下游逢低补货，尿素震荡为主 银河期货研究所 化工研究组：张孟超 投资咨询资格证号：Z0017786 从业资格号：F03086954 2025年11月 银河能化微信公众号 目录 第一章 综合分析与交易策略 第二章 基本面数据 GALAXY FUTURES 1 1、概述 上周观点：下游低价补货，现货窄幅反弹 GALAXY FUTURES 2 本周观点：下游高价抵制，出厂价弱势运行 周末至今，随着出厂价连续上调，市场情绪表现降温，主流地区尿素现货出厂报价弱稳，成交乏力。山东地区主流出厂报价弱稳，市场情绪 表现降温，工业复合肥开工率下滑，原料库存充裕，成品库存偏高，基层订单稀少，刚需补货为主，农业刚需采购，贸易商开始出货，新单 成交清淡，个别工厂降价收单，但成交稀少，预计出厂报价弱稳为主；河南地区市场情绪偏弱，出厂报价跟涨，贸易商出货，收单量减少， 成交一般，待发消耗，预计出厂报价弱势运行为主。交割区周边区域出厂价坚挺，区内市场氛围表现一般，东北地区需求增加，交投情绪尚 可，农业刚需采购，期现商和贸易商出货，外发订单量减少，新单成交乏力，待发消耗，预计出厂价暂稳为主。综合来看，检修装置陆续回 归，日均产量增加至20. ...

尿素日报 | 2025-11-21 尿素10月出口120万吨 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-20，尿素主力收盘1665元/吨（+2）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1630 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1640元/吨（+10）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1620元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： -25元/吨（+8）；河南基差：-35元/吨（-2）；江苏基差：-45元/吨（+8）；尿素生产利润110元/吨（+10），出口利润 1034元/吨（-9）。 供应端：截至2025-11-20，企业产能利用率83.91%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为143.72 万吨（-4.64），港口样本 库存量为10.00 万吨（+1.80）。 需求端：截至2025-11-20，复合肥产能利用率34.61%（+4.29%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为62.20%（+4.72%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.12日（-0.59）。 尿素在上周新单跟进缓慢的情况下，企业降价后成交好转，小幅提涨成交氛围延续。复合肥东北开工逐渐提升， 山东湖北地区排产增加，本周开工率提升。三聚氰胺开工提升，刚需采购。淡储陆续入场。 ...

尿素日报 | 2025-11-20 尿素厂内库存去库 市场分析 价格与基差：2025-11-19，尿素主力收盘1663元/吨（+1）；河南小颗粒出厂价报价：1630 元/吨（0）；山东地区小 颗粒报价：1630元/吨（+20）；江苏地区小颗粒报价：1610元/吨（+10）；小块无烟煤750元/吨（+0），山东基差： -33元/吨（+19）；河南基差：-33元/吨（+19）；江苏基差：-53元/吨（+9）；尿素生产利润100元/吨（+20），出口利 润1044元/吨（-20）。 供应端：截至2025-11-19，企业产能利用率84.08%（0.08%）。样本企业总库存量为143.72 万吨（-4.64），港口样本 库存量为8.20 万吨（+0.30）。 需求端：截至2025-11-19，复合肥产能利用率30.32%（-0.72%）；三聚氰胺产能利用率为57.48%（+4.28%）；尿素 企业预收订单天数7.12日（-0.59）。 尿素在上周新单跟进缓慢的情况下，企业降价后成交好转，小幅提涨成交氛围延续。目前农业秋季肥收尾，复合 肥秋季肥扫尾，冬储肥生产尚未大规模开始，因环保因素整体开工率小幅下降。三聚氰胺开工提 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The release of a new urea export quota of 600,000 tons on November 6th boosted the domestic urea market sentiment, with the futures price gapping up and the spot price following suit. However, the domestic urea market has been facing high supply, weak demand, high inventory, and low production profits. The export has been the only way to digest the surplus production. The increase in the quota mainly affects the short - term market trend, and the price reversal requires an improvement in domestic supply - demand [1]. - Currently, the domestic urea supply is back to a high level, with a daily output of about 200,000 tons. The demand is generally weak, with industrial demand remaining sluggish and agricultural demand ending. The overall supply - demand is still weak, the inventory is at a high level year - on - year, and the price is expected to bottom - out and fluctuate [2]. Summary by Related Catalogs Supply - The daily output has recovered to around 200,000 tons, and high - level supply is one of the main reasons for the domestic surplus this year. Both coal - based and gas - based processes are in a loss state, and the rising coal price has further increased the cost of coal - based urea production. The cost support for the price will become more obvious at the current low price. Attention should be paid to enterprise production cuts and the scale of seasonal shutdown of gas - head devices in winter [6]. Demand - Industrial demand has been unable to bring incremental demand to urea due to the weak terminal market. The start - up of melamine is low, and the finished - product inventory of compound fertilizers is high. Although the start - up of compound fertilizers is gradually bottoming out and will increase seasonally, agricultural demand is in the off - season. The export policy is an important variable affecting the domestic urea market, as four batches of new export quotas this year have led to a significant year - on - year increase in exports [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Report's Core View - Although the fourth urea export quota has boosted recent market sentiment, the 600,000 - ton volume is not large compared to the current urea supply, and the futures market has declined slightly in the past two days. However, the export quota is beneficial for alleviating domestic supply - demand pressure, and the fourth - quarter urea winter storage will gradually start nationwide, so the urea price is supported. In the 10.21 report, it was recommended to sell out - of - the - money