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002910,再次开盘涨停
第一财经· 2025-10-10 05:18
2025.10. 10 本文字数:1001,阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 | 第一财经 栾立 少有波动的乳业股"双节"后却有了新变化。今日在大消费概念带动下,庄园牧场(002910.SZ)连续 第二日开盘后涨停,乳业股也有不同程度的上涨。记者了解到,在今年双节市场备货的推动下,奶价 终现回升,市场也有回暖迹象,但持续性仍待观察。 今日开盘后,虽然大盘翻绿,但庄园牧场(002910.SZ)股价迅速涨停,带动乳业股整体上涨。截 至记者发稿时,骑士乳业(920786.BJ)上涨4.44%,新乳业上涨5.85%,多股上涨超过2%。 记者今日以投资者身份致电庄园牧场了解到,公司称其主营业务并未发生改变,连续涨停的原因或与 近期大消费板块整体转热有关。 国家农业农村部数据显示,全国主要原奶产区生鲜乳收购均价从8月的3.02元/公斤,回升至最新9月 第四周的3.04元/公斤,数据上开始止跌企稳。另据河北部分受访奶农介绍,合同牧场价格虽然还没 有变化,但散奶的价格在双节前有较快的回升,从2.5元/公斤回升至4.2元/公斤,供给还比较紧俏。 宁夏散奶价格也从2.1元/公斤升至3.5元至3.7元/公斤。 此前行业认为双节后原奶供需会 ...
002910,再次开盘涨停
Di Yi Cai Jing Zi Xun· 2025-10-10 04:56
2025.10.10 本文字数:1001,阅读时长大约5分钟 作者 |第一财经 栾立 微信编辑| 苏小 第一财经持续追踪财经热点。若您掌握公司动态、行业趋势、金融事件等有价值的线索,欢迎提供。专 用邮箱:bianjibu@yicai.com 庄园牧场属于西北地区区域乳企,2023年上半年实现收入4.2亿元,同比减少1.3%,实现归母净利润-0.3 亿元,同比增长68.5%。 今年上半年,在经历了连续2年的下滑之后,国内主要乳企的业绩都有不同程度触底的迹象,业内对今 年下半年行业复苏也有较大的期许。"双节"也是乳制品消费的传统旺季,记者了解到,从原奶端反馈 看,双节的情况比往年有回暖的迹象。 国家农业农村部数据显示,全国主要原奶产区生鲜乳收购均价从8月的3.02元/公斤,回升至最新9月第 四周的3.04元/公斤,数据上开始止跌企稳。另据河北部分受访奶农介绍,合同牧场价格虽然还没有变 化,但散奶的价格在双节前有较快的回升,从2.5元/公斤回升至4.2元/公斤,供给还比较紧俏。宁夏散 奶价格也从2.1元/公斤升至3.5元至3.7元/公斤。 此前行业认为双节后原奶供需会逐步恢复,市场将持续回暖。机构研报认为,中秋国庆 ...
庄园牧场再次开盘涨停 行业触底复苏也有新苗头
Di Yi Cai Jing· 2025-10-10 04:39
少有波动的乳业股"双节"后却有了新变化。今日在大消费概念带动下,庄园牧场(002910.SZ)连续第 二日开盘后涨停,乳业股也有不同程度的上涨。记者了解到,在今年双节市场备货的推动下,奶价终现 回升,市场也有回暖迹象,但持续性仍待观察。 今年上半年,在经历了连续2年的下滑之后,国内主要乳企的业绩都有不同程度触底的迹象,业内对今 年下半年行业复苏也有较大的期许。"双节"也是乳制品消费的传统旺季,记者了解到,从原奶端反馈 看,双节的情况比往年有回暖的迹象。 国家农业农村部数据显示,全国主要原奶产区生鲜乳收购均价从8月的3.02元/公斤,回升至最新9月第 四周的3.04元/公斤,数据上开始止跌企稳。另据河北部分受访奶农介绍,合同牧场价格虽然还没有变 化,但散奶的价格在双节前有较快的回升,从2.5元/公斤回升至4.2元/公斤,供给还比较紧俏。宁夏散 奶价格也从2.1元/公斤升至3.5元至3.7元/公斤。 此前行业认为双节后原奶供需会逐步恢复,市场将持续回暖。机构研报认为,中秋国庆期间,乳制品需 求迎来小高峰,原奶供需平衡也有望带动乳企竞争趋缓。 今日开盘后,虽然大盘翻绿,但庄园牧场(002910.SZ)股价迅速涨停, ...
