上交易日周三(1月7日)：国际黄金遇阻回落收跌，反弹动力减弱，但仍处于中轨和短期均线上方，多头 占据优势，并也是再度入场看涨的机会，不过临近周围重磅数据的公布，也需留意数据预期带来的利空 压力，要么待数据公布后或下周开盘再多，要么待数据公布显示利好后顺势跟进。 具体走势上，金价自亚市开于4495.54美元/盎司，先行录得日内高点4500.27美元，之后遇阻回落持续震 荡走低，延续至美盘时段，连续触底回升，并录得日内低点4423.39美元，就此有所触底回升，但又再 度陷入震荡，最终收于4456.29美元，日振幅76.88美元，收跌39.25美元，跌幅0.87%。 影响上，日内受到4500美元关口阻力获利了结，而先行回落走低，但由于支撑买盘，以及弱于预期 的"小非农"提振美联储降息预期，此外，亚洲大国央行在12月份连续第14个月增持黄金。加上地缘局势 的不确定性而最终收复部分失地。 展望今日周四(1月9日)：国际黄金微幅高开后震荡走盘，受到昨日的回落压力，以及美元指数连续反弹 走强的限制，不过前景上，金价仍具看涨动力，美元指数虽连续反弹，但也临近阻力，周图及月图仍处 于区间震荡之内，短期难以走出牛市性趋势，故此， ...

Core Insights - Platinum futures reached the daily limit on December 23, 2025, marking the fourth time since its listing and have increased over 50% since then [3][8] Group 1: Market Performance - The strong performance of platinum group metals continues, supported by overall sentiment in the precious metals sector and capital rotation [5][10] - The market has entered a phase of high volatility and sensitivity following significant price increases and new highs [10] Group 2: Economic Factors - Despite a slightly cautious tone from Federal Reserve Governor Milan, expectations for long-term monetary easing remain unchanged, contributing to the investment logic for precious metals including platinum and palladium [5][10] - Ongoing geopolitical uncertainties continue to provide a backdrop for the demand for precious metals [5][10] Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term forecasts suggest that platinum and palladium are likely to maintain a strong performance, but there is a need to be cautious of potential market corrections due to overheating sentiment and profit-taking [5][10]

Core Viewpoint - The prices of platinum and palladium futures have surged, driven by macroeconomic liquidity and tightening supply in the physical market, with platinum futures reaching 568.45 CNY per gram and palladium futures at 508.45 CNY per gram, marking increases of 6.99% and 7% respectively [1] Group 1: Macroeconomic Factors - The Federal Reserve's policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties are key supports for the price increases of platinum and palladium [1] - The U.S. labor market shows signs of downward risk, with the unemployment rate rising to 4.6%, the highest since 2021, which may further support the Fed's easing measures [2] - Inflation is gradually receding, with the core CPI falling to 2.6%, the lowest since March 2021, indicating a potential slowdown in consumer spending [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Platinum supply is expected to remain tight, with a projected supply gap of 46.4 tons by 2025, providing upward momentum for prices [3] - The palladium market has shifted to a state of oversupply, with expectations of a further increase in surplus to approximately 16.9 tons by 2026, which may exert downward pressure on prices [3] - The demand for platinum is supported by its applications in hydrogen energy and stable industrial uses, despite structural impacts from electric vehicle developments [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The current price increases of platinum and palladium reflect strong macroeconomic expectations, but there is a risk of rapid corrections if market sentiment shifts [3][4] - The ongoing adjustments in the EU regarding the ban on fuel vehicles may improve future demand expectations for platinum and palladium [2] - In the absence of clear negative factors, precious metals are expected to maintain strength in the short term, although their volatility remains relatively low [3]

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing weak fluctuations, maintaining levels near the highest point since October 21, driven by reduced demand for traditional safe-haven assets due to overall optimism in global stock markets [1][2] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The market's adjustment of expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's monetary policy continues to support gold prices, with the dollar index dropping to a two-month low, enhancing gold's appeal as a non-yielding asset [1] - Geopolitical uncertainties in certain regions are limiting the downside for gold, bolstering bullish sentiment [1] - The recent Federal Reserve monetary policy decision is a core driver of gold's price movements, with a 25 basis point rate cut expected in December and a forecast indicating only one more rate cut by 2026 [1] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold has confirmed a breakout from a two-week trading range, with resistance levels identified between $4245 and $4250, indicating a clear bullish signal [2] - The daily oscillators are in a positive range and not yet overbought, suggesting further upward potential for gold prices [2] - Support levels have shifted, with the previous resistance area now acting as potential support between $4220 and $4218, and further support at $4200 and the $4170-$4165 range [4] Group 3: Price Levels - The immediate resistance level for gold is at $4300, with potential to advance towards the $4328-$4330 range upon breaking this level [4] - Sustained upward momentum could challenge the historical high of $4380 set in October, with a confirmation of an upward trend if gold remains above the $4400 mark [4]

