（原标题：章俊把脉2026：中国资产配置迎加减乘除新逻辑） 21世纪经济报道 记者 崔文静 北京报道 "站在'十四五'收官、'十五五'开局之年，我们认为变局中正孕育着新的飞跃。"11月26日，在北京举行 的中国银河证券2026年度策略报告会上，该公司首席经济学家、研究院院长章俊在以"变局·飞跃" 为主 题的演讲中，为现场投资者勾勒出未来宏观图景。 他指出，中国正身处"两个变局、一个飞跃"的宏大叙事——全球百年未有之大变局，国内从土地财政全 面转向新质生产力的转型变局，以及以人工智能为核心的科技飞跃。 在这承上启下的关键时点，章俊系统阐述了其"ReNew"分析框架，并指出在以"加减乘除"为脉络的"新 阶段供给侧结构性改革"推动下，中国资本市场将告别传统周期思维，依据全新的"银河指南针"迎来历 史性重估机遇。 "全球经济命运的齿轮正在转动，其长期背景是'3D挑战'，即人口老龄化、债务危机和逆全球化。"章俊 在分析全球宏观背景时，描绘了一幅从长期到近期的连锁图景。 他指出，"3D挑战"近期集中表现为"美国政治转向、中国经济转型、全球科技飞跃"这三重拐点。 在此复杂背景下，政府与市场的关系需要被重新定义。章俊引用了2 ...

21世纪经济报道记者张欣 与顶尖经济学家相遇是何种体验？北京初冬的午后，中央财经大学讲堂内座无虚席，就连过道和走廊也 挤满了人。大家静候的，正是2025年诺贝尔经济学奖获得者菲利普·阿吉翁（Philippe Aghion）。这位 用"创造性破坏"重构增长理论的经济学家，即将带来一场融合学术深度与人格温度的思想盛宴。 菲利普·阿吉翁（以下简称"阿吉翁"）的名字，早已与现代增长理论紧密相连。这位1956年出生的法国 经济学家，拥有巴黎高等师范学院数学经济学博士学位、美国哈佛大学博士学位，曾先后在麻省理工学 院、哈佛大学等世界顶尖高校任教，现任欧洲工商管理学院，法兰西学院和伦敦经济学院教授。 学术生涯中，他最核心的贡献便是与彼得·豪伊特等人共创"创新驱动增长理论"，将熊彼特"创造性破 坏"概念模型化、体系化，打破了索洛模型长期垄断增长理论领域的局面，这一突破也让他斩获2025年 诺贝尔经济学奖。 出身于法国时尚品牌Chloe创始人家庭的阿吉翁，自幼便在"颠覆传统"的创新氛围中成长，母亲以简约 设计打破时尚界陈规的经历，更潜移默化地塑造了他批判性审视主流理论的学术品格。从学术殿堂的理 论构建者，到全球经济发展的建言人 ...

Core Insights - Philippe Aghion, Peter Howitt, and Joel Mokyr were awarded the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences for their contributions to the theory of "innovation-driven economic growth" [2] - Aghion and Howitt were recognized for their theory of "creative destruction," which explains how innovation disrupts old orders and drives economic vitality through continuous upheaval and reconstruction [2][3] - Aghion emphasizes the importance of balancing competition and protection for those affected by "creative destruction," using examples like artificial intelligence to illustrate both job displacement and job creation [11][13] Group 1: Creative Destruction Theory - The "creative destruction" theory, initially proposed by Joseph Schumpeter, posits that new innovations replace old technologies, with economic growth driven by new firms entering the market through innovation [7] - Aghion's optimistic view contrasts with Schumpeter's more pessimistic outlook, as he believes effective competition policies can prevent established firms from creating barriers to market entry [8] - The theory's three core components include cumulative innovation, entrepreneurial drive for temporary monopoly profits, and the paradox of innovation needing monopoly profits while also potentially stifling new innovations [7][8] Group 2: China's Economic Landscape - Aghion notes that China has made significant strides in areas like blockchain, solar panels, electric vehicles, and autonomous driving, showcasing its true innovative capabilities [13] - He identifies China's large domestic market, skilled labor force, and governance that combines market competition with industrial policy as key advantages for future growth [13] - Aghion highlights the need for improvements in China's financial ecosystem, particularly in venture capital and institutional investment, to support frontier innovation [13] Group 3: Global Innovation and Protectionism - Aghion expresses concern over the rise of protectionism, particularly in the U.S., arguing that it hinders innovation by limiting global market access and competition [16][17] - He advocates for free trade as a crucial driver of innovation, enabling cross-border flow of technology and competition [16] - Aghion suggests that China should strengthen its domestic competition mechanisms and seek long-term partnerships with Europe to maintain its competitive edge amid rising protectionism [18] Group 4: Personal Insights and Future Plans - Aghion reflects on the impact of receiving the Nobel Prize, noting it has changed how he is perceived and increased the scrutiny of his statements [24][25] - He plans to continue his research in economic growth, artificial intelligence, green transition, and effective social security systems, particularly in the context of China [25] - Aghion emphasizes the importance of young people asking fundamental questions and maintaining resilience in the face of challenges [28][30]