put options, and it is noted that the 12 - contract options will expire today [1] Group 3: Summary Based on Related Catalogs Urea Futures and Spot Prices - UR01 futures price closed at 1640 yuan/ton on November 11, down 20 yuan/ton (-1.20%) from November 10; UR05 closed at 1717 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton (-0.87%); UR09 closed at 1738 yuan/ton, down 17 yuan/ton (-0.97%). Among domestic spot prices, only Shandong's price decreased by 10 yuan/ton (-0.62%), while other regions remained unchanged [1] Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR increased by 5 yuan/ton, and the 01 - 05 spread decreased by 5 yuan/ton [1] Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream, the prices of anthracite coal in Henan, Shanxi, and Shandong remained unchanged. Downstream, the prices of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong and Henan increased by 30 yuan/ton (1.02% and 1.20% respectively), the price of melamine in Shandong decreased by 17 yuan/ton (-0.33%), and the price in Jiangsu remained unchanged [1] Important Information - The opening price of the urea futures main contract 2601 was 1660 yuan/ton, with a high of 1662 yuan/ton, a low of 1636 yuan/ton, a close of 1640 yuan/ton, a settlement price of 1648 yuan/ton, and a position of 254,037 lots [1] Trading Strategy - Stop losses for selling put options on the 12 - contract [1]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report The sentiment in the domestic urea market has cooled, with supply being ample and demand showing a downward trend. Although the issuance of the fourth batch of export quotas will boost market sentiment in the short - term, the urea fundamentals remain loose in the medium to long - term. Attention should be paid to the downstream acceptance of price increases [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Review - **Futures Market**: Urea futures fluctuated weakly, closing at 1660 (-8/-0.48%) [3]. - **Spot Market**: Factory prices rose, but trading was average. Factory prices in different regions were as follows: Henan 1580 - 1590 yuan/ton, Shandong small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Hebei small - sized particles 1590 - 1600 yuan/ton, Shanxi medium and small - sized particles 1500 - 1550 yuan/ton, Anhui small - sized particles 1560 - 1570 yuan/ton, and Inner Mongolia 1420 - 1490 yuan/ton [3]. Important Information On November 10, the daily urea production was 19.51 tons, 0.28 tons less than the previous working day and 1.08 tons more than the same period last year. The operating rate was 83.41%, 1.89% higher than 81.52% in the same period last year [4]. Logical Analysis - **Supply**: Maintenance devices have gradually resumed operation, and the average daily output has increased to around 19.6 tons [5]. - **Demand**: The issuance of the fourth batch of quotas has made the impact of international prices on the domestic market more prominent. The compound fertilizer production in Central and North China has basically ended, and the demand is weakening. The inventory of urea production enterprises has slightly increased to around 158 tons [5]. - **Price Trend**: In the short - term, domestic demand is limited, and the spot market sentiment is still sluggish. Although the issuance of the new quota will boost the market sentiment, the overall domestic demand will enter a "vacuum period" again after the autumn fertilizer season. In the medium to long - term, the urea fundamentals are still loose [5]. Trading Strategy - **Single - side**: Short positions are recommended [6]. - **Arbitrage**: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [6].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - Short - term domestic urea market is stable with an upward bias due to new export quotas, but high supply in November may pressure prices. Export policy adjustments and rising coal prices support the urea price, while the overall trend is expected to be weakly volatile [4]. - The near - term trading logic suggests an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month difference of urea futures due to the disappearance of export expectations for the 01 contract, though the 01 contract still has a premium because of autumn fertilizer expectations [7]. - In the long - term, the domestic urea daily production fluctuates slightly, and the domestic trade supply - demand contradiction persists. After the holiday, the