1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the report 2. Core Views of the Report - Short - term cotton market is likely to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend. Future issuance of sliding - duty quotas will be a major influencing factor on the supply side, and the shift from the off - season to the peak season in August will affect demand. If demand fails to meet expectations, it will have a negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton futures [8]. - The U.S. cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillatory manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short - term, but with limited upward space [9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, the closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CY05 contracts increased, while CF09, CY09 decreased, and CY01 had a small increase. For volume, most contracts showed a decrease. In terms of open interest, most also decreased. For cotton yarn futures, similar trends were observed in terms of price, volume, and open interest changes [3]. - **Spot Market**: The CCIndex3128B price increased by 143 yuan/ton, Cot A increased by 0.50 cents/pound, and the price of polyester staple fiber increased by 70 yuan/ton. Other spot prices remained stable or decreased slightly [3]. - **Spreads**: In cotton and cotton yarn inter - delivery spreads, there were different changes in spreads between different delivery months. In cross - variety spreads, the CY - CF spreads also changed, and the internal - external spreads of cotton and yarn also had corresponding fluctuations [3]. 3.2 Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - By the week ending August 30, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 72.8%, 12.5 percentage points higher than the previous week but 14.8% slower than the same period last year. The progress in major producing states was slow, but sunny weather in Mato Grosso is expected to speed up the harvest [6]. - As of the week ending September 1, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 0.7 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 87%. The cumulative market volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1749 million tons, a year - on - year decline of 5%. The final market volume is expected to be around 5.2 - 5.22 million tons [6]. - Pakistan's cotton imports in the 2024 - 2025 season increased from 683,000 tons to 814,000 tons, and the year - on - year growth rate increased from 233% to 298% [7]. - The total amount of sliding - duty processing trade quotas for cotton imports in 2025 is 200,000 tons, and they will be issued based on contracts [7]. - **Trading Logic**: After the Sino - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. On the supply side, whether additional sliding - duty quotas will be issued is the main influencing factor. On the demand side, demand is expected to improve in August as it shifts from the off - season to the peak season. If demand is weaker than expected, it will be negative for Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: The U.S. cotton is expected to be slightly stronger in an oscillatory manner, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillatory trend in the short - term with limited upward space [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [9]. - **Options**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The trading volume in the pure - cotton yarn market is average. After the decline of Zhengzhou cotton, the market sentiment is cautious, and downstream purchases are mainly for rigid demand. The price of pure - cotton yarn is expected to be stable [12]. - The trading volume in the all - cotton grey fabric market has not recovered as well as in previous years. Mills reported limited order increases, especially in foreign orders. It is difficult to raise the price of grey fabrics, and mills mostly choose to wait and see. If the raw material price continues to rise, mills may try to raise prices [12]. 3.3 Options - **Option Contract Data**: On September 2, 2025, for options such as CF601C14000.CZC, CF601P13600.CZC, and CF601P13400.CZC, there were different changes in closing prices, implied volatilities, and other indicators [14]. - **Volatility**: The 120 - day HV of cotton decreased slightly compared to the previous day. The implied volatilities of different option contracts were around 11.3% - 11.6% [14]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton showed certain values, and the trading volumes of both call and put options increased. It is recommended to adopt a wait - and - see approach for options [15][16]. 3.4 Relevant Attachments - The report provides multiple charts including the internal - external cotton price spread under 1% tariff, the basis of different delivery months of cotton, the spread between cotton yarn and cotton futures, and the inter - delivery spreads of cotton futures, showing the historical trends of relevant data [17][23][25][30]

Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 14070, 14025, and 13690 respectively, with changes of -5, -5, and -70. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 20090, 20350, and 20240 respectively, with changes of -5, 0, and 35 [3]. - The CCIndex3128B price was 15336 yuan/ton, up 2; Cot A was 78.20 cents/pound, down 0.70; (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.95, down 0.62; polyester staple fiber was 7450, up 70; viscose staple fiber was 12900, unchanged [3]. - The CY IndexC32S price was 20760, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21865, down 32; Indian S - 6 was 55800, unchanged; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11030, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17250, unchanged [3]. - The 1 - month to 5 - month cotton spread was 45, unchanged; 5 - month to 9 - month was 335, up 65; 9 - month to 1 - month was - 380, down 65. The 1 - month to 5 - month棉纱 spread was - 260, down 20355; 5 - month to 9 - month was 110, up 20315; 9 - month to 1 - month was 150, up 40 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6020, unchanged; CY05 - CF05 was 6325, up 20355; CY09 - CF09 was 6550, up 105. