【冠通期货研究报告】 尿素日报： 环保限产，下游数据下滑 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 25 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面平开高走，日内震荡收涨。现货工厂挺价意愿强烈，但下游承接 力度一般。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1630- 1710 元/吨，上涨 10 元/吨左右，河南工厂价格偏低端，山东少数工厂报价偏 高端。基本面来看，目前日产 19 万吨，宽松压力没有缓解，气头日产偏高于历 年同期，限气停产未明显压低产量。复合肥工厂本期开工负荷继续下滑，环比 下降 1.62 个百分点，其中主要受华北地区环保限产的影响，开工率多有下降， 东北及西南等地区相对稳定，后续预计冬储市场依旧稳定运行，后续环保限制 解除后，或有回升，原料采购端有韧性。本期库存去化幅度增大，主要系近期 上下游的装置均有部分减产，目前同步去年偏低 45.61 万吨。综合来看，国际 尿素对国内市场影响相对较小，日产压力稍有缓解，而下游需求支撑仍存，短 期震荡偏强为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1732 元/吨开盘, 平开高走，日内震荡收涨， 最终收于 1740 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅+0.4 ...

今日盘面高开低走，日内回调。现货价格继续上涨，但高端成交有限，预 计周末价格维稳。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围多在 1640-1700 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，虽位于气头装置停产期 间，但日产暂无大幅度下滑，依然在 19 万吨以上运行，本期复合肥工厂开工环 比下行，主要系部分地区环保检查导致开工负荷下行，另一方面，复合肥价格 增高后下游发运能力变差，工厂主动降低负荷，东北工厂依旧保持冬储生产节 奏，近期雾霾天气影响，上下游装置开工均受到一定的影响，备货能力下降， 库存继续去化，但主要集中在东北及西北地区，主交割区库存小幅增加。印标 刺激动能不足，目前呈现供需均环比走弱的迹象，今日行情有回调，但下游韧 性仍在，窄幅震荡为主。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1705 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内回调，最 终收于 1697 元/吨，收成一根阴线，涨跌幅-0.41%，持仓量 163856 手（+1329 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-670 手，空头+104 手。其中， 中泰期货净多单+424 手、中原期货净多单+227 手；国泰君安净空单-136 ...

· 2025 年 12 月 18 日 需求弹性增加，旺季偏强，淡季承压 三 年 ---2026 年尿素期货年度行情展望 杨鈜汉 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0021541 yanghonghan@gtht.com 报告导读： 国 观点：2026 上半年尿素价格中枢或有上移，农需旺季过后，预计下半年尿素价格中枢逐步回落，震荡格局贯穿全年。全年市场或主要交易 尿素农需旺季驱动、出口驱动、承储驱动的预期及预期差，建议重点关注波段机会。此外，2026 年出口相关政策调整继 2025 年后仍是国内基 本面调节的关键因素。目前由于出口政策较为灵活，市场对于尿素远月价格的预期亦较为多变，交易者更多需要实时应对政策调整对市场预期的 改变。2026 年尿素价格运行区间预计在 1550-1950 元/吨。策略方面建议关注 5-9 逢低正套，9-1 及 1-5 的逢高反套。 君 安 期 货 研 究 所 逻辑：供应方面，尿素 2026 年或以高产量、高库存、低利润为起点。全年来看，尿素供应端或呈现产量增加、库存先抑后扬、利润先扬后 抑的格局。第一，产量端，2026 年尿素行业预计新增产能 651 万吨，全年产能增速约为 7.9%。理论产能 ...

尿素日报：情绪偏强 发布日期：2025 年 12 月 18 日 【行情分析】 今日盘面高开低走，日内上涨。今日现货价格上涨，交投氛围良好，部分 工厂出现停售。山东、河南及河北尿素工厂小颗粒尿素出厂价格范围在 1590- 1670 元/吨，河南工厂价格偏低端。基本面来看，虽位于气头装置停产期间， 但日产暂无大幅度下滑，依然在 19 万吨以上运行，农业需求处于淡季阶段，贸 易商适时补库。本期复合肥工厂开工环比下行，主要系部分地区环保检查导致 开工负荷下行，另一方面，复合肥价格增高后下游发运能力变差，工厂主动降 低负荷，东北工厂依旧保持冬储生产节奏，其他工业需求端因环保检查的结束 而逐渐复工，尿素下游依然有韧性。本期尿素库存继续去化，但主要集中在东 北西北地区，主交割区库存小幅增加。印标继续刺激市场情绪，尿素价格有延 续反弹，但过剩的缺口依然存在，上方压力明显。 【期现行情】 期货方面：尿素主力 2605 合约 1696 元/吨开盘, 高开低走，日内上涨，最 终收于 1708 元/吨，收成一根阳线，涨跌幅 1.67%，持仓量 162527 手（-2001 手）。主力合约前二十名主力持仓席位来看，多头-3106 手， ...

