Core Viewpoint - The rapid decline in gold and silver prices is attributed to multiple factors including policy expectations, technical breakdowns, a stronger dollar, and reduced geopolitical risks [3] Price Movements - As of October 24, spot gold fell below $4060 per ounce, dropping over 1.85% during the day [1] - Spot silver touched $47 per ounce, declining over 2% [1] - COMEX gold futures saw a decline of nearly 2%, approaching $4060 per ounce, with a current drop of 1.79% [1] - Current prices include: - London Gold: $4050.228, down $76.262 (-1.85%) [2] - London Silver: $47.850, down $0.996 (-2.04%) [2] - COMEX Gold: $4071.3, down $74.3 (-1.79%) [2] - COMEX Silver: $47.615, down $1.089 (-2.24%) [2] Market Sentiment - U.S. gold stocks fell in pre-market trading, with Coeur Mining down over 4% and both Kinross and Harmony Gold down more than 2% [2] - Citigroup has turned bearish on gold prices, predicting a drop to $4000 within the next three months [3] Long-term Outlook - Despite the short-term decline, long-term support for gold is expected from global economic recession risks and central bank gold purchases, with a projected net increase of over 1000 tons by central banks in 2025 [3] - Investors are advised to closely monitor the upcoming October CPI data (to be released on the 25th) and the Federal Reserve's meeting statements to gauge market direction changes [3]

Core Viewpoint - The market's low opening and subsequent recovery reflect investors' relatively optimistic expectations, indicating significant market resilience [1] Market Performance - On Monday, the Shanghai Composite Index opened significantly lower but reached its lowest point at the opening price, followed by a steady recovery, closing slightly below the five-day moving average [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index also opened lower and recovered, but with less strength than the Shanghai index, closing below the ten-day moving average, suggesting a short-term digestion of previous excess gains [1] Market Trends - The market's focus on the upstream resource sector indicates a shift in investment style, with small and mid-cap stocks showing slight excess returns and the Sci-Tech Innovation Board performing independently [1] - Since the end of August, the Shanghai Composite Index has entered a horizontal consolidation phase, facing resistance above and support below, with the adjustment low remaining above the 2021 market high, indicating that previous resistance levels have become significant support [1] Recent Market Activity - After the holiday, the market attempted to break upward but faced negative information, leading to two consecutive days of adjustment, with the Shanghai Composite Index still closing at the upper edge of the September horizontal consolidation, indicating a strong pullback confirmation phase [1]

Group 1 - The September market is influenced by the upcoming long holiday and seasonal adjustments in investor positions, leading to decreased trading activity [1] - Post-holiday market focus will shift to domestic economic trends, particularly on demand-side policies and supply-side "de-involution" efforts, which are crucial for PPI recovery and corporate profit growth [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index has rebounded, closing above short-term moving averages, while the Shenzhen Component continues to lead the market with increased trading volume of approximately 2.1 trillion yuan [1] Group 2 - The market is currently undergoing technical consolidation after a continuous upward trend, with some sector indices still showing upward momentum, indicating structural investment opportunities [2] - There are signs of profit-taking since late August, suggesting a divergence in short-term market sentiment, but the overall adjustment remains strong [2]

Core Insights - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) meeting minutes indicate that the labor market has not slowed down as expected, suggesting resilience in employment conditions [1] - The risk of a severe global economic downturn has decreased, reflecting a more stable international economic environment [1] Group 1 - The employment market remains robust, contrary to previous expectations of a slowdown [1] - Global economic risks have lessened, indicating improved economic stability [1]

Group 1 - The conflict between Israel and Iran has brought the Strait of Hormuz closer to potential closure than ever before, which could have severe consequences for global markets [1][2] - Analysts warn that any blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could significantly increase energy prices and trigger a global recession, despite the current temporary ceasefire [2][9] - Approximately 25% of global oil trade, equating to 15 to 19 million barrels per day, passes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is also crucial for liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports [2][3] Group 2 - Initial impacts on the oil and gas market were relatively mild, with Brent crude oil prices rising to $79 per barrel, only $9 higher than pre-conflict levels, while U.S. crude oil prices fell by 7.2% to $68.51 per barrel [3][6] - Experts indicate that if the Strait remains blocked for a week or longer, oil prices could easily rise to $150 per barrel, with significant supply disruptions expected [6][7] - The potential for a full-scale war could lead to oil prices exceeding $150 per barrel, especially if key facilities in Saudi Arabia and the UAE are destroyed [7][8] Group 3 - The current ceasefire is viewed as a temporary pause, with the option to close the Strait of Hormuz remaining a consideration for analysts and politicians [10][12] - The crisis has highlighted the rapid escalation potential of conflicts in the region, with the Strait of Hormuz acting as a critical chokepoint for global energy supplies [12]