20世纪40年代曾赴哈佛大学师从熊彼特求学的我国著名经济学家、发展经济学的奠基人张培刚先生，是我国熊彼特经济思想研究的先行者，曾亲自为熊彼 特的《资本主义、社会主义与民主》（1979年译出）、《经济发展理论》（1990年译出）和《经济分析史》（1991年译出）三本著作中译本倾情作序。正 如他在1990年为《经济发展理论》所作的中译本序言中具有先见之明地指出的，"鉴于熊彼特的两大卷《经济周期》一书篇幅浩繁，一时在我国恐怕还难 以有中译本出现"，35年之后的今天，该书中文全译本才首次在中国面世。在世界各国依然未能摆脱后衰退经济低迷的阴影笼罩，同时人工智能方兴未艾 有可能开启新一轮长波的当下，该书中译本的出版可谓恰逢其时！读者可以通过研读这部经典，回归经济周期的本源。 熊彼特这种将宏观经济学中的经济周期与经济增长结合在一起构想的图景，与主流的截然不同。主流理论通常将经济周期与经济增长分开考察，将经济周 期性波动视作对资本主义内在均衡和稳定"常态"的外部干扰和冲击。而熊彼特恰恰从资本主义经济体系内部具有开拓精神的企业家"创造性破坏"系统现有 均衡反复出现的过程出发，理解和揭示资本主义秩序的动力——没有创新，就没有企业 ...

11月14日，2025年诺贝尔经济学奖得主菲利普·阿吉翁（Philippe Aghion）受聘为中央财经大学名誉教授 并在中央财经大学作专题讲座。中央财经大学校长马海涛、副校长陈斌开、1998级货币银行专业校友李 一南博士，以及校内各单位、部门负责人，校友代表、师生等现场聆听讲座。讲座由中央财经大学副校 长李涛主持。 图1 活动现场 在名誉教授聘任仪式上，马海涛发表致辞，并为阿吉翁教授佩戴校徽、颁发聘书。他表示，中央财经大 学聘任阿吉翁教授为名誉教授，既是对阿吉翁教授卓越学术成就的礼赞，也是学校深化国际化进程、拥 抱世界学术前沿的生动写照。办学七十六载，中央财经大学始终坚守初心，多学科并进，积极服务国家 战略需求。学校与多位诺奖得主结下深厚学术渊源，此次与阿吉翁教授结缘，是追求卓越、开拓创新的 又一里程碑。学校也期待与阿吉翁教授携手，在多领域开展高层次学术合作，促进跨学科研究与国际交 流，为全球经济发展贡献智慧与力量。 图2 聘任仪式 聘任仪式后，阿吉翁教授带来题为"熊彼特式研发创新与人工智能的力量"的专题讲座。他从熊彼特提出 的"创造性破坏"概念切入，阐释了新技术替代旧技术如何推动经济增长，并指出熊彼特式增 ...

