图片来源：网络 白银有望被列入"关键矿产清单"的前景，无疑引发了一些市场人士的担忧——因白银的新地位可能引起美国总统特朗普的注意。事实上，特朗普早在今 年四月就下令调查关键矿产资源。受此影响，当时纽约期货价格的涨幅远超越国际基准价（伦敦现货白银），因交易商将关税风险计入定价，而持仓者 争相将白银运往美国以获取溢价。 在本月初时隔14年强势重返40美元上方后，国际现货白银价格近来的升势可以说正一发不可收。而在银价大涨的表象背后，白银市场还有一个特殊的现 象也正引发了市场人士的高度关注：白银租赁利率再度飙升…… 有业内人士表示，伦敦市场上白银租赁利率的飙升，可能再次颠覆贵金属市场的格局，交易员担忧美国可能加征关税将挤压伦敦本已紧张的供应。同 时，全球主要金银交易枢纽间的价格错位现象，正再度显现。 这一切的源头似乎来自上月下旬的一份报告。智通财经曾报道过，美国内政部下属机构地质调查局8月25日在《联邦公报》上公布了这份合计54种矿产的 清单草案，并将在30天内公开征求公众意见。最新被提议加入清单的有六种矿产，包括铜、钾碱、硅、白银、铅和铼。 "美国市场的担忧在于该金属可能面临关税，"法国外贸银行分析师Bernard ...

Group 1 - Silver prices have surpassed $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1] - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, driven primarily by market expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [3] - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets like silver [3] Group 2 - The silver market is experiencing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies [6] - There has been a significant influx of funds into silver ETFs, marking the longest continuous inflow period since 2020 [6] - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list is seen as a potential precursor to high import tariffs, adding upward pressure on silver prices [7][9] Group 3 - The potential for high import tariffs on silver, possibly up to 50%, is being underestimated by the market, given the U.S. reliance on silver imports [9] - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver prices, projecting them to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months [9]

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by various factors including monetary policy expectations and geopolitical tensions [1][5]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 1, silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark, reaching $40.44 per ounce, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, such as gold, which also reached new highs since April [2]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the growing market expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding assets like silver [5]. - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets [5]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies, such as solar panels [6]. - There has been a continuous inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the longest streak of inflows since 2020 [6]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list is seen as a potential precursor to imposing high import tariffs, which could further boost silver prices [8][9]. - Analysts note that the U.S. relies heavily on silver imports, with a dependency rate of 64%, and the potential for tariffs has not been fully priced into the market [9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver, projecting prices to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, and recommends investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [10].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, reflecting a year-to-date increase of over 40% [2][5]. Group 1: Market Dynamics - On September 1, silver prices reached $40.44 per ounce, marking a nearly 2% daily increase [2]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, including gold, which also hit new highs since April [5]. - The primary driver of this surge is the market's growing expectation that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates in its upcoming policy meeting, which typically benefits non-yielding precious metals [8]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by increasing demand for clean energy technologies such as solar panels [10]. - Strong fundamentals have attracted significant investment, with silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) seeing continuous inflows for seven consecutive months, the longest streak since 2020 [11]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list has added momentum to the price increase, as it signals potential government actions to reduce import reliance and boost domestic production [13][14]. - Market analysts suggest that this policy could lead to the imposition of high import tariffs, potentially up to 50%, due to the U.S.'s high dependency on silver imports, which stands at 64% [15][16]. - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook, projecting silver prices could reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, recommending investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [17].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by various factors including monetary policy expectations and geopolitical tensions [2][3][8]. Group 1: Price Movement - On September 1, silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase exceeding 40% [3]. - The current spot price of silver is reported at $40.44 per ounce, reflecting a nearly 2% increase [3]. - This upward trend in silver prices aligns with the performance of other precious metals, such as gold, which also reached new highs [5]. Group 2: Market Drivers - The primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals is the market's increasing bets on the Federal Reserve lowering interest rates in the upcoming policy meeting [8]. - Lower borrowing costs typically favor non-yielding precious metal assets, enhancing their appeal [8]. - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have also boosted investor demand for safe-haven assets [8]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The silver market is facing a supply shortage for the fifth consecutive year, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies like solar panels [9]. - Significant inflows into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have been observed, marking the longest continuous inflow period since 2020 [9]. Group 4: Policy Implications - Recent policy proposals from the U.S. Department of the Interior to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list could further support silver prices [12]. - This proposal aims to reduce U.S. dependence on imports and expand domestic production [13]. - The potential for high import tariffs, possibly up to 50%, on silver due to its inclusion in the critical minerals list has been highlighted as a significant market catalyst [13]. Group 5: Future Outlook - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver, projecting prices to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months, and recommends investors hold long positions in COMEX silver [14].