enterprise inventory increases significantly, and new orders need to be replenished [12]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Core Contradictions and Strategy Recommendations 1.1 Core Contradictions - New export quota of 600,000 tons is directly allocated to upstream factories, supporting short - term spot prices. In November, high daily production may pressure prices, but export policy adjustments and rising coal prices provide support [4]. - Near - term: The cheapest deliverable locations for urea futures are Henan and Shandong. The 1 - 5 month spread of 01 contract is in an inverse spread due to the disappearance of export expectations, but the 01 contract still has a premium [7]. - Long - term: Domestic urea daily production fluctuates between 195,000 - 201,000 tons around holidays and then drops to 195,000 tons. After - holiday enterprise inventory is around 1.4 million tons, an increase from before the holiday, and new orders need to be replenished [12]. 1.2 Trading - type Strategy Recommendations - **Trend Judgment**: Urea is expected to run weakly and volatile. The UR2601 contract is expected to trade between 1,550 - 1,750 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at prices above 1,750 yuan/ton and set up an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month spread when it is above - 10 [14]. - **Basis, Month - spread, and Hedging Arbitrage Strategy Recommendations**: - Basis strategy: Contracts 11, 12, and 01 have a weak unilateral trend, while contracts 02, 03, 04, and 05 are strong with peak - season demand expectations [15]. - Month - spread strategy: The upper pressure for the 01 contract is 1,710 - 1,720 yuan/ton, and the static support is 1,550 - 1,620 yuan/ton. It is recommended to short at high prices and set up an inverse spread for the 1 - 5 month spread [15]. - Hedging arbitrage strategy: None [16]. Chapter 2: This Week's Important Information and Next Week's Events to Watch 2.1 This Week's Important Information - **Positive Information**: India announced a new round of urea import tender for 2.5 million tons on November 6, with a shipment deadline of January 15, 2026. The fourth quarter is the winter storage period for the fertilizer industry, and low prices may attract spontaneous reserves [17]. - **Negative Information**: The domestic urea daily production has been above 190,000 tons for a long time this year, and high inventory has pressured prices. Market confidence is lacking, and downstream procurement enthusiasm is low [18]. 2.2 Next Week's Important Events to Watch - China's urea weekly production is expected to be around 1.34 million tons next week, an increase from this week. There are no planned shutdowns, and 5 - 6 enterprises' devices may resume production [20]. Chapter 3: Disk Interpretation 3.1 Price - volume and Capital Interpretation - Domestic urea daily production fluctuates around 195,000 - 201,000 tons around holidays and then drops to 195,000 tons. After - holiday enterprise inventory is around 1.4 million tons, an increase from before the holiday. Agricultural demand in Shandong and Henan is postponed due to rain, and compound fertilizer factories in some areas are shut down. Downstream procurement willingness is low [21]. - The main contradiction is weak domestic demand. It is expected that the increase in exports cannot offset the weakening of domestic demand, and the medium - term trend is under pressure. The 1 - 5 month spread of urea futures is in an inverse spread [22]. 3.2 Industry Hedging Recommendations - **Price Range Forecast**: The price range for urea is 1,650 - 1,950 yuan/ton, with a 20 - day rolling volatility of 27.16% and a 3 - year historical percentile of 62.1% [31]. - **Hedging Strategy Table**: - Inventory management: For enterprises with high finished - product inventory, it is recommended to short urea futures (UR2601) to lock in profits, with a hedging ratio of 25% and an entry range of 1,800 - 1,950 yuan/ton. Buy put options (UR2601P1850) to prevent price drops and sell call options (UR2601C1950) to reduce costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 45 - 60 [31]. - Procurement management: For enterprises with low procurement inventory, it is recommended to buy urea futures (UR2601) to lock in procurement costs, with a hedging ratio of 50% and an entry range of 1,650 - 1,750 yuan/ton. Sell put options (UR2601P1650) to collect premiums and lock in purchase prices if the price drops, with a hedging ratio of 75% and an entry range of 20 - 25 [31]. Chapter 4: Valuation and Profit Analysis 4.1 Upstream Profit Tracking in the Industrial Chain - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's fixed - bed production cost, water - coal slurry gasification production cost, and production profit [33]. 