原油最新行情趋势分析： 原油消息面解析：周二国际原油价格小幅走高，因美国与亚洲大国同意延长关税暂停90天，市场担忧贸易担忧情绪的情绪明显缓解。布伦特原油期货平盘， 报每桶66.65美元；美国西德克萨斯中质原油（WTI）期货小幅震荡，至每桶63.89美元。美国方面表示，此次延长关税暂停旨在避免年末假期消费季受到冲 击，同时也为双方进一步谈判提供时间。市场普遍认为，这一举措有望促成协议达成，避免两国经济增长受压，从而支撑全球原油需求。从目前形势看，关 税暂停和俄乌和谈预期同时为油市带来短期利好，但实际效果取决于谈判成果以及美联储政策走向。一旦谈判破裂或通胀数据高于预期，油价可能重新承 压。因此，需密切关注政治与经济信号的同步变化。 原油技术面分析：原油从日线图级别看，K线连续七个交易日收阴线，油价跌破原震荡区间下沿，中期主观趋势向下。均线系统尚未形成空头排列，中期客 观趋势处于转换期。从动能看，MACD指标在逐步下穿零轴位置，空头动能逐步转强。预计原油中期走势将转入下行。原油短线(1H)走势低位震荡向下，油 价在低位反复穿越均线系统，短线客观趋势呈震荡节奏。波动区间在62.80-64.60之间。早盘油价在区间下沿 ...

作者声明 予的期货从业资格证书，期货 投资咨询资格证书，本人承诺 原油：本周二国内原油期货 2510 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，期价最高涨至 495.1 元/桶，最低下跌至 490.4 元/ 桶，收盘时期价略微收涨 0.84%至 494.2 元/桶。由于中美双方再次暂 停实施 24%的关税 90 天。在偏多氛围支撑下，预计后市国内外原油期 货价格或维持震荡企稳的走势。 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 11615 2025 年 8 月 12 日 橡胶甲醇原油 专业研究·创造价值 偏多氛围支撑 能化集体走强 核心观点 宝城期货研究所 姓名：陈栋 橡胶：本周二国内沪胶期货 2601 合约呈现缩量增仓，震荡偏强， 略微收涨的走势，盘中期价重心略微上移至 15860 元/吨一线运行。收 盘时期价略微收涨 0.89%至 15860 元/吨。9-1 月差贴水幅度扩大至 1025 元/吨。受益于国内汽车产销量数据好于预期，重卡销量数据同 比增长。在需求因素驱动下，预计后市国内沪胶期货 2601 合约或维持 震荡偏强的走势。 甲醇：本周 ...