Core Viewpoint - The silver market is experiencing a significant surge, with prices surpassing $40 per ounce for the first time since 2011, driven by expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve and strong demand fundamentals [1][4]. Group 1: Price Movement and Market Dynamics - On September 1, silver prices broke the $40 per ounce mark, with a year-to-date increase of over 40% [1]. - Current spot silver is reported at $40.33 per ounce, reflecting a daily increase of over 1.6% [1]. - The rise in silver prices is in line with other precious metals, including gold, which also reached new highs [1]. Group 2: Economic and Geopolitical Influences - Market speculation regarding the Federal Reserve's potential interest rate cuts is a primary driver of the recent surge in precious metals [1]. - Geopolitical tensions and an uncertain financial environment have increased investor demand for safe-haven assets [1]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Fundamentals - The silver market is heading towards its fifth consecutive year of supply shortages, driven by rising demand for clean energy technologies like solar panels [4]. - There has been a continuous inflow of funds into silver exchange-traded funds (ETFs), marking the longest streak of inflows since 2020 [4]. Group 4: Policy Implications - The U.S. Geological Survey's proposal to include silver in the 2025 critical minerals list could lead to significant policy changes, including potential high import tariffs [5][6]. - The proposal aims to reduce U.S. dependence on imports and expand domestic production [5]. Group 5: Tariff Risks and Market Reactions - Analysts suggest that the inclusion of silver in the critical minerals list may set the stage for the U.S. to impose tariffs under Section 232, potentially reaching rates as high as 50% [6]. - The U.S. currently relies on imports for 64% of its silver needs, indicating that tariff risks may be underestimated by the market [6]. - Citigroup maintains a bullish outlook for silver prices, projecting them to reach $43 per ounce within the next 6-12 months [6].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of copper is rising due to the weakening US dollar [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - **Futures Prices**: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,410 with a daily increase of 0.61%, and the night - session closing price was 79,680 with a night - session increase of 0.34%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk closed at 9,906 with a daily increase of 0.68% [1] - **Trading Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 71,061, a decrease of 2,342 from the previous day, and the open interest was 173,826, an increase of 4,829. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 23,251, an increase of 8,980, and the open interest was 268,000, an increase of 474 [1] - **Futures Inventory**: The Shanghai copper inventory was 21,412, an increase of 180. The LME copper inventory was 158,900, an increase of 950, and the注销仓单比 was 8.21%, a decrease of 0.08% [1] - **Spreads**: Various spreads such as LME copper basis, spot - to - futures spreads, and inter - month spreads showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the LME copper basis increased by 2.53 to - 80.26 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - **Macro News**: The US core PCE price index in July rebounded to 2.9% year - on - year, in line with expectations, and the tariff impact was still controllable. The China Securities Regulatory Commission plans to consolidate the stable and positive momentum of the capital market and promote a new round of capital market reform and opening up [1] - **Industry News**: The US government proposed to include copper, silicon, silver, etc. in the list of critical minerals. Freeport's Indonesian branch will complete the maintenance of the Gresik factory in early September. Hudbay Minerals resumed operations at its Snow Lake mine in Manitoba. The drainage of the eastern section of the Kamoa - Kakula copper mine in Africa will enable it to resume production capacity early next year [1][3] 3.3 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 1, indicating a moderately positive outlook on copper prices [3]

