行 行业周报 业 第十一批集采公告发布，规则持续优化 | 研 | | | | | ——医药生物行业周报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 究 | 分析师： | 侯雅楠 | S1150524120001 年 2025 09 | SAC NO： | | 月 | 日 | | 26 | | | 医药生物 | | 投资要点： | | | | | | | | | 证券分析师 |  | 行业要闻 | | | | | | | | | 侯雅楠 | | | | | | | | | | | houyn@bhzq.com | | （1）国家组织药品联合采购办公室关于发布《全国药品集中采购文件 | | | | | | | | | 022-23839211 | | （GY-YD2025-1）》的公告； | | | | | | | | | 研子行究业助理评级 | | 三抗启动 期临床； （2）泽璟制药 III | CD3/DLL3 | | | | | | | | 中药Ⅱ | 看好 | （3）帕博利珠单抗皮下注射剂型获批上市； ...

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (expected to perform better than the CSI 300 index by more than 5% in the next 6 months) [24] Core Insights - From January to July 2025, the overall medical insurance fund income maintained positive growth, with total income reaching 1,684.66 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.93%, while expenditures decreased to 1,369.69 billion yuan, a decline of 0.95% [2][6] - The cumulative surplus of the medical insurance fund for the same period was 314.97 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 63.53%, with a surplus rate of 18.70%, up 6.48 percentage points from the same period in 2024 [2][11] Summary by Sections Medical Insurance Fund Income and Expenditure - The medical insurance fund income from January to July 2025 showed consistent growth, with monthly income figures of 314.31, 232.13, 268.15, 215.61, 199.33, 249.09, and 206.05 billion yuan, reflecting year-on-year growth rates of 10.37%, 5.72%, 0.35%, 10.02%, 3.23%, 9.34%, and 10.15% respectively [6] - In contrast, the expenditures varied, with total expenditures for the same period amounting to 1,369.69 billion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 0.95% [6][19] Employee and Resident Medical Insurance - Employee medical insurance income for January to July 2025 was 1,050.24 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.93%, while expenditures were 776.17 billion yuan, up 2.97% [3][19] - For urban and rural resident medical insurance, income reached 634.43 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8.62%, while expenditures decreased to 593.53 billion yuan, down 5.66% [3][19] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with rich pipeline layouts, such as Heng Rui Medicine, BeiGene, and China National Pharmaceutical Group [4][22] - It also highlights companies with significant single-product potential and those with leading positions in advanced technology platforms [4][22] - In the CXO sector, companies like WuXi AppTec and Kelun-Biotech are recommended, along with quality medical device firms that have been undervalued due to previous price pressures [4][22]

Core Insights - The Chinese commercial health insurance market is showing signs of recovery after three years of slowdown, with expectations to surpass the trillion yuan mark this year [1] - A structural transformation is necessary, shifting from "insuring healthy people" to "insuring people's health," particularly focusing on the large population with pre-existing conditions or chronic diseases [1] - Shanghai has introduced measures to promote high-quality development of commercial health insurance, encouraging the inclusion of elderly and chronic disease patients in coverage [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - In the past year, innovative drug companies have expressed interest in expanding their market through group insurance channels, despite the group insurance market being larger but facing challenges such as low reimbursement for common diseases [3][4] - The group insurance market has a significant potential for covering innovative drug costs, with the annual premium scale exceeding 100 billion yuan, accounting for nearly 30% of the commercial medical insurance market [4][5] - The contribution of group insurance to the payment for innovative drugs is currently low, at around 10 billion yuan, indicating a gap in coverage for specialized drugs [5] Group 2: Challenges and Opportunities - The group insurance market is experiencing pressure from rising claims and a slowdown in premium growth, with a compound annual growth rate of about 11% from 2018 to 2023, significantly lower than that of individual insurance products [6][7] - The average claims ratio for group insurance is expected to remain high, around 80%, due to increased healthcare utilization and employee health awareness [8] - There is a pressing need for reform in group insurance products to accommodate innovative drug coverage, as current structures may lead to overuse of benefits for minor ailments [9][10]