Gold Market - Gold prices dropped sharply as the market's risk aversion decreased following the announcement of a ceasefire between Iran and Israel, leading to increased selling pressure [1] - The ceasefire has reduced geopolitical risks in the Middle East, resulting in a significant decline in global inflation risks and a shift in investor preference towards higher-yielding assets like stocks [1] - Market sentiment has improved, and it is likely that funds will continue to flow out of gold, making it less attractive in the near term [1] - Technical analysis indicates a high probability of a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with potential short-term support at the long-term moving average [1] Oil Market - Oil prices reversed their upward trend due to the easing of geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, which had previously threatened oil transportation [2] - The likelihood of Iran closing the Strait of Hormuz has dropped from over 50% to 4% as the conflict subsides, removing the rationale for rising oil prices [2] - Despite the reduction in geopolitical risks, the fundamental outlook for oil remains weak due to oversupply, and OPEC+ is expected to continue increasing production, limiting price rebounds [2] - Technical indicators suggest a high probability of a large bearish candle on the daily chart, with potential short-term resistance at $67.20 [2] Copper Market - Copper prices have shown signs of consolidation with small fluctuations, supported by long-term moving averages [3] - The 4-hour chart indicates a clear upward shift in price action, suggesting a potential for continued volatility around the support level of $4.80 [3] Nikkei 225 Index - The Nikkei 225 index is at a high price level with a bullish moving average arrangement, indicating a strong potential for continuation of the upward trend [4] - However, the index may face a pullback after failing to challenge previous highs, with short-term support around 38,130 [4]

Core Viewpoint - The European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points, which may be the last cut in the current cycle [1] Group 1: Economic Indicators - The anticipated rate cut is influenced by declining energy prices and upcoming fiscal stimulus measures [1] - The global economic recession risk has decreased, prompting a more cautious approach to further policy actions [1] Group 2: Market Expectations - Market expectations are fully aligned with the anticipated 25 basis point cut on Thursday, with another cut expected before the end of the year [1]

Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - The report analyzes various futures markets, including bonds, stocks, precious metals, and commodities. It suggests that while the external environment is favorable for bond futures, caution is advised due to the relatively low bond yields and the potential impact of tariffs. For stock index futures, the long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended. In the precious metals market, the long - term bullish trend of gold is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised. For commodities, different strategies are proposed based on the supply - demand, valuation, and technical analysis of each product [6][10][12]. Summary by Related Catalogs Bonds - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, bond futures closed significantly lower. The 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year main contracts fell by 1.31%, 0.46%, 0.2%, and 0.08% respectively. The central bank conducted 43 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net investment of 43 billion yuan [5]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The external environment is favorable for bond futures, but the current bond yields are relatively low. The Chinese economy shows a stable recovery trend, and the Sino - US trade agreement has made progress. It is expected that the volatility will increase, and caution should be maintained [6][7]. Stock Index Futures - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, stock index futures showed mixed results. The main contracts of CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 stock index futures rose by 1.23%, 0.77%, 1.48%, and 1.56% respectively [8][9]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US economic and trade talks are a positive sign, but the structural contradictions and deep - seated differences between the two countries still exist. The long - term performance of Chinese equity assets is still optimistic, and considering going long on stock index futures is recommended [9][10][11]. Precious Metals - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main gold