"2026年中国经济增速预计在4.5%—5%区间，这一温和的增长目标，是为实现更高优先级目标而做出的权衡，即推动中国经济的深度转型。"近日，罗 兰贝格全球管委会联席总裁戴璞（Denis Depoux）在"预见2026"行业趋势会上如是表示。 吴钊据2025年1月至11月数据推演，全年投资并购交易金额超3500亿美元，同比增长超30%；中企海外并购上半年金额近200亿美元，同比增长八成，体 现出海进程的深度本地化。资本市场方面，A股与港股合计融资额占全球IPO市场的1/3，A股重大资产重组案例超130笔，较前一年数量翻倍，募投管退各环 节全面修复，全年交易数量超1.1万笔，市场活跃度显著提升。 戴璞表示，当前，部分行业收缩规模，另一部分行业则加速升级，这正是"创造性破坏"的生动写照，也恰恰印证了读懂中国经济的难度所在：它正处 于"一边增长、一边收缩"的分化状态，这种分化的背后是一场深刻的经济转型变革。 "我们或许会看到增速放缓，但实则是在为构建更强劲、更具韧性的经济根基铺路。增速数字本身并不重要，关键在于理解其背后的转型逻辑。"他说。 会上，罗兰贝格发布《预见2026：中国行业趋势报告》（下称"报告"），该报告 ...

Core Insights - The publishing industry is experiencing a significant transformation due to the impact of AI and changing consumer preferences, leading to a decline in traditional book sales while "healing economy" books are gaining popularity [1] - The year 2025 is marked by a paradox for publishers, with declining sales and rising book prices creating a complex landscape that cannot be easily categorized as positive or negative [1] - Readers in 2025 are benefiting from the re-release of many classic books and a shift towards deep reading, with a notable increase in the availability of collectible titles [1] Industry Trends - Online book sales are declining at a faster rate than offline sales, indicating a shift in consumer purchasing behavior [1] - The emergence of both new and established publishing brands reflects a commitment to value publishing, regardless of market fluctuations [1] - The market is seeing a resurgence of social science books, with philosophy titles also performing surprisingly well, suggesting a renewed interest in deeper intellectual engagement [1][22] Notable Publications - Several significant works have emerged in 2025, showcasing in-depth research and unique perspectives, such as Liu Chen's "Research on the Taiping Heavenly Kingdom" and Ma Zhao's "Abandoned Husbands: The Lives and Crimes of Lower-Class Women in Wartime Beijing" [9][11] - The trend of producing high-quality, specialized non-fiction continues, with a focus on historical narratives and cultural critiques that resonate with contemporary issues [16][28] Reader Engagement - The concept of "good books" is evolving, with a growing emphasis on the meaningfulness of content rather than mere marketability [3][4] - Readers are increasingly seeking books that challenge their perspectives and provide profound insights, leading to a longer "must-read" list for 2025 compared to previous years [29][32] - The publishing industry is encouraged to maintain a focus on quality and meaningful content to meet the demands of discerning readers [32]