Core Viewpoint - International gold prices are experiencing fluctuations but are expected to strengthen further if they can break through current resistance levels [1][10]. Market Performance - On December 9, gold opened at $4190.42 per ounce, reached a low of $4170.19, and a high of $4221.09, closing at $4208.07, with a daily fluctuation of $50.9 and a gain of $17.65, or 0.42% [1][10]. Market Outlook - On December 10, gold opened strong, supported by buying interest and a weaker dollar index, but market movements are limited as investors await guidance from the Federal Reserve [2][12]. Influencing Factors - Factors such as potential tariff reductions by Trump, positive U.S. employment data, and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties are influencing gold prices. Optimism regarding future Fed rate cuts is providing support for gold despite a stronger dollar [4][12]. Analyst Insights - Analysts suggest that market caution ahead of the Fed's monetary policy meeting is keeping gold prices in a range. Expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut may lead to a temporary decline in gold prices post-announcement, but the long-term outlook remains bullish due to continued central bank gold purchases and geopolitical risks [5][14]. Technical Analysis - Monthly charts indicate a strong rebound in November, but December's momentum is weakening. Gold needs to break above $4400 to open further upside potential. Weekly indicators show reduced bullish momentum, while daily charts suggest a mixed outlook with key resistance at $4265 and support levels around $4200 and $4180 [7][16][17]. Trading Guidance - For trading, key support levels for gold are noted at $4200 and $4180, with resistance at $4230 and $4255. Silver support is at $60.40 and $59.40, with resistance at $61.50 and $62.00 [8][17].

Core Viewpoint - The international gold price is experiencing fluctuations and is currently positioned above the middle band of the Bollinger Bands, indicating potential for further upward movement, but it must break through the current trendline resistance to avoid a pullback [1][5]. Market Performance - On December 9, gold opened at $4190.42 per ounce, dipped to a low of $4170.19, and then rebounded to a high of $4221.09 before closing at $4208.07, marking a daily increase of $17.65 or 0.42% with a trading range of $50.9 [1][3]. Influencing Factors - Factors such as Trump's potential tariff reductions on high-priced goods and positive U.S. employment data have strengthened the dollar, putting pressure on gold prices. However, ongoing buying support and trader optimism regarding potential Fed rate cuts have limited the dollar's upward momentum, providing support for gold [3][5]. - Geopolitical uncertainties continue to drive safe-haven demand, further supporting gold prices [3]. Future Outlook - The market is currently cautious ahead of the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting, with expectations of a hawkish rate cut, which has led to a slight increase in the dollar index and a continuation of gold's fluctuating adjustments [5]. - It is anticipated that the Fed will cut rates by 25 basis points, but the focus will be on the dot plot and Powell's tone post-meeting, which may convey a hawkish signal to stabilize the dollar while maintaining flexibility for future actions [6]. Technical Analysis - Monthly analysis shows a strong rebound in November, recovering most of October's losses, which enhances the bullish outlook for future highs. However, December's momentum appears weaker, with a need to break above $4400 to open further upward space [6][8]. - Weekly indicators suggest a decrease in bullish momentum, but the main chart remains above the 5-10 week moving averages, indicating potential for renewed strength. Short-term support levels are being monitored for bullish entry points [8][10]. - Daily trends indicate that gold remains in a fluctuating pattern, with short-term advantages for bulls, but direction remains unclear. Key resistance levels are at $4265, while support is noted around $4200 or $4180 [10][11].

