Core Viewpoint - The international gold price has reached a historic high of nearly $4600 per ounce, with a significant annual increase of approximately 70% in 2025, marking the largest annual rise since the 1979 oil crisis [1] Group 1: Gold Price Trends - The current surge in international gold prices began in the second half of 2019, with an 18% increase that year. From 2020 to 2023, gold prices frequently surpassed $2000 per ounce, and in 2024, they exceeded $2800 per ounce with a 27% annual increase. By March 2025, prices crossed $3000 per ounce, and by October, they surpassed $4000 per ounce, culminating in a record high near $4600 per ounce by year-end [1] - Domestic gold prices in China have also risen significantly, with gold jewelry prices increasing from around 800 yuan per gram to approximately 1360 yuan per gram within the year [1] Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The rise in gold prices is attributed to increased global demand for safe-haven assets and a decline in the credibility of the US dollar. The Federal Reserve's shift to a rate-cutting cycle and the weakening dollar have reduced the holding costs of gold [1] - Geopolitical risks and rising global economic uncertainties have intensified market demand for gold as a traditional safe-haven asset, leading to a surge in prices [2] - Central banks worldwide are diversifying their reserves and significantly increasing gold holdings, contributing to the upward pressure on gold prices [2] Group 3: Related Precious Metals - The increase in international gold prices has also led to substantial rises in other precious metals, with silver and platinum prices rising over 140% and palladium over 100% last year. The strong performance of gold has activated sector rotation, boosting the overall valuation of precious metals [2] - Industrial demand for certain precious metals, such as silver, has also supported price increases, driven by rapid developments in industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence [2] Group 4: Market Outlook - The gold market is expected to enter a new phase of dynamic balance and multiple forces at play by 2026, according to industry experts [3] - Investors are advised to maintain a rational approach, recognize market risks, and follow diversification principles in their gold investments, employing strategies like dollar-cost averaging to smooth returns [3]

香港交易及結算所有限公司及香港聯合交易所有限公司對本公告之內容概不 負 責，對 其 準 確 性 或 完 整 性 亦 不 發 表 任 何 聲 明，並 明 確 表 示，概 不 對 因 本 公 告 全部或任何部分內容而產生或因倚賴該等內容而引致之任何損失承擔任何責 任。 誠如本公司日期為2025年8月7日 及2025年8月29日 的 公 告 所 披 露，本 集 團 已 停 止 及中止對FM商 標 之 任 何 使 用，並 停 止 自 稱 為 相 關 產 品 之（獨 家）分 銷 商。此 舉 不 可 避 免 地 影 響 本 集 團 之 業 務 營 運。 – 1 – 誠如本公司日期為2025年11月28日 的 公 告 所 披 露，與 歐 洲 鐘 錶 品 牌 正 持 續 進 行 討 論，惟 由 於 雙 方 未 能 就 相 關 商 業 條 款（包 括 但 不 限 於 相 關 最 低 採 購 金 額）達 成 共 識，故 未 有 重 大 更 新。 鑑 於 全 球 經 濟 不 確 定 性 及 零 售 業 務 危 機，本 集 團 於 日 常 業 務 營 運 中 一 直 審 慎 行 事，並 已 採 取 措 施 控 制 成 本 及 開 支 ...

技术面：周初国际黄金价格持续性暴跌，当日于4549美元附近暴跌于4303美元附近止跌，日内黄金价格 下跌246美元左右。通过市场情绪了解到周初黄金价格会出现回撤修复，但是没有想到会暴跌这么狠。 总的来说周初的交易状况还算理想。周二黄金价格稍有反弹，在触及4383美元附近承压后，后续时段更 多以小幅震荡为主，这可能就是日内黄金涨跌幅度过大引发的后遗症，需要一定的修复时间来缓解。后 面再回撤正常路径。 短期上方关键阻力位位于布林带上轨4520美元附近。若能果断突破，将打开进一步上行空间，有望重新 测试历史高点4550美元，并向4600美元心理关口发起冲击。 下方初始支撑位于4305-4300美元区间，对应12月29日低点及重要整数位。若失守该区域，修正可能延 续，下方目标指向12月16日低点4271美元附近。 黄金策略提示：（临盘试探为主，破位再做调整） 临盘阻力：4387.4397.4430 临盘支撑：4340.4323.4305 临盘：支撑和阻力点位建议触及尝试轻仓介入多空误差±2．建议防守5个点，初次看15个点左右 12月30日，在全球经济不确定性与地缘政治风险持续升温的背景下，黄金作为传统避险资产再度受到 ...