Group 1 - The U.S. stock market showed mixed performance with the Dow Jones leading gains, while the S&P 500 also rose and the Nasdaq experienced a slight decline [1] - The upcoming economic data releases, including the December non-farm payroll report, are expected to show a slowdown in hiring, with an anticipated increase of 55,000 jobs compared to 64,000 in November [1] - The unemployment rate, which reached a four-year high of 4.6% in November, is projected to decrease by 0.1 percentage points in December [1] Group 2 - Investors are closely monitoring potential nominations for the next Federal Reserve Chair, as current Chair Jerome Powell's term ends in May [2] - The upcoming week will feature key economic data, including service sector activity and consumer confidence, while corporate earnings reports will be limited to a few companies [2] Group 3 - The S&P 500 index rose over 16% in 2025, with the Nasdaq gaining more than 20%, despite a significant drop earlier in the year that nearly led to a bear market [3] - The resilience of the U.S. economy is highlighted, overcoming challenges such as high inflation and a slowing labor market [3] - Notable stock performances include Nvidia with over a 30% increase and Google leading tech giants with over a 60% rise [3] Group 4 - Goldman Sachs strategist Peter Oppenheimer noted that the tech sector's growth is supported by strong earnings growth, rather than speculative bubbles seen in past market cycles [4] - Current valuations in the tech sector are not as extreme as during previous bubbles, indicating a more rational market behavior [4] - Wall Street strategists expect the S&P 500 to rise approximately 10% over the next year, raising questions about the sustainability of the tech-driven rally [4] Group 5 - HSBC strategist Nicole Inui described the 2025 market performance as highly concentrated rather than broadly based, with the equal-weighted S&P 500 lagging behind the market-cap-weighted index for three consecutive years [5] - The tech sector has contributed about 90% of the market rebound following tariff announcements, indicating its significant influence on market dynamics [5] Group 6 - Comerica Wealth Management's CIO Eric Teal compared the current market to a "continuous wind of creative destruction," emphasizing the natural evolution of industries through innovation [6] - The ongoing excitement around AI trading and its real-world challenges will likely be a central narrative for investors in 2026 [6]

2025年12月23日，第一财经《云程笃行·万里可期 | 2025年度财经思想者盛典》圆满落幕。智汇集团创始 人及首席经济学家夏春、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长刘功润、京华世家家族办公室董事长聂俊 峰、新鼎资本董事长张驰和第一财经总编辑杨宇东共同呈现了一场精彩的年度思想演说秀，围绕宏观趋 势、居民消费、年轻人理财、具身智能等热点议题展开，探寻2026年值得期待的结构性机遇。 此为《2025年度财经思想者盛典》中智汇集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春的演讲完整版内容 大家好！我是夏春。此刻，我们正站在"十四五"圆满收官、"十五五"即将开启的历史节点上，中央经济 工作会议刚刚擘画了2026年的发展蓝图，这让我们对未来中国经济的展望，充满了时代的使命感。 站在岁末，我想用三个关键词，与大家分享对中国经济的观察与思考。第一个关键词是韧性。 我喜欢打乒乓球，中国国家乒乓球队业绩长虹，大家都知道与国乒优良传统，举国训练模式相关，但大 家未必知道，国际乒联不断修改比赛规则，小球改大球一度冲击国乒的优势地位，但上海红双喜研制出 新一代乒乓球拍，帮助运动健儿所向披靡，这种新球拍韧性强，底劲足，中国经济也是如此。 2025年，中国经 ...

2025年12月23日，第一财经《云程笃行·万里可期 | 2025年度财经思想者盛典》圆满落幕。智汇 集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春、中欧陆家嘴国际金融研究院副院长刘功润、京华世家家族办公室董 事长聂俊峰、新鼎资本董事长张驰和第一财经总编辑杨宇东共同呈现了一场精彩的年度思想演说秀， 围绕宏观趋势、居民消费、年轻人理财、具身智能等热点议题展开，探寻2026年值得期待的结构性 机遇。 此为《 2025年度财经思想者盛典》中 智汇集团创始人及首席经济学家夏春 的演讲完整版内容 大家好！我是夏春。此刻，我们正站在 "十四五"圆满收官、"十五五"即将开启的历史节点上，中央 经济工作会议刚刚擘画了2026年的发展蓝图，这让我们对未来中国经济的展望，充满了时代的使命 感。 站在岁末，我想用三个关键词，与大家分享对中国经济的观察与思考。第一个关键词是韧性。 还是拿中国乒乓球队举例，虽然我们有马龙，樊振东，孙颖莎，王曼昱这样的猛将，但乒乓球队内部 的竞争极度激烈，一些运动员不得不提前退役，选择出海拼搏，普通运动员可能也会越来越难。 我喜欢打乒乓球，中国国家乒乓球队业绩长虹，大家都知道与国乒优良传统，举国训练模式相关，但 大家未必 ...

