2)企业盈利承压，看好开工率温和回升：组件、电池、硅片环节普遍亏损，行业仍处去库与资金紧平衡 阶段，现金流质量与负债结构成为比利润更关键的因素；开工率方面，当前排产仍处底部区间，但在硅 料端产能出清、自律减产带动下，行业有望在淡季过后迎来排产的温和回升。 3)头部企业建立共同体，推动联合收储：各硅料龙头企业合资成立的收储平台——北京光和谦成科技有 限责任公司已完成注册，这标志着旨在解决行业产能过剩、价格倒挂困境的硅料收储自救行动迈出关键 一步。 产业链：产能出清加速，价格空间修复；龙头优势显著，逆变器α强化；晶硅有所放缓，钙钛矿GW线 落地 硅料：截至25年底硅料行业总产能约300万吨+(对应1500GW)，当前开工率已降至37%，硅料价格也回 升至50元附近，硅料公司毛利率有回升趋势，26年有望在出清中修复盈利；硅片：硅片行业自25年起进 入产能平台期，行业开工率约为50%+，新增投放停滞，供需仍以控产去库维持平衡；组件：组件价格 自23年高位起累计跌幅超过六成，但头部企业毛利率降幅已明显收窄，26年有望修复。 智通财经APP获悉，东吴证券发布研报称，2025年国内受136号文影响1-10月装机252.87 ...

证券研究报告·证券年度投资策略报告·电力设备与新能源行业 供给侧拐点已至，供需逐步修复 ——2026年光伏策略报告 证券分析师 ：曾朵红 执业证书编号：S0600516080001 联系邮箱：zengdh@dwzq.com.cn 联系电话：021-60199798 2025年12月14日 | PART1需求：国内需求高位回落，海外持续增长 | | --- | | PART2.产业链：反内卷陆续起效，价格逐步回升 | | 一、主链：产能出清加速，价格空间修复 | | 二、辅材：龙头优势显著，逆变器α强化 | | PART3.新技术：晶硅有所放缓，钙钛矿GW线落地 | | PART4.投资建议与风险提示 | 3 目录 摘要 注：若无说明，正文中"预计"均来自东吴电新组 2 ◆ 需求：全球装机持续增长，中国装机高位回落。2025年国内受136号文影响1-10月装机252.87GW，同比+39%，整 体装机处于高位，预计全年装机290GW，26年装机215GW，同降26%。海外市场，预计25年美国/欧洲新增装机 50/70GW，同比持平，后续保持15-21%稳定增长态势。新兴市场贡献较多增量，尤其是中东及印度国家项目 ...

Core Insights - The report from Guosen Securities indicates that the domestic wind power installation is expected to maintain a growth rate of 10%-20% in 2026, supported by saturated orders and stable prices [1][2] - The profitability of wind turbine manufacturers is improving quarterly, with export growth boosting performance, reflecting a synchronized recovery in both domestic and international markets [2] - The report emphasizes the importance of overseas expansion and AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) as key focus areas for 2026, with major domestic power equipment companies making breakthroughs in overseas markets and innovative products [1] Wind Power Sector - The wind turbine sector is experiencing a recovery in profitability, with significant growth in offshore wind installations and tenders, leading to increased orders and performance for related companies [2] - Key companies to watch in the wind power sector include Goldwind Technology, Sany Renewable Energy, Times New Materials, Daikin Heavy Industries, Oriental Cable, and Haile Wind Power [2] Lithium Battery Industry - The lithium battery supply chain is expected to see a reversal in the downward price trend, with significant recovery in profitability anticipated for most products in 2026 [2] - New technologies such as steel-shell batteries, silicon anodes, and large energy storage cells are expected to achieve mass supply in 2026, while solid-state battery technology is accelerating towards industrialization [2] - Recommended companies in the lithium battery sector include CATL, EVE Energy, Zhongchuang Innovation, Zhuhai Guanyu, Tianci Materials, Enjie, Dingsheng Technology, and Xiamen Tungsten [2] Energy Storage Market - The electrification transition is driving explosive growth in the global energy storage market, with domestic market demand leading to a surge in storage orders [3] - The demand for large-scale energy storage in the U.S. is increasing due to power supply shortages, while unstable grid conditions in Europe are also boosting storage needs [3] - Companies to focus on in the energy storage sector include CATL, EVE Energy, Sungrow Power, and Deye [3] Photovoltaic Sector - The photovoltaic supply side is undergoing adjustments, with new technologies such as silver-free materials and perovskite layers gaining attention [3] - The profitability of silicon materials is expected to recover, with silver-free products nearing mass production by 2026 [3] - Key companies in the photovoltaic sector include GCL-Poly Energy, Xinte Energy, Tongwei Co., and Juhua Materials [3] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on new technology investment opportunities, such as solid-state batteries and flexible converters [3] - Emphasis is placed on overseas expansion and performance improvement for leading companies in lithium batteries and wind turbine components [3] - Long-term beneficiaries in green electricity alternatives include secondary distribution equipment and charging pile operations [3]

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [5] Core Insights - The humanoid robot industry is expected to accelerate production and commercialization due to breakthroughs in AI technology and strong domestic demand for core components [1][14] - The electric vehicle charging infrastructure is projected to grow significantly, with a target of 28 million charging facilities by the end of 2027, which will support over 80 million electric vehicles [18][19] - The photovoltaic sector is experiencing a price recovery, with leading integrated component companies likely to benefit from improved profitability [30][31] Humanoid Robots - The launch of the ZhiYuan Robot's G2 model marks a significant step in the commercialization of humanoid robots, with strong domestic demand for core components driving market growth [1][14] - The industry is seeing increased participation from major tech companies, which is expected to enhance the overall market dynamics and opportunities for component suppliers [15][17] New Energy Vehicles - The "Three-Year Doubling Action Plan" aims to significantly enhance the electric vehicle charging infrastructure, with