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1439, down 6; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 788, down 6; the internal - external yarn spread was - 1105, up 32 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - From August 21 to 27, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 64.6mm, 18.1mm higher than normal and 66.7mm lower than last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 27 was 705.6mm, 78.8mm higher than normal. The cotton growth was good, but there were reports of bollworm disasters in Andhra Pradesh [6]. - As of the week ending August 23, Brazil's (98%) cotton harvest progress was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but 15.8% slower than last year, mainly due to delayed planting in Mato Grosso [6]. - India temporarily waived cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30, 2025, and extended the exemption to December 31, 2025 [6]. - In 2025, the total quota for cotton import under the sliding - scale tariff for processing trade was 200,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application [7]. Trading Logic - After the Sino - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, reducing short - term tariff impacts. China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. The cotton supply is tight, and the issuance of sliding - scale tariffs will be a key factor. Demand is expected to improve from August as it shifts from the off - season to the peak season. If demand is lower than expected, it will be negative for Zhengzhou cotton. In the short term, the market is likely to be slightly bullish [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly bullish, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with limited upside [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The price of pure - cotton greige fabric was stable, with limited real - order transactions and a lukewarm market. Weaving mills' shipments improved slightly, and they were not fully optimistic about the September peak season [12]. - The trading volume of pure - cotton yarn decreased compared to the previous period, but overall transactions were okay. Spinning mills sold at market prices. Some spinning mills resumed production, increasing the operating rate. There are concerns about large - scale spinning mills' low - price promotions in early September, and yarn prices are expected to be stable in the short term [12]. Group 3: Options - On August 28, 2025, for the CF601C14000.CZC option, the closing price was 356.00, down 4.6%, with an implied volatility (IV) of 10.8%. For the CF601P13600.CZC option, the closing price was 122.00, up 15.1%, with an IV of 10.2%. For the CF601P13400.CZC option, the closing price was 82.00, up 30.2%, with an IV of 10.6% [13]. - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7774, and the PCR of the trading volume was 0.5211. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased [14]. - Options strategy: Wait and see [15].

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: August 27, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14075, down 25; trading volume was 192,722 hands, an increase of 39913; open interest was 508,803, an increase of 739 [3] - CF05 contract closed at 14030, down 25; trading volume was 7,362 hands, an increase of 247; open interest was 55,039, an increase of 188 [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13760, down 20; trading volume was 20,444 hands, a decrease of 2381; open interest was 44,086, a decrease of 12520 [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20095, down 65; trading volume was 81 hands, an increase of 32; open interest was 377, a decrease of 3 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20395, unchanged; trading volume was 1 hand, unchanged; open interest was 6, unchanged [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20205, up 125; trading volume was 33 hands, unchanged; open interest was 517, a decrease of 9 [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15342 yuan/ton, up 107; CY IndexC32S was 20760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 78.90 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21880 yuan/ton, down 11 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 76.57 cents/pound, down 0.68; Indian S - 6 was 54000 rupees/candy, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11030 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was 270, down 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 315, up 5 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 300, down 65; 5 - 9 spread was 190, down 125; 9 - 1 spread was 110, up 190 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6020, down 40; CY05 - CF05 was 6365, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6445, up 145 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1445, up 8; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 794, up 8; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1120, up 11 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In the US cotton main production area (92.9% output share), the average temperature was 83.51°F, 1.82°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.82 inches, 0.06 inches higher. In Texas, the average temperature was 84.78°F, 4.22°F lower, and the average rainfall was 0.51 inches, 0.46 inches higher. The growth progress is lagging, but the good - quality rate is high [6] - As of the week ending August 23, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, 15.8% slower than the same period last year, mainly due to the lag in Mato Grosso [6] - As of August 23, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 