贝森特的言语耐人寻味，或暗示特朗普的高关税并非永久性，同时还给出下一任美联储主席的"招聘要 求"。 美国财政部长贝森特在接受《日经新闻》采访时表示，如果贸易失衡状况得到改善，美国对其他国家征 收的对等关税可能会缩减。 关于与尚未达成贸易协议的国家的持续谈判，他说："我认为我们将在10月底之前基本完成这项工作。" 特朗普政府也一直在利用关税就乌克兰冲突问题向俄罗斯施加更大压力，最引人注目的是威胁对继续购 买俄罗斯石油的印度额外征收25%的关税——使总税率达到50%。 贝森特还解释说，关税政策是增加税收和保护美国产业的一种方式，并补充说特朗普也"将其用于外交 政策的谈判"。"就像现在，他说他希望印度停止购买俄罗斯石油，"他说。 至于日本，经过谈判，东京方面接受了15%的关税，并承诺设立一个5500亿美元的投资和贷款一揽子计 划。在商品交换中，美国对日本有690亿美元的贸易逆差。 贝森特上周四在他的财政部办公室说，"随着时间的推移，关税应该像一块融化的冰块。" 同一天，特朗普政府实施了对等关税的新税率。例如，对美国进口的日本商品的税率从10%提高到了 15%。 贝森特正在领导与亚洲多国的贸易谈判。随着新关税税率的实 ...

贝森特已为下一任美联储主席的遴选定下基调。 当地时间8月7日，美国财政部长贝森特在接受媒体专访时明确表示，新的美联储主席应当是"能够审视 整个组织"的人。他认为，美联储的使命已包含太多货币政策以外的事务，这已将其独立性置于风险之 中。 贝森特还表示，新主席必须"赢得市场信心，具备分析复杂经济数据的能力"，更重要的是要"专注于前 瞻性思维，而不是依赖历史数据"。 此次表态是贝森特针对美联储主席继任者资格给出的最清晰的公开论述。 决策范式："向前看"而非"向后看" 除了机构改革，贝森特还指出了未来美联储在决策方法论上的一个重要转向。他强调，新主席需要具 备"非常适应前瞻性思维"的能力，而不是简单地"依赖历史数据"。 当前美联储在利率决策中高度依赖历史通胀数据、就业指标等滞后性指标。贝森特的表态暗示，未来政 策制定可能更多基于对经济前景的预判，而非对过去数据的回溯分析。 这意味着美联储未来的政策利率路径可能不再严格遵循过去的模式，而是会更多地反映对未来经济风险 与机遇的判断。 针对美国总统特朗普持续公开呼吁美联储降息的现状，贝森特在采访中重申，"最终，美联储是独立 的"。 核心任务：重新审视并可能收缩美联储职能 贝 ...

Group 1 - The core argument presented by Treasury Secretary Mnuchin is that the recent decline of the dollar does not threaten its status as the world's primary reserve currency, emphasizing that the "strong dollar policy" focuses on long-term stability rather than short-term fluctuations [1][4]. - Mnuchin highlighted that the dollar index fell nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking the worst semi-annual performance since the Nixon era, attributing this decline to uncertainties stemming from President Trump's trade policies and pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates [1][4]. - He reiterated that the Republican tax reform is laying the groundwork for economic growth and that measures are being taken to curb inflation, positioning the U.S. as a prime destination for global capital, which he believes will support the dollar's long-term status [4][7]. Group 2 - Mnuchin warned that if the euro rises to 1.20 against the dollar, it would cause significant concern among Europeans, as a strong euro could undermine the price competitiveness of European exports [4][7]. - He expressed skepticism towards predictions of the dollar's decline as a reserve currency since World War II, asserting that doubters will once again be proven wrong [4]. - The Secretary emphasized that U.S. policymakers recognize the responsibilities that come with being a reserve currency and can tolerate periods of a strong dollar, contrasting this with European perspectives [7].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Mnuchin, dismissed concerns that the recent depreciation of the dollar threatens its status as the world's primary currency, emphasizing the importance of long-term measures to maintain the dollar's position as a global reserve currency [1] Group 1: Dollar Performance - The dollar index fell nearly 11% in the first half of the year, marking its worst performance since 1973 [1] - This depreciation occurred amid concerns regarding the Trump administration's policies, particularly the potential economic impact of increased tariffs and a tough diplomatic stance towards long-time allies [1] Group 2: Economic Policies - Mnuchin stated that the Republican tax reform has "created conditions for economic growth," suggesting that such policies are crucial for the dollar's strength in the long run [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary, Janet Yellen, emphasized that the exchange rate of the dollar does not equate to a strong dollar policy, indicating a nuanced approach to currency valuation and economic strategy [1] Group 1 - The statement reflects a broader understanding that a strong dollar does not solely depend on its exchange rate against other currencies [1] - The U.S. government aims to maintain a stable and predictable dollar value to support economic growth and international trade [1] - Yellen's comments suggest that the administration is focused on long-term economic fundamentals rather than short-term currency fluctuations [1]