an expected annual increase of over 5 million new charging facilities [18][19] - The public DC charging pile market is anticipated to double within three years, driven by both new installations and the renovation of existing facilities [18][19] New Energy - The photovoltaic component prices are on the rise, indicating a potential upward cycle in the industry, with leading companies expected to benefit from improved pricing and profitability [30][31] - The market is witnessing a significant increase in demand for high-efficiency products, particularly in the context of BC battery technology [30][31] Power Equipment & AIDC - The demand for ultra-high voltage equipment is expected to remain strong due to ongoing renewable energy projects, providing robust support for core suppliers in this segment [8] - The release of NVIDIA's 800VDC power supply architecture white paper highlights advancements in power electronics, which are likely to benefit companies actively engaged in AIDC technologies [9]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a slight year-on-year increase in performance for the first half of 2025, driven by improved profit margins from welding strips due to enhanced product quality requirements, while credit impairment has temporarily affected profit release [1][2][3] Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved revenue of 1.518 billion yuan, a decrease of 9.77% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders was 36 million yuan, an increase of 0.18% year-on-year; and net profit excluding non-recurring items was 33 million yuan, an increase of 16.63% year-on-year [2] - In Q2 2024, the company reported a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2 million yuan, a significant decrease of 92.94% quarter-on-quarter [3] Profit Margin and Quality Improvement - The company's gross profit margin reached a low of 4.08% in Q3 2024, but has shown an upward trend since then, primarily due to stricter quality standards for welding strips imposed by component manufacturers [3] - The overall qualification rate for photovoltaic welding strips improved from 10% in 2024 to 57% in 2025, which is crucial for maintaining the performance of photovoltaic components [3] Credit Impairment Impact - In Q1 2025, the company reversed credit impairment of 9 million yuan, while in Q2 2025, it recorded a credit impairment provision of 18 million yuan, which significantly impacted quarterly profits [3] Product Line and Technology - The company has a diverse product line that includes welding strips suitable for various technologies such as HJT and XBC, and it is expected that the introduction of new photovoltaic technologies will enhance the sales volume of new welding strips, driving both volume and price increases [3] Valuation - Based on the company's half-year performance and trends in photovoltaic component quality and technology development, the forecasted earnings per share for 2025-2027 have been adjusted to 0.59, 1.20, and 1.95 yuan, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of 62.8, 30.8, and 18.9 times; the rating remains at "buy" [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Accumulate" rating for the company [1][5] Core Views - The company's performance in the first half of 2025 showed a slight year-on-year increase, with a focus on improving product quality and a diverse product line that aligns with new technologies [3][8] - The report highlights a stabilization in gross profit margins and the impact of credit impairment on profit release [3][8] - The forecast for earnings per share (EPS) has been adjusted to 0.59, 1.20, and 1.95 RMB for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting a significant decrease from previous estimates [5][7] Summary by Sections Company Performance - In the first half of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of 1.518 billion RMB, a decrease of 9.77% year-on-year, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 36 million RMB, showing a slight increase of 0.18% [8][9] - The gross profit margin has shown an upward trend since Q3 2024, with a notable improvement in the quality standards for photovoltaic welding strips [8][9] Financial Projections - The company’s revenue is projected to grow from 2.762 billion RMB in 2023 to 5.547 billion RMB in 2027, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 15.9% [7][10] - The net profit is expected to increase from 151 million RMB in 2023 to 214 million RMB in 2027, with significant growth rates in the coming years [7][10] Valuation Metrics - The adjusted price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 62.8, 30.8, and 18.9 respectively, indicating a high valuation in the near term [5][7] - The report also notes a decrease in the expected EPS from previous estimates, reflecting adjustments based on market conditions and company performance [5][7]

