、+** 棉花周报|2025-10-09 国庆期间籽棉价格持稳运行，下游需求维持偏弱格局 关注四季度宏观政策，短期棉价或承压运行 摘要： 截至 10月07日 CRB 大宗商品价格指数小幅上涨，10月 07日收盘报 301.07 点，较 09 月 26 日累计下跌 3.96 点。09 月 30 日文华商品指数报 162.02，较 09 月 26 日下跌 1.78，跌幅为 1.09%。09 月 30 日，ICE 期棉主力 12 月合约报 64.39 美分/磅，较 09 月 26 日下跌 1.94 美分/磅，跌幅为 2.9%。截至 09 月 30 日当周郑棉主力 01 合约收盘报 13215 元/吨，较 09 月 26 日下跌 190 元/吨， 持仓累计增加 635 手，至 53.5 万手。 国庆假期前郑棉主力合约延续阴跌走势连续是个交易日收于阴线，价格最 低触及 13155 元/吨。本年度棉花丰产，农户对于籽棉的价格预期偏低，国庆 期价收购价格相对稳定，按照籽棉 6.1 元/公斤，棉籽 2.13 元/公斤，核算皮 棉成本大致在 14300 元/吨，考虑基差等因素与盘面价格依然有小幅倒挂。当 前处于收购前期，盘面实 ...

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for September 2025 is reported at 111.9 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 1.7%, indicating a stable overall operation in the commodity market [1][7] Price Index Overview - The non-ferrous price index rose to 131.8 points, with a month-on-month increase of 1.1% and a year-on-year increase of 5.7% [3] - The black metal price index decreased to 79.0 points, showing a month-on-month decline of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 0.7% [3] Price Changes by Commodity - Among 50 monitored commodities, 18 saw price increases in September, with notable rises in corrugated paper (6%), caustic soda (2.5%), and electrolytic copper (2.3%) [6] - Conversely, carbon lithium, urea, and corn starch experienced the largest declines, with month-on-month decreases of 5.5%, 4.3%, and 3.3% respectively [6] Sector Analysis - The mineral price index showed low volatility at 70.4 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 0.1% and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4% [8] - The energy price index slightly declined to 98.0 points, reflecting a month-on-month decrease of 0.7% and a year-on-year decrease of 5.4% [8] - The chemical price index continued its downward trend at 100.0 points, with a month-on-month decrease of 1.9% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.1% [8] Market Dynamics - Analysts noted that the recovery in demand during the peak season was generally below expectations, contributing to the fluctuations in the mineral price index [9] - The energy price index's decline was attributed to reduced gasoline demand post-summer and adverse weather affecting construction projects [9] - The chemical sector faced pressure from weak market demand and the introduction of new production capacities [9]

Core Insights - The China Commodity Price Index (CBPI) for August 2025 is reported at 111.7 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% and a year-on-year increase of 1.2% [1] - The index has shown a continuous month-on-month recovery for four consecutive months, indicating that policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and reducing competition are positively impacting production and business operations [1] Industry Analysis - The black goods price index has continued to rebound, reporting 79.7 points with a month-on-month increase of 2.2% and a year-on-year increase of 0.3% [1] - The energy price index has stopped its decline, reporting 98.7 points with a month-on-month increase of 2% but a year-on-year decrease of 8.4% [1] - The non-ferrous price index continues to rise, reporting 130.4 points with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 6.4% [1] - The agricultural products price index has slightly decreased, reporting 97.1 points with a month-on-month decrease of 0.8% and a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [1] - The chemical price index continues to decline, reporting 101.9 points with a month-on-month decrease of 1% and a year-on-year decrease of 11% [1] - The mineral price index continues to fall, reporting 70.5 points with a month-on-month decrease of 1.6% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.6% [1] Commodity Price Movements - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 25 (50%) saw price increases while 25 (50%) experienced price declines in August compared to July [2] - The top three commodities with the highest price increases were coke, neodymium oxide, and lithium carbonate, with month-on-month increases of 20.1%, 19.1%, and 16.6% respectively [2] - The top three commodities with the largest price declines were apples, methanol, and urea, with month-on-month decreases of 4.6%, 3.6%, and 2.8% respectively [2] Market Outlook - The industry anticipates a stable development trend in the commodity market as the traditional production peak season approaches in September and October [2] - However, global economic uncertainties remain, and some commodity prices are still at low levels, indicating that businesses face significant operational pressures [2] - To solidify the foundation for economic recovery, there is a need for enhanced macroeconomic regulation and effective measures to unleash domestic demand potential [2]

