1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints Corn - Corn futures' main contract 2605 saw short - sellers reducing positions during price decline, providing short - term support. Northeast and North China corn prices were weak over the weekend, with increased supply. Southern market prices rose, but wheat auctions and substitution reduced corn demand. The futures' main contract faces upward pressure, and short - selling is recommended [1]. Soybean and Soybean Meal - CBOT soybeans were almost flat on Monday, adjusting positions ahead of reports. US soybean acreage is expected to increase to 85.549 million acres, and inventory to 2.063 billion bushels, both negative factors. Domestic protein meal trended higher with a near - weak and far - strong pattern. Pig prices fell, reducing soybean meal consumption, and short - term trading is advised [1]. Palm Oil and Other Oils - BMD palm oil rose due to Indonesia's B50 plan and rising crude oil. High - frequency data showed a 38.4% - 50.6% increase in Malaysian palm oil exports from March 1 - 25. Domestic oil markets followed suit, with palm oil stronger than soybean and rapeseed oil. Short - term long - positions are recommended [1]. Eggs - The main egg futures contract 2605回调 after reaching the upper limit of the shock range, with a daily decline of 1.4%. Spot prices fell slightly. Supply pressure remains, but cost support raises the bottom of futures prices. Short - term trading is recommended, and attention should be paid to inventory data and surrounding commodity prices [2]. Pigs - The main pig futures contract 2605 oscillated at a low level, rising 0.4% daily. Spot prices rose slightly. Supply pressure persists, and prices are likely to remain weak. Attention should be paid to feed costs and surrounding commodity prices [2]. 3. Summary by Directory Market Information - Military actions against Iran will continue for at least three more weeks, and the US may send more warships to the Middle East. China's M2 balance at the end of February was 349.22 trillion yuan, up 9% year - on - year. China will strengthen market supervision. Iron ore inventories at 45 ports increased, and the price increase lacks fundamental support. The US allows the purchase of Russian oil, and China will release fertilizer reserves. Fertilizer and energy prices have risen due to the conflict, and Iraq plans to resume oil exports [3][4]. Variety Spreads - The report presents contract spreads and basis for various agricultural products such as corn, soybean, palm oil, eggs, and pigs, but specific spreads and basis values are not described in detail [5][8][10][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [3][7][9] 2. Core Views of the Report - **Cotton**: The global cotton supply-demand pattern is expected to tighten in the 26/27 season, with the northern hemisphere entering the key planting period. In China, there is a significant increase in consumption due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, and the inventory at the end of the year may still be tight. The medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to continue to move up, but the short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy factors [2] - **Sugar**: The international raw sugar remains strong, and the domestic sugar is in a stage of inventory accumulation with higher - than - expected production increase. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below due to the Middle East situation [6][7] - **Pulp**: The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the demand in China is expected to improve compared to last year. However, the port inventory in China remains high, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 15,385 yuan/ton yesterday, down 10 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.06%. - Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,656 yuan/ton, up 3 yuan/ton from the previous day; the national average price was 16,823 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton from the previous day. - US cotton inspection: From March 20th to 26th, 2025/26, the US graded and inspected 0.37 million tons of cotton, with 82.2% meeting the ICE cotton futures delivery requirements. As of the same period, the cumulative graded inspection was 3.0544 million tons, with 81.7% meeting the requirements [1] Market Analysis - International: The Middle East conflict causes large fluctuations in oil prices, and the macro - level impact on cotton prices needs to be monitored. The global supply - demand pattern in the 26/27 season is expected to tighten. - Domestic: In the 25/26 season, China's cotton production increased significantly, but the consumption increase due to downstream spindle capacity expansion is obvious. The "Golden March and Silver April" peak season in the textile market has good expectations, and the commercial inventory is being depleted quickly. The domestic new crop is expected to reduce production, and the medium - and long - term cotton price center is expected to move up [2] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The short - term upside is limited by internal - external price differences and policy - issued quotas. Focus on the new - year target price policy, the reduction range of planting area, and possible reserve - releasing policies [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,441 yuan/ton yesterday, down 23 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.42%. - Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,460 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,325 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. - Brazil's sugar production: In the first half of March, the sugarcane crushing volume in the central - southern region