Summary of Key Points from the Conference Call Industry Overview - The photovoltaic (PV) industry is experiencing intensified competition due to overcapacity, with global new installations expected to reach approximately 545GW in 2024, while the capacities for silicon materials, wafers, cells, and modules exceed 1,000GW, leading to significant price declines and pressure on profitability [1][3] - Policy measures are being implemented to optimize supply structure and shift the industry focus from price competition to product quality and efficiency, with signs of price recovery in the supply chain [1][3] Core Technology Insights - BC (Back Contact) battery technology has surpassed Topcon technology by approximately 1.6% in both laboratory and mass production efficiency, with a trend of widening efficiency gaps, positioning BC as a potential mainstream product [1][5] - The design of BC batteries eliminates front grid lines, enhancing aesthetic appeal and efficiency, particularly suitable for building-integrated photovoltaics (BIPV) [1][7] - BC technology is highly compatible with other technologies like Topcon and heterojunction, allowing for the development of higher efficiency battery technologies such as HBC [1][7] Market Dynamics - The BC battery production is accelerating, with an expected capacity expansion of 50-60GW by 2025, led by major companies like Longi and Aiko, which have achieved module conversion efficiencies of 24.6%-24.8% [1][8][9] - Downstream customer acceptance of BC modules is high, with competitive pricing compared to Topcon, particularly in distributed scenarios like industrial rooftops and residential markets [10] Challenges and Risks - Cost remains a significant challenge for BC technology, as it is more expensive than Topcon in terms of equipment investment and raw material usage [11] - The complexity of the manufacturing process poses additional hurdles, requiring advanced equipment and skilled labor, which can slow down production ramp-up for new entrants [11][12] Equipment and Supplier Insights - Key players like Dier Laser and Laplace play crucial roles in the BC segment, with Dier providing laser micro-etching equipment and Laplace supplying coating and thermal processing equipment, both benefiting from the growing demand for BC batteries [2][18] - Dier's laser technology has significantly reduced costs and increased production capacity, while Laplace has a strong track record in technology iteration and is expanding into the semiconductor market [17][19] Additional Notable Companies - Other companies to watch include Jiejia Weichuang and Aotwei, which provide doping and interconnection equipment for BC technology, poised to benefit from the large-scale production of BC batteries [20]

Core Viewpoint - The company reported a decline in revenue and net profit for the first half of 2025, but showed signs of improved shipment and stable profitability in the second quarter, with expectations for recovery in the second half of the year due to advancements in the photovoltaic sector [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company's revenue for H1 2025 was 6.44 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.9%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 180 million yuan, down 39.6% year-on-year [1]. - In Q2 2025, revenue was 3.44 billion yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decline of 9.7% but an increase of 14.9% year-on-year. The net profit for the same period was 90 million yuan, showing a significant quarter-on-quarter drop of 59.2% but a slight year-on-year increase of 1.5% [1]. - The gross margin for H1 2025 was 6.9%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, while the net profit margin was 2.8%, a decrease of 1.6 percentage points year-on-year [1]. Shipment and Production - The company shipped approximately 930 tons in H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of about 20%, with N-type products accounting for 96% of shipments. In Q2 2025, shipments were around 490 tons, also down 20% year-on-year but up 11% quarter-on-quarter, with N-type products making up 97% of the total [1]. - The estimated gross profit per kilogram in Q2 was approximately 518 yuan/kg, an increase of about 88 yuan/kg from the previous quarter, with net profit per ton estimated at 150,000 to 200,000 yuan [1]. Technological Advancements - The company has made significant breakthroughs in new technologies, with BC paste achieving over 50% market share in downstream customers and successful small-scale shipments of copper paste to major clients. A second-generation device is expected to enhance shipments in H2 2025 [2]. - The company has achieved mass production of low-cost silver paste with silver content of 20% or lower, indicating a comprehensive layout of new technologies [2]. Cash Flow and Expenses - Operating expenses for H1 2025 were 240 million yuan, a decrease of 17.9% year-on-year, with an expense ratio of 3.7%, down 0.6 percentage points year-on-year. In Q2 2025, operating expenses were 130 million yuan, reflecting a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 25.2% [2]. - The company reported an operating cash flow of -1.1 billion yuan for H1 2025, a decline of 108.6% year-on-year, with Q2 showing an operating cash flow of -980 million yuan, a significant quarter-on-quarter drop of 229.6% [2]. Profit Forecast and Investment Rating - Due to declining processing fees and intensified industry competition, the company has revised its net profit forecasts for 2025-2027 to 420 million, 590 million, and 790 million yuan respectively, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.6%, 40%, and 35% [3]. - The company maintains a "buy" rating based on its technological leadership and stable market share [3].