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over $200, as profit-taking occurred after a bullish week, but the overall trend remains upward with technical support from moving averages [1][12]. Group 1: Market Performance - On December 29, gold opened at $4,537.12 per ounce, reached a high of $4,548.58, and then fell to a low of $4,303.73, closing at $4,331.93, marking a daily decline of $202.19 or 4.46% [1][12]. - The daily trading range was $244.85, indicating high volatility during the session [1][12]. Group 2: Future Outlook - The opening on December 30 saw gold prices supported by buying interest at the mid-chart level, with geopolitical tensions providing a positive boost [3][13]. - Despite a bearish outlook from upcoming U.S. economic indicators, the long-term bullish sentiment for gold remains intact due to global economic uncertainties and geopolitical risks [3][14]. - The market is closely watching the Federal Reserve's upcoming policy meeting minutes, which may influence gold prices depending on the tone regarding interest rates [14][16]. Group 3: Technical Analysis - The gold price is currently supported by various moving averages, indicating potential buying opportunities if prices retrace to these levels [9][10]. - The monthly chart shows a potential bearish pattern, suggesting risks of a drop to the $4,000-$3,900 range, but a strong performance in the following month could lead to a bullish outlook towards $5,500-$6,000 [16][19]. Group 4: Influencing Factors - The selection of the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a critical factor that could either support or hinder gold prices, with expectations leaning towards a more dovish approach [4][8][17]. - Continued adjustments in central bank reserve structures and persistent inflationary pressures are expected to support gold demand in the long term [16].

Market Overview - International gold prices experienced a significant drop, falling over $200, as investors opted for profit-taking after a week of bullish activity and a surge in silver prices [3] - Despite the recent decline, the overall trend remains bullish, supported by global economic uncertainties, geopolitical risks, and central bank gold purchases [3] Technical Analysis - Gold prices fell from a peak to a low of 4305, indicating a substantial decline, but the market has not broken key support levels, suggesting a potential for recovery [4] - If gold stabilizes above 4400, it may indicate a shift back to a strong bullish trend, with targets set at 4500 [4] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to consider entering long positions in gold, particularly if prices approach 4330, with initial targets at 4400 and further upside potential at 4500 [4] - For domestic gold contracts, a cautious approach is recommended, with opportunities to enter long positions as the market adjusts after recent declines [4]

2 0 2 5 地缘政治、关税调整与技术变革交织，全球经济不确定性显著上升。大宗价格波动、投资信 心变化与区域竞争格局重塑，正在重排未来五年的增长与资本流向。 在这一背景下，企业与城市的竞争力愈发取决于对结构性趋势的洞察，以及在波动环境中保 持韧性与果断决策的能力。 1 全球五大变数 未来五年，地缘政治、科技突破与制度演进等关键变量将深刻重塑全球运行逻辑，企业 需提前识别长期趋势，而非被短期波动牵引。 2 大宗价格博弈 关税政策调整正在改变外商直接投资预期，亚洲经济体面临资本重新配置与产业布局再 选择的关键考验。 4 城市创新跃迁 灵蛇探机：把握大宗市场价格脉动，蛇年新策略迎接新开局 中国城市创新动能强劲，潜力排名跃升——科尔尼发布2025年全球城市指数报告 科尔尼：未来五年全球五大变数 大宗商品价格高度分化与剧烈波动成为常态，企业需以数据驱动的采购与定价体系，提 升应对周期与结构性变化的能力。 3 投资信心重塑 科尔尼2025外商直接投资信心指数®报告暨最新关税政策对亚洲各国的潜在影响 全球经济修复与下行风险并存，区域增长出现分化，亚洲成为主要增长引擎，但贸易放 缓与碎片化压力持续存在。 6 CEO 战略转 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in gold prices, reaching historical highs, is driven by macroeconomic factors, geopolitical risks, and increased demand from central banks and investors [1][4][5]. Group 1: Gold Price Trends - As of December 22, the London spot gold price has surpassed $4,400 per ounce, marking a 67% increase from early 2025 when it was below $2,600 [1]. - International gold prices have shown a volatile upward trend since early December, with a cumulative increase of approximately 4% since the beginning of the month [2]. - COMEX gold prices reached a new historical high of $4,425 per ounce on December 22, indicating strong market momentum [4]. Group 2: Factors Influencing Gold Prices - The U.S. labor market data, including a higher-than-expected non-farm employment increase and a rising unemployment rate, has led to expectations of a dovish monetary policy in 2026, supporting gold prices [2]. - Central banks globally have continued to increase their gold holdings, with a net addition of 1,045 tons in 2024, providing fundamental support for gold prices [4]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have heightened demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Long-term projections suggest that gold prices could exceed $4,750 to $4,900 per ounce by 2026, driven by persistent demand and limited supply [5]. - The market anticipates a structural imbalance between rigid demand and elastic supply, which will continue to support gold prices in the coming years [5]. - However, there are concerns about potential market corrections and geopolitical developments that could impact gold prices in the short term, with expectations of a trading range between $4,250 and $4,550 per ounce [5].