of Brazil was 1.309 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 552,000 tons; the sugar production was 0.6 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 4.7 million tons. From the 2025/26 season to the first half of March, the cumulative sugar production was 40.25 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 282,000 tons [4][5] Market Analysis - International: The raw sugar remains in a strong pattern. Due to the ongoing geopolitical conflict, the new - season sugar - making ratio in Brazil may further decrease, and the short - term external market is greatly affected by the international situation. - Domestic: The sugarcane harvesting progress is significantly delayed, the production increase is higher than expected, and sugar is still in the inventory accumulation stage with high industrial inventory. The domestic sugar import volume from January to February also increased significantly year - on - year [6] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. Under the pressure of oversupply, the continuous upward momentum of Zhengzhou sugar weakens, but it has strong support below. Treat it with an oscillatory mindset in the short term [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,182 yuan/ton yesterday, down 20 yuan/ton from the previous day, a decrease of 0.38%. - Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,190 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,835 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton from the previous day [7] Market Analysis - Supply: In the past two years, the overseas new production capacity has been limited, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills have announced production cuts and conversion plans. The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026. - Demand: In the past two years, a large amount of finished paper production capacity has been put into operation in China, but the terminal effective demand is insufficient. The raw material procurement of downstream paper mills is cautious. The port inventory in China remains at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and the demand for pulp raw materials is expected to increase marginally [9] Strategy - Adopt a neutral strategy. The pulp fundamentals remain weak, the port inventory is difficult to reduce, and the short - term pulp price may be mainly in low - level consolidation [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - **General**: The report analyzes multiple futures varieties, including soybean meal, rapeseed meal, palm oil, soybean oil, rapeseed oil, cotton, jujube, and live pigs, and provides corresponding investment suggestions based on their market conditions and influencing factors [1] - **Soybean Meal**: Be vigilant against the risk of weakening, with concerns about cost - pulling from the crude oil end and short - term import worries of Brazilian soybeans. Pay attention to the development of various factors in the future, as well as the US soybean planting area at the end of the month and the final content of US biodiesel [1][3][5] - **Rapeseed Meal**: Follow the trend of soybean meal. Downstream feed enterprises' purchasing rhythm has slowed down, and the national rapeseed meal inventory has increased. Focus on the inventory accumulation, crude oil trend, and soybean meal guidance [1][6][8] - **Palm Oil**: Short - term volatility intensifies. Although the export data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 15 days of this month is good, beware of the risk of weakening fundamentals. Pay attention to the export situation in the first 20 days of this month, crude oil trend, and Indonesia's B50 policy [1][9][11] - **Soybean Oil**: Short - term volatility intensifies. Treat it as a short - term bullish and volatile market, but be cautious about chasing long positions due to the lack of continuous bullish drivers. Pay attention to the latest export and production data of Malaysian palm oil in the first 20 days of this month, as well as the US soybean area at the end of the month and the content of US biodiesel [1] - **Rapeseed Oil**: Short - term volatility intensifies. Low inventory and low import of rapeseed support the near - month rapeseed oil price to some extent. Be cautious about chasing long positions due to the potential weakening of crude oil. Pay attention to the boost from the palm oil end and the inventory accumulation after the arrival of Canadian rapeseed [1] - **Cotton**: It is in a state of shock adjustment. The US cotton is expected to be strong in the short - term, while the domestic cotton has support at the bottom but faces adjustment pressure in the short - term. Pay attention to the support level of the previous low and the appropriate long - allocation opportunity after the macro - influence stabilizes [1][12][15] - **Jujube**: It is under pressure. Although the trading sentiment in the Zhengzhou jujube market is strengthened by external factors, the de - stocking progress is slow, and the rising temperature will further suppress jujube consumption. Be vigilant against the valuation retracement [1][16][17] - **Live Pigs**: It shows a weak shock. The supply is high, and the demand is in the off - season. The short - term disk is under pressure. Pay attention to the change of short - term second - fattening sentiment and the de - stocking strength of group farms. The near - month contract is expected to be under pressure, while the far - month 01 contract may have bottom - hunting opportunities [1][18][20] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Soybean Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of soybean meal (main contract daily closing) is 3042 yuan/ton, up 6 yuan or 0.20% from the previous day. The national