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" investment rating for the photovoltaic industry [1]. Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the need to break the "involution" style competition in the photovoltaic sector, advocating for supply-side reforms driven by policy, industry self-discipline, and corporate production cuts [2]. - It highlights a significant increase in domestic photovoltaic installations, with 197.85 GW added from January to May 2025, representing a 150% year-on-year growth [2]. - The report identifies new technologies, particularly BC (Bifacial Cell) and copper paste, as key drivers for future industry growth and cost reduction [2]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The solar energy index rose by 4.1%, with notable gains from companies like Daqo New Energy and Tongwei Co., Ltd., which saw increases exceeding 10% [2]. - The report discusses the government's increasing focus on addressing low-price disorderly competition, aiming to enhance product quality and facilitate the exit of outdated production capacity [2]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes a recovery in polysilicon prices, with the average transaction price for N-type polysilicon rising to 34,700 CNY/ton, a 0.87% increase week-on-week [2]. - It asserts that the main challenge in the photovoltaic industry is supply rather than demand, with expectations for improved supply conditions due to government guidance and industry self-regulation [2]. Technological Advancements - The report forecasts that leading companies will significantly expand their BC production capacity, with Longi Green Energy expected to reach 50 GW by the end of 2025 [2]. - It highlights the trend towards reducing silver usage in photovoltaic cells, with the silver consumption per watt decreasing from 6 mg/W to 0.5 mg/W, driven by advancements in technologies like XBC, TOPCon, and HJT [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies with strong advantages in new technologies, recommending stocks such as Longi Green Energy, Aiko Solar Energy, and JinkoSolar [2]. - It also advises attention to auxiliary material sectors that benefit from policy improvements and have higher safety margins, recommending companies like GCL-Poly Energy and Sungrow Power Supply [2].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Positive" investment rating for the industry [5]. Core Insights - The overall scale of the industry remains stable, with a decrease in enthusiasm leading to differentiation among companies [12][19]. - Policy expectations are anticipated to strengthen further, driven by public statements from industry leaders [22][23]. - New technologies, particularly BC technology, are gaining attention, while other routes are progressing steadily [26][28]. - Auxiliary materials and equipment are advancing with BC and TOPCon modifications, contributing to efficiency improvements [46][62]. - Inverters are evolving, with a focus on commercial storage solutions and continued iterations in large-scale storage [67][82]. Summary by Sections Overall - The scale of the industry is stable with over 3,500 participating companies and more than 500,000 attendees, showing no significant change from 2024 [19]. - There is a noticeable decrease in overall enthusiasm, with some exhibition spaces left vacant, indicating a divergence in interest between leading and smaller companies [19]. Policy - Industry leaders are actively promoting policy implementation, with initial solutions proposed to address the "internal competition" in the silicon material sector [23]. - The asset-liability ratio in the photovoltaic main industry chain has shown a significant increase, indicating financial pressures [24]. New Technologies - The HIBC technology from Longi has achieved a standard module power of over 700W, while Aiko's ABC modules have a double-sided rate of 80% ± 5% [28]. - The TOPCon route focuses on efficiency improvements, with leading companies showcasing modules with power ratings up to 670W and conversion efficiencies of 24.8% [33]. - HJT technology is also advancing, with Tongwei's HJT module reaching a power output of 790.8W, marking a significant achievement in the sector [41]. Auxiliary Materials & Equipment - Leading manufacturers are launching BC-specific products, including low-weight encapsulation films and high-reflectivity black materials [46]. - The introduction of low-cost metal solutions is becoming a trend, with companies like Jingsilver and Shanghai Silver Paste showcasing their innovations [52]. - Equipment for TOPCon modifications is gaining traction, with edge passivation becoming a mainstream technology [62]. Inverters - The focus on commercial storage products is evident, with new high-power products being prominently displayed at the SNEC exhibition [67]. - The latest large-scale storage solutions, such as the PowerTitan3.0 from Sungrow, feature significant upgrades in capacity and efficiency [82].