10.787 million hectares, 352,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, a 3.2% year - on - year decline. The planting area growth is slowing [7] - The total volume of the 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application basis [7] Trading Logic - Macroscopically, after the recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended by 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still tight, and whether additional sliding - scale tariffs will be issued is the key supply - side factor. Demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August. Overall, the short - term market is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short term with limited upward space [11] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] Cotton Yarn Industry News - This week, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened again. The cotton yarn market had fair transactions, and spinning mills reduced inventory by selling at market prices, but there was resistance to price increases. The yarn price is expected to be stable in the short term [13] - The cotton grey fabric market price was slightly weak, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. Weaving mills mainly digested inventory, and there were no conditions for price increases [13] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.0918, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601C14000 was 10.8%, CF601P13600 was 10%, and CF601P13400 was 10.3% [15] - Option Strategy Suggestion: Today, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7638, and the volume PCR was 0.6056. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [16][17] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [20][23][28][29]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: August 21, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14030, down 25; trading volume was 145,497 lots, a decrease of 137,731 lots; open interest was 481,950 lots, an increase of 3,484 lots [3] - CF05 contract closed at 14005, down 35; trading volume was 5,618 lots, a decrease of 11,691 lots; open interest was 54,311 lots, an increase of 863 lots [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13770, down 30; trading volume was 23,693 lots, a decrease of 21,059 lots; open interest was 96,107 lots, a decrease of 9,010 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20055, down 30; trading volume was 54 lots, a decrease of 86 lots; open interest was 373 lots, a decrease of 23 lots [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20290; trading volume was 1 lot; open interest was 4 lots [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20025, down 20; trading volume was 108 lots, a decrease of 86 lots; open interest was 662 lots, a decrease of 38 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,210 yuan/ton, down 33 yuan; CY IndexC32S was 20,700 yuan, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 78.95 cents/pound, down 0.35 cents; FCY IndexC33S was 22,045 yuan, down 88 yuan [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 76.85 cents/pound, down 0.30 cents; Indian S - 6 was 54,000 yuan, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7,450 yuan, up 70 yuan; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11,030 yuan, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12,900 yuan, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17,250 yuan, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 25, up 10; 5 - 9 spread was 235, down 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 260, down 5 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 235, down 20,320; 5 - 9 spread was 265, up 20,310; 9 - 1 spread was - 30, up 10 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6025, down 5; CY05 - CF05 was 6285, up 20,325; CY09 - CF09 was 6255, up 10 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff cotton spread was 1304, up 4; sliding - scale tariff cotton spread was 653, down 7; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1345, up 88 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of the week ending August 18, 2025, India's weekly cotton market volume was 46,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 401%; the cumulative market volume in the 2024/25 season was 5.1596 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4% [6] - From August 14 - 20, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's major cotton - producing areas (93.6%) was 108.2mm, 60mm higher than normal and 71mm higher than the same period last year [6] - As of July 31, 2025, CAI's assessment of India's 2024/25 cotton balance sheet showed an increase in initial inventory by 150,000 tons, demand by 100,000 tons, exports by 20,000 tons, and ending inventory by 30,000 tons compared to the previous month's assessment [7] Trading Logic - After recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended by 90 days, with a weakened short - term impact; China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities [8] - On the supply side, cotton supply remains tight, and the issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas will be a key factor; on the demand side, demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August [8] - In general, the short - term market is likely to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly bullish and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly bullish and volatile trend in the short term but with limited upward space [9] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - The pure cotton yarn market has seen some transactions recently, with increased downstream replenishment purchases, but overall it is still average, and feedback from spinning mills varies [11] - Cotton yarn prices are strong and stable with a slight increase, but there is no obvious increase in downstream orders yet [11] - The demand for cotton grey fabrics has not improved significantly, with no improvement in downstream inquiries and sampling; the shipment speed of weaving factories has not accelerated, and the enthusiasm of traders to purchase has not increased [13] Group 4: Options - As of August 21, 2025, for option contract CF601C14000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14,030 yuan, the closing price was 338 yuan, up 0.9%, with an implied volatility (IV) of 10.5% [14] - For option contract CF601P13600.