average spot price is 3424.57 yuan/ton, up 10.86 yuan or 0.32%. The soybean crushing profit has improved, and the basis of different contracts has increased [3] - **Industry News**: Last week (March 8 - 14), Brazil exported 3.011 million tons of soybeans, 377,388 tons of soybean meal, and 235,161 tons of corn. This week (March 15 - 21), it plans to export 4.325555 million tons of soybeans, 729,810 tons of soybean meal, and 180,852 tons of corn. As of March 11, the cumulative sales of Argentine soybeans in the 25/26 and 24/25 seasons reached 51.7944 million tons [4] Rapeseed Meal - **Market Data**: The futures price of rapeseed meal (main contract daily closing) is 2443 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The national average spot price is 2703.16 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan or 0.75%. The rapeseed crushing profit has improved, and the basis of different contracts has changed [6] - **Industry News**: As of March 15, the EU's rapeseed imports in the 2025/26 season were 3.19 million tons, compared with 4.77 million tons last year. As of March 18, the national rapeseed meal inventory increased by 0.74 million tons compared with last week [8] Palm Oil - **Market Data**: The futures price of palm oil (main contract daily closing) is 9796 yuan/ton, up 104 yuan or 1.07% from the previous day. The national average price is 9748 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan or 0.31%. The import cost has increased slightly, and the inventory has increased [9] - **Industry News**: The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects the palm oil price to remain above 4450 ringgit per ton in the near - term. From March 1 - 15, 2026, the production of Malaysian palm oil decreased compared with the same period last month. Saudi Arabia has achieved more than half of its exports through pipeline transportation, indicating a缓和 in the crude oil supply problem [11] Cotton - **Market Data**: The futures prices of different cotton contracts have declined slightly. The spot price of domestic cotton has decreased, and the basis of different contracts has decreased. The spinning profit of textile enterprises has increased, and the operating rates of mainstream spinning enterprises and weaving factories have increased. The inventory of national and Xinjiang cotton has decreased [12] - **Industry News**: In the USDA's March supply - demand balance sheet, the global cotton production increased, consumption decreased, and the inventory - to - consumption ratio increased. In China, the production and consumption increased, and the monthly inventory - to - consumption ratio decreased. The 300,000 - ton additional trade quota has been implemented, and the import of cotton and cotton yarn in January - February has increased [13][14] Jujube - **Market Data**: The futures prices of different jujube contracts have increased slightly. The spot prices of different grades of jujubes are stable. The inventory of 36 sample enterprises has decreased slightly [16] - **Industry News**: The downstream jujube market has little trading, and the overall spot price is stable. The market has entered the off - season, and the consumption demand is expected to weaken seasonally [17] Live Pigs - **Market Data**: The futures prices of different live pig contracts have declined. The national average slaughter price has decreased, and the basis of different contracts has changed. The inventory of sample enterprises has increased, and the slaughter volume has decreased. The operating rate of key slaughter enterprises has increased slightly, and the fresh - sales rate has decreased. The pork sales volume has decreased, and the slaughter and breeding profits are in a loss state [18] - **Industry News**: As of March 10, the overall completion rate of the planned slaughter of key provincial pig - raising enterprises is 33.00%. The second - fattening sentiment is not concentrated, and the number of piglets born in February has increased. The inventory of breeding sows has decreased slightly, and the demand is in the off - season [19]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three sectors (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated neutral [3][6][9] Core Views - Cotton: The USDA's outlook for the 2026/27 cotton season indicates a tightening supply - demand pattern globally. In China, the textile market is gradually recovering, and in the long - term, the cotton price center may rise due to factors like reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] - Sugar: The 2025/26 global sugar market is in an oversupply situation, with short - to - medium - term downward pressure on raw sugar prices. In China, sugar production is expected to increase, but import policy may support the market [4] - Pulp: Global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, while domestic demand is expected to improve slightly. However, high port inventories keep the pulp market weak [8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,250 yuan/ton, up 45 yuan/ton (+0.30%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,396 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,583 yuan/ton, up 12 yuan/ton [1] - From February 20 - 26, the net signing of 2025/26 US upland cotton decreased by 41% week - on - week and 50% compared to the four - week average. Shipments increased by 46% week - on - week and 43% compared to the four - week average [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the 2026/27 global cotton supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten. Domestically, the textile market is recovering, and in the long - term, the cotton price center may rise due to reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. In the