Market Performance - The Sci-Tech Innovation Board's 50 Index rose by 28% in August, reaching a three-year high of 1341.31 points [1] - A number of "bull stocks" emerged in the market, with the top twenty stocks on the Sci-Tech Innovation Board showing significant gains [2] Top Performing Stocks - The stock with the highest increase was Kaipu Cloud, which surged by 147.9% [4] - Other notable performers included Sainuo Medical with a 141.73% increase and Zhejiang Haideman with a 133.7% increase [4][6] Sector Analysis - The semiconductor and optical communication sectors had a strong presence in the top-performing stocks, with several AI hardware companies making the list [6] - Companies like Cold Computing and Dongxin Co. also performed well, reflecting the growing demand for AI infrastructure [6] AI Industry Insights - The release of DeepSeek-V3.1 on August 21 was noted, indicating advancements in AI capabilities [7] - Cold Computing's stock rose by 110.36%, surpassing Kweichow Moutai to become the new "stock king" with a market cap of 624.3 billion yuan [7] Financial Performance - Cold Computing reported a projected revenue of 5 billion to 7 billion yuan for the year, driven by increasing demand for AI computing power [7] - Sainuo Medical achieved a net profit of 13.84 million yuan in the first half of 2025, marking a 296.54% year-on-year increase [9] Industry Trends - The medical device sector is expected to see significant growth, with supportive policies likely to drive advancements in high-end imaging equipment and AI in healthcare [9] - The overall performance of the Sci-Tech Innovation Board reflects a favorable environment for AI and innovative pharmaceuticals, indicating a phase of profitability improvement [10]

Core Viewpoint - The Hong Kong pharmaceutical industry has experienced a strong rebound since 2025, with the Hang Seng Healthcare Index showing a cumulative increase of over 100% this year, indicating heightened market interest in the sector [1][3]. Industry Overview - The recent market sentiment is driven by a collective anticipation of an industry turning point rather than mere valuation recovery. The optimization of centralized procurement policies and ongoing government support for innovative product development and high-end medical device exports are reshaping the competitive landscape of the innovative medical device sector [3][4]. - Companies that achieve profitability breakthroughs first will gain a competitive edge, accelerating growth through a virtuous cycle of increased operational efficiency and reinvestment in innovation [3][4]. Company Performance - Guichuang Tongqiao reported impressive mid-year results for 2025, with revenue reaching 482 million RMB, a year-on-year increase of 31.7%, and net profit exceeding 121 million RMB, up 76.0%, achieving a net profit margin of 25.1% [5][6]. - Compared to peers, Guichuang Tongqiao's growth momentum positions it in the leading tier of high-value innovative medical device companies, reflecting its strong market competitiveness and efficient profit model [5][7]. Key Growth Drivers - The significant increase in profitability is attributed to two main factors: the rising sales of neuro-interventional and peripheral interventional products, which generated revenues of 304 million RMB (up 25.0%) and 176 million RMB (up 46.2%) respectively [7][8]. - The company has focused on cost control and operational efficiency, resulting in a 7 percentage point decrease in sales, R&D, and administrative expense ratios [8]. Strategic Initiatives - Guichuang Tongqiao announced its first cash dividend since its listing, amounting to 32.47 million RMB, reflecting confidence in its profitability and cash flow [9][10]. - The company became the first high-value consumable medical device company to successfully transition from the 18A to the B-share market, indicating its recognized profitability and growth potential [10]. Innovation and Global Expansion - The company has a robust product pipeline with 73 products, 50 of which have been launched in China, and a sales network covering over 3,000 hospitals [11]. - Recent product approvals, such as the ZYLOX Mammoth and ZYLOX Pantheris, are expected to fill market gaps and drive new growth [13]. - Guichuang Tongqiao's overseas revenue reached 15.72 million RMB, with 22 products commercialized in 27 countries, indicating a strong global presence [13][14]. Market Outlook - The medical device industry is evolving towards normalized centralized procurement, accelerated internationalization, and innovation-driven value [17]. - Market analysts have responded positively, with several institutions raising their ratings and target prices for Guichuang Tongqiao, reflecting confidence in its strategic direction and execution [17].