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14,030 yuan, the closing price was 138 yuan, down 9.8%, with an IV of 10.1% [14] - For option contract CF601P13400.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14,030 yuan, the closing price was 85 yuan, down 18.3%, with an IV of 10% [14] - The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton on this day was 10.2496, slightly higher than the previous day [14] - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7867, and the volume PCR was 0.6430, with an increase in both call and put trading volumes [15] - Option strategy suggestion: Sell put options [16] Group 5: Related Attachments - Figures include 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton price spread, cotton January basis, cotton May basis, cotton September basis, CY05 - CF05 spread, CY01 - CF01 spread, CF9 - 1 spread, and CF5 - 9 spread [18][22][25][29]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report - Date: August 20, 2024 - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14,055, down 45; trading volume was 283,228 lots, an increase of 136,381 lots; open interest was 478,466 lots, a decrease of 10,082 lots [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20,085, down 55; trading volume was 140 lots, an increase of 15 lots; open interest was 396 lots, an increase of 24 lots [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15,240 yuan/ton, up 6; CY IndexC32S was 20,700 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 79.30 cents/pound, up 0.15; FCY IndexC33S was 22,045 yuan/ton, down 88 [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spread: 1 - 5 month spread was 15, down 5; 5 - 9 month spread was 240, down 20; 9 - 1 month spread was - 255, up 25 [3] - Yarn inter - month spread: 1 - 5 month spread was 20,085, down 55; 5 - 9 month spread was - 20,045, up 50; 9 - 1 month spread was - 40, up 5 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 was 6,030, down 10; CY05 - CF05 was - 14,040, up 40; CY09 - CF09 was 6,245, down 30 [3] - Domestic - foreign spread: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1,300, up 41; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 660, up 28; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1,345, up 88 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - As of August 16, Brazil's cotton harvest progress was 48.9% (98% of the area), a 9.9 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, 16.3% slower than last year [6] - As of August 16, 2025, India's 2025/26 cotton planting area was 10.696 million hectares, a 3.7% year - on - year decrease [6] - As of July 31, 2025, CAI's assessment of India's 2024/25 cotton balance sheet showed an increase in beginning inventory by 150,000 tons, demand by 100,000 tons, exports by 20,000 tons, and ending inventory by 30,000 tons compared to the previous month [7] Trading Logic - Macro: After recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities [8] - Fundamentals: Supply is tight, and the issuance of sliding - scale tariff quotas is a key factor; demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August, but if it falls short of expectations, it will be negative for Zhengzhou cotton [8] - Overall: The short - term market is likely to be slightly bullish and volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly bullish and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish and volatile in the short term with limited upside [9] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [10] - Options: Sell put options [11] Cotton Yarn Industry News - Pure - cotton yarn market: Recent transactions are fair, spinning mills' inventory has decreased slightly, but profit margins have not improved significantly, with inland spinning mills' cash - flow losses at around 500 yuan/ton; short - term yarn prices are expected to be stable [13] - Cotton gray fabric market: Demand has not improved continuously, weaving mills' shipment speed is average, and traders' purchasing enthusiasm is low; inventory is slowly decreasing [13] Group 4: Options Option Data - On August 20, 2025, for CF601C14000.CZC, the underlying contract price was 14,055, the closing price was 363, down 7.9%, IV was 10.7%, Delta was 0.5385, etc. [15] - The 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2651, with a slight increase from the previous day; the implied volatility of CF601 - C - 14000 was 10.7%, CF601 - P - 13600 was 10.4%, and CF601 - P - 13400 was 10.4% [15] Option Strategies - The PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7956 for open interest and 0.8463 for trading volume; both call and put trading volumes increased [16] - Recommendation: Sell put options [17]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - Short - term market利多 factors for Zhengzhou cotton (郑棉) are relatively clear. It is expected that the downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it will probably maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend. The future trend of US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger in oscillation, while Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term but with limited upward space [8][9]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Information - **Futures Market**: For cotton futures, CF01 closed at 14100 with a decline of 25, CF05 at 14080 with a decline of 5, and CF09 at 13820 with a decline of 10. For cotton yarn futures, CY01 closed at 20140 