从技术结构来看，金价仍处区间震荡格局。下方支撑重点关注 4163–4164 区域，若被有效跌破，空头可 能尝试将价格推向 4100–4085 区域的技术密集带，该带包含 4 小时 200 周期 EMA 以及自 10 月下旬延 伸的上升趋势线。上方方面，4245–4250 区间仍是短线最重要阻力，一旦突破，有机会进一步测试 4277–4278，并向 4300 整数位延伸，这将被视为多头重新掌控主动的信号。 周四欧洲早盘，黄金整体呈弱势整理态势，价格稳定在 4200 美元下方。随着市场风险偏好升温、美元 在阶段低点附近出现企稳迹象，金价在双重因素影响下难以走出明确趋势。尽管没有出现快速下挫，但 在关键通胀数据即将公布之际，投资者普遍保持谨慎，周线低位一带的支撑仍是多空争夺的主要区域。 与此同时，对于美联储下周降息的预期持续升温，使得贵金属下方空间受到一定保护，整体呈现防守性 整理。 周四早盘，在欧美股市延续反弹的带动下，市场整体情绪偏向积极，黄金出现一定压力。美元指数自周 三低位反弹，进一步加大了金价上行的阻力。避险情绪减弱后，XAU/USD 短线有所回调，但仍稳在本 周低点上方，说明多头在关键支撑区域保持了一定 ...

Core Viewpoint - Gold prices are experiencing a stable upward trend, supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December and ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in Ukraine and the Middle East [1][2] Group 1: Federal Reserve and Economic Indicators - Market expectations for a December rate cut by the Federal Reserve have risen to approximately 80%, significantly higher than previous levels, following comments from several Fed officials [1] - New York Fed President John Williams indicated that short-term rate adjustments would not hinder the process of inflation reduction, while Fed Governor Christopher Waller noted that a weakening job market could prompt a 25 basis point cut in December [1][2] - Upcoming key economic data releases, including PPI, retail sales, and new home sales, may lead to adjustments in investor perceptions regarding the Fed's policy direction [2] Group 2: Geopolitical Tensions and Safe-Haven Demand - Renewed airstrikes by Russia on Kyiv and ongoing conflicts in Gaza have heightened regional tensions, sustaining demand for safe-haven assets like gold [1] - Despite stable performance in stock markets and other risk assets, some investors continue to favor holding gold, reflecting persistent safe-haven demand [1][2] Group 3: Technical Analysis and Market Dynamics - Gold prices found support at $4022, with technical indicators suggesting an upward trend, while resistance levels are identified at $4177–4180, $4200, and $4245 [2] - If gold stabilizes in the $4130–4132 range, bullish momentum may continue, although potential inflation rebounds could pressure gold prices [2] - The current market environment is characterized by a combination of policy expectations and geopolitical uncertainties, with gold's appeal as a risk hedge likely to remain strong [2]

Core Viewpoint - China Shipbuilding Defense (中船防务) has seen a significant stock price increase of over 5%, currently trading at 15.55 HKD, with a trading volume of 198 million HKD. This surge is influenced by recent data indicating a decline in global new ship orders, with China maintaining a dominant market share in new orders [1]. Group 1: Industry Overview - According to Clarkson Research, global new ship order volume in October was 2.91 million compensated gross tons (CGT), a 38% decrease from 4.71 million CGT in the same month last year [1]. - Chinese shipyards secured 98 new ship orders totaling 2.13 million CGT, capturing a 73% share of the global market, ranking first [1]. Group 2: Company Insights - According to a recent report by Zhongtai Securities, the uncertainty in geopolitical situations is expected to increase attention on the military industry sector [1]. - Shenwan Hongyuan noted that shipbuilding stocks are generally undervalued, with China Shipbuilding (中国船舶) and China Shipbuilding Defense (中船防务 H) holding order amounts of approximately 56 billion and 7 billion USD respectively, with market capitalization to order ratio at 0.65 and 0.36, indicating historical low levels [1]. - Previous analysis by Founder Securities highlighted that China Shipbuilding Defense is a major shipbuilding enterprise under China Shipbuilding Group and a core military production enterprise, with sufficient orders on hand and profitability expected to stabilize with the delivery of high-priced ships [1].

Group 1 - Gold prices reached historical highs, with London spot gold peaking at $3508.69 per ounce and COMEX gold futures at $3578.4 per ounce on September 2 [1][4] - A-share gold concept stocks saw significant investment interest, with companies like Western Gold experiencing substantial gains [2][8] - Analysts suggest that gold prices have further upside potential due to rising expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, geopolitical uncertainties, and concerns over the Fed's independence [3][10] Group 2 - International silver prices also surged, with London spot silver reaching $40.848 per ounce and COMEX silver futures hitting $41.995 per ounce [7] - The gold jewelry index increased by over 2%, with individual stocks like Western Gold and Laishen Tongling hitting their daily limit [8][9] - Analysts expect a strong performance for precious metals in the near term, supported by factors such as Fed rate cut expectations, increased geopolitical risks, and positive market sentiment following technical breakthroughs [10][11]