热轧卷板产业链日报 2025/8/12 | 项目类别 | 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 数据指标 | 最新 | 环比 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货市场 | HC 主力合约收盘价(元/吨) | 3,484 | +19↑ HC 主力合约持仓量(手) | 1381560 | +6551↑ | | | HC 合约前20名净持仓(手) | -48,510 | -4583↓ HC10-1合约价差(元/吨) | 6 | +2↑ | | | HC 上期所仓单日报(日，吨) | 79286 | +8925↑ HC2510-RB2510合约价差(元/吨) | 226 | +11↑ | | | 杭州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,530.00 | +20.00↑ 广州 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,490.00 | +10.00↑ | | 现货市场 | 武汉 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,500.00 | +10.00↑ 天津 4.75热轧板卷(元/吨) | 3,460.00 | +20.00↑ | | | HC主力合约基差(元/吨) | 46.00 | ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report Affected by the rise in the grain market and the decline in the good - quality rate of US cotton, US cotton rose slightly. Waiting for the USDA monthly supply - demand report. The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that both sides have suspended the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for another 90 days. Domestically, cotton is in a de - stocking state, and the supply is tight before the new cotton is on the market, with a firm basis. On the demand side, the off - season consumption characteristics of the textile industry are evident. Mainland textile enterprises have no profit, and the overall operating rate continues to decline. Enterprises' procurement of raw materials is mainly for rigid demand. In terms of new crops, China's total cotton planting area increased in 2025. High temperatures in Xinjiang in the next few days require attention to the impact of weather on new crop growth. Overall, although the current tight supply supports cotton prices, weak downstream demand and market expectations for quotas limit the upside space. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see for now [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1. Futures Market - Zhengzhou cotton's main contract closing price was 13,980 yuan/ton, up 300 yuan; cotton yarn's main contract closing price was 20,015 yuan/ton, up 225 yuan. - The net position of the top 20 in cotton futures was - 30,886 hands, a decrease of 6,095 hands; the net position of the top 20 in cotton yarn futures was - 175 hands, a decrease of 272 hands. - The main contract position of cotton was 412,957 hands, an increase of 166,751 hands; the main contract position of cotton yarn was 18,627 hands, an increase of 745 hands. - The cotton warehouse receipt quantity was 8,087 sheets, a decrease of 85 sheets; the cotton yarn warehouse receipt quantity was 74 sheets, a decrease of 1 sheet [2]. 3.2. Spot Market - The China Cotton Price Index (CCIndex:3128B) was 15,177 yuan/ton, up 16 yuan; the China Yarn Price Index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 20,620 yuan/ton, unchanged. - The China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:1% tariff) was 13,402 yuan/ton, up 17 yuan; the China Imported Cotton Price Index (FCIndexM:sliding - scale duty) was 14,226 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan. - The arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton carded yarn 32 - count was 22,149 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan; the arrival price of the imported cotton yarn price index for pure - cotton combed yarn 32 - count was 24,030 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan [2]. 3.3. Upstream Situation - The national cotton sown area was 2,838.3 thousand hectares, an increase of 48.3 thousand hectares; the national cotton output was 6.16 million tons, an increase of 0.54 million tons [2]. 3.4. Industry Situation - The cotton - yarn price difference was 5,443 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16 yuan. - The industrial inventory of cotton nationwide was 850,000 tons, an increase of 24,000 tons. - The monthly import volume of cotton was 30,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons; the monthly import volume of cotton yarn was 110,000 tons, an increase of 10,000 tons. - The profit of imported cotton was 941 yuan/ton, a decrease of 41 yuan. - The commercial inventory of cotton nationwide was 2.8298 million tons, a decrease of 0.6289 million tons [2]. 3.5. Downstream Situation - The yarn inventory days were 23.86 days, an increase of 1.52 days; the inventory days of grey cloth were 35.46 days, an increase of 2.57 days. - The monthly cloth output was 2.779 billion meters, an increase of 0.109 billion meters; the monthly yarn output was 2.065 million tons, an increase of 0.114 million tons. - The monthly export value of clothing and clothing accessories was 1.5266714 billion US dollars, an increase of 0.1688977 billion US dollars; the monthly export value of textile yarns, fabrics and products was 1.2048207 billion US dollars, a decrease of 0.0583566 billion US dollars [2]. 3.6. Option Market - The implied volatility of cotton at - the - money call options was 13.48%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points; the implied volatility of cotton at - the - money put options was 13.48%, an increase of 4.81 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of cotton was 11.24%, an increase of 0.08 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of cotton was 7.79%, an increase of 0.01 percentage points [2]. 3.7. Industry News - The joint statement of the China - US Stockholm economic and trade talks indicates that both sides have suspended the implementation of mutual 24% tariffs for another 90 days. - As of the week ending August 10, 2025, the good - quality rate of US cotton was 53%, down from 55% the previous week and up from 46% in the same period last year. - On Monday, the ICE cotton December contract rose 0.3%. On Tuesday, the cotton 2601 contract rose 0.79%, and the cotton yarn 2511 contract rose 1.52% [2].

