net withdrawal from Monday to Thursday, the money market rate remained stable. On Friday, a 5000 - billion - yuan outright reverse repurchase was implemented in time, and the central bank's open - market operations turned to net injection [17]. - The allocation demand is gradually increasing. Since August is the "sales rush" period before the reduction of insurance's预定 interest rate, the subsequent insurance purchase strength is expected to further increase [17]. Risk Points - There is a risk of negative feedback from bond - fund redemptions. As of August 17th, the scale of stock - funds and bond - funds in August increased by 145.7 billion yuan and 50.3 billion yuan respectively compared with the previous month, and it is the second consecutive month that the growth rate of stock - fund scale is greater than that of bond - funds [3][19]. - The central bank's monetary policy focuses on multiple goals and may tolerate fluctuations in the money market and the bond market caused by the temporary amplification of supply - demand frictions at individual times [4][28]. - Compared with the stock - bond seesaw effect after the "924" package of policies last year, the upward range of interest rates in this round is not large. Since the "anti - involution" market in early July, the yields of 10Y and 30Y Treasury active bonds have increased by 11BP and 15BP respectively [4][28]. 3.3 Strategy Thinking: Ultra - Long Bonds Will See Intensive Issuance, Focus on the Switch of Individual Bond Relative Values - In the unstable bond - market situation, investors are advised to focus on bonds with both liquidity and relative value and conduct refined bond selection. They can seize the trading opportunities brought by the intensive issuance of ultra - long bonds from August to September [5][33]. - Usually, in the early stage of the issuance and subsequent re - issuance of new bonds, the spread between new and old bonds will widen. Next Friday, the 30 - year "25 Ultra - Long Special Treasury Bond 06" will be issued for the first time [5][33]. - Based on the issuance of 11 30 - year Treasury bonds since 2021, the spread between new and old bonds will reach its peak 2 - 9 trading days after the listing of the first - issued bond (except for 250002), with the spread widening by 2.1 - 9.5BP compared with the issuance start date and 1.6 - 15.8BP compared with the listing date (except for 2500005 which is narrowing). For the first issuance and the first two re - issuances, the spreads of active bonds, sub - active bonds, and new bonds compared with the 10 - year Treasury bond rate usually compress within the listing day and the following three trading days [5][34]. - For trading desks that can short, they can short old bonds before issuance, buy new bonds in the primary market, and then sell new bonds and buy back old bonds after the spread between new and old bonds widens. For allocation desks that cannot short, they can sell old bonds in their current holdings before issuance, buy new bonds in the primary market, and decide whether to sell and buy back old bonds after the new bonds are listed. In addition, lending bonds can further increase returns [38].

Core Viewpoint - The recent volatility in the bond market has negatively impacted the returns of wealth management products, leading to investor concerns about declining yields and the potential for central bank interest rate hikes [2][3][4]. Group 1: Bond Market Impact - Since last year, the bond market has been betting on interest rate cuts from the central bank, resulting in a "bond bull" market characterized by crowded trading [2]. - In late July, new regulatory trends raised inflation expectations, causing fears that the central bank might slow down rate cuts or even consider rate hikes, leading to a continuous decline in the bond market [2][4]. - As of the end of July 2025, the average annualized yield of bank wealth management products has dropped to 2.63%, a decrease of 1.53 basis points from the previous month [3]. Group 2: Wealth Management Product Performance - Fixed income products (excluding cash management) have an average annualized yield of 2.74%, down 3.08 basis points from the previous month, while cash management products yield 1.5%, down 3.68 basis points [3]. - The majority of bank wealth management products are heavily invested in bonds, which has led to a decline in returns as bond prices fell due to investors selling bonds to invest in the stock market [3][4]. Group 3: Strategies for Wealth Management Companies - Wealth management companies are seeking to break out of the traditional reliance on fixed interest income due to the pressure from the low interest rate environment [2][5]. - 中银理财 (Bank of China Wealth Management) aims to maintain stable returns for investors by diversifying into multi-asset and multi-strategy investment models, while also enhancing their research on various asset classes [6][7]. - The company has created a series of pension-themed products to address the needs of an aging population, with a total pension financial scale exceeding 500 billion yuan [7]. Group 4: Cross-Border Investment Opportunities - 中银理财 is focusing on expanding its cross-border investment capabilities to meet the financing needs of the "Belt and Road" initiative and to enhance its global asset allocation capabilities [8].