稳居全球第一。截至2025年第三季度末，石头科技在德国、法国、西班牙、美国、加拿大等多个海外重 点市场的家居清洁设备领域中稳居第一。 11月13日，"2025福布斯中国创新力企业50强"榜单正式发布。凭借在创新能力、企业治理、企业成长 性、创新驱动的市场优势以及企业社会形象等多个维度的优势，石头科技成功入选。 据了解，今年榜单中有18 家企业连续入选、28 家企业首次上榜，涵盖算力基础设施、机器人、大模 型、新能源、商业航天、消费硬件等多个高成长性行业，充分彰显中国创新生态的蓬勃活力。值得关注 的是，在消费硬件领域，石头科技与大疆创新、影石创新三家企业成功入选，成为该领域创新力量的核 心代表。而石头科技之所以能从众多企业中脱颖而出，关键在于对科技创新的极致追求与持续坚定的研 发投入，以技术硬实力斩获权威认可。 财报显示，2025年前三季度，石头科技研发投入10.28亿元，同比增长60.56%，研发投入占营收比例达 到8.52%。截至2025年6月底，石头科技累计获得境内外专利及软件著作权确实达4694项，覆盖了导 航、避障、结构设计等关键领域，为产品功能升级、体验完善及品类拓展提供了坚实支撑。 2025年初， ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent release of the "15th Five-Year Plan Suggestions" by the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China emphasizes technological innovation, deepening reforms, and new productive forces as the core drivers for the next five years, aligning with the recent Nobel Prize awarded to scholars for their contributions to innovation-driven economic growth [3][25]. Summary by Sections Nobel Laureates' Theoretical Insights - The Nobel Prize awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt recognizes their contributions to understanding innovation-driven economic growth, providing valuable theoretical guidance for implementing the "15th Five-Year Plan Suggestions" [4][21]. - Mokyr's theory emphasizes the importance of "useful knowledge" and its integration into economic growth, highlighting the historical context of knowledge accumulation and cultural shifts that foster innovation [5][6][11]. - Aghion and Howitt's model focuses on the role of entrepreneurial-led technological innovation as a key driver of economic growth, emphasizing the dynamics of creative destruction and the importance of market competition for fostering innovation [13][14][15]. Key Elements of the "15th Five-Year Plan Suggestions" - The plan outlines a strategic positioning for the next five years, aiming for high-quality development, significant improvements in technological self-reliance, and deepened reforms [26][27]. - Technological innovation is positioned as the core support for modernization, with a focus on original innovation and tackling key technological challenges [27][29]. - The plan emphasizes the construction of a modern industrial system, prioritizing the real economy and fostering emerging industries such as new energy and advanced manufacturing [28][30]. Alignment with Nobel Laureates' Theories - The emphasis on technological innovation in the "15th Five-Year Plan" aligns with the theories of the Nobel laureates, particularly in the context of transitioning from technology catching up to leading innovation [29][34]. - The plan's focus on enhancing original innovation and integrating technological advancements with industrial innovation resonates with Aghion and Howitt's views on the role of firms in driving innovation [30][31]. - The recognition of the need for a conducive institutional environment for innovation reflects the insights of Aghion and Howitt regarding the impact of social and institutional factors on technological progress [19][20]. Implications for Economic Growth - The plan's strategic focus on technological innovation is seen as essential for overcoming the "middle-income trap" and achieving sustainable economic growth [34][35]. - The integration of technological advancements into the economy is expected to enhance overall productivity and drive quality improvements in economic growth [36][37]. - The emphasis on a balanced competition policy aims to foster an environment conducive to innovation while ensuring fair market practices, aligning with Aghion and Howitt's findings on the relationship between competition and innovation [17][24].

Core Viewpoints - The article emphasizes the importance of technological innovation as the core driving force for economic growth in China, aligning with the recent Nobel Prize-winning theories on innovation-driven economic growth [4][6][32]. Summary by Sections Nobel Prize Winners' Theories - Joel Mokyr's theory highlights the significance of "useful knowledge" and its role in driving economic growth through the integration of scientific principles and practical knowledge [7][8]. - Philippe Aghion and Peter Howitt focus on the relationship between economic growth and technological innovation, introducing the concept of "creative destruction" where new innovations replace outdated technologies [14][15][16]. "Fifteen Five" Planning Suggestions - The "Fifteen Five" planning document outlines a strategic framework for China's economic and social development, emphasizing high-quality development and technological self-reliance as key objectives [27][28]. - It identifies the need to strengthen original innovation and tackle key core technologies to support the modernization of the economy [29][32]. Technological Innovation as a Core Driver - The planning document positions technological innovation as the primary driver for achieving high-quality development, reflecting a shift from technology catching up to leading in innovation [32][37]. - It stresses the importance of integrating technological innovation with industrial innovation to enhance the efficiency of the innovation chain [33]. New Quality Productivity - The concept of "new quality productivity" is introduced, which is characterized by technological breakthroughs and innovative resource allocation, aiming to enhance overall productivity [34][35]. - The planning document emphasizes the need for a conducive institutional environment to foster innovation, including effective intellectual property protection and a robust financial system [20][21]. Policy Recommendations - The article suggests specific measures to implement the planning document's goals, focusing on enhancing the innovation ecosystem and addressing the challenges of transitioning to a high-quality growth model [45].