Report Overview - The report is the "Guotai Junan Futures Commodity Research Morning Report - Precious Metals and Base Metals" dated August 29, 2025, covering precious metals and base metals such as gold, silver, copper, zinc, etc. [1] Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the report Core Viewpoints - Gold is affected by JH meeting with Powell dovish remarks; silver is reaching the previous high; copper prices rise as the dollar falls; zinc shows a weak oscillation; lead prices are supported by inventory reduction; tin and aluminum are in range - bound oscillations; alumina has an obvious supply surplus; nickel runs in a narrow - range oscillation; stainless steel oscillates at a low level in the short - term [2] By Metals Precious Metals Gold - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Gold 2510 was 783.22 with a daily increase of 0.26%, and the night - session closing price was 785.02 with a 0.29% increase. Comex Gold 2510 had a 0.73% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, ETF holdings, inventory, and price spreads are provided [5] Silver - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Silver 2510 was 9377 with a 0.77% increase, and the night - session closing price was 9405.00 with a 0.90% increase. Comex Silver 2510 had a 1.31% increase. The trend strength is 1 [5][9] - **Fundamentals**: Similar data to gold including trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are presented [5] Base Metals Copper - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Copper's main contract was 78,930 with a - 0.33% decrease, and the night - session closing price was 78990 with a 0.08% increase. LME Copper 3M had a 0.68% increase. The trend strength is 1 [11][13] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads is provided. Codelco lowered its copper output target for this year [11][13] Zinc - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Zinc's main contract was 22170 with a - 0.63% decrease, and LME Zinc 3M had a - 1.53% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [14][15] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory are given. The US second - quarter GDP data was revised upwards [14][15] Lead - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Lead's main contract was 16910 with a 0.12% increase, and LME Lead 3M had a - 0.08% decrease. The trend strength is 0 [17][18] - **Fundamentals**: Information on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, and inventory shows a reduction in inventory [17][18] Tin - **Price Trends**: The previous closing price of Shanghai Tin's main contract was 272,680 with a 0.33% increase, and LME Tin 3M had a 0.91% increase. The trend strength is 1 [20][23] - **Fundamentals**: Data on trading volume, open interest, inventory, and price spreads are provided [20][23] Aluminum, Alumina, and Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Aluminum's main contract closed at 20750, LME Aluminum 3M at 2607. Shanghai Alumina's main contract closed at 3013, and the casting aluminum alloy's main contract closed at 20350. Trend strengths are 0 for aluminum, - 1 for alumina, and 0 for casting aluminum alloy [24][25] - **Fundamentals**: Comprehensive data on trading volume, open interest, price spreads, inventory, and industry costs and profits are presented [24][25] Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price Trends**: Shanghai Nickel's main contract closed at 120,990, and stainless steel's main contract closed at 12,850. The trend strengths are both 0 [26][31] - **Fundamentals**: Information on prices, spreads, and industry news such as production suspension in some Indonesian nickel - iron smelters is provided [26][31]

Group 1 - The US Geological Survey (USGS) has proposed adding silver and five other minerals to the critical minerals list for 2025, pending review under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act, which allows tariffs on goods deemed essential for national security [1] - The six minerals proposed for inclusion are copper, potash, silicon, silver, lead, and rhenium, while arsenic and tellurium may be removed from the list [1] - Citigroup analysts noted that if silver is included in the critical minerals list, it could face a potential Section 232 tariff investigation, with import tariffs possibly reaching up to 50% [1] Group 2 - Amplify ETFs' product development VP Nate Miller indicated that the surge in investment demand for silver has significantly boosted the silver market [2] - Miller highlighted two key factors driving strong support for silver this year: its dual role as both an industrial and monetary metal [2] - The current silver price is reported at $38.83 per ounce, with a potential upward target of $50 to $52 per ounce if the gold-silver ratio normalizes [2]

Group 1 - The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has proposed a new critical minerals list, adding copper and six other minerals while removing arsenic and tellurium, marking a significant revision since 2018 [1][2] - The proposed list will enter a 30-day public comment period before the final list is published, and minerals on this list will receive government funding and expedited approval for exploration and mining projects [1][2] - The mining sector contributed over $4 trillion to the U.S. economy last year, highlighting the importance of minerals in the supply chain [2] Group 2 - Copper's inclusion in the critical minerals list is due to supply chain disruption risks, with U.S. copper production declining by 20% over the past decade and a projected 11% drop in 2023 [2] - The U.S. relies on imports for approximately 45% of its copper consumption, with major sources being Chile, Canada, Peru, and Mexico [2] - The lengthy permitting process for new mining projects in the U.S. averages 29 years, with 7 to 10 years just for obtaining necessary permits, contributing to the decline in domestic copper production [2] Group 3 - The U.S. currently imposes a 50% tariff on copper-containing products but exempts refined copper, indicating a strategy to boost domestic production while still relying on imports [2] - Experts suggest that the U.S. lacks the capacity to produce all the copper it needs, and while new mining investments are underway, they will take years to come online, maintaining reliance on imports in the short term [2] - Tariffs may increase costs for U.S. importers and consumers, potentially exerting downward pressure on economic growth [2]