with a decline of 25, CY05 at 20330 with no change, and CY09 at 20095 with a decline of 25. Volume and open - interest changes varied among contracts [3]. - **Spot Market**: CCIndex3128B was priced at 15243 yuan/ton with an increase of 27, Cot A at 79.15 cents/pound with a decline of 0.25. Different yarn and fiber products also had their respective price changes [3]. - **Spreads**: Cotton and cotton yarn inter - month spreads and cross - variety spreads showed different changes. For example, the 1 - 5 month spread of cotton was 20 with a decline of 20, and the CY01 - CF01 spread was 6040 with no change [3]. Market News and Views - **Cotton Market News** - As of August 17, the budding rate of US cotton in 15 major cotton - growing states was 97%, 1 percentage point slower than last year and 4 percentage points faster than the five - year average. The boll - setting rate was 73%, 10 percentage points slower than last year and 7 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The boll - opening rate was 13%, 5 percentage points slower than last year and 3 percentage points slower than the five - year average. The good - quality rate was 55%, 13 percentage points higher than last year and 10 percentage points higher than the five - year average [6]. - As of the week ending August 16, the total harvesting progress of Brazilian cotton was 48.9%, an increase of 9.9 percentage points from the previous week but 16.3% slower than last year. The Brazilian National Commodity Supply Company (CONAB) slightly reduced the production forecast for the 2024/25 season to 3.935 million tons [6][7]. - **Trading Logic**: Macroscopically, after the China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, weakening the short - term tariff impact. The domestic anti - involution policy has a positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still tight, and the key factor for supply is whether additional sliding - scale tariff quotas will be issued. In August, demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season. If demand fails to meet expectations, it will have a negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton [8]. - **Trading Strategies** - **Single - side**: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will be slightly stronger in oscillation, and Zhengzhou cotton will maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term but with limited upward space [9]. - **Arbitrage**: Adopt a wait - and - see approach [10]. - **Options**: Sell put options [11]. - **Cotton Yarn Industry News** - The Zhengzhou cotton market has been oscillating recently. The overall market of pure - cotton yarn has improved but is still mediocre. There is resistance to price increases, and market confidence is average. Spinning mills focus on sales, with inland spinning mills operating at low capacity, stable overall operation, and slightly reduced inventory [13]. - The overall demand for all - cotton gray fabrics has not been fully released. Although some report an improvement compared to July, most fabric mills say sales are still slow, with few actual orders. The production enthusiasm of some local fabric mills has slightly recovered, and the operating rate has increased, but it is expected to be difficult to further recover [13]. Options - **Option Data**: The implied volatility of CF601C14000.CZC was 10.2%, CF601P13600.CZC was 10.3%, and CF601P13400.CZC was 10.3%. The 120 - day historical volatility (HV) of cotton increased slightly compared to the previous day [15]. - **Option Strategy Suggestion**: The position PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7849, and the trading volume PCR was 0.7600. Both the trading volumes of call and put options increased. The option strategy is to sell put options [16][17].

Market Overview - The US and China have suspended the implementation of a 24% tariff on each other's goods for 90 days, leading to a global stock market rally, with the ChiNext Index leading the gains[3] - The US July PPI increased by 0.9% month-on-month, significantly above the expected 0.2%, indicating rising inflationary pressures[3] - The 10Y US Treasury yield rose to 4.33%, while the US dollar index slightly declined, remaining below 100[3] Fund Flows - As of August 14, 2025, overseas active funds saw a net outflow of $1.36 billion, while passive funds experienced an inflow of $12.32 billion[3] - Domestic capital outflow reached $28.67 billion, contrasted by foreign capital inflow of $10.96 billion[3] Valuation Metrics - The ERP for the Shanghai Composite Index decreased from 63% to 59%, indicating a decline in valuation attractiveness[3] - The S&P 500, Dow Jones, Nasdaq, and Euro Stoxx 600 have ERPs of 2%, 2%, 6%, and 3% respectively, reflecting varying levels of market valuation[3] Economic Indicators - The US July CPI rose by 2.7% year-on-year, slightly below the expected 2.8%, while the PPI year-on-year was reported at 3.3% against an expectation of 2.5%[3] - The probability of a rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September increased to 92.10%, up from 88.90% the previous week[3] Risk Sentiment - The S&P 500 closed at 6449.80, above the 20-day moving average, with an implied volatility trend showing a decline[3] - The options market for the CSI 300 indicates a bullish sentiment, with 55% of its constituent stocks above the 5-day moving average[3]

