2）分渠道：25H1 电商收入增长 7%至 43 亿（占比29%），电商直营流水实现高单位数增长。线下直营 收入下滑 3%至 34 亿元（占比23%），加盟收入增长 4%至 69 亿元（占比47%）。 机构：招商证券 研究员：刘丽/王梓旭 25H1 公司收入增长3%，利润下滑11%；其中跑步品类保持良好增长，公司会持续优化渠道结构，坚定 对奥运等营销资源的投入，管理层保持2025 年收入持平，净利润率高单位数指引；预计2025-2027 年净 利润规模分别为23.8 亿元、25.3 亿元、27.2 亿元，同比增速为-21%、7%、7%，当前股价对应 25PE20X，维持强烈推荐评级。 收入稳健，利润下滑：公司收入同比增长3.3%至148.17 亿元，净利润同比下降11%至17.37 亿元；业绩 表现相对稳健，董事会建议宣派中期股息每股33.59 分，派息率50%。 1）分品类：25H1 跑步和综训流水均取得 15%的增长，专业跑鞋在上半年销量突破 1400 万双，超轻、 赤兔、飞电三大核心 IP 销量突破 526 万双。篮球下跌 20%。细分领域中羽毛球收入占比已达 7%左 右，同时积极拓展匹克球、网球等品类 ...

证券研究报告 | 公司点评 | 服装家纺 中报超预期，期待奥运为代表的专业资源发力 ——李宁点评报告 投资要点 ❑ 25 中报：跑步、综训继续领跑，费用控制良好带动利润表现超预期 25H1 公司零售流水同比+2%，其中跑步 同比+15%、综训同比+15%，篮球 同比-20%，休闲同比-7%，跑步与综训继续领跑。 25H1 报表收入 148.2 亿（同比+3.3%），其中电商增长 7.4%继续领跑，批发 收入增长 4.5%（剔除专业渠道发货下降小单位数），直营收入下降 3.4%。 25H1 毛利率 50.0%（同比-0.4pp），来自 DTC 占比下降、直营折扣加深；销 售费用率 29.0%（同比-1.2pp），是利润超预期的主要来源，费用率下降与渠道效 率优化、直营占比降低有关；广宣投入增加在上半年还未明显体现（仅从 12.5 亿到 13.4 亿），预计奥运相关费用对利润影响在下半年较为明显；管理费用率 5.2%（同比+0.5pp），增加与凯胜商誉减值 7239 万元有关；其他收入及收益 9390 万元，去年同期 1.8 亿，主要与投资性房地产减值 1.06 亿有关，营业利润 24.4 亿（+1.5%），营业 ...

机构：国盛证券 研究员：杨莹/侯子夜/王佳伟 ① 线下业务：专业渠道发货带动批发业务营收增长，直营渠道门店调整导致营收下滑。2025H1 李宁牌 批发业务营收同比增长5%至64.8亿元，直营渠道营收同比下降4%至32.3 亿元，我们判断期内批发业务 增速较快，部分原因系专业渠道发货贡献所致，而针对直营渠道公司继续对低效店铺进行关停整改，以 提升盈利能力，截止2025H1 李宁成人装直营/批发门店数量较年初分别-19/+1 至1278/4821 家。展望 2025 年，考虑到消费环境的不确定性我们预计2025 年直营业务或仍将处于调整阶段，与此同时下半年 由于多节假日是鞋服销售旺季，批发拓店力度环比上半年有望加大，同时专业渠道发货仍将继续带动批 发业务增长。 ① 电商业务：销售增速优异，运营情况健康。2025H1 电商业务直营流水同比增长高单位数，李宁上半 年电商表现仍优于线下。从经营质量来看，面对相对激烈的市场竞争，李宁上半年电商零售折扣同比加 深约1pcts，电商库存周转维持在健康水准。 2）产品端：立足专业运动定位，围绕消费者需求，提升产品竞争力。 2025H1 李宁成人流水同比增长2%，其中跑步/综训/ ...