上证指数时隔10年再上3900点
Shen Zhen Shang Bao· 2025-10-09 22:50
沪指收盘上涨1.32%,沪深北三市合计成交额26723亿元 深圳商报记者 钟国斌 10月9日,A股市场强势上攻,上证指数突破3900点整数关。这也是自2015年8月以来,上证指数再次突 破3900点,创10年来新高。 截至收盘,沪指报3933.97点,上涨1.32%;深证成指报13725.56点,上涨1.47%;创业板指报3261.82 点,上涨0.73%。沪深北三市合计成交额26723亿元。 消息面上,外资持续加码中国资产。高盛数据显示,8月以来中国股票成为Prime业务中净买入最多的市 场,超90%外资机构计划增仓中国股市。 据记者统计,自去年9月以来,A股市场开启新一轮牛市行情,上证指数从2690点涨至3933点,累计涨 幅达46%;创业板指数涨幅超过100%。政策支持、资金流入及市场信心提升是主要推动因素。 节后A股迎来开门红,10月行情将如何运行? 历史数据显示,2010年至2024年,15年间上证指数10月份平均涨幅为1.10%,其中有8次上涨,即10月 份上涨概率为53.33%,仅次于2月份约七成的上涨概率。 例如,2010年、2014年、2024年出现了"金九银十"行情,其中A股牛市期10月份 ...
程强:三季度成长板块领涨市场
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-10-01 05:30
程强系德邦证券研究所所长、首席经济学家、中国首席经济学家论坛理事 PART.01 市场概览 2025年9月30日周二,A股市场震荡分化上行,科技股维持强势;30年期国债期货新低后反弹收涨;期货 分化明显,黄金领涨,焦煤领跌。 PART.02 市场行情分析 1)股票市场:三季度收官,创业科创均涨约50% 市场震荡上行。今日作为国庆中秋双节前最后一个交易日,A股市场呈现分化上行格局。上证指数收涨 0.52%,报3882.78点;创业板指收平、科创50收涨1.69%,二者盘中均再创年内新高。全市场成交额约 2.20万亿,较前一交易日略有放量,但较9月25日(2.39万亿)、23日(2.52万亿)等近期高位有所回 落,显示节前部分资金趋于谨慎,兑现获利需求显现。从月度情况看,9月成交额整体维持在2万亿元以 上,市场流动性充裕,支撑结构性行情展开。 节前最后一日,风格有所分化。今日成长板块延续强势,金融等防御性板块表现承压,半导体(存储芯 片涨价催化)、锂电设备(固态电池产业化提速)等表现突出,反映资金对科技成长赛道的持续关注; 周期板块方面,美联储降息后金、铜商品价格均表现强势,且9月PMI回升至49.8%创近6个月 ...
三季度成长板块领涨市场
Tebon Securities· 2025-09-30 13:24
Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a mixed upward trend, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices both rising approximately 50% in the third quarter, indicating strong investor preference for technology growth sectors [6][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 0.52% to 3882.78 points, while the overall market turnover was about 2.20 trillion yuan, reflecting cautious profit-taking behavior ahead of the holidays [6][12] - The technology sector, particularly semiconductor and lithium battery equipment, continued to attract significant capital, while defensive sectors like finance faced pressure [6][12] Bond Market - The bond market saw a rebound after reaching new lows, with the 10-year and 30-year treasury futures closing at 107.845 yuan and 113.90 yuan, respectively, indicating a stable short-term sentiment [9][10] - The overall funding environment was loose, with the 7-day Shibor rate declining by 11.8 basis points to 1.41%, suggesting a balanced supply-demand situation for funds [9][10] Commodity Market - The commodity market displayed significant divergence, with precious metals like gold and silver showing strong upward trends, while black metals faced notable declines [10][11] - The South China Commodity Index fell by 0.75%, with energy and black products experiencing substantial drops, indicating a shift in market focus from policy expectations to actual policy effects [10][11] Trading Hotspots - Key investment themes include precious metals driven by central bank purchases and Federal Reserve rate cuts, artificial intelligence due to accelerated capital expenditures by tech giants, and domestic chip production driven by technological breakthroughs [11][12] - The report suggests a potential shift in market style from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation," with continued strong performance expected from specific segments within the technology sector [12]
策略点评:多线共振,深成指创阶段新高
Tebon Securities· 2025-09-29 13:42
Market Analysis - The A-share market showed a slight increase with active performance in non-bank and non-ferrous sectors, leading to a new high in the Shenzhen Component Index [2][5] - The market is expected to maintain a slow bull pattern, driven by strong performance in the technology sector and supportive policies in the power equipment and non-ferrous metal sectors [5] - The overall trading volume in the A-share market reached 2.18 trillion yuan, slightly up from 2.17 trillion yuan the previous day [5] Bond Market - The bond market experienced a general decline, with the 30-year treasury futures dropping by 0.47% [6] - The funding environment remained stable, with the overnight SHIBOR down by 0.15 basis points to 1.3111% [6] - The People's Bank of China conducted a 288.6 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation, maintaining liquidity in the market [6] Commodity Market - Precious metals, particularly silver, reached new highs, with Shanghai silver up by 3.9% [8] - The black coal sector faced significant declines, with coking coal down