Summary of the Conference Call for Lepu Medical Company Overview - **Company**: Lepu Medical - **Industry**: Medical Devices and Pharmaceuticals Key Points and Arguments Financial Performance and Projections - Lepu Medical expects a profit of **1 to 1.1 billion CNY** for the year 2025, aligning with multiple research institutions' forecasts, and the company is confident in achieving this target [2][4] - For 2026, the company anticipates an overall growth of **approximately 10%**, driven mainly by innovative drugs and new products, while traditional businesses remain stable [6] Strategic Focus Areas - The company's future strategy emphasizes maintaining stability in core businesses while achieving breakthroughs in three key areas: **medical aesthetics, innovative pharmaceuticals, and new medical devices** [2][7] - The medical aesthetics segment is viewed as the most promising growth area, with several product registrations obtained and plans for more product launches [2][8] Medical Aesthetics Segment - The medical aesthetics division has launched products such as **童颜针 (Youthful Needle)** and **水光针 (Hydration Needle)**, with plans to introduce **PDRN injection needles** and **Thermage equipment** within the next year [8] - Expected revenue from the medical aesthetics segment over the next three years is projected to reach **2 to 3 billion CNY**, with profits estimated at **700 to 1 billion CNY** [8] Innovative Pharmaceuticals - The company has made progress in innovative pharmaceuticals, with **recombinant botulinum toxin** entering phase I clinical trials and a focus on other dermatological formulations [9] - The **GLP-1 drug 109** has shown excellent performance, with ongoing clinical trials indicating it may be one of the most effective weight loss products [11] Neurotechnology Development - Lepu Medical is advancing brain-computer interface and neuroregulation technologies, targeting conditions such as **stroke, epilepsy, and urinary incontinence** [13] - The company aims to combine data signal collection with AI analysis to enhance neuroregulation technology development [13] Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns - The company maintains a healthy cash flow from core operations, distributing **600 to 800 million CNY** in dividends annually and continuing share buybacks [5][14] - The neuroregulation division is expected to achieve breakeven within one to two years, alleviating internal investment pressure [5] Market Strategies - In the medical aesthetics market, Lepu Medical adopts a scientific and popular approach, targeting educated consumers born after 1985 with cost-effective products [5][17][18] - The company plans to optimize channels and reduce marketing costs to ensure stable growth [16] Impact of Policy Changes - The company views the **"anti-involution" policy** from the National Medical Insurance Administration positively, as it supports the development of innovative drugs and devices without extreme price competition [24] - Current procurement policies are seen as more moderate, allowing for better market penetration and increased usage of innovative devices [25] Challenges and Future Outlook - The company acknowledges challenges in the innovative medical device sector, particularly with the influx of pseudo-innovative products, and emphasizes the need for clear standards from the medical insurance bureau [26] - Lepu Medical is focused on expanding its international presence and exploring overseas clinical trials for innovative products [51][52] Conclusion - Lepu Medical has identified three main growth areas and aims to maintain stability in existing businesses while leveraging new opportunities to create value for investors [54]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Optimistic" rating for the industry [7][71]. Core Insights - The report highlights the intensive disclosure of company performances, with a focus on companies that exceed expectations. It emphasizes the upcoming World Lung Cancer Conference (WCLC) and the importance of monitoring related company data [6][70]. - The report notes a significant increase in the medical device sector and mentions the approval of new treatments by regulatory bodies, indicating a positive trend in the pharmaceutical and medical device industries [2][16]. Industry News - The National Healthcare Security Administration issued a temporary management method for disease-based payment, which includes budget management and payment standards [16]. - Semaglutide received FDA approval for treating MASH, showcasing advancements in drug approvals [16]. Company Announcements - **Hengrui Medicine** reported a revenue of approximately 15.76 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, a year-on-year increase of 15.88%, and a net profit of approximately 4.45 billion yuan, up 29.67% [25]. - **Baili Tianheng** announced a significant drop in revenue but received breakthrough therapy designation from the FDA for its drug targeting advanced non-small cell lung cancer [28]. - **Rongchang Bio** received breakthrough therapy designation for its drug RC148 for non-small cell lung cancer and signed a licensing agreement [29]. - **Baiyao Tai** reported a revenue of approximately 441.89 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 9.84%, and received EMA approval for Usymro® [30]. Market Review - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.85%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector increased by 1.85% during the week of August 15-21, 2025 [5][59]. - The industry’s price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) was reported at 31.23 times, with a valuation premium of 154% compared to the CSI 300 index [5][63]. Weekly Strategy - The report suggests focusing on companies with performance exceeding expectations during the earnings disclosure period and highlights the potential benefits from policy support for innovative drugs and medical devices [6][70].