成文日期: 20251207 报告周期:周报 研究员：何宁（从业资格号：F0238922;投资咨询从业证书号:Z0001219) 尿素期货周报 核心观点: 上周（20251201-1205）尿素期货冲高回落，其上涨主要源于 现货价格稳步提升且成交持续活跃。现货市场交易情绪良好,尿素 工厂订单充裕，短期内缺乏调价意愿。 1 期货市场 1.1 合约行情 本周（20251201-1205）尿素期货各合约价格表现整体差别不 大，盘面表现为震荡。具体如下：尿素 2602（UR602）收盘价为 1675 元/吨，开盘价为 1678 元/吨，最高价为 1707 元/吨，最低价 为 1672 元/吨，周跌幅为 0.24%，成交量为 5.86 万手，持仓量为 2.4 万手。尿素 2601（UR601）收盘价为 1673 元/吨，开盘价为 1682 元/吨，最高价为 1710 元/吨，最低价为 1670 元/吨，周跌幅 为 0.24%，成交量为 58.2 万手，持仓量为 20 万手。 图 1：尿素 2601（UR601）日线图 研究咨询: 028 6130 3163 邮箱: institute@gjgh.com.cn 投诉热线: ...

Report Overview - Report Title: "Reserve Demand Supports, Urea Futures Prices Show Strong Resistance to Decline - Weekly Urea Market Analysis" [1] - Report Date: November 21, 2025 [2] - Report Author: Chang Xuemei, Chemical Researcher at Haizheng Futures Research Institute [28] 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The supply - demand data of urea has improved recently, and the price is relatively firm. The short - term price is supported by the improvement of industrial and agricultural demand and optimistic expectations for Indian tenders and exports. However, the high daily production may limit the price rebound space, and the price is likely to fluctuate strongly in the future [6]. - The UR01&05 spread continues to fluctuate and adjust, and the impact of the main contract shift on the spread needs further attention [6]. - The urea industry inventory pressure has been further relieved, but the absolute inventory is still large and needs further digestion [23]. - The urea industry profit continues to operate at a low level, and the medium - term supply - demand pattern is still loose, so the profit may continue to be weakly adjusted [26]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Price**: This week, the main 01 contract of urea fluctuated upward, showing strong resistance to decline. As of Thursday's close, the UR2601 contract was reported at 1665 yuan/ton [4]. - **Spot Price**: This week, the spot prices of urea in various regions increased slightly. Northeast procurement improved the domestic urea trading. As of Thursday, the mainstream ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong was about 1600 - 1630 yuan/ton [7][8]. - **Basis**: This week, the basis was strongly volatile. As of Thursday, the basis of the Shandong 01 contract was about - 25 yuan/ton, and that of the Hebei 01 contract was about - 15 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening compared with the previous period [8]. - **Spread**: As of Thursday, the UR01&05 spread was about - 70 yuan/ton, showing a slight strengthening with relatively limited volatility [8]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: Recently, the number of warehouse receipts has been stable. As of Thursday, the number of urea warehouse receipts was about 7183, mainly distributed in Yuntu Holdings, Sichuan Agricultural Means, Anhui Zhongneng, and Zhongnong Holdings [10]. 3.2 Supply Side - **Maintenance**: This week, the urea plant maintenance volume was about 20.94 million tons, a decrease of 1.96 million tons compared with the previous period. Among them, the coal - based sample plant maintenance volume was about 16.27 million tons, a decrease of 21.96 million tons compared with the previous period; the gas - based sample plant maintenance volume was about 4.67 million tons, remaining the same as the previous period [13]. - **Operating Rate**: As of November 20, the domestic urea operating rate was about 83.91%, a slight decrease of about 0.17% compared with the previous period. The coal - based production capacity utilization rate of urea production enterprises was about 87.23%, a decrease of 0.3% from the previous period; the gas - based production capacity utilization rate was about 72.55%, a decrease of 0.21% from the previous period [15]. - **Production**: This week, the urea production was about 142.04 million tons, an increase of about 4.35 million tons compared with last week. The coal - based weekly urea production was about 114.31 million tons, an increase of about 4.43 million tons from the previous period; the gas - based weekly urea production was about 27.73 million tons, a decrease of 0.08 million tons compared with the previous period [15]. 3.3 Demand Side - **Compound Fertilizer**: As of November 20, the compound fertilizer operating rate was about 34.61%, an increase of 4.29% compared with last week. The compound fertilizer inventory was about 65.48 million tons, a decrease of 0.15 million tons from the previous period, a decline of 0.23%. The profit of compound fertilizer in Shandong continued to be compressed [18]. - **Melamine**: As of November 20, the domestic melamine enterprise operating rate was about 62.2%, an increase of 4.28% compared with the previous period. The melamine production was about 3.2 million tons, continuing to rise compared with last week. The short - term increase in operating rate is expected to slow down [20]. 3.4 Inventory and Profit - **Inventory**: As of November 19, the total domestic urea enterprise inventory was about 143.72 million tons, a decrease of about 4.64 million tons compared with the previous period, a decline of about 3.13%. The urea port sample inventory was about 10 million tons, an increase of 1.8 million tons compared with the previous period, an increase of 21.95%. The current pre - sales days were about 7.12 days, a decrease of about 0.59 days compared with the previous period [22][23]. - **Profit**: As of November 20, the fixed - bed process profit was about - 307 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; the coal - water slurry profit was about 69 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with last week; the natural gas profit was about - 288 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6 yuan/ton compared with the previous period [26].