Core Viewpoint - The recent joint statement from the US-China Stockholm Economic and Trade Talks indicates a temporary suspension of 24% tariffs on certain goods starting from August 12, 2025, which has positively impacted market sentiment and led to significant gains in Asian markets [7][8]. Market Reactions - The Nikkei 225 index surged over 2%, surpassing the historical closing record set in July 2024, reaching above 42,600 points [4][6]. - The KOSPI index in South Korea also saw a notable increase, rising nearly 1%, with a total gain of over 40% since its low on April 9 [6][12]. - Australian markets reached historical highs, reflecting overall positive market sentiment in response to the tariff news [6]. Tariff Agreement Details - The US will suspend the implementation of a 24% tariff for 90 days starting August 12, 2025, while retaining a 10% tariff on certain goods [7]. - China will similarly suspend the 24% tariff on US goods for 90 days and maintain a 10% tariff, while also taking necessary measures to suspend or cancel non-tariff countermeasures against the US [7]. Impact on Commodities - International oil prices reacted positively, showing significant increases, while natural gas and copper also experienced notable gains [11]. - Gold prices opened lower but showed slight recovery after a significant drop the previous day [11]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The market's reaction to the tariff news may depend on prior expectations; if expectations were already high, the actual news might lead to a market pullback [10]. - Despite previous uncertainties, the A-share market has shown resilience, with financing balances increasing, indicating a degree of confidence among investors [12]. - Analysts suggest that the recent market pullback presents a good opportunity for investment, especially with potential improvements in external conditions and expectations of a shift towards monetary easing by the Federal Reserve [12][13].

Core Viewpoint - UBS analysts indicate that the impact of a potential further suspension of tariffs on the US dollar remains uncertain, with a 90-day tariff suspension ending on July 9 [1] Group 1 - A further suspension of tariffs may be interpreted as a reluctance to implement tariffs, potentially boosting risk-sensitive currencies [1] - If high tariffs are avoided, the US dollar could receive some initial support [1] - However, a reduction in tariffs might lead the market to price in expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] Group 2 - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell recently stated that if tariffs had not boosted inflation expectations, he would have already cut interest rates [1]

Group 1 - The Thai Finance Minister anticipates that trade negotiations with the United States will be extended following a 90-day suspension of tariffs [1]

Group 1 - Emerging market stocks have unexpectedly become a significant source of returns for U.S. traders during the volatility of the S&P 500 index caused by President Trump's trade war [1] - The Cboe volatility index (VIX) has been higher than the Cboe emerging markets ETF volatility index for 48 out of the past 54 trading days, indicating increased investor interest in emerging markets to mitigate risks [1] - The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) has risen by 14% year-to-date, marking the largest excess return relative to the S&P 500 since 2009 [1] Group 2 - Speculators are preparing for potential increased volatility in emerging markets as the 90-day "tariff pause" initiated by the Trump administration is set to expire [4] - The number of put options open contracts relative to call options for the emerging markets ETF is nearing its highest level since December of the previous year [4] - Market strategist Matt Maley anticipates a short-term pullback in emerging market stocks relative to the S&P 500 index [4] Group 3 - Positive developments in trade negotiations could boost the S&P 500 index, as significant progress has been reported in talks with China [7] - Investors are pricing in two rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year, hoping that Trump's tax cuts will drive corporate earnings and domestic economic growth [7] - The current upward momentum in the U.S. stock market may diminish the relative advantage of emerging markets, with the S&P 500 nearing historical highs [7] Group 4 - A weaker dollar may continue to benefit emerging markets, as their stock valuations remain cheaper compared to U.S. stocks [7] - Matt Maley suggests that emerging market stocks may be available at more attractive prices in late June [7] - The uncertainty surrounding tariffs has become a stabilizing force for emerging market assets, with varying outcomes expected from trade negotiations across the 24 countries covered by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index [7]

Core Viewpoint - The President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, stated that a pleasant conversation took place with Trump, emphasizing the need for the EU to reach a favorable agreement before July 9, when Trump's "tariff suspension" expires, indicating that Europe is prepared to advance negotiations swiftly and decisively [1] Group 1 - The EU is under pressure to finalize a deal before the deadline set by Trump's tariff suspension [1] - Ursula von der Leyen expressed readiness for rapid and decisive negotiation efforts [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Secretary of Commerce, Gina Raimondo, expressed the intention to reach trade agreements with "most" major partners before the expiration of tariff suspensions this summer [1] Group 1 - The U.S. aims to negotiate trade agreements with key partners to address tariff issues [1] - The focus is on achieving these agreements prior to the summer deadline for tariff suspensions [1]