4.2 Upstream Capacity Utilization Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's daily production, weekly capacity utilization, coal - based capacity utilization, and natural - gas - based capacity utilization [43]. 4.3 Upstream Inventory Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of China's urea weekly enterprise inventory, port inventory, Guangdong and Guangxi inventory, and total inventory (port + inland) [47]. 4.4 Downstream Price and Profit Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of compound fertilizer's capacity utilization, inventory, production cost, and production profit, as well as charts of melamine's production, capacity utilization, market price, and production profit [53]. 4.5 Spot Production and Sales Tracking - The report provides seasonal charts of urea's average production and sales, as well as production and sales in Shandong, Henan, Shanxi, Hebei, and East China [76].

Core Viewpoint - The urea market is experiencing slight price increases due to improved production rates and market sentiment, but overall demand remains cautious with a focus on export quota developments [2][4][6]. Group 1: Market Trends - Urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased, with small granular urea trading at 1540-1590 RMB/ton and large granular urea at 1740-1760 RMB/ton [2]. - The overall market sentiment has been positively influenced by recent export news, although the follow-up market response has been less than expected [2][4]. - The industry’s daily production rate is reported at 19.59 thousand tons, showing a slight decrease of 0.08 thousand tons from the previous day [4]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - Urea production rates have improved as previously shut-down facilities are coming back online, leading to an accumulation of inventory [3][7]. - As of November 5, total inventory for Chinese urea enterprises reached 157.81 million tons, an increase of 2.38 million tons week-on-week, reflecting a 1.53% rise [3][8]. - Agricultural demand is tapering off as the wheat planting season concludes, while industrial demand is gradually increasing, particularly from compound fertilizer manufacturers [7][8]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Analysts suggest that the new export quota news could lead to a stronger market performance, but caution is advised as the actual impact remains to be seen [4][5]. - There is speculation that export quotas may be significantly relaxed next year, but the export window for this year is likely to remain closed [5][7]. - The overall expectation is for prices to remain volatile with a tendency towards weakness due to limited increases in future export expectations [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Core Viewpoints - Recently, urea prices have been falling continuously, and short positions in the futures market have been increasing daily. The main reason for the futures price falling more than the spot price is the elimination of export expectations, and urea prices in the future will be more determined by the domestic market [4]. - There may be some discrepancies in inventory expectations. Some enterprises with export quotas may accelerate cargo collection at ports in September, and ports will intensify inventory clearance before October 15 [6]. - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, but there is still demand. Considering its unique sales attributes and potential expectation discrepancies, urea may have short - term upward momentum [7]. Summary by Related Content Price and Basis - The basis (Henan's lowest deliverable product price) was around - 110 last Tuesday and is currently - 70. The futures price has fallen more than the spot price, mainly due to the extrusion of export expectations from the futures market [4]. Inventory - After entering the second quarter, urea enterprises have slow de - stocking due to high daily production and export quota occupation, and current enterprise inventory fluctuates around 1 million tons. Port inventory has increased due to the opening of exports [6]. - Since August, the increase in enterprise inventory has mainly occurred in Inner Mongolia. Considering the low export quota of Inner Mongolian factories and the single - peak season in a year, the Northeast market should be considered when analyzing future enterprise inventory trends. Northeast urea demand is gradually starting, which may drive the de - stocking of Inner Mongolian inventory [6]. Supply and Demand - Urea is still under high - supply pressure in the large - scale production cycle, and new production capacity will be put into operation in the fourth quarter, but the time is still early and there is still demand [7].