Core Viewpoint - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for August shows a continuous month-on-month increase for four consecutive months, indicating a stable growth trend in the commodity market and enhanced internal economic growth momentum [1][2]. Group 1: Commodity Price Index - The commodity price index for August is 111.7 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.3% [1]. - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 25 saw price increases in August, with notable rises in coke (20.1%), neodymium oxide (19.1%), and lithium carbonate (16.6%) [1]. - The black metal price index rose by 2.2%, while the non-ferrous metal price index increased by 0.2% [1]. Group 2: Sector Performance - The equipment manufacturing and high-tech manufacturing sectors continue to experience rapid growth, contributing to price recoveries in certain industries [1]. - The energy price index rebounded with a month-on-month increase of 2%, driven by peak summer energy demand and anti-involution policies [1]. - Conversely, the agricultural product price index decreased by 0.8%, and the chemical price index continued to decline by 1% [1]. Group 3: Market Outlook - According to industry experts, the ongoing effects of policies aimed at expanding domestic demand and countering involution are gradually enhancing corporate confidence and accelerating the transition of new and old growth drivers [2]. - The market demand is expected to continue expanding with the arrival of the traditional production peak in September and October, suggesting a stable and progressive development trend for the commodity market [2].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that the China Commodity Price Index has shown a month-on-month increase for three consecutive months, indicating optimistic expectations among enterprises and a stable recovery in the market [2] - In July, the overall Commodity Price Index reached 111.4 points, with a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1] - The black commodity price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index rose to 130.1 points, up 1.1% month-on-month [1] Group 2 - The agricultural price index fell to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, and the energy price index decreased to 96.7 points, down 0.6% month-on-month [1] - The chemical price index experienced a decline to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month, and the mineral price index continued to drop to 71.7 points, down 2.7% month-on-month [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 32 saw price increases while 18 experienced price declines in July [1] Group 3 - The overall outlook for the commodity market is expected to remain stable and positive, supported by government policies aimed at economic recovery and growth [2] - There are still external uncertainties and instabilities affecting global commodity prices, and some industries face challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increased operational pressures [2] - The commodity circulation industry plays a crucial role in stimulating domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting development [2]

Group 1 - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index for July was 111.4 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1] - In July, the black commodity price index rebounded to 77.9 points, up 1.7% month-on-month, while the non-ferrous price index continued to rise to 130.1 points, up 1.1% [1] - The agricultural price index fell to 97.9 points, down 0.2% month-on-month, and the energy price index decreased slightly to 96.7 points, down 0.6% [1] - The chemical price index peaked and then fell to 102.9 points, down 1.4% month-on-month, and the mineral price index continued to decline to 71.7 points, down 2.7% [1] - Among the 50 monitored commodities, 32 saw price increases while 18 experienced price declines in July [1] Group 2 - The continuous month-on-month positive growth of the commodity price index for three consecutive months indicates optimistic expectations among enterprises and a stable recovery in the market [2] - The implementation of the "anti-involution" policy and macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustment policies is expected to support a stable and positive outlook for the commodity market [2] - Despite the overall positive trend, challenges such as insufficient effective demand and increased operational pressures in certain industries remain [2] - The importance of the commodity circulation industry in stimulating domestic demand, stabilizing growth, and promoting development is emphasized for further economic recovery [2]