short - term, the cotton price may be affected by the internal - external price difference. Focus on the reduction of new - year planting area and target price subsidy policies [3] Sugar Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5330 yuan/ton, up 22 yuan/ton (+0.41%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5350 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; in Kunming, Yunnan it was 5225 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [4] - As of March 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season in India's Maharashtra state, 113 sugar mills had stopped crushing, with 97 still operating (102 less than the previous year). Cumulative cane crushing was 100.51 million tons, up 18.179 million tons from the previous year; sugar production was 9.5031 million tons, up about 1.7805 million tons [4] Market Analysis - Raw sugar prices are under short - to - medium - term pressure due to global oversupply, but there are potential long - term supply - side benefits. In China, sugar production is expected to increase, and import policy may support the market [4] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. Although the fundamental factors are bearish, the sugar price's downward space is limited. Focus on domestic import policy changes [6] Pulp Market News and Key Data - Futures: The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5250 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan/ton (+0.08%) from the previous day. Spot: The price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5300 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4910 yuan/ton, unchanged [7] - The price of imported wood pulp in the spot market fluctuated slightly, with limited trading volume [7] Market Analysis - Global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and domestic demand is expected to improve slightly, but port inventories remain high [8] Strategy - Maintain a neutral stance. The pulp market remains weak, and the price may consolidate at a low level in the short - term [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment ratings for cotton, sugar, and pulp are all neutral [3][7][9] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For cotton, the global cotton market supply - demand pattern is expected to tighten in the new season. In the domestic market, the textile market is expected to resume trading, and the cotton price center may move up in the medium - long term, but the short - term rise may be restricted by internal - external price differences [2][3] - For sugar, the short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus pattern will continue to suppress the raw sugar futures price. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and the import policy may support the market [5] - For pulp, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and the demand is expected to improve compared with last year, but the port inventory remains high, and the short - term pulp price may be in low - level consolidation [8][9] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of cotton 2605 contract was 15350 yuan/ton, a change of - 30 yuan/ton (- 0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang factory price of 3128B cotton was 16548 yuan/ton, a change of + 759 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16681 yuan/ton, a change of + 611 yuan/ton. As of February 15, the national commercial cotton inventory was 550.37 million tons, a decrease of 28.5 million tons (4.92%) from the end of January, and 17.74 million tons (3.12%) lower than the same period last year. The textile enterprise's in - stock industrial cotton inventory was 102.92 million tons, an increase of 7.56 million tons year - on - year and 2.82 million tons month - on - month. The disposable cotton inventory was 121.78 million tons, a decrease of 6.89 million tons year - on - year and an increase of 3.33 million tons month - on - month. The yarn inventory of textile enterprises was 21.32 days, a decrease of 0.86 days year - on - year and 0.39 days month - on - month [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the USDA outlook forum shows that in the 2026/27 season, the global cotton production will be 25.26 million tons, a decrease of 3.2% year - on - year; the consumption will be 26.15 million tons, an increase of 1.2% year - on - year; the ending inventory will be 15.5 million tons, a decrease of 5.2% year - on - year. Domestically, the textile market is expected to resume work, and the cotton consumption is expected to increase. The supply - demand is expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year. The planting area of Xinjiang cotton will be structurally compressed in the 2026/27 season [2] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. In the short term, the post - holiday Zheng cotton may be volatile and strong, but the short - term rise may be restricted by internal - external price differences [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of sugar 2605 contract was 5285 yuan/ton, a change of + 37 yuan/ton (+ 0.71%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5330 yuan/ton, with no change; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5170 yuan/ton, with no change. The ISMA estimates that the total sugar production (before ethanol diversion) in the 2025/26 season will be 32.409 million tons, the ethanol diversion will be 3.1 million tons, and the net sugar production (after ethanol diversion) will be 29.292 million tons, an increase of 12% year - on - year [4] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus pattern will continue to suppress the raw sugar futures price. The long - term supply side has potential positive factors. In the domestic market, the