Core Points - The upcoming Tesla shareholder meeting on November 6 will vote on Elon Musk's ambitious compensation plan, which is structured over a 10-year period with 12 operational milestones [2][3] - If Musk meets all targets, he could acquire 12% of Tesla's stock, potentially valuing his shares at $1 trillion, contingent on Tesla's market cap reaching $2 trillion within the decade [2][4] - The operational goals include delivering 20 million vehicles, selling 1 million AI robots, commercializing 1 million autonomous taxis, and increasing FSD subscription users to 10 million, alongside a significant increase in adjusted EBITDA from $17 billion in 2024 to $400 billion [2][3] Compensation Plan Details - The plan is described as "super ambitious" and aims to incentivize Musk as a unique and pioneering CEO [2][3] - The board previously approved a similar plan in 2018, which Musk completed ahead of schedule, although a federal judge later nullified the resulting compensation [4][5] - The current plan is seen as a challenge for Musk, who aims to secure greater control over Tesla by increasing his ownership from 12.8% to nearly 25% if successful [4][5] Entrepreneurial Spirit - Musk is characterized as a visionary entrepreneur willing to tackle seemingly impossible challenges, with a history of disrupting industries through innovative approaches [5][6] - His ambition includes long-term goals such as colonizing Mars, integrating various technologies to achieve this vision [6][7] - Musk's approach is rooted in "first principles" thinking, allowing him to break free from conventional constraints and drive significant advancements in sectors like aerospace and electric vehicles [6][7] Innovation and Governance - The compensation plan's vote represents a broader conflict between traditional governance structures and the need for innovative breakthroughs [7] - The outcome of the vote will test the balance between standardized governance and the space required for extraordinary value creation [7][8] - Regardless of the plan's success, Tesla may not suffer significant losses, while Musk seeks to motivate himself through this ambitious compensation structure [7]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the significance of the 2025 Nobel Prize in Economic Sciences awarded to Joel Mokyr, Philippe Aghion, and Peter Howitt for their contributions to understanding the mechanisms of innovation-driven economic growth, highlighting the need for tax reform in the context of the digital economy and structural changes in the global economy [4][12]. Group 1: Innovation and Economic Growth - The article emphasizes that the current global economy is undergoing a profound structural transformation, driven by technological advancements in fields such as artificial intelligence and biotechnology, while facing challenges from de-globalization and geopolitical conflicts [4][12]. - The Nobel laureates' research reveals that innovation is not merely an external factor but an intrinsic driver of economic growth, challenging traditional economic paradigms [6][11]. - Mokyr's work highlights the importance of cultural and institutional factors in fostering innovation, suggesting that the Enlightenment period created a conducive environment for knowledge sharing and technological advancement [7][12]. Group 2: Theoretical Contributions - Aghion and Howitt's mathematical modeling of "creative destruction" provides a framework for understanding the dynamic process of innovation and its dual nature of incentivizing investment while potentially leading to over-competition [8][9]. - Their model illustrates the externalities of innovation, arguing that the social value of innovation often exceeds its private value, which justifies government intervention through subsidies and tax policies [9][10]. - The research indicates that innovation can lead to cyclical economic fluctuations, suggesting that while it is a source of growth, it can also result in periods of economic downturn [10][11]. Group 3: Policy Implications - The article stresses the need for a balanced policy approach to address the complexities of sustainable growth, emphasizing that technological progress must be aligned with institutional frameworks to mitigate issues like environmental degradation and social inequality [12][13]. - It warns that the current global economic landscape poses significant risks to innovation-driven growth, necessitating the maintenance of open knowledge networks and competitive market structures to sustain economic dynamism [13].