Core Insights - The article discusses the recent trends and developments in the financial market, highlighting the impact of economic policies and global events on investment strategies [2] Group 1: Economic Impact - The financial market has shown significant volatility due to changes in interest rates and inflation concerns, leading to a cautious approach among investors [2] - Recent data indicates a 5% increase in consumer spending, which may signal a potential recovery in the economy [2] Group 2: Investment Opportunities - Analysts suggest that sectors such as technology and renewable energy are poised for growth, with projected returns exceeding 10% over the next year [2] - The article emphasizes the importance of diversifying investment portfolios to mitigate risks associated with market fluctuations [2] Group 3: Market Trends - There has been a noticeable shift towards sustainable investing, with a 20% increase in funds allocated to ESG (Environmental, Social, and Governance) compliant companies [2] - The report highlights that mergers and acquisitions in the tech sector have surged by 15% compared to the previous year, indicating strong market confidence [2]

Core Insights - In July, China's bulk commodity price index reached 111.4 points, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 0.5%, indicating optimistic enterprise expectations and a stable market recovery [1] Industry Analysis - The black metal price index rebounded, while the non-ferrous price index continued to rise. Conversely, the agricultural product price index declined, energy prices slightly decreased, chemical prices experienced a pullback, and mineral prices continued to fall [1] Commodity Performance - Among the 50 monitored bulk commodities, 32 saw price increases while 18 experienced declines. The top three commodities with the highest price increases were lithium carbonate (up 10.2%), industrial silicon (up 9.8%), and coking coal (up 9.6%). The largest declines were observed in methanol (down 5%), cement (down 4.8%), and PTA (down 3.9%) [1] Market Outlook - The overall bulk commodity market is expected to continue its stable improvement due to the implementation of national policies aimed at reducing competition and enhancing macroeconomic counter-cyclical adjustments. However, global price volatility and external uncertainties remain significant challenges [1]

Macro News - The issuance of new local government special bonds has accelerated since April, with a record high of 616.936 billion yuan in July, an increase of 89.842 billion yuan from the previous month [1] - The cumulative issuance of new special bonds reached 2.16 trillion yuan in the first half of the year, a significant year-on-year increase of 45%, supporting major project construction and maintaining resilience in infrastructure investment growth [1] - The China Logistics and Purchasing Federation reported that the commodity price index rose for three consecutive months, reaching 111.4 points in July, a month-on-month increase of 0.5% [1] - Among 50 monitored commodities, 32 saw price increases, with lithium carbonate, industrial silicon, and coking coal rising by 10.2%, 9.8%, and 9.6% respectively [1] Industry News - The China Real Estate Industry Association announced measures to support the healthy development of small and medium-sized real estate companies, including reflecting policy demands, providing financial services, promoting sales, and improving supply chains [3] - The National Healthcare Security Administration is optimizing drug procurement measures, with 55 drugs proposed for inclusion in the national procurement range [3] - The paper industry is experiencing a price increase, with leading companies like Nine Dragons Paper and Lee & Man Paper announcing price hikes starting August 1, marking the fourth round of price increases since July [4] - Rising costs of raw materials, energy, and logistics are driving this price increase, which is seen as a response to the declining market conditions earlier this year [4] Sector Insights - CITIC Securities reports that the liquor industry is rapidly bottoming out, with leading companies likely to benefit from channel adjustments and market expansion as consumer demand gradually improves [5] - The beer industry is expected to maintain steady growth in sales, with an estimated revenue growth rate of 2%-5% [5] - China International Capital Corporation highlights the trend towards lightweight humanoid robots, which can enhance performance and safety through material and structural optimizations [5] - Huatai Securities expresses optimism about the commercial real estate sector, noting that top operators' shopping center assets exceed their book value, with C-REITs providing a clearer path for value realization [6]

Group 1 - China's service trade grew by 7.7% year-on-year in the first five months of this year [3] - Tax reductions and refunds for technological innovation and manufacturing exceeded 600 billion yuan in the first five months [4] - The cumulative trading volume of China's futures market increased by 17.82% in the first half of the year [6] Group 2 - The Shandong aircraft carrier's open activities in Hong Kong attracted nearly 20,000 visitors [7] - The first batch of offshore wind power project units, located at the farthest distance, has connected to the grid for power generation [6] - The international logistics park of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization in Lianyungang has completed a cumulative logistics volume of 365 million tons over ten years [6]