sugar production is expected to increase, and the import policy may support the market [5] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of domestic sugar production and the change of import sugar policy [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of pulp 2605 contract was 5312 yuan/ton, a change of - 36 yuan/ton (- 0.67%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5340 yuan/ton, a change of - 35 yuan/ton; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4950 yuan/ton, a change of - 15 yuan/ton. The import wood pulp spot market price changed differently, with some pulp prices weakening and most being stable [7] Market Analysis - In terms of supply, the overseas new production capacity is less in the past two years, and the supply pressure of global wood pulp is expected to weaken in 2026. In terms of demand, the terminal demand was insufficient in 2025, and the port inventory was high. In 2026, the demand is expected to improve [8] Strategy - The strategy is neutral. The improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price may be in low - level consolidation [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for cotton, sugar, and pulp is neutral [3][7][9] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - For cotton, the USDA's outlook for the 2026/27 season indicates a tightening supply - demand pattern globally, with reduced production, increased consumption, and lower ending stocks. In China, the textile market is expected to resume trading, and long - term cotton prices may rise due to reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] - For sugar, the short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus will suppress prices, but long - term supply has potential positive factors. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and import policy changes may support the market [5] - For pulp, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease in 2026, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year, but the high port inventory may keep prices in a low - level consolidation [8] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract was 15,380 yuan/ton, up 95 yuan/ton (+0.62%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 16,037 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 657; the national average price was 16,329 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of CF05 + 949. From February 13 to 19, the US graded and inspected 16,100 tons of cotton for the 2025/26 season, with 77.2% meeting ICE delivery requirements [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the 2026/27 global cotton production is expected to be 25.26 million tons (down 3.2% year - on - year), consumption 26.15 million tons (up 1.2% year - on - year), and ending stocks 15.5 million tons (down 5.2% year - on - year). Domestically, the textile market is expected to resume trading, and long - term cotton prices may rise due to reduced planting area in Xinjiang [2] Strategy - The short - term trend of Zhengzhou cotton may be volatile and slightly stronger, but the short - term uptrend may be suppressed by the internal - external price difference [3] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract was 5,248 yuan/ton, up 19 yuan/ton (+0.36%) from the previous day. The spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,330 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 + 82; the spot price in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,170 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SR05 - 78. The NFCSF in India called for an increase of 600 million liters in the B - heavy molasses ethanol quota [4] Market Analysis - The short - to - medium - term global sugar surplus will suppress the raw sugar price, but long - term supply has potential positive factors. The domestic sugar production is expected to increase, and import policy changes may support the market [5] Strategy - After the holiday, attention should be paid to the selling pressure of increased domestic sugar production, and the price may bottom out again. Import sugar policy changes also need attention [7] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract was 5,348 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan/ton (+0.15%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 + 27; the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,965 yuan/ton, with a spot basis of SP05 - 383. The import wood pulp spot market prices were strong but with sparse transactions [7] Market Analysis - In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is expected to improve compared to last year, but the high port inventory remains a problem [8] Strategy - The pulp price may remain in a low - level consolidation in the short term due to limited improvement in fundamentals and high port inventory [9]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for both the soybean meal and corn sectors is neutral [2][6] 2. Core Viewpoints - For soybean meal, the good weather in Brazil and the expected record - high soybean production will put pressure on US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices. With feed enterprises' procurement basically completed, oil mills' soybean meal and soybean inventories are high, so the soybean meal price will fluctuate. Future focus should be on US soybean procurement and Brazil's harvest [1][2] - For corn, last season's low corn imports led to significant depletion of channel inventories. Although there was a good harvest in Northeast China this season, affected by floods in North China and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply is not loose. The corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot trading, imports, and grain auctions [3][5] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market News and Important Data 3.1.1 Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal - Futures: The closing price of the soybean meal 2605 contract was 2773 yuan/ton, up 39 yuan/ton or 1.43% from the previous day; the rapeseed meal 2605 contract was 2288 yuan/ton, up 44 yuan/ton or 1.96% [1] - Spot: In Tianjin, the soybean meal spot price was 3150 yuan/ton, up 20 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it was 3060 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it was 3040 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The rapeseed meal spot price in Fujian was 2410 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton [1] - Market Information: Brazil's February soybean exports are expected to be 11.71 million tons, and soybean meal exports are expected to be 1.93 million tons. The US Department of Agriculture estimated Brazil's 2025/26 soybean production at 180 million tons and exports at 114 million tons [1] 3.1.2 Corn and Corn Starch - Futures: The closing price of the corn 2603 contract was 2316 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton or 1.31%; the corn starch 2603 contract was 2571 yuan/ton, up 24 yuan/ton or 0.94% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the corn spot price was 2150 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Jilin, the corn starch spot price was 2630 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Market Information: The US Department of Agriculture estimated the US 2025/26 corn planting area at 98.8 million acres, harvest area at 91.3 million acres, yield per acre at 186.5 bushels, production at 17.021 billion bushels, exports at 3.3 billion bushels, and ending stocks at 2.127 billion bushels. Brazil's 2025/26 corn production is estimated at 131 million tons, and exports at 43 million tons [3] 3.2 Market Analysis - For soybean meal, Brazil's good weather and expected high - yield soybean production will suppress US soybean and domestic soybean meal prices. With sufficient domestic supply, the soybean meal price will fluctuate, and future focus should be on US soybean procurement and Brazil's harvest [2] - For corn, due to last season's low imports and this season's flood in North China, and the uncertainty of substitute grain auctions, the corn supply is not loose. The corn price is expected to fluctuate, and future focus should be on spot trading, imports, and grain auctions [5] 3.3 Strategy - The investment strategy for both soybean meal and corn is neutral [2][6]

Group 1: Corn Market Analysis - The corn 03 contract closed at 2268 CNY/ton, with a daily decline of 0.04%, indicating limited overall volatility [4][12] - The spot market is entering a pre-holiday winding down phase, with purchasing and sales slowing down; northern port collection volumes are decreasing, and mainstream prices are maintained in the range of 2270-2280 CNY/ton [4][12] - Downstream demand is weak, with deep processing enterprises announcing reduced purchasing notifications, and feed enterprises primarily executing previous contracts [4][12] - The corn market is in a low volatility and weak game phase before the holiday, with prices constrained; the trading focus is shifting towards post-holiday conditions [4][12] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market Insights - There is speculation in the overseas market regarding new U.S. soybean purchases by China, but the outlook for South American production limits the rebound potential [4][12] - Argentina's soybean is facing dry heat stress, potentially leading to production losses, while the market weighs between Brazilian abundance and Argentine reduction narratives [4][12] - The domestic soybean meal market is stabilizing due to external market influences, with a focus on the arrival of March soybeans and reserve auction rhythms post-holiday [4][12] Group 3: Egg Market Overview - The average spot price for eggs in Hebei is approximately 2.88 CNY/jin, reflecting a slight increase of 0.06 CNY/jin from the previous day [5][13] - The 03 contract's price reflects market expectations of high inventory and weak seasonal demand post-holiday, with limited further downside potential [5][13] - There is a cautionary note regarding the risk of further declines in spot prices if inventory pressures exceed expectations or demand recovery is slow [5][13] Group 4: Live Pig Market Situation - The average price for live pigs in major production areas is about 11.82 CNY/kg, facing pressure after a seasonal rebound before the Spring Festival [7][15] - There is significant supply pressure due to concentrated market releases by breeding enterprises, with a planned slaughter volume of 22.92 million heads in February, a decrease of 17.73% from January [7][15] - The futures market has adequately priced in expectations for price declines, with a high basis level reflecting anticipated price corrections [7][15]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All the industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) are rated as neutral [2][5][8] Core Views - The global cotton supply-demand pattern in the 25/26 season is generally loose, and the domestic cotton production has increased significantly. Although there is a high consumption expectation due to the expansion of downstream spindle capacity, the overall upward drive is insufficient. The short-term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range [2] - The global sugar market in the 25/26 season has entered a definite surplus. Although the short-term trade flow is in a tight balance, the medium and long-term surplus pattern will suppress the sugar price. However, the long - term sugar price is not overly pessimistic. The