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down at the end of the session. The spot market has weak trading sentiment. The supply pressure of high daily production is large, and the cost is supported by rising coal prices. The overall demand has improved compared to the early part of this month, but it is difficult to change the pattern of loose supply and demand. The futures price is expected to fluctuate within a narrow range, and attention should be paid to the follow - up of winter storage [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures market opened lower and moved higher, then fell back during the day and closed down. The spot trading atmosphere was weak, with the ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranging from 1,520 to 1,560 yuan/ton. The daily production continued to rise and was expected to remain high before the gas - fired devices were restricted. The cost was supported by rising coal prices. The autumn fertilizer was in the final stage, and the overall demand improved compared to the early part of this month, but the winter storage follow - up was not obvious, and the futures price was expected to fluctuate narrowly [1] Futures and Spot Market - Futures: The urea main contract 2601 opened at 1,627 yuan/ton, closed at 1,625 yuan/ton, down 0.43%. The trading volume decreased by 6,006 lots to 264,103 lots. Among the top 20 positions, the long positions decreased by 1,287 lots, and the short positions decreased by 1,220 lots. On October 31, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts increased by 1,455 lots to 1,455 lots [2] - Spot: The spot trading enthusiasm was poor, and the market was weak. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was in the range of 1,520 - 1,560 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot price remained stable, and the futures closing price declined. Based on the Henan region, the basis of the January contract was - 45 yuan/ton, up 2 yuan/ton from the previous trading day [7] - Supply: On October 31, 2025, the national daily urea production was 190,400 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 80.45% [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a "moderate upward" rating for the urea industry [1] Report Core View - The urea futures are rising moderately, and the spot market is gradually recovering. With the progress of farming seasons and the resumption of work in compound fertilizer plants, the market trend is expected to remain strong. Attention should be paid to policy changes [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - The urea futures opened high and moved higher on October 24, 2025, with a strong intraday performance. The market's follow - up buying sentiment was obvious, and the trading sentiment was fair. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1520 - 1560 yuan/ton, with price increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Hebei's quotes were relatively high [1][5] - On the supply side, the daily production is slightly decreasing, but there will be unit restarts and new unit commissions. Before natural gas curtailment, daily production will not be significantly reduced. The price of动力煤 (bituminous coal used for power generation) is rising, increasing the cost of urea production. Natural gas - based enterprises are continuously losing money, and Zhongyuan Dahua has shut down for maintenance. As the heating season approaches, the operating rate of natural gas enterprises is expected to decline [1] - On the demand side, compound fertilizer plants increased their operating loads this period, with a month - on - month increase of about 3.53% but a year - on - year decrease of 2.03%. The finished product inventory is still in the destocking stage. The start - up in Northeast China may be postponed, and the growth rate of the factory operating rate may slow down [1] - Currently, it is in the inventory accumulation stage, but the inventory increase this period is slower than the previous one [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions Futures - The main urea contract 2601 opened at 1633 yuan/ton, closed at 1642 yuan/ton, up 0.74%. The trading volume was 286338 lots, a decrease of 12502 lots [2] - On October 24, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 5407, a decrease of 77 from the previous trading day. Among them, Anyang Wanzhuang (Sichuan Agricultural Materials) decreased by 7, Anyang Wanzhuang decreased by 2, Hengshui Mianma decreased by 18, and Liaoning Fertilizer (Aipu Holdings) decreased by 50 [2] - Among the top 20 long and short positions in the main contract, the long positions decreased by 3327 lots, and the short positions decreased by 8622 lots. Hongyuan Futures had a net long position of +691 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of +779 lots; Guotai Junan had a net short position of +2256 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of -4124 lots [2][3] Spot - The continuous rise of futures has led to obvious follow - up buying sentiment in the market, and the trading sentiment is fair. The ex - factory prices of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei ranged from 1520 - 1560 yuan/ton, with price increases of 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and Hebei's quotes were relatively high [1][5] Fundamental Tracking Basis - The mainstream spot market quotes rose, and the futures closing