Core Viewpoint - The OPEC+ production increase plans are steadily advancing, with a persistent outlook of oversupply continuing to pressure the oil market [1][2]. Group 1: Production Plans - OPEC+ has initiated a recovery plan to restore voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd) starting in April 2025, with a subsequent joint reduction plan of 1.65 million bpd beginning in October 2025 [1][2]. - In October 2025, OPEC+ announced an increase of 137,000 bpd, with a further increase of the same amount planned for November [2][3]. Group 2: Market Impact - The accelerated pace of production increases, exceeding market expectations, has created a continuous bearish impact on the oil market, with cumulative production plans nearing 2.5 million bpd by September 2025 [2][3]. - The gradual increase in production by OPEC+ is expected to exacerbate supply-side pressures, leading to potential downward risks for medium to long-term oil prices [2][4]. Group 3: Discrepancies in Production - There is a growing disparity between planned and actual production increases, influenced by compensatory reductions from some oil-producing countries and capacity limitations [4][5]. - The actual production figures have often exceeded target production, leading to increased volatility in the oil market [4][5]. Group 4: Economic Context - The global oil market faces risks of sustained oversupply, compounded by weak energy demand and rising production expectations from other oil-producing countries, including the U.S. [5]. - Factors that previously supported oil prices, such as the de-escalation of international trade disputes and steady U.S. oil demand, have shifted, leading to bearish influences on the market [5].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【纯苯&苯乙烯周报】 原油弱势，纯苯苯乙烯跟随成本下行 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 国贸期货研究院 能源化工研究中心：陈胜 从业资格证号：F3066728 投资咨询证号：Z0017251 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 美国STDP 亚洲苯-甲苯 欧洲纯苯-甲苯 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 01/02 03/02 05/02 07/02 09/02 11/02 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 -600 -300 0 300 600 900 01/02 03/02 05/02 07/02 09/02 11/02 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 苯乙烯：原油供给增长，苯乙烯继续下行 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 偏空 | 检修期结束，苯乙烯供给增加。苯乙烯与石脑油 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The polyolefin futures are running weakly. In the spot market, some prices of linear LL from Sinopec were lowered by 100, and some from PetroChina were lowered by 50. For drawn PP, some prices from Sinopec were lowered by 50, while those from PetroChina remained stable. From a fundamental perspective, the market focuses more on the actual demand fulfillment in the medium - term and potential industrial policy changes on the supply side of polyolefins in the fourth quarter. With the continuation of China - US game on Friday, crude oil was under pressure, and in the short - term, polyolefin prices generally fluctuate passively following the cost side, with cautious market sentiment [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Prices and Changes**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7037, 7066, and 7124 respectively, with decreases of - 40, - 40, and - 34 compared to the day before the previous day, and declines of - 0.57%, - 0.56%, and - 0.47% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 6722, 6762, and 6782 respectively, with decreases of - 23, - 23, and - 25, and declines of - 0.34%, - 0.34%, and - 0.37% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Open Interest**: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 225133, 21799, and 186 respectively, and the open interests were 557868, 53285, and 427 respectively, with increases of 11563, 4180, and 119 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes were 251636, 14886, and 258 respectively, and the open interests were 634901, 109252, and 2775 respectively, with increases of 11295, 3625, and 170 respectively [2]. - **Spreads**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 29, - 58, and 87 respectively, compared to previous values of - 29, - 52, and 81. For PP, the current spreads were - 40, - 20, and 60 respectively, compared to previous values of - 40, - 22, and 62 [2]. Raw Materials and Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder materials, and plastic film were 2390 yuan/ton, 6470 yuan/ton, 532 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2293 yuan/ton, 6495 yuan/ton, 535 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6590 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton [2]. - **Spot Market**: In the LL spot market, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 7050 - 7600 yuan/ton, 7000 - 7250 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7650 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 8100 - 8250 yuan/ton, 7100 - 7600 yuan/ton, and 7050 - 7300 yuan/ton. In the PP spot market, the current price ranges were 6600 - 6700 yuan/ton, 6550 - 6650 yuan/ton, and 6550 - 6700 yuan/ton respectively, compared to previous ranges of 7250 - 7650 yuan/ton, 6650 - 6750 yuan/ton, and 6600 - 6750 yuan/ton [2]. Energy News - Oil prices dropped significantly on Friday. The settlement price of WTI crude oil futures for November 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $58.9 per barrel, the lowest since early May, down $2.61 from the previous trading day, a decline of 4.24%, with a trading range of $58.22 - $61.67. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for December 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $62.73 per barrel, the lowest since May 5, down $2.49 from the previous trading day, a decline of 3.82%, with a trading range of $62 - $65.36 [2].