short and medium - term domestic sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure in 2026 is expected to weaken, and the demand for paper pulp will have marginal incremental growth. However, the overall improvement in the pulp fundamentals is limited, and the short - term pulp price is likely to consolidate at a low level [7][8] Summary by Related Content Cotton Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the cotton 2605 contract yesterday was 14,610 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-0.48%) from the previous day. The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,743 yuan/ton, a change of +5 yuan/ton, and the national average price was 16,012 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton [1] - In December, Turkey's cotton imports were 69,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 19.9% and a year - on - year increase of 7.5%. In the 2025/26 season, Turkey's cumulative cotton imports were 300,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 15.0%. Brazilian cotton was the main import source, accounting for 38%, followed by US cotton at 25% [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global supply - demand pattern in the 25/26 season is loose, US cotton exports have weakened again, and terminal demand is weak. The short - term ICE US cotton is expected to remain in a low - level oscillation. In the long - term, US cotton is at a low - valuation range with limited further decline space, but the upward drive is not clear [2] - Domestically, the 25/26 season has seen a significant increase in cotton production, and commercial inventories are seasonally rising. Traders' willingness to hold goods is strong, and spot transactions are good. Textile enterprises are stocking up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply - demand is expected to be balanced, but there is a possibility of inventory tightening at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. The short - term cotton price is expected to fluctuate within a range due to limited domestic demand support and the pressure of internal - external price differences [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the sugar 2605 contract yesterday was 5,224 yuan/ton, a change of +14 yuan/ton (+0.27%) from the previous day. The spot price of sugar in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,300 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan/ton, and in Kunming, Yunnan was 5,150 yuan/ton, with no change [2] - As of February 3, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, 199 sugar mills in India's Maharashtra state had started crushing, the same as the same period last season. The cumulative sugar - cane crushing was 87.029 million tons, an increase of 21.269 million tons compared to the same period last season, and the sugar production was 8.0634 million tons, with an average sugar - production rate of 9.27% [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market in the 25/26 season is in a definite surplus. Although the short - term trade flow is in a tight - balance pattern, it will tend to be loose in the short and medium - term, suppressing the sugar - price rebound space. In the long - term, the sugar price is not overly pessimistic due to factors such as the expected decline in Brazil's sugar - production ratio and potential impacts of El Nino on India's precipitation [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the current supply is seasonally growing. The pressure of sugar imports in the fourth quarter is high, but the imports are expected to return to a low level in the off - season. The syrup volume in December has also decreased significantly after the adjustment of the control scope [4] Strategy - Neutral. In the short and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out, and the focus is on the domestic import - related policy changes in 2026 [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - The closing price of the pulp 2605 contract yesterday was 5,254 yuan/ton, a change of -70 yuan/ton (-1.31%) from the previous day. The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,335 yuan/ton, a change of -40 yuan/ton, and the spot price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, with no change [5] - Yesterday, the spot price of imported wood pulp changed from stable to falling. The price of the main contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined. The downstream's pulp - purchasing mentality was rational, and the market transaction atmosphere was light. The prices of some imported pulp grades in various regions decreased by 10 - 50 yuan/ton [6] Market Analysis - Supply: In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The proportion of trade pulp shipped to Europe is expected to increase, and the domestic import pressure may be relieved to some extent [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity expansion of finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry's profits were squeezed. Downstream paper mills' raw - material purchasing willingness was low, and domestic port inventories were at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is still expanding, and white cardboard and household paper will be the main growth points of demand [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement in pulp fundamentals is limited, and the port inventory remains high. The short - term pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - All three industries (cotton, sugar, and pulp) have a neutral rating [2][5][8] Report Core View - The global cotton supply and demand pattern is still relatively loose in 2025/26, with weak terminal demand and low - level oscillation of ICE US cotton in the short - term. In