华夏时报记者石飞月北京报道 科创板上市两年后，华虹半导体终于来兑现承诺了。近日，该公司公告称，正筹划以发行股份及支付现金的方式购买上海华力微电子有限公司(下称"华力 微")的控股权，收购标的资产为华力微一部分成熟制程业务的股权。华力微为华虹半导体及其间接控股股东华虹集团共同投资的公司，华虹集团此前曾承 诺将华力微注入华虹半导体。 此次资产并购是当前国产半导体行业并购浪潮的组成部分，华虹半导体也将进一步强化其聚焦成熟制程与特色工艺的战略定位，巩固其在汽车、工业、消 费电子等市场的技术优势。不过，在业内人士看来，半导体行业技术迭代加速，先进制程正逐步成为市场主流，若不能前瞻性地加大研发投入、提前布局 先进技术，华虹半导体可能面临技术代际差距扩大的风险。 资产整合 对于控股华力微，华虹半导体公告给出的理由是，"解决IPO承诺的同业竞争事项"。 其实这也是华虹集团在华虹半导体申请科创板上市时做出的一项承诺。2023年，华虹半导体科创板招股书显示，华虹集团发布了《关于避免同业竞争的补 充承诺函》，承诺在华虹半导体于科创板上市之日起三年内，在履行政府主管部门审批程序后，将华力微注入华虹半导体。 本次收购标的资产为华力微所 ...

8月21日，据追风交易台消息，摩根大通科技和电信（Technology and Telecoms）团队在最新研报中称， 英特尔代工的"虚假竞争"实际上对台积电更有利。 该行分析师认为，英特尔代工业务的存在反而能避免台积电因垄断地位带来的政府监管压力。摩根大通 还称，客户参与英特尔代工"复兴计划"并非纯粹负面，且英特尔代工面临的根本性挑战远超资金问题。 该行称，台积电将继续在先进制程领域保持90%以上的市场份额，维持台积电"增持"评级，目标价1275 新台币。 英特尔代工业务的"复兴"可能对台积电构成的威胁被市场过度夸大。 与此同时，产品业务可能继续面临来自AMD、ARM、英伟达和内部芯片的竞争压力，迫使英特尔继续 将更多产品外包给最具竞争力的代工厂——台积电。 分析师认为，无论有多少客户支持，都不太可能解决产品业务和代工业务之间这种内在的利益冲突。因 此，台积电在可预见的未来将继续在先进制程节点保持90%以上的市场份额。 "有选择"的假象比绝对垄断更有价值 摩根大通分析师称，除了最初的狂热情绪（2020年下半年，当市场预期英特尔将大规模外包制造业务 时，台积电股价曾达到25-30倍的市盈率），有关台积电可能在 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is maintained as "Buy" with a target price of $25.00 [2]. Core Views - Recent strategic initiatives have positioned the company at a critical juncture, with a $2 billion investment from SoftBank and a potential 10% equity stake from the U.S. government providing dual support for its transformation [6][7]. - The company's "national team" strategy is becoming increasingly prominent, serving as a core pillar of U.S. industrial policy, while the SoftBank investment reflects recognition of its strategic value [6][7]. - The success of the company's transformation hinges on its ability to advance its cutting-edge manufacturing processes, with the current phase characterized by a mix of opportunities and risks [6][9]. Financial Projections and Valuation - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: $53.1 billion in 2024, $51.8 billion in 2025, $52.9 billion in 2026, and $55.2 billion in 2027, with respective growth rates of -2.08%, -2.52%, 2.29%, and 4.29% [5][21]. - Adjusted net profit is projected to be -$17.0 billion in 2024, with a recovery to $241.66 million in 2025, $1.44 billion in 2026, and $2.99 billion in 2027 [5][21]. - The target price of $25 corresponds to a 2.0x price-to-sales (PS) ratio for 2026, reflecting a valuation discount compared to industry leaders due to execution uncertainties in advanced manufacturing processes [10][21]. Strategic Support and Challenges - The dual backing from government and SoftBank not only solidifies the company's status as a "national team" but also opens new opportunities in the Arm ecosystem for its foundry business [7][8]. - Political support has been crucial, with recent shifts in government stance indicating a strategic consensus that may reduce future political obstacles for the company [8]. - The execution of advanced manufacturing nodes, particularly the 18A and 14A processes, remains critical for the company's future success, with the need for foundational customers to support these technologies [9][10].