Group 1 - The medical sector is active, with the largest medical ETF in A-shares (512170) seeing a price increase of over 1% and a trading volume of 322 million yuan, ranking first among similar ETFs [1] - Major stocks such as Meihua Medical, Kaili Medical, and Huaxi Biological have shown significant gains, with Meihua Medical hitting a 20% limit up [1] - The top-weighted stocks, Mindray Medical and United Imaging, both rose over 3% [1] Group 2 - Gilead Sciences announced a 100% prevention efficacy for its HIV-1 capsid inhibitor lenacapavir in phase 3 clinical trials [3] - Major companies like Midea and Haier are accelerating their investments in the healthcare sector, focusing on medical imaging and low-temperature storage [3] - The medical device sector is benefiting from policy support and innovation, with a focus on high-certainty performance in specific sub-sectors during the mid-year reporting period [3] Group 3 - The National Healthcare Security Administration has published an initial review list for innovative drugs, indicating a significant increase in the number of drug generic names passing initial review compared to 2024 [3] - The "anti-involution" principle in centralized procurement is established, leading to a gradual easing of policy impacts, which may improve profitability in the medical device sector [3] - The in-vitro diagnostics market is seeing accelerated market share growth for domestic leaders, with high-value consumables expected to experience a recovery in performance and valuation due to eased procurement policies [3]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Overweight (Maintain)" [2] Core Viewpoints - The innovative pharmaceutical and medical device market continues to thrive, with an increase in the prosperity of segmented tracks. The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 2.37%, while the pharmaceutical and biological sector increased by 3.08%, ranking 10th among 31 primary sub-industries. The pharmaceutical sector has shown strong recovery and continuity, aligning with previous predictions that declines would be short-lived and shallow [4][8][5]. - The market remains focused on innovative pharmaceuticals and medical devices, with significant events catalyzing the sector. Key highlights include a price increase of up to 170% for Eli Lilly's weight loss drug Mounjaro in the UK and the announcement of pivotal clinical trial results for a dual-target antibody by CanSino Biologics [4][8][5]. - Recommendations for investment focus on specific segments such as GLP-1 drugs, second-generation IO companies, and innovative medical devices, with notable companies identified for potential growth [4][8][5]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the pharmaceutical and biological industry [2]. Market Dynamics - The pharmaceutical sector has shown a year-to-date return of 25.02%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 18.22 percentage points. The sector's valuation is currently at 27.0 times PE, with a premium of 32.9% compared to the overall A-share market [5][16][8]. Key Company Performance - Notable companies recommended for investment include WuXi Biologics, 3SBio, Changchun High-tech, and others, with their respective stock performances highlighted [2][26][25]. Sector Trends - The report emphasizes the ongoing trend of innovation in pharmaceuticals and medical devices, with specific attention to the GLP-1 drug market and second-generation IO companies, suggesting a rotation of investment opportunities within these segments [4][8][5].

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "stronger than the market" (预计6个月内，行业指数表现强于市场表现5%以上) [35] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of multi-party collaboration in supporting the development of innovative drugs and medical devices, highlighting the integration of data, policy, and funding as essential elements for growth [4] - The report notes that recent measures from the Financial Supervisory Administration and the Medical Insurance Bureau aim to promote the development of commercial health insurance, which will provide additional support for the innovation and development of drugs and medical devices [4] Summary by Sections Industry Insights - The Medical Insurance Bureau's recent meetings have established a comprehensive support system for innovative drugs and medical devices, involving various stakeholders such as research institutions, enterprises, medical institutions, financial companies, and government departments [4] - The Financial Supervisory Administration has released measures to enhance the quality of commercial health insurance, which will further support the biopharmaceutical industry's innovation [4] Investment Strategy - The report suggests focusing on innovative pharmaceutical companies with rich pipelines, such as 恒瑞医药 (Hengrui Medicine), 百济神州 (BeiGene), and 中国生物制药 (China Biologic Products) [6] - It also highlights companies with significant single-product potential and those leading in advanced technology platforms, recommending关注 (focus on) companies like 凯莱英 (Kailaiying) and 药明康德 (WuXi AppTec) [6] Market Performance - The pharmaceutical sector experienced a decline of 0.84% last week, ranking last among 28 industries, while the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index rose by 1.23% [9][21] - The report indicates that the pharmaceutical sector's valuation is currently at 30.91 times (TTM), with a premium of 37.32% compared to the overall A-shares excluding financials [27]