contract closed at 772.28 with a decline of 2.05%, and the main silver contract closed at 8,232 with an increase of 0.78% [12]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The complex global trade and financial environment, the increased risk of global economic recession due to tariff disturbances, and the potential passive easing of monetary policies around the world are expected to drive up the price of gold. The long - term bullish trend of precious metals is expected to continue, and going long on gold futures on dips is advised [12][13]. Steel Products (including Rebar, Hot - Rolled Coil, Iron Ore, Coking Coal, Coke, and Ferroalloys) - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rebounded significantly. The spot prices of Tangshan billet, Shanghai rebar, and Shanghai hot - rolled coil are 2,940 yuan/ton, 3,040 - 3,170 yuan/ton, and 3,230 - 3,250 yuan/ton respectively [14]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downward trend of the real estate industry suppresses the price of rebar, but the peak demand season may provide short - term support. The valuation of steel prices is low, and there are signs of a stop - fall. Investors can focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds, take profits in time, and pay attention to position management [14]. - **Iron Ore** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, iron ore futures rose significantly. The spot prices of PB powder and Super Special powder are 760 yuan/ton and 626 yuan/ton respectively [16]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The increase in iron ore demand and the decrease in supply and inventory support the price. The valuation of iron ore has decreased but is still the highest among black - series products. Investors can focus on buying opportunities at low levels, take profits on rebounds, and stop losses if the previous low is broken [16][17]. - **Coking Coal and Coke** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, coking coal and coke futures rebounded slightly [19]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of coking coal is loose, and the transaction atmosphere is weak. The demand for coke from some steel mills has decreased, and the second - round price increase is difficult to implement. The prices of coking coal and coke futures have reached new lows, and short - selling opportunities on rebounds can be considered [19]. - **Ferroalloys** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main manganese - silicon contract rose 1.80% to 5,866 yuan/ton, and the main silicon - iron contract rose 1.55% to 5,636 yuan/ton [21]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for ferroalloys is weak, and the supply is still high. The inventory of manganese - silicon and silicon - iron is high. For manganese - silicon, call option opportunities at low levels can be considered; for silicon - iron, short - sellers can consider exiting at the bottom [23]. Energy (including Crude Oil, Fuel Oil) - **Crude Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, INE crude oil rose significantly due to the cooling of Sino - US tariff tensions [24]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: OPEC+ will increase production in May - June, and the market is worried about oversupply. The reduction of Sino - US tariffs is beneficial to crude oil, but $65 per barrel of Brent crude is an important resistance level. It is recommended to wait and see for the main crude oil contract [25][26]. - **Fuel Oil** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, fuel oil followed crude oil and rose significantly. Singapore's land - based fuel oil inventory has dropped to a seven - week low [27]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The possible relaxation of US sanctions on Russia is negative for high - sulfur fuel oil, while the reduction of tariff friction and the decrease in inventory are positive. A long - biased operation for the main fuel oil contract is recommended [27][28]. Rubber (including Synthetic Rubber, Natural Rubber) - **Synthetic Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main synthetic rubber contract rose 3.28%, and the mainstream price in Shandong was raised to 11,750 yuan/ton [29]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply pressure continues, but the demand is expected to improve due to the slowdown of tariffs, and the cost has rebounded. It is short - term bullish, but the upward space is limited [29][30][31]. - **Natural Rubber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main natural rubber contract rose 2.18%, and the 20 - rubber main contract rose 2.40%. The Shanghai spot price was raised to 14,900 yuan/ton [32]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The global supply is expected to increase, and the demand may improve due to tariff changes. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. However, considering the overall situation, it may show a weak - side fluctuation [32][33]. Chemical Products (including PVC, Urea, PX, PTA, Ethylene Glycol, Short - Fiber, Bottle Chip, Soda Ash, Glass, Caustic Soda, Pulp, Lithium Carbonate) - **PVC** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main PVC contract rose 0.27%, and the spot price remained stable [34]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply is gradually recovering, and the demand is weakly recovering. The market is expected to fluctuate weakly at the bottom [34][35][37]. - **Urea** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main urea contract fell 0.26%, and the price in Shandong Linyi was raised to 1,970 yuan/ton [38]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic export policy has been adjusted, and the subsequent agricultural demand will start. It is expected to fluctuate strongly. Attention should be paid to policy changes and the price difference between domestic and foreign markets [38][39]. - **PX** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PX2509 main contract rose 3.23%, and the PXN spread rose to $210/ton [40]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term crude oil price is expected to rebound, and PX is expected to follow the cost - side rebound. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to the changes in crude oil prices and macro - policies [40][41]. - **PTA** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the PTA2509 main contract rose 3.11% [42]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The short - term supply - demand structure of PTA has improved, and the cost is expected to turn better. The price may have upward repair space. Buying in the low - range is recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [42]. - **Ethylene Glycol** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main ethylene glycol contract rose 1.97% [43]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The restart of coal - based ethylene glycol plants is less than expected, the supply increase is not obvious, and the inventory is slightly decreasing. The price is expected to rise. Buying on dips is recommended, and attention should be paid to port inventory and macro - policies [43][44]. - **Short - Fiber** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the short - fiber 2506 main contract rose 2.71% [45]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The downstream terminal demand has slightly recovered, and the supply - demand fundamentals have improved. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly following the cost - side. Short - term long positions on dips are recommended, and attention should be paid to risk control [45]. - **Bottle Chip** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the bottle - chip 2506 main contract rose 2.12% [46]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The raw material price has strengthened, and the supply - demand fundamentals of bottle chips have improved. The price is expected to rebound following the cost - side. Attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices [46]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of soda ash closed at 1,318 yuan/ton, up 0.15% [47]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of soda ash remains high, and the prices of raw materials are falling. The inventory has increased slightly. In May, there will be concentrated device maintenance, which may cause short - term market adjustments. Short - sellers at low levels should adjust their positions [47][48]. - **Glass** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of glass closed at 1,045 yuan/ton, down 0.29% [49]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The production line is at a low level, and the actual supply - demand fundamentals have no obvious driving force. The tariff adjustment may affect downstream products, and the market sentiment may be repaired in the short term, but the actual repair degree remains to be seen [49][50]. - **Caustic Soda** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2509 contract of caustic soda closed at 2,545 yuan/ton, up 2.58% [51]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for caustic soda from alumina and non - aluminum downstream industries is limited. Some plants will enter the maintenance period in May, which may have a certain driving force. Attention should be paid to the operation of enterprise plants and the fluctuation of liquid chlorine prices [52][53]. - **Pulp** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main 2507 contract of pulp closed at 5,256 yuan/ton, up 1.43% [54]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The domestic and international supply of pulp is abundant, but the downstream consumption is weak. The market is in a weak pattern. Attention should be paid to whether international pulp mills start substantial production cuts and the implementation rhythm of domestic consumption stimulus policies [55][56]. - **Lithium Carbonate** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main lithium carbonate contract closed at 64,040 yuan/ton, up 0.35% [57]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of lithium carbonate is still in excess, the demand is weakening, and the inventory is increasing. It is expected to run weakly [57]. Metals (including Copper, Tin, Nickel, Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon) - **Copper** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai copper fluctuated and rose, closing above the 60 - day moving average. The average price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,260 yuan/ton, up 70 yuan/ton [58]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: Comex copper is weak, and the 60 - day line of Shanghai copper has been suppressing the price. The Sino - US talks have achieved important results, and the copper tariff may not be implemented. The copper price is expected to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see for the main Shanghai copper contract [58][59]. - **Tin** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai tin rose 1.33% to 264,570 yuan/ton [60]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of tin is expected to increase, but the current supply is tight. The downstream demand has phased support, and the inventory is decreasing. The price is expected to face upward pressure and fluctuate weakly [61]. - **Nickel** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, Shanghai nickel fell 1.26% to 124,180 yuan/ton [62]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is tightened, and the cost is supported. However, the downstream acceptance of high prices is not high, and the demand may weaken in the off - season. The market is expected to remain in a state of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see cautiously [62]. - **Industrial Silicon/Polysilicon** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main industrial silicon contract closed at 8,320 yuan/ton, up 0.24%, and the main polysilicon contract closed at 38,450 yuan/ton, up 2.49% [63]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The demand for the industrial silicon/polysilicon industry chain is weak, and the supply reduction is limited. The price is affected by delivery factors and production - cut news, and the fluctuation is intensified. It is still in the capacity - clearing cycle, and a bearish view is maintained. Attention should be paid to the start - up changes in the southwest region during the wet season [63][64]. Agricultural Products (including Soybean Oil, Soybean Meal, Palm Oil, Rapeseed Meal, Rapeseed Oil, Cotton, Sugar, Apple, Live Pigs, Eggs, Corn & Starch, Logs) - **Soybean Oil and Soybean Meal** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, the main soybean meal contract fell 0.17% to 2,908 yuan/ton, and the main soybean oil contract rose 0.03% to 7,814 yuan/ton [65]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US trade friction has eased, and the supply of soybeans is expected to be loose. The upward pressure on the main soybean meal contract is large, and it is recommended to wait and see. The cost support for soybean oil at the bottom is enhanced, and call option opportunities at the bottom support range can be considered [65][66]. - **Palm Oil** - **Market Performance**: The Malaysian palm oil market was closed. The export volume of Malaysian palm oil products from May 1 - 10, 2025, increased by 1.9% year - on - year [67]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to expand the spread between soybean oil and palm oil [69]. - **Rapeseed Meal and Rapeseed Oil** - **Market Performance**: Canadian rapeseed contracts showed mixed results. The domestic inventory of rapeseed has increased, the inventory of rapeseed meal has decreased, and the inventory of rapeseed oil has slightly decreased [70]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: It is recommended to consider the opportunity to go long on rapeseed meal after a pullback [71]. - **Cotton** - **Market Performance**: On the previous trading day, domestic Zhengzhou cotton rose significantly, and the overnight external cotton market closed slightly higher [72]. - **Analysis and Strategy**: The Sino - US negotiation is favorable for cotton, but the USDA's supply - demand report is negative. The domestic downstream demand is weak. It is recommended to operate with a light position and pay close attention to the S

Group 1 - The external and internal environment has improved, leading to a market rebound as international trade conflicts have not escalated and negotiations with the US have begun [1] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cut to support the real economy, encouraging market sentiment and slightly shifting the focus upward [1] - The market has entered an earnings vacuum period after the annual and quarterly reports have been disclosed, with thematic investments becoming more active [1] Group 2 - The two markets experienced a volatile rebound with increased trading volume, as the Shanghai Composite Index has continuously risen and filled the gap from April 7 [1] - The Shenzhen Component Index showed a catch-up characteristic but has not yet filled the upper gap, indicating a mixed performance [1] - Market hotspots last week were mainly concentrated in the military and high-end manufacturing sectors, with a general upward trend across various investment styles [1]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the global economic growth is projected to be 2.7% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026, which is a downward revision from earlier estimates of 3.0% for both years [1] - Among 167 economists surveyed, 101 believe that the risk of a global recession is high, while 66 consider the risk to be low [1] - A significant majority of 292 out of 317 economists agree that tariffs have negatively impacted global business sentiment, with no respondents indicating a positive effect [1]