Group 1: Investment Ratings - No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward trend before the National Day holiday is low. It is recommended to control positions [1]. - Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable for bond futures, but the central bank's short - term interest rate risk warning suppresses the upward trend [1]. - After the interest rate cut, the gold price is expected to fluctuate at a high level in the short - term, but there is still room for growth in the long - term [1]. Group 3: Summary by Variety Macro - Financial - **Stock Index**: Long - term bullish, but low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1]. - **Treasury Bonds**: Asset shortage and weak economy are favorable, but short - term rate risk warning by central bank suppresses rise [1]. Precious Metals - **Gold**: Short - term high - level oscillation, long - term upward potential [1]. - **Silver**: Short - term strong due to market sentiment [1]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Pressured by profit - taking after Fed rate cut, but expected to stabilize and rise with overseas easing and domestic demand [1]. - **Aluminum**: Pressured by profit - taking, but limited downside in consumption season [1]. - **Alumina**: Weak fundamentals but limited downside as price nears cost line [1]. - **Zinc**: Social inventory increase pressures price, but Sino - US relations may boost sentiment [1]. - **Nickel**: Short - term macro - dominated, may be strong, pay attention to supply and macro changes [1]. - **Stainless Steel**: Short - term oscillation, Sino - US relations may boost sentiment, pay attention to production [1]. - **Tin**: Potential low - buying opportunities in demand season [1]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Influenced by supply and market sentiment factors [1]. Energy - **Crude Oil**: Affected by US inventory, OPEC+ production plan, and Fed rate cut [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: Short - term follows crude oil, supply of raw material is sufficient [1]. Chemicals - **PTA**: Output increases, basis falls, downstream profit recovers [1]. - **Ethylene Glycol**: Basis strengthens, but new device and hedging pressure exist [1]. - **Short - fiber**: Factory devices return, delivery willingness weakens [1]. - **Benzene and Styrene**: Supply increases, import pressure rises [1]. - **Urea**: Limited upside due to weak demand, supported by cost [1]. - **PE**: Price oscillates weakly due to demand and maintenance [1]. - **PVC**: Oscillates weakly with supply pressure and high near - month warehouse receipts [1]. - **LPG**: Upward momentum is suppressed by OPEC production and inventory [1]. Agricultural Products - **Palm Oil**: May break through oscillation range due to supply disruption [1]. - **Soybean Oil**: Long - term bullish with de - stocking expectation, pay attention to Sino - US talks [1]. - **Rapeseed Oil**: Recommend 11 - 1 calendar spread strategy [1]. - **Cotton**: New crop is expected to be abundant, short - term supply may be tight [1]. - **Sugar**: Expected to oscillate weakly with limited downside [1]. - **Corn**: Expected to oscillate at the bottom, focus on new - crop price [1]. - **Soybean Meal**: Buy on dips, pay attention to Sino - US policy [1]. Others - **Paper Pulp**: Oscillates, focus on warehouse receipt cancellation after September delivery [1]. - **Logs**: Oscillates with stable spot price and falling foreign quotes [1]. - **Live Pigs**: Weak due to supply increase and limited downstream demand [1]. - **Shipping (Container Shipping to Europe)**: Freight rates are falling faster than expected [1].

Core Viewpoint - The Siam Cement Group's subsidiary, Long Son Petrochemicals (LSP), has restarted its petrochemical complex in Ho Chi Minh City after a year of shutdown, coinciding with a decline in crude oil prices that has reduced operational costs [1] Group 1: Company Developments - Long Son Petrochemicals is undertaking a $500 million renovation project expected to be completed by 2027 [1] - The total investment for the complex amounts to $5 billion, which began construction in 2018 and was scheduled to commence commercial operations in September 2024 [1] - The complex has an annual production capacity of 1.4 million tons of olefin resins, supplying raw materials for various industries including packaging, agriculture, electronics, and automotive [1] Group 2: Market Context - The restart of the complex is seen as an opportunity due to the drop in crude oil prices, which has allowed for a more favorable operational environment [1] - The initial production was halted just one month after launch due to rising costs and unprofitability [1]