专题：第20届中国保险创新论坛 12月17日金融一线消息，以"融创共生"为主题的第20届中国保险创新论坛暨第20届中国保险创新大奖颁 奖盛典今日在常州举行。论坛主席、保险文化杂志社社长张迎宾为论坛致辞。 张迎宾指出，未来的赢家，将不再是销售最多保单的公司，而是最懂得客户、最能管理风险、最能整合 生态的"生命服务伙伴"。保险业破局的关键，在于我们能否有勇气用熊彼特的魄力去自我颠覆，用德鲁 克的智慧去系统布局，并用克里斯坦森的警醒去双轨前行。 张迎宾 论坛主席、保险 文化杂志社社长 以下是张迎宾的致辞全文： 一方面，是汹涌而来的浪潮：人工智能、大数据、物联网，这些技术不再是遥远的名词，而是正在重塑 我们业务逻辑的现实力量。我们的客户也变了，他们不再满足于一张标准化的、冷冰冰的保单，他们需 要的是个性化、场景化、甚至即时的保障服务。更不用说，那些手握数据和流量的科技巨头、新兴平 台，正虎视眈眈地准备跨界进入我们的赛道。腾讯、蚂蚁金服、比亚迪已经进来了。 而另一方面，是我们保险业数百年沉淀下来的"稳健基因"。我们崇尚审慎、注重风控、流程严谨。这种 基因让我们穿越了无数经济周期，但也让我们在面对颠覆性创新时，显得有些步 ...

欧洲缺乏活力的状况已成为了一个紧急问题。 至少自本世纪初以来，围绕欧洲黯淡增长前景的争论就一直没有停止过，而本世纪20年代的到来又给其 赋予了新的紧迫性。不仅俄乌冲突暴露了这片大陆对进口能源的危险依赖，美国政府的更迭也迫使欧洲 人重新思考如何确保自身未来的繁荣、安全和主权。此外随着美中两国在人工智能这个被普遍认为足以 与互联网相提并论的下一项通用技术领域竞逐领先地位，欧洲缺乏活力的状况已成为了一个紧急问题。 问题不仅在于人们常说的欧盟与美国人均收入之间的差距，还在于欧洲在科技方面长期落后，在数字平 台经济、人工智能、新太空竞赛以及其他对21世纪竞争力和安全至关重要的领域几乎都缺乏全球公认的 领军企业。 由于高度依赖其他地方打造的先进技术，同时又无法创造足以为自身各项战略目标和未来债务提供资金 的增长，欧洲成为了一个展现创造性破坏——创新性的新挑战者推翻生产力较低的企业——为何非常重 要的典型例子。如果做不到这一点，那么经济增速的逐步下降就仅仅是问题的开端而已。 尽管欧洲在贸易和监管方面取得了成功，但除非它能像美国、中国和其他国家一样以同样的速度和规模 进行创新，否则就仍将处于弱势。由于人工智能除了能提供广泛的 ...