Group 1 - The index has reached a new high as expected, with technology and non-bank sectors being the core drivers. The index broke through to a new high since 924, with communication, electronics, and non-bank sectors rising by 7.7%, 7.0%, and 6.5% respectively, indicating continued optimism for these sectors [1][12][14] - The market trend is healthy, and there is a strong upward confidence from domestic capital, making a firm hold on investments a suitable strategy [2][13] - The technology sector is viewed as a certain mainline, with a particular focus on the domestic AI industry chain, which is expected to strengthen its relative advantages [3][14] Group 2 - Within the AI-related sectors, there is a strong outlook for computing power-related areas, including liquid cooling, electronic cloth, and solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC). The domestic companies are expected to see breakthroughs and opportunities for domestic substitution [4][15] - The domestic AI chip core companies have seen a 33% increase, indicating that the market's allocation towards domestic computing power is just beginning [4][15] - Robotics is highlighted as an important application area for AI, with a focus on new components and application scenarios [4][15][16] Group 3 - The integration of AI and unmanned technologies is anticipated to be a major method of warfare in the future, with increasing market attention [5][16] - AI applications are becoming widespread across various life sectors, with the release of new domestic models expected to act as a catalyst for growth in the AI application sector [5][16]

Investment Rating - The report rates the electronic industry as "stronger than the market" [1]. Core Insights - The semiconductor industry is experiencing an explosive growth phase driven by AI, marking a significant shift from previous cycles driven by consumer electronics [4]. - The demand for advanced processes is expected to surpass that of mature processes, indicating a reversal of the traditional pyramid structure in semiconductor manufacturing [4]. - The report identifies three main trends in semiconductor process development: density enhancement, 2.5D and 3D packaging technologies, and system-level optimization [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The semiconductor industry is undergoing a transformation characterized by asymmetric growth, where AI-related sectors are seeing explosive demand while traditional sectors are in a digestion phase [4]. - Concerns about the sustainability of AI-driven demand have diminished as major international clients begin to implement AI solutions [4]. Market Trends - Advanced processes are becoming more critical, with the market share of advanced processes expected to exceed that of mature processes [4]. - The report highlights the importance of energy efficiency in advanced processes, with examples showing significant power savings from newer technologies [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that the current AI-driven semiconductor boom is comparable to an industrial revolution, with a growing gap between market demand and supply chain capacity [4]. - Long-term investment opportunities are identified in advanced equipment, materials, manufacturing, and packaging within the semiconductor sector [4].

Core Viewpoint - TSMC plans to gradually exit 6-inch wafer manufacturing by 2027, reallocating resources to advanced packaging, which reflects a strategic shift towards higher-margin businesses [2][3]. Group 1: TSMC's Strategic Shift - TSMC has verbally informed downstream clients about the closure of its last 6-inch plant by the end of 2027, transitioning production lines to advanced packaging [2]. - The decision to exit the 6-inch wafer business is based on market demand and TSMC's long-term business strategy, ensuring a smooth transition for clients [2][3]. - TSMC's stock price remained stable, unaffected by external news regarding the closure [2]. Group 2: Market Impact - The closure of TSMC's 6-inch plant is expected to trigger a shift in orders for power management ICs (PMICs) and other mature process ICs, potentially benefiting companies like World Advanced [2]. - The trend of major manufacturers moving away from 6-inch wafers is evident, as TSMC's decision follows its previous exit from the GaN market [3]. Group 3: Industry Trends - Siltronic AG plans to cease production of small-diameter wafers by July 2025, reflecting a broader industry trend towards larger, more efficient wafers [5][6]. - SUMCO has announced a restructuring plan to end production of 200mm and smaller wafers by 2026, indicating a shift in focus to larger wafer production [6][10]. - The semiconductor industry is witnessing a decline in demand for smaller diameter wafers, with a significant shift towards 300mm wafers for improved production efficiency [9][10].