China, there is a large increase in cotton production, and the supply and demand are expected to be balanced in the whole year. The cotton price is expected to oscillate in a range in the short - term [2] - The global sugar market is in a state of definite surplus in the 2025/26 season. The short - and medium - term surplus pattern restricts the rebound of sugar prices, but long - term prices should not be overly pessimistic. China's sugar market has a new - season production increase expectation, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out in the short - and medium - term [4][5] - The global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken in 2026, and China's import pressure may be alleviated. However, the domestic paper industry has over - capacity, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short term [7][8] Summary by Related Catalogs Cotton Market News and Important Data - Futures: The cotton 2605 contract closed at 14,680 yuan/ton, up 30 yuan/ton (+0.20%) from the previous day. Spot: The Xinjiang arrival price of 3128B cotton was 15,738 yuan/ton, up 13 yuan/ton; the national average price was 16,002 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton [1] - As of January 31, 2026, the cumulative new - season seed cotton listing volume in Pakistan was about 859,000 tons, up 0.8% year - on - year. Domestic mills purchased about 773,000 tons, exported about 28,000 tons, and the unsold inventory in ginneries was about 59,000 tons [1] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global cotton supply - demand pattern is loose in 2025/26. US cotton exports are weak, and ICE US cotton will oscillate at a low level in the short - term. In the long - term, the downward space is limited, but the upward drive is unclear [2] - Domestically, China's cotton production has increased significantly in 2025/26, and commercial inventories are rising seasonally. Traders are more willing to hold goods, and the basis is strengthening. Textile enterprises stocked up before the Spring Festival, but downstream new orders are insufficient, and industrial chain inventories are at a high level in the past five years. The whole - year supply and demand are expected to be balanced, but there may be a tight inventory situation at the end of the year [2] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - term, the expectation of a decrease in Xinjiang cotton planting area in 2026/27 has been partially traded. The domestic demand support is limited, facing the pressure of internal - external price difference, and the cotton price is expected to oscillate within a range [2] Sugar Market News and Important Data - Futures: The sugar 2605 contract closed at 5,210 yuan/ton, up 43 yuan/ton (+0.83%) from the previous day. Spot: The sugar spot price in Nanning, Guangxi was 5,290 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Kunming, Yunnan, it was 5,150 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [3] - As of January 31, 2026, in the 2025/26 sugar - making season in Guangxi, the cumulative crushed sugarcane was 33.4306 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 3.0971 million tons; the output of blended sugar was 4.029 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.788 million tons [3] Market Analysis - Internationally, the global sugar market is in surplus in the 2025/26 season. In the short - term, the tight balance of trade flow in the first quarter supports the raw sugar price, but the trade flow will become looser after the second quarter. In the long - term, the price should not be overly pessimistic [4] - Domestically, the new - season production increase expectation remains unchanged, and the supply is increasing seasonally. The import profit outside the quota is at a high level, and the import pressure in the fourth quarter is high, but it will decrease in the off - season [4][5] Strategy - Neutral. In the short - and medium - term, the domestic sugar is in the inventory - accumulation stage. The decline space is limited, and the sugar price is expected to oscillate and bottom out. 2026 may be the year to confirm the bottom, and attention should be paid to the changes in import - related policies [5] Pulp Market News and Important Data - Futures: The pulp 2605 contract closed at 5,324 yuan/ton, up 48 yuan/ton (+0.91%) from the previous day. Spot: The spot price of Chilean Silver Star softwood pulp in Shandong was 5,375 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of Russian softwood pulp was 4,915 yuan/ton, unchanged [6] - The spot price of imported wood pulp was stable. The downstream pulp - purchasing enthusiasm was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was light [6] Market Analysis - Supply: Overseas new production capacity has been limited in the past two years, and major overseas hardwood pulp mills announced production cuts and conversions in the second half of 2025. In 2026, the global wood pulp supply pressure is expected to weaken, and the growth rate of hardwood pulp shipments may slow down. The demand in Europe is expected to improve, and China's import pressure may be alleviated [7] - Demand: In 2025, there was a large - scale production capacity investment in finished paper, but the terminal demand was insufficient, and the paper industry was in a state of over - capacity. The paper mills' raw material procurement was cautious, and the port inventory was at a historical high. In 2026, the paper production capacity is expanding, and there will be marginal incremental demand for pulp [7] Strategy - Neutral. The overall improvement of the pulp fundamentals is limited, the port inventory remains high, and the pulp price is expected to consolidate at a low level in the short - term [8]