Core Insights - Li Ning reported a revenue of 14.817 billion yuan for the first half of 2025, representing a year-on-year growth of 3.3% [1] - The footwear segment continues to grow, with badminton products achieving a structural breakthrough, supported by a strategic partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee (COC) [1] Footwear and Badminton Segment - Footwear revenue reached 8.231 billion yuan, up 4.9% year-on-year, accounting for 55.6% of total revenue, marking a 0.9 percentage point increase from the previous year [2] - The "超䨻" technology has been fully applied to core categories like running and basketball shoes, leading to significant product innovations [2] - The "越影5PRO" running shoe features a midsole bounce ratio of 10.8, balancing cushioning and rebound performance [2] - Total sales of three core running shoe IPs exceeded 5.26 million pairs, with the "飞电" family achieving an energy return rate of 89% after upgrading to the "超䨻" midsole [2] - The basketball shoe "ULTRALIGHT2025" has sold over 100,000 pairs since its launch, aided by marketing strategies [2] Apparel and Equipment - Apparel revenue was 5.193 billion yuan, accounting for 35% of total revenue, down 3.4% year-on-year [3] - Equipment and accessories revenue surged by 23.7% to 1.393 billion yuan, making it the fastest-growing segment [3] - The badminton category has transitioned from "apparel-driven" to "professional equipment-led," with a focus on technology and research [3] Strategic Partnerships and Marketing - The partnership with COC is seen as a long-term strategic move rather than a short-term marketing tactic, aimed at building brand professionalism [4] - Li Ning has made significant adjustments to its retail presence, enhancing consumer recognition of its partnership with COC [4] - The company is preparing for major upcoming events like the 2028 Olympics and 2026 Winter Olympics, aligning product development and marketing strategies accordingly [5] Channel and Sales Performance - As of June 30, the total number of Li Ning sales points was 7,534, with a slight net decrease but improved operational efficiency [6] - Online sales reached 4.3 billion yuan, growing 7.4% year-on-year, and accounting for 29% of total revenue [6] - The integration of online and offline channels has led to increased brand visibility and sales performance [6]

Summary of Li Ning Company Conference Call Company Overview - **Company**: Li Ning Company - **Date**: July 16, 2025 Key Points Industry Performance - June sales showed a month-on-month decline, with both online and offline channels experiencing negative growth due to base effects, holidays, and weather conditions [2][3] - Discounts deepened in Q2, particularly in e-commerce, impacting direct wholesale channels [2][4] - Overall gross margin faced challenges in the first half of the year, making it difficult to maintain flat margins for the entire year [2][4] Product Performance - Functional products outperformed lifestyle products, with running and fitness categories achieving double-digit growth in H1 2025, while basketball and lifestyle categories performed poorly, particularly basketball sales [2][5] - The growth in H1 was primarily driven by professional categories, with footwear performing better than apparel [2][5] - Key running shoe IPs such as "Ultra Light," "Chi Tu," and "Fei Dian" met expectations, with "Fei Dian" and "Chi Tu" performing well, while "Ultra Light" showed weaker performance [2][5] Strategic Partnerships - Li Ning signed a long-term contract with Yang Hanshen in 2023, planning to quickly launch related products during key competition periods [2][6] - No signature shoe plans currently exist, but future consideration will depend on performance, alongside enhanced personal marketing efforts [2][7] Marketing and Branding - The company is focusing on Olympic-related marketing, with the "Rong Rong Yao" series as a direct product line for the Olympics [3][7] - Future product launches will include more technology-enhanced products, expanding into other functional categories and lifestyle areas [3][7] Retail and Distribution - Approximately 100 new children's clothing stores are planned for this year, primarily targeting mid-to-low tier markets [3][9] - The number of outlet stores remains stable at around 400, with no large-scale openings planned [3][9][10] - E-commerce growth was only in the mid-single digits in Q2, falling short of expectations due to the impact of the 618 