Core Viewpoint - The weakening of the US dollar may not align with Trump's true intentions, as it could lead to a crisis of confidence in the dollar and undermine the US economy [1][14]. Group 1: Dollar Index Trends - The dollar index fell over 10% in the first half of the year, reaching its lowest point since March 2022 [1]. - In 2016, following Trump's election, the dollar index initially rose but later experienced a significant decline in 2017 due to various factors, including stalled reforms and a recovering European economy [2][3]. - The dollar index's composition includes major currencies such as the euro, yen, and pound, with the euro contributing the most to the dollar's decline in 2017 [3]. Group 2: Economic Policies and Market Reactions - Trump's economic policies, including tariffs and immigration reforms, have led to market turmoil, reversing initial positive sentiment into recession expectations [6][7]. - The first quarter of this year saw a "double hit" in the US stock and currency markets, while the second quarter faced a "triple hit" due to concerns over Trump's new policies and their impact on the dollar's credibility [6][8]. - Despite the dollar's decline, US exports increased by 5.7% in the first four months of the year, while imports surged by 20.2%, leading to a widening trade deficit [9]. Group 3: Future Outlook and Implications - The current dollar weakness may be just the beginning, as structural and cyclical factors contribute to a potential long-term decline in the dollar's value [11][14]. - The Federal Reserve's internal divisions regarding interest rate policies could lead to renewed rate cuts if economic conditions worsen, further accelerating the dollar's decline [14]. - The ongoing trade tensions and Trump's unpredictable economic policies may erode the dollar's international credibility, complicating the outlook for US trade balances and inflation [13][14].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. government maintains a "strong dollar" policy, dismissing speculations about a shift towards a "weak dollar" or secret currency agreements [1][9][10]. Group 1: Strong Dollar Policy - Stephen Miran, Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, confirmed the commitment to a "strong dollar" policy, refuting any claims of secret currency agreements during trade negotiations [1][3][4]. - Following Miran's statements, the U.S. dollar index rose by 0.5% to 100.1216 before slightly retreating [2]. - Miran emphasized that the strong dollar is not just about exchange rates but also concerns the stability of the dollar system and its structural advantages as the global reserve currency [10]. Group 2: Trade and Economic Strategy - Miran addressed concerns regarding tariffs, economic deficits, and potential recession, stating that the recent market volatility is expected during policy adjustments [11][13]. - He noted that while companies might delay investments or hiring, this does not indicate an impending recession, but rather a temporary shift in timing [14]. - The administration is engaged in trade negotiations with over 20 countries, expecting to finalize multiple agreements in the coming months, which could significantly boost U.S. exports and help reduce the trade deficit [15]. Group 3: Fiscal Deficit and Tax Policy - Miran criticized the Biden administration for leaving behind a challenging fiscal situation while defending the current fiscal strategy [16][17]. - He argued that fiscal deficits should occur during genuine crises, not during stable economic periods, and that assessments of deficits should consider various factors beyond static evaluations [18]. - Despite market challenges, Miran expressed confidence in the administration's core economic strategy, which focuses on tax reform, deregulation, and energy independence [19][20].

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.5%, reaching 100.1216, indicating a strengthening of the dollar in the market [1] Group 1 - The Chairman of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, Stephen Miran, stated that the U.S. will continue to pursue a strong dollar policy [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. continues to pursue a strong dollar policy without engaging in secret currency negotiations [1] Group 1 - The statement was made by Trump's economic advisor, Miran, emphasizing the commitment to a strong dollar [1]

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary emphasizes the commitment to a strong dollar policy, indicating a strategic approach to currency management in the context of global economic dynamics [1] Group 1 - The U.S. is pursuing a strong dollar policy, which may influence international trade and investment flows [1