by 5.0% [8] - The gold-silver ratio is gradually recovering, indicating potential upward pressure on silver prices [8] Investment Opportunities - Key investment themes include precious metals due to central bank purchases and anticipated Fed rate cuts, as well as sectors like artificial intelligence and domestic chips driven by technological advancements [10] - The report suggests a shift in market style from "technology-led" to "balanced allocation," with a focus on strong sub-sectors within technology and dividend stocks [11] - Long-term prospects for precious and non-ferrous metals remain positive due to global liquidity conditions [11]
节前短期波动加大,不改市场向好趋势
Yin He Zheng Quan· 2025-09-28 06:21
Core Insights - The report indicates that despite short-term fluctuations before the holiday, the overall market trend remains positive, with structural opportunities in sectors like technology and new energy [1][2][38]. Market Overview - During the week of September 22 to September 26, the A-share market experienced a slight upward trend, with the overall index rising by 0.25%. The STAR 50 index led the gains with an increase of 6.47%, while the ChiNext index rose nearly 2%. However, the Northbound 50 and CSI 1000 indices recorded declines [2][4]. - The market displayed significant structural volatility, with hotspots focusing on semiconductors, new energy, and non-ferrous metals [4][8]. Fund Flow - The trading activity in the A-share market saw a decrease, with an average daily turnover of 23,132 billion yuan, down by 2,046.53 billion yuan from the previous week. The average turnover rate was 1.9084%, a decrease of 0.35 percentage points [13][15]. - Northbound capital's average daily turnover was 2,917.83 billion yuan, down by 203.84 billion yuan from the previous week. The margin trading balance increased to 24,443.17 billion yuan, up by 461.73 billion yuan [15][21]. Valuation Changes - As of September 26, the overall A-share index's PE (TTM) valuation rose by 0.1% to 22.12 times, placing it at the 88.75 percentile since 2010. The PB (LF) valuation increased by 0.12% to 1.80 times, at the 48.55 percentile [30][34]. - The report highlights that 20 out of 31 primary industries have PE valuations above the 50th percentile since 2010, indicating a generally high valuation environment [33][34]. Investment Outlook - The report suggests that the market is expected to experience a key window period with the upcoming 20th Central Committee's Fourth Plenary Session focusing on the "14th Five-Year Plan." This could enhance market risk appetite [38][39]. - Key investment themes include: - New quality productivity: Emphasizing technology self-reliance and supporting companies with genuine technological barriers [39]. - Anti-involution policies: Encouraging companies to focus on product value and service quality, leading to better resource allocation [39]. - Consumer sector: The expansion of domestic demand policies is anticipated to boost the consumer sector [39]. - Major infrastructure projects: Accelerated construction of significant projects is expected to drive related industry growth [39].
贾云峰:小县城撬动大消费,以“情绪消费”重塑县域经济新范式
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-26 02:18
过去四十余年,中国经济的腾飞建立在"世界工厂"的基石之上,投资与出口是拉动增长的双翼。然而, 随着全球化红利期高峰已过、内部要素成本上升、以及宏观经济迈向高质量发展新阶段,"投资-出 口"驱动模式边际效应递减。与此同时,拥有14亿人口的庞大国内市场,其蕴藏的巨大消费潜能正以前 所未有的力量喷薄而出。 2025年国务院政府工作报告明确提出,"完善县域商业体系,促进城乡融合发展",标志着县域经济高质 量发展进入新阶段,把消费作为从根本上破解县域困境的有力抓手。"大消费"是一种涵盖实物消费、服 务消费、数字消费、情绪消费的全面性、多层次、高品质的消费形态,逐步成为中国经济行稳致远 的"压舱石"和"新引擎"。《情绪地理学:新商业模式的国家叙事与县域经济觉醒》(刘磊、贾云峰著) 指出:"未来的县域发展,不应只看GDP增长,更要关注共情价值;不应只看重物质投入,更要看重情 绪价值。"作为大消费的重要组成部分,"情绪消费能力"是县域经济的重要竞争力,把县域打造成为"情 绪热土",是一场关乎国家整体现代化进程的战略抉择。 一、 深度剖析:大消费是必然趋势与发展新逻辑 在全面建成小康社会后,社会主要矛盾已经转化为"人民日益增长 ...
高位震荡分化格局延续
Tebon Securities· 2025-09-25 14:34
[Table_Main] 证券研究报告 | 策略点评 2025 年 09 月 25 日 策略点评 证券分析师 程强 资格编号:S0120524010005 邮箱:chengqiang@tebon.com.cn 翟堃 资格编号:s0120523050002 邮箱:zhaikun@tebon.com.cn 高嘉麒 资格编号:S0120523070003 邮箱:gaojq@tebon.com.cn 研究助理 相关研究 高位震荡分化格局延续 资料来源:Wind,德邦研究所 1)股票市场:高位震荡,宁德时代市值超越贵州茅台 高位震荡,创业板领涨。今日 A 股市场呈现结构性分化特征,1474 家上涨、3875 家下跌。创业板指延续强势表现,全天上涨 1.58%至 3235.76 点,再创阶段新高; 上证指数微跌 0.01%,收于 3853.30 点。市场成交保持活跃,全天成交额 2.39 万 亿,较前一交易日小幅放量。 宁德时代市值超越茅台。行业层面,科技成长板块走强,服务器、半导体硅片、铜 产业、核聚变等板块领涨,周期类板块表现低迷,家电、煤炭、银行等板块跌幅居 前,市场呈现"科技权重搭台、题材唱戏"的格局。个股层面, ...