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the report industry investment rating Group 2: Report's Core View - The urea market shows a mixed situation. Although the international urea price remains strong, the second - batch of domestic export quotas is significantly lower than the first - batch, and the domestic supply is in excess with high daily production and开工率, and weak demand. The UR main contract is expected to fluctuate today [4] - The main influencing factors include the international price and the marginal change of domestic demand, and the main risk point is the change of export policy [5] Group 3: Summary According to Related Catalogs Urea Overview - **Fundamentals**: The urea futures price has rebounded recently. The international urea price is strong, but the second - batch of domestic export quotas is 120,000 tons, lower than the first - batch of 200,000 tons. The domestic supply side has high daily production and开工率, and the inventory has increased again. The industrial demand for compound fertilizer and melamine has declined, and the agricultural demand has weakened again. The overall domestic urea supply exceeds demand, and the export policy has not been liberalized beyond expectations. The spot price of the delivery product is 1,710 (unchanged), and the overall fundamentals are bearish [4] - **Basis**: The basis of the UR2509 contract is - 63, and the premium/discount ratio is - 3.7%, which is bearish [4] - **Inventory**: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), which is bearish [4] - **Futures Market**: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, and the closing price is above the 20 - day line, which is bullish [4] - **Main Position**: The net position of the UR main contract is short, which is bearish [4] - **Expectation**: The futures price of the urea main contract has rebounded. The international urea price is strong, but the export quota is lower than expected, and the overall domestic supply exceeds demand. It is expected that the UR will fluctuate today [4] - **Leverage Factors**: Bullish factor is the strong international price; bearish factors include high production and daily output, weak domestic demand, and lower - than - expected export quotas [5] Spot and Futures Market and Inventory | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot Market | The spot price of the delivery product is 1,710 (unchanged), Shandong spot price is 1,710 (unchanged), Henan spot price is 1,720 (unchanged), and FOB China price is 2,545 [6] | | Futures Market | UR01 price is 1,779 (-30), UR05 price is 1,793 (-22), UR09 price is 1,773 (-44), and the basis of the UR2509 contract is - 63 (+44) [6] | | Inventory | Warehouse receipts are 2,523 (unchanged), UR comprehensive inventory is 1.422 million tons (+182,000 tons), UR manufacturer inventory is 1.177 million tons, and UR port inventory is 245,000 tons [6] | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet | Year | Capacity | Capacity Growth Rate | Output | Net Imports | Import Dependence | Apparent Consumption | Ending Inventory | Actual Consumption | Consumption Growth Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 2018 | | 2,245.5 | | 1,956.81 | 18.6% | 2,405.19 | 23.66 | 2,405.19 | | | 2019 | | 2,445.5 | 8.9% | 2,240 | 17.9% | 2,727.94 | 37.86 | 2,713.74 | 12.8% | | 2020 | | 2,825.5 | 15.5% | 2,580.98 | 19.3% | 3,200.1 | 37.83 | 3,200.13 | 17.9% | | 2021 | | 3,148.5 | 11.4% | 2,927.99 | 10.7% | 3,280.4 | 35.72 | 3,282.51 | 2.6% | | 2022 | | 3,413.5 | 8.4% | 2,965.46 | 10.2% | 3,300.83 | 44.62 | 3,291.93 | 0.3% | | 2023 | | 3,893.5 | 14.1% | 3,193.59 | 8.4% | 3,486.72 | 44.65 | 3,486.69 | 5.9% | | 2024 | | 4,418.5 | 13.5% | 3,425 | 9.5% | 3,785 | 51.4 | 3,778.25 | 8.4% | | 2025E | | 4,906 | 11.0% | | | | | | | [10]