Core Insights - The oil market is experiencing a phase of rising prices due to strong downstream demand and geopolitical factors, but recent data indicates potential downward pressure on prices [1][6] Group 1: OPEC+ Production Decisions - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day starting in September, effectively ending the voluntary production cuts that were set to last until November 2023, one year earlier than planned [2] - The production increase follows a gradual ramp-up, with OPEC+ increasing output by 180,000 barrels per day in May, 349,000 barrels per day in June, and 335,000 barrels per day in July [2] - The new production levels are expected to be absorbed by strong market demand during the consumption peak season [2] Group 2: U.S. Oil Market Dynamics - U.S. oil rig counts have been declining since April, but have stabilized around 411 rigs, with production holding steady at approximately 13.3 million barrels per day [2] - The EIA has revised U.S. oil production forecasts upward by 40,000 barrels per day to 13.41 million barrels per day [2] - Recent data shows an increase in U.S. crude oil inventories by 3.036 million barrels, contrary to expectations of a decrease [3] Group 3: Geopolitical Factors - Recent U.S.-Russia discussions have led to a temporary suspension of further sanctions against Russia, which is expected to stabilize Russian oil exports [4] - The geopolitical landscape appears to be easing, with potential future discussions involving U.S., Russia, and Ukraine leadership [4] Group 4: Supply and Demand Outlook - EIA forecasts indicate a significant increase in global oil inventories, with projections of over 2 million barrels per day in Q4 2025 and Q1 2026 [5] - Both EIA and IEA have adjusted their global oil supply growth forecasts upward, while demand growth estimates have been revised downward [5] - The overall sentiment in the oil market is bearish, with multiple factors contributing to a potential decline in oil prices [6]

Group 1 - International crude oil prices have recorded six consecutive declines, reaching the lowest level in nearly eight weeks, influenced by weak demand for gasoline and diesel, leading to a bearish fundamental outlook for domestic gasoline and diesel markets [1][3] - The second batch of Northeast gasoline and diesel collective procurement prices in August saw a decline, with 92 procurement price at 7720 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous period, and 0 diesel procurement price at 6600 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton [1] - Gasoline collective procurement prices remained stable above 7700 yuan/ton in July, but limited demand growth led to fluctuations in August, with prices initially rising before declining [1][3] Group 2 - In the external procurement market, gasoline 92 external procurement price was 7690 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan/ton, and 0 diesel external procurement price was 6690 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton [2] - The shipping market for gasoline and diesel has seen reduced trading activity, with total gasoline and diesel shipping transactions in Shandong decreasing by 6.2 million tons compared to the previous week, although diesel transactions showed some recovery [2] - The main transaction price range for domestic 92 gasoline shipping is between 7650-7850 yuan/ton, while 0 diesel shipping prices range from 6650-6840 yuan/ton, indicating a general decline in transaction prices [2] Group 3 - The short-term outlook for international crude oil remains weak, with bearish sentiment driven by supply risks diminishing due to upcoming US-Russia negotiations and OPEC+ production increases [3] - Refinery operating rates are slightly declining, but inventory risks are low, with gasoline demand expected to weaken seasonally, while diesel demand remains primarily driven by essential small orders [3] - The overall market sentiment is cautious, with speculative demand being limited, and the decline in collective procurement, external procurement, and shipping large order prices contributing to a bearish outlook for gasoline and diesel market prices [3]

Group 1 - WTI crude oil has decreased by 1%, currently priced at $65.27 per barrel [1] - Brent crude oil has fallen below $68 per barrel, with a daily decline of 0.66% [1]

Core Viewpoint - WTI crude oil prices have fallen below $71 per barrel, experiencing a daily decline of 3.93% [1] Group 1 - The drop in WTI crude oil prices indicates a significant market reaction, reflecting potential shifts in supply and demand dynamics [1] - The decline of 3.93% in a single day suggests increased volatility in the oil market, which may impact related sectors and investments [1]

Group 1 - The Chief Economic Advisor of India stated that the decline in crude oil prices could reduce the import bill, creating fiscal space and alleviating external economic pressures [1]