Group 1: Report General Information - Report Name: Cotton, Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: August 13, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14130, up 150, with a trading volume of 359,282 hands (an increase of 175,100) and an open interest of 455,926 (an increase of 42,969) [3] - CF05 contract closed at 14090, up 180, with a trading volume of 19,441 hands (an increase of 10,428) and an open interest of 38,510 (an increase of 6,918) [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13830, up 95, with a trading volume of 131,743 hands (an increase of 35,958) and an open interest of 179,148 (a decrease of 32,545) [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20165, up 185, with a trading volume of 301 hands (an increase of 95) and an open interest of 385 (an increase of 57) [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20345, up 275, with a trading volume of 13 hands (an increase of 10) and an open interest of 6 (an increase of 1) [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20115, up 120, with a trading volume of 389 hands (a decrease of 117) and an open interest of 1112 (a decrease of 188) [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was priced at 15,188 yuan/ton, up 27 [3] - Cot A was priced at 78.20 cents/pound, up 0.20 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 76.05 cents/pound, up 0.10 [3] - Polyester staple fiber was priced at 7,450 yuan/ton, up 70 [3] - Viscose staple fiber was priced at 12,900 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - CY IndexC32S was priced at 20,620 yuan/ton, down 20 [3] - FCY IndexC33S was priced at 22,149 yuan/ton, up 19 [3] - Indian S - 6 was priced at 54,000 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Pure polyester yarn T32S was priced at 11,030 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose yarn R30S was priced at 17,250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 40, down 30; 5 - 9 spread was 260, up 85; 9 - 1 spread was - 300, down 55 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - month spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 180, down 90; 5 - 9 spread was 230, up 155; 9 - 1 spread was - 50, down 65 [3] - Cross - variety spread: CY01 - CF01 spread was 6035, up 35; CY05 - CF05 spread was 6255, up 95; CY09 - CF09 spread was 6285, up 25 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1413, down 23; sliding - scale tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 714, down 12; domestic - foreign cotton yarn spread was - 22149, down 20639 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In the US cotton main production areas (accounting for 92.9% of the output), the average temperature was 82.14°F, 3.25°F lower than the same period last year, and the average rainfall was 0.72 inches, 0.11 inches higher than the same period last year. In Texas, the average temperature was 86.22°F, 1.17°F lower than the same period last year, and the average rainfall was 0.4 inches, 0.18 inches higher than the same period last year. The cotton growth rate was slightly behind, but the growth quality was good [6] - According to the latest USDA production and sales forecast, in August, the global cotton output was adjusted down by 390,000 tons to 25.39 million tons, the total consumption decreased by 30,000 tons to 25.69 million tons, and the ending inventory decreased by 740,000 tons to 16.09 million tons [6] - The estimated US cotton planting area in August was 9.28 million acres, a decrease of 840,000 acres from the previous month. The abandonment rate increased by 6.26%, and the yield per acre increased by 53 pounds to 862 pounds [6] Trading Logic - Macroeconomically, after the recent China - US talks, the current tariffs are expected to be extended by 90 days with a high probability, and the short - term impact of tariffs may be weakened. China's anti - involution policies have a certain positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the current cotton supply is still tight, and whether the market will issue additional sliding - scale tariff quotas in the future will be the main influencing factor on the supply side. In August, demand will gradually shift from the off - season to the peak season, and demand is expected to improve. If demand fails to meet expectations, it will have a certain negative impact on Zhengzhou cotton. Overall, short - term market bullish factors are relatively clear, and it is expected that the downward space of Zhengzhou cotton is limited, and it will probably maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend [7] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: It is expected that the future trend of US cotton will probably be slightly stronger in oscillation, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to maintain a slightly stronger oscillating trend in the short term, but the upward space is relatively limited [8] - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9] - Options: Sell put options [10] Cotton Yarn Industry News - This week, Zhengzhou cotton rebounded. With the approaching peak season, the pure cotton yarn market has slightly improved, with fewer low - price resources and a slightly higher trading center. However, market operations are still cautious, and downstream fabric mills and traders have not made large - scale replenishment. It is expected that yarn prices will remain stable in the short term [10] - The overall demand for all - cotton grey fabrics has not been significantly released. Only some areas reported a slight improvement in demand compared with July. Fabric mills said they were actively clearing inventories, and the growth rate of grey fabric inventory has decreased. Fabric mills reported an increase in samples, but most real orders have not been placed. Prices are mainly stable, and real - order prices are still negotiated based on quantity. Continuously monitor market dynamics [10] Group 4: Options Option Contract Information - On August 13, 2025, the CF601C14000.CZC option contract had a closing price of 396.00, up 34.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.2% [14] - The CF601P13600.CZC option contract had a closing price of 131.00, down 24.3%, with an implied volatility of 10.3% [14] - The CF601P13400.CZC option contract had a closing price of 82.00, down 31.7%, with an implied volatility of 10.3% [14] Volatility and Strategy - Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.2534, and the volatility slightly increased compared with the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601 - C - 14000 was 10.2%, that of CF601 - P - 13600 was 10.3%, and that of CF601 - P - 13400 was 10.3% [14] - Today, the position PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract was 0.7270, and the trading volume PCR of the main contract was 0.2862. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to sell put options [15][16]