shopping festival [3][12] Financial Outlook - The company maintains guidance for flat revenue and a high single-digit net profit margin for 2025, but faces significant challenges in the second half due to weak terminal trends and intense competition [3][29] - Future plans include gradually accelerating revenue growth over the next 3-5 years, aiming for a net profit margin of at least 10% [3][29] Competitive Landscape - The company acknowledges ongoing competition from international brands like Nike, which still holds the largest market share [3][17] - Domestic brands have made significant progress in operations, technology, and design, narrowing the gap with international competitors [3][17] Cost Management - Marketing expenses are expected to rise due to Olympic sponsorship and athlete endorsements, with the marketing expense ratio projected to increase from 9.5% to a low double-digit level [3][18] - Human resource costs are also anticipated to rise slightly due to team expansion and talent acquisition [3][19] Future Strategies - The company plans to optimize store locations to control rental costs and enhance same-store sales [3][21][22] - Product assortments will be adjusted based on market tier and store type to capture business opportunities effectively [3][23][24] Segment Growth Potential - The running category is projected to maintain a 30% share of overall business, with future growth opportunities balanced against risks associated with over-reliance on a single category [3][26][28] This summary encapsulates the key insights from the Li Ning Company conference call, highlighting the current performance, strategic initiatives, and future outlook within the competitive landscape of the sportswear industry.

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company's Q2 revenue growth is slightly slower than Q1 but meets expectations, with a small single-digit increase across all platforms [1] - The company has signed a formal agreement with the Chinese Olympic Committee, becoming the official sportswear partner for the Chinese Olympic team from 2025 to 2028, with marketing efforts expected to ramp up starting in May [3] - The company anticipates increased resource investment in professional research and sports sponsorships, aiming for long-term positioning in the sports market [4] Revenue and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are estimated at 28.87 billion, 30.32 billion, and 31.75 billion CNY, reflecting year-on-year growth of 0.7%, 5.0%, and 4.7% respectively [4] - The forecasted net profit for the same years is 2.36 billion, 2.81 billion, and 3.22 billion CNY, with a significant drop of 22% in 2025 followed by recoveries of 19% and 15% in the subsequent years [4] Product Performance - In Q2, the running and cross-training categories continue to lead with high single-digit growth, while the basketball category faced a 20% decline [2] - The company is expected to gradually enrich its product offerings related to basketball, especially with the promotion of the "Yushua" series shoes following Yang Hansheng's selection for the NBA [2] Marketing and Sponsorship - The company has initiated its Olympic marketing strategy with the launch of the "Glory" series products, and further marketing activities are anticipated with upcoming events like the Chengdu World Games and the Milan Winter Olympics [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5] Core Views - The company's retail revenue for Q2 2025 showed low single-digit year-on-year growth, consistent with Q1 performance. Offline channels experienced a low single-digit decline, while e-commerce channels grew at a mid-single-digit rate [2][3] - The running and fitness categories continue to outperform, with expected high single-digit growth in revenue for Q2. Basketball remains under pressure, while outdoor and badminton categories are growing rapidly [2][3] - The company is focusing on a stable store strategy, with a net decrease of 18 stores to 6099 by June 30. The company plans to maintain steady expansion in store numbers throughout the year [2][3] - Marketing efforts will focus on themes related to Yang Hansheng and the Olympics, aiming to boost sales in the basketball category and enhance brand recognition [3] Financial Summary - Projected revenue growth for 2025-2027 is 1.7%, 5.3%, and 4.5%, reaching 29.15 billion, 30.69 billion, and 32.07 billion yuan respectively. Net profit is expected to decline by 12.6% in 2025, followed by