price increased. Based on the Henan region, the basis weakened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was -72 yuan/ton, an increase of 16 yuan/ton [8] Supply Data - On October 24, 2025, the national daily urea production was 196,200 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the operating rate was 82.9% [9]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core View of the Report - During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, prices showed a downward trend, and the weather affected downstream demand, resulting in a weak spot market, weak demand, and falling prices dragging down futures prices. Currently, the futures price has reached a new low, and attention should be paid to the inflection point of the spot market [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - On October 9, 2025, the market opened low and moved lower, with an intraday decline. During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, and prices showed a downward trend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1,510 - 1,590 yuan/ton. Upstream factories had many overhauls during the holiday, and the daily output slightly decreased but remained above 190,000 tons. Rainfall during the holiday affected corn harvesting and wheat sowing in North China, reducing urea demand and delaying the farming season. Downstream factories were on holiday, the operating load of compound fertilizer factories decreased significantly, and the terminal was weak due to rainfall. It is expected that factories will gradually resume production after the holiday, and terminal purchases will improve after the weather gets better. The inventory in upstream factories increased by about 17% compared with last week [1] Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: The urea main 2601 contract opened at 1,648 yuan/ton, moved lower throughout the day, and finally closed at 1,609 yuan/ton, with a decline of 3.42%. The trading volume was 310,689 lots (+43,221 lots). Among the top 20 positions, long positions increased by 21,894 lots, and short positions increased by 26,197 lots. Fangzheng Futures had a net long position of +2,259 lots, Zhongtai Futures had a net long position of +2,059 lots, Dongzheng Futures had a net short position of +8,002 lots, and CITIC Futures had a net short position of +2,731 lots. On October 9, 2025, the number of urea warehouse receipts was 7,017, a decrease of 152 from the previous trading day, with a decrease of 152 in Tieling Dongbeifeng [2] - Spot: During the National Day holiday, the market demand did not improve, and prices showed a downward trend. The ex - factory price of small - particle urea in Shandong, Henan, and Hebei was mostly in the range of 1,510 - 1,590 yuan/ton [4] Fundamental Tracking - Basis: The mainstream spot market quotation decreased, and the futures closing price decreased. Based on the Henan region, the basis strengthened compared with the previous trading day, and the basis of the January contract was - 39 yuan/ton (+41 yuan/ton) [8] - Supply data: On October 9, 2025, the national daily output of urea was 199,400 tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from the previous day, and the operating rate was 84.25% [9] - Downstream data: From October 4th to October 10th, the capacity utilization rate of compound fertilizers was 25.5%, a decrease of 6.96 percentage points from last week. The weekly average capacity utilization rate of melamine in China was 65.47%, an increase of 3.95 percentage points from last week [13]

Report Overview - Research Date: September 18, 2025 - Report Cycle: Daily - Research Variety: Urea - Researcher: He Ning (Qualification No.: F0238922; Investment Consulting Certificate No.: Z0001219) [1] 1. Futures Market 1.1 Contract Quotes - On September 18, 2025, the price of the main urea futures contract fluctuated downward, closing at 1670 yuan/ton, with a maximum of 1681 yuan/ton and a minimum of 1662 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 114,000 lots, an increase of 21,000 lots from the previous day, and the open interest was 287,000 lots, an increase of 6,000 lots from the previous day [2] 1.2 Variety Prices - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally remained stable, with slight differences in some areas due to demand. Representative factory quotes were: Henan Xinlianxin in Central China at 1680 yuan/ton (basis 10 yuan/ton), Ningxia Petrochemical in Northwest China at 1530 yuan/ton (basis -140 yuan/ton), Ruixing Group in East China at 1630 yuan/ton (basis -40 yuan/ton), and Hualu Hengsheng in North China at 1650 yuan/ton (basis -20 yuan/ton) [6] 2. Spot Market 2.1 Spot Prices and Basis Data - Domestic major regional urea spot prices generally maintained a stable trend, with slight differences in some areas due to demand [6] 3. Influencing Factors 3.1 Industry News - The Fed announced a 25 - basis - point interest rate cut as planned, but the policy signals it released were complex, with both hawkish and dovish stances [7][8] 4. Market Outlook - Currently, domestic urea production has rebounded, but agricultural demand is in the off - season, industrial demand is growing slowly, and upstream factories are continuously accumulating inventory. The lowest bid in the latest Indian tender was lower than market expectations. The total inventory of domestic urea enterprises has reached 1165300 tons, a month - on - month increase of 32600 tons. Supply is slightly stronger than demand, and enterprise inventory has increased slightly. It is expected that the short - term urea futures market may continue to fluctuate weakly [9][11]