Report Summary 1. Report Information - Report Name: PTA Daily Report - Date: August 13, 2025 - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team of Jianxin Futures [4] 2. Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. 3. Core View - Crude oil is in a narrow - range oscillation. Under low processing fees, PTA still has the expectation of unplanned device overhauls. Downstream rigid demand is stable, and the tariff extension is beneficial to market sentiment. It is expected that PTA will rise slightly [6]. 4. Summary by Section 4.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market Quotes**: TA2509 closed at 4,726 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton, with a total volume of 365,385 and a decrease of 53,690; TA2601 closed at 4,760 yuan/ton, up 28 yuan/ton, with a total volume of 258,839 and an increase of 24,369. On the 12th, the closing price of PTA's main futures TA2505 was 5,048 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.51%, the settlement price was 5,050 yuan/ton, and the daily position increased by 2,383 lots [6]. 4.2 Industry News - **International Oil Prices**: On Monday (August 11), the settlement price of West Texas Light Crude Oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $63.96 per barrel, up $0.08 or 0.13% from the previous trading day. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $66.63 per barrel, up $0.04 or 0.06% from the previous trading day [7]. - **PX Market**: The price of the PX Chinese market was estimated at $835 - 837 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous trading day; the price of the PX South Korean market was estimated at $815 - 817 per ton, up $2 per ton from the previous trading day. There was a single transaction of any October shipment at $834 per ton [7]. - **PTA Market**: The price of the East China PTA market was 4,705 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan/ton. The average daily negotiation basis was based on the futures 2509 at a discount of 13 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [7]. 4.3 Data Overview - The report provides multiple data charts, including international crude oil futures main contract closing prices, upstream raw material spot prices, PX prices, MEG prices, PTA futures price summaries, spot - futures price differences, PTA processing margins, TA5 - 9 spreads, PTA warehouse receipt quantities, polyester factory load rates, PTA downstream product prices, and PTA downstream product inventories. All data sources are from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [11][13][17]

Macro Overview - In the first seven months of 2025, China's total import and export value reached 25.7 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.5% [1] - In July, China's export value was 321.78 billion USD, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.2%, while imports were 223.54 billion USD, growing by 4.1% [2][3] - The trade surplus in July was 98.2 billion USD, down from 114.8 billion USD in the previous month [2] Export and Import Trends - Export growth is supported by global economic resilience and increased export and transshipment activities, with July's global manufacturing PMI at 49.7% [3] - The export growth to the US continued to decline significantly, with a year-on-year decrease of 21.7% in July [4] - Exports to ASEAN and the EU showed stability, with ASEAN exports maintaining a growth rate of 16.6% [4] Company Insights: Xtep International (1368.HK) - Xtep focuses on a diversified brand matrix covering both mass and professional sports markets, positioning itself as a leading running shoe brand in China [1][13] - The company reported a revenue of 13.577 billion yuan in 2024, with an adjusted year-on-year growth of 6.5% and a net profit of 1.238 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 20.23% [13] - Xtep's main brand is experiencing steady growth, supported by increased R&D investment, which has a compound growth rate of 13.96% [13] Company Insights: Zhaozhao Point Glue (873726) - Zhaozhao Point Glue specializes in intelligent dispensing equipment, breaking the foreign monopoly in the high-end dispensing market [21][23] - The company has a comprehensive intellectual property system covering core components, equipment, and application processes, which is expected to optimize its product structure as it deepens customer cooperation [24] - The domestic market has seen a shift towards replacing mid-to-low-end products, with significant potential for high-end product substitution in the future [23] Company Insights: Yingzi Network (688475) - Yingzi Network reported a revenue of 2.827 billion yuan in the first half of 2025, with a year-on-year growth of 9.45% [16][17] - The company’s smart home business is a key growth driver, with smart entry business revenue growing by 32.99% [17] - The company has launched new AI products and expanded its market presence, with a focus on enhancing brand influence and competitiveness [17][19] Summary of Key Metrics - The overall import and export environment is showing signs of pressure, particularly in the context of US-China trade relations and tariff uncertainties [7] - The performance of specific companies like Xtep and Yingzi Network indicates a positive growth trajectory despite broader economic challenges [13][17] - Zhaozhao Point Glue's focus on high-end dispensing technology positions it well for future growth in a competitive market [21][24]