Core Viewpoint - On July 30, the A-share market experienced fluctuations with the three major indices showing mixed results, while stock ETFs saw a net inflow of 7.5 billion yuan, indicating investor interest in certain sectors despite market volatility [2][5]. Summary by Sections ETF Fund Flows - On July 30, stock ETFs had a net inflow of 7.5 billion yuan, with significant inflows into the ChiNext index and Hong Kong-related ETFs, covering sectors such as technology, finance, pharmaceuticals, and the internet [2][5]. - The total number of stock ETFs in the market reached 1,159, with a total scale of 3.83 trillion yuan as of July 30 [4]. Top Performing ETFs - Among the ETFs, 38 saw net inflows exceeding 100 million yuan, with the top three being: - E Fund ChiNext ETF: 1.542 billion yuan - E Fund Hong Kong Securities ETF: 976 million yuan - Fuguo Hong Kong Internet ETF: 811 million yuan [5][6]. - The leading sectors for net inflows included: - Hong Kong Technology: 2.72 billion yuan - ChiNext Index: 1.98 billion yuan - Hong Kong Finance: 1.71 billion yuan - Hong Kong Pharmaceuticals: 1.21 billion yuan - Hong Kong Internet: 990 million yuan [5][6]. Underperforming ETFs - Conversely, 20 stock ETFs experienced net outflows, with notable losses in broad-based and industry ETFs, including: - Four ETFs tracking the CSI 300 Index, with a total outflow exceeding 2.1 billion yuan - Four pharmaceutical-related ETFs, with total outflows over 1 billion yuan - Four CSI A500 ETFs, with outflows nearing 700 million yuan [9]. Market Outlook - Analysts from YinHua Fund and JiaShi Fund expressed optimism regarding the A-share market's resilience due to stable economic fundamentals and supportive policies, anticipating a positive impact on market sentiment [9]. - The Hong Kong market is expected to benefit from valuation recovery and liquidity improvements post-September 2024, with strong performance anticipated in technology and innovative pharmaceutical sectors [9].

Summary of Fuzhijian Technology Conference Call Company Overview - Fuzhijian Technology is a leading global player in the nonlinear crystal market, holding over 70% market share with core products including BBO and LBO crystals invented by the Institute of Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences [2][5][12] - The company’s product line includes nonlinear optical crystals, precision optical components, and laser devices, with applications in laser systems, semiconductor equipment, LiDAR, and communication systems [2][8] Financial Performance - The company has maintained a revenue growth rate of 10%-20% over the past few years, with an overall gross margin around 50% and an operating profit margin between 20%-30% [2][13] - Fuzhijian Technology expects to achieve over 200 million RMB in profit by 2025, with continued steady growth projected for 2026 [3][21] - The subsidiary Zhixi Photon is expected to see rapid revenue growth, projecting revenues of 150 million RMB by 2025, more than doubling from previous figures [20] Market Dynamics - The laser market is closely tied to the overall economic and industrial recovery, with Fuzhijian Technology benefiting from both domestic and international markets [2][14] - The advanced semiconductor market remains a core focus, with significant attention on advanced processes and related equipment such as photolithography machines [4] Competitive Advantages - Fuzhijian Technology's unique advantages in the optical field include its strong position in nonlinear crystals and its focus on high-precision optical components, which are critical for domestic high-end semiconductor equipment [5][14] - The company produces key laser materials such as LBO, BBO, and KTP, which are essential for high-end semiconductor applications due to their unique wavelength characteristics [15][16] Product Applications - The company’s products are categorized into three main types: nonlinear optical crystals, precision optical components, and laser devices, with extensive applications across various fields [8] - Nonlinear and laser crystals are used for frequency conversion and power amplification, while precision optical components are crucial in various applications including eyewear, laser systems, and communication systems [9][10] Technical Challenges - Crystal growth involves significant technical challenges, requiring high precision to ensure the final product is transparent and defect-free [17] Future Outlook - Fuzhijian Technology is well-positioned to capitalize on the increasing demand for high-end precision optical components driven by the semiconductor equipment market [21]

Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for the company [6][5]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading domestic wafer foundry in China, with a focus on both advanced process technology and mature process expansion [5]. - The company has achieved a significant revenue milestone, with quarterly revenues exceeding $2 billion for three consecutive quarters, indicating a positive trend in fundamentals [5][12]. - The company is expected to benefit from the localization of manufacturing and the increasing demand for advanced chips due to geopolitical factors [5]. Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for the company from 2025 to 2027 are estimated at $9.451 billion, $10.860 billion, and $11.998 billion, respectively, with growth rates of 18%, 15%, and 10% [25][32]. - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same period are $743 million, $948 million, and $1.069 billion, reflecting growth rates of 51%, 28%, and 13% [25][32]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve slightly, reaching 19.5%, 20%, and 20.5% from 2025 to 2027 [25]. Market Position and Competitive Landscape - The company is a core beneficiary of high-end chip orders as domestic IC design firms increasingly collaborate with local foundries [5]. - The advanced process capacity in mainland China is currently low, with only 1.7% of capacity at 14nm and below, indicating a strategic opportunity for the company [5][18]. - The company is expected to maintain a competitive edge due to its ability to produce advanced nodes, which are critical for AI infrastructure [5][18]. Valuation and Target Price - The report assigns a target price of HKD 63.3 per share based on a 3x price-to-book (PB) valuation for 2025, reflecting the company's leading position in advanced process foundry services in mainland China [6][27].

Summary of Conference Call Notes Industry Overview - The discussion focuses on the advanced semiconductor manufacturing industry, particularly in relation to autonomous driving and robotics, and their impact on wafer fabrication capacity [1][2][5]. Key Points and Arguments 1. **Demand for Advanced Process Capacity** - The combined demand for autonomous driving and robotics is estimated at 1.65 million wafers per month, equivalent to the capacity of approximately 3.25 TSMC facilities. Domestic wafer fabs would need to increase their capacity by 37 times to meet this demand [1][5]. 2. **Comparison of Chip Types** - The die size of autonomous driving and robotics chips is similar to that of GPUs, leading to comparable capacity consumption. However, the market size for autonomous driving and robotics is significantly larger, indicating a greater demand for advanced process capacity [2][3][4]. 3. **NVIDIA's Cost Structure** - In NVIDIA's data center business, the value allocated to wafer foundry services is very low, accounting for only 2.25% of sales. The breakdown shows that HBM contributes 7.25% and packaging costs account for 5.5% [6][10]. 4. **Future Capacity Needs** - The future demand for advanced process capacity from autonomous driving and robotics is expected to surpass that of AI GPUs. As penetration rates increase, the demand for chips in these sectors could grow significantly, potentially exceeding tenfold [3][17][20]. 5. **Challenges for Domestic Foundries** - Domestic advanced foundries face challenges in producing high-end chips due to a lack of EUV lithography machines, leading to lower yields compared to TSMC. For instance, TSMC achieves a 50% yield with single exposure, while domestic foundries using multiple exposures see significantly reduced yields [15][16]. 6. **Market Dynamics** - The structure of customers for advanced process foundries is expected to change as the demand from autonomous driving and robotics increases. This shift will require more resources to be allocated to these emerging fields [7][22]. 7. **Investment Considerations** - Investors should focus on the expansion plans of advanced process foundries, as the demand for wafer consumption is expected to rise significantly. Companies like TSMC and SMIC, which have linear growth expansion plans, should be prioritized [23]. Additional Important Insights - The potential for robots to consume wafer capacity is substantial, with predictions suggesting a global demand for 1.51 million wafers for robotics by 2040, far exceeding the demand for autonomous driving chips [20]. - The trend of "one car, multiple chips" is becoming common in new vehicle designs, indicating a growing need for more advanced chips in automotive applications [18]. - The current consumption of wafer capacity is dominated by smartphones, computers, and tablets, but this is expected to shift as autonomous driving and robotics gain traction [21][22].