整体来看，美联储降息引发的美元走软、通胀持续、美债收益率下滑以及地缘政治风险交织，共同驱动黄金价格触及月高，白银创下历史纪录。随着下周非 农数据揭晓和地缘局势演变，黄金市场或迎来年末更多动荡，交易者关注下周即将公布的10月及11月非农数据 基本面： 周五（12月12日）亚盘时段，现货黄金守住隔夜强势突破后盘踞高位，目前暂交投于4270美元附近。在全球经济不确定性笼罩下，黄金作为传统避险资产再 次闪耀光芒。周四（12月11日），随着美联储连续第三次降息25个基点，黄金价格强势反弹，现货黄金上涨1.2%，触及每盎司4285.75美元的逾一个月高 点，而白银更是创下每盎司64.31美元的历史新高。这一轮贵金属行情的爆发，不仅源于美元走软和通胀压力持续，还受到了即将公布的非农就业报告以及 全球地缘政治动荡的推动。投资者们正密切关注这些因素如何交织影响黄金的未来走势。 美元指数的走软是黄金价格触及高点的另一关键推手。降息后，美元指数一度跌至98.13的近两个月低点，美国以外国家的利率预期正转向鹰派，这凸显了 美联储的相对鸽派立场，进一步拖累美元。美元贬值直接降低了以美元计价的黄金对海外买家的成本，刺激了国际需求。此外， ...

12月4日，尽管金价尚未重新触及10月超过4360美元/盎司的历史高位，但多家市场机构的估值模型显 示，当前水平已接近其合理区间。在全球经济不确定性持续升温的背景下，黄金在多轮震荡后的突破中 不断抬升支撑位，这一走势与避险与配置需求增强的市场格局高度吻合。OEXN认为，这种结构性上移 的支撑带反映了资金对长期风险的持续定价。 投资者普遍期待的"大幅回调"迟迟未出现，主要因为经济动能转弱的迹象正在累积，而这正为贵金属提 供稳固底盘。市场押注主要央行将在下周至2026年期间启动连续降息周期，使名义与实际收益率同步下 行，并削弱美元的强势。10月金价在冲上4360美元后出现获利抛压，但回调有限，4000美元上方支撑始 终稳定。短暂整理后，黄金稳固于约4200美元区间。多项模型显示，在全球债务增长与利率下行的组合 下，黄金的表现完全符合逻辑。OEXN认为，这一支撑区间的韧性，反映了长期需求的结构化强化。 在关注上涨潜力的同时，黄金的下行空间亦值得审视。理论上金价可能下探3800美元，但模型显示该区 域同样具备强支撑，跌破4000美元需出现显著外部冲击。在更极端的空头场景中，政策利率需重新升至 5%，而这种情况往往伴随 ...

Core Viewpoint - The global silver supply is expected to tighten in the fourth quarter of 2025, with a projected decrease in mining output, which may support silver prices around $50 per ounce despite a lower shortage compared to last year [3]. Group 1: Silver Market Dynamics - As of November 19, silver futures are trading below 12,050, with a current price of 12,014 yuan/kg, reflecting a 1.06% increase from the opening price of 11,760 yuan/kg [1]. - The global silver mining supply reached 7,000.6 tons in Q3 2025, a decrease of 1.64% from Q2, and is expected to drop to 6,887.81 tons in Q4, a further decline of 1.61% [3]. - The World Silver Association anticipates a fifth consecutive year of global silver supply shortages, although the extent of the shortage is expected to be less severe than last year [3]. Group 2: Demand and Consumption Trends - Industrial silver consumption is projected to decline to 665 million ounces in 2025, a 2% decrease from the previous year, influenced by U.S. tariff policies and geopolitical uncertainties [3]. - The demand for silver in photovoltaic applications is expected to decrease by approximately 5% year-on-year due to reduced silver usage per component, despite record global installation levels [3]. - Demand for silver jewelry and silverware is forecasted to decline by 4% and 11%, respectively, while the demand for silver bars and coins is also expected to drop by 4% [3]. Group 3: Future Price Outlook - The tightening supply situation is unlikely to be fully alleviated, with expectations of a significant increase in silver imports in India during Q4, while China's photovoltaic silver demand remains resilient [3]. - After a period of correction, silver prices are anticipated to enter a new upward trend, with short-term targets set at 12,200 and medium-term at 12,500 [4].