growth of 6.6% and 6.1% in the subsequent years [3][4] - The company’s earnings per share (EPS) is projected to be 1.02, 1.09, and 1.15 yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios of 14.65, 13.75, and 12.96 [4][12] - The company maintains a healthy inventory level despite a challenging consumption environment [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that Li Ning's overall retail revenue for Q2 2025 showed low single-digit growth year-on-year, with offline and e-commerce channels experiencing low single-digit decline and mid-single-digit growth respectively [1] - As of the end of Q2 2025, Li Ning's main brand store count reached 6,099, with a net increase of 11 stores compared to the previous quarter, but a net decrease of 18 stores compared to the end of the previous year [2] - The company signed NBA player Yang Hansheng, which is expected to boost basketball category sales, as basketball sales declined by 20% year-on-year in Q2 2025 [2] Group 2 - Li Ning plans to increase marketing and R&D investments related to the Olympics and technology in the second half of 2025 and into 2026, following its partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [3] - The company deepened discounts in Q2 2025 to drive sales, and inventory levels improved with a sales-to-inventory ratio of around 4 months [3] - Profit forecasts for 2025-2027 have been adjusted downwards, with net profits revised to 2.31 billion, 2.60 billion, and 2.93 billion respectively, while maintaining a "buy" rating based on long-term brand development potential [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for Li Ning [1][6][25] Core Views - Li Ning's second quarter performance aligns with expectations, with overall channel revenue showing low single-digit growth, while offline channels experienced a decline [6] - The company is actively managing risks in a challenging retail environment, with a focus on long-term stability [6] - Marketing efforts are expected to increase due to the endorsement of NBA player Yang Hanshen and the partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee [6] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Revenue projections for Li Ning are as follows: - 2023: 276 billion RMB - 2024: 287 billion RMB - 2025E: 288 billion RMB - 2026E: 301 billion RMB - 2027E: 312 billion RMB - Net profit forecasts are: - 2023: 31.9 billion RMB - 2024: 30.1 billion RMB - 2025E: 24.8 billion RMB - 2026E: 26.4 billion RMB - 2027E: 27.8 billion RMB - The expected PE ratios are 12 for 2023, 12 for 2024, 15 for 2025, 14 for 2026, and 13 for 2027 [5][6][16] Company Performance Insights - The inventory level is healthy, with a stock-to-sales ratio of approximately 4 months, although discount rates are under pressure due to weak industry demand [6] - Running and fitness categories are leading growth, while basketball products are experiencing a decline of over 20% [6] - The number of sales points for Li Ning (excluding Li Ning Young) is 6099, with a net increase of 11 stores in the second quarter [6] - The company plans to continue opening new stores in the second half of the year, maintaining its annual store opening plan [6]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The company is expected to face challenges in sales in the second half of the year, with discounts and gross margins likely under pressure. However, the partnership with the Chinese Olympic Committee is anticipated to enhance long-term brand development [7] - The company plans to increase marketing and R&D investments related to the Olympics and technology in the second half of the year [7] - The company has deepened discounts to boost sales, and inventory levels have improved, with a good inventory control [7] Financial Forecasts - Total revenue (in million RMB) is projected to be 27,598 in 2023, 28,676 in 2024, 28,834 in 2025, 30,529 in 2026, and 32,074 in 2027, with year-on-year growth rates of 6.96%, 3.90%, 0.55%, 5.88%, and 5.06% respectively [1] - Net profit attributable to the parent company (in million RMB) is forecasted to be 3,187 in 2023, 3,013 in 2024, 2,313 in 2025, 2,598 in 2026, and 2,926 in 2027, with year-on-year changes of -21.58%, -5.46%, -23.24%, 12.31%, and 12.64% respectively [1] - The latest diluted EPS is expected to be 1.23 in 2023, 1.17 in 2024, 0.89 in 2025, 1.00 in 2026, and 1.13 in 2027 [1] - The P/E ratios are projected to be 11.85 for 2023, 12.54 for 2024, 16.33 for 2025, 14.54 for 2026, and 12.91 for 2027 [1]