城乡收入差距同样是一种发展现象。无论是农业经济还是以农业占主导的农村经济，在工业化和城镇化 过程中必然经历生产要素向外转移的过程，这也是资源重新配置的过程，最集中地表现为剩余劳动力的 转移，由此农业劳动生产率和国民经济整体劳动生产率同时得以提高。农业经营规模扩大、农业机械化 水平提高和剩余劳动力充分转移，可能由于各种因素受到阻碍，或者产生不协调现象，造成农业劳动生 产率提高速度滞后于非农产业的情形，导致务农收益偏低，最终表现为城乡收入差距扩大。例如，2024 年占劳动力总数22.2%的农业劳动力，仅生产了占GDP比重6.8%的农业增加值，这展示了农业劳动生产 率偏低的事实，由此可以理解为什么务农收入无法实现同非农产业收入的同步提高。同年在农户可支配 收入中，来自务农等家庭经营收入的比重仅为33.9%，显著低于工资性收入的比重42.4%。 基尼系数是一个综合性的指标，主要由农村收入差距、城镇收入差距和城乡之间收入差距三部分构成， 在统计意义上相对完整地反映全社会的收入分配状况。长期以来，城乡收入比率是整体收入差距的一个 主要的贡献因素。在21世纪第一个十年末收入差距达到最高点之前，城乡收入比率的变化同基尼系数保 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the current AI landscape should not be viewed as a bubble but rather as a transformative force akin to a wildfire that clears out the old to make way for new growth, emphasizing the concept of "creative destruction" [1][4][30]. Group 1: The Nature of AI Wildfire - The AI sector is currently facing an overabundance of low-value applications and models, which are likened to "flammable materials" that will be eliminated in the ongoing transformation [2][6]. - Wildfires in ecology serve as purifiers and catalysts, returning nutrients to the soil and creating space for new growth, paralleling the necessary cleansing of the AI ecosystem [4][18]. Group 2: Different Players in the AI Ecosystem - Three types of players are identified in the AI ecosystem: - "Flammable materials" which are doomed to fail due to lack of real demand and differentiation [6][7]. - "Fire-resistant giants" like Nvidia and Amazon, which possess strong revenue streams and technological advantages, ensuring their survival and growth [9]. - "Budding entities" that emerge from the ashes, such as startups founded by knowledgeable individuals, which can leverage lower costs and resources post-transformation [10][12]. Group 3: Historical Context of Technological Fires - The history of technological innovation is marked by significant "wildfires" that, while destructive, ultimately laid the groundwork for future advancements [13][14]. - The 2000 internet bubble led to a massive investment in fiber optics, which, despite initial overcapacity, became foundational for the digital age [15][16]. - The 2008 financial crisis allowed companies like Apple and Amazon to thrive, utilizing the infrastructure and resources left behind by the previous crisis [17][18]. Group 4: Future of AI and Energy - The current AI "wildfire" is more intense than previous ones, with significant investments in computational infrastructure projected to exceed $480 billion by 2025 [19][22]. - The real challenge lies in energy supply, as AI data centers consume vast amounts of electricity, necessitating investments in sustainable energy infrastructure to support future growth [20][22]. Group 5: Lessons from the Sequoia Tree - The resilience of the sequoia tree serves as a metaphor for the strength needed in the AI sector, emphasizing the importance of building robust foundations to withstand challenges [23][26]. - The article warns against uncontrolled wildfires, which can lead to catastrophic outcomes, highlighting the need for periodic adjustments to prevent larger crises [25][27]. - The distinction between speculative bubbles and beneficial wildfires is made, with the latter fostering innovation and growth in the long term [28][30].

以下文章来源于远川投资评论 ，作者张婕妤 远川投资评论 . 看更好的资管内容 周金涛离世将近十年，中国投资界仍然没有任何一句话能够比"人生发财靠康波"更有号召力。 中国人习惯将冗长的俄式命名简化，陀思妥耶夫斯基=陀氏，柴可夫斯基=老柴，康德拉季耶夫好不容易把 资本主义经济简化成一个50-60年一循环的周期理论，我们又简化成了康波二字。 作为这一理论杰出的继承者，周金涛曾在2016年春天留下了极具"水晶球"色彩的预判：2018年将是康波周期 的至暗时刻，2019年则是新一轮周期的起点。这是1985年以后出生的人，生命中第一次发财的机会。 那年年初，他在南开大学校友会上乐观地定下一个"四年之约"："到2020年一定要再来参加一次校友会，到 时候我要看谁还在台上发言，我认为到了那个时刻还在台上发言的，至少作为一代人来讲，才是真正的成 功[2]。" 命运却没有给他赴约的机会。 2016年冬，周金涛因胰腺癌与世长辞。他没能亲眼见证2018年沪深300在中美贸易摩擦与金融去杠杆双重风 暴下，一年跌去25%的疮痍；也没能亲耳听到2019年中国核心资产绝处逢生，迎来史诗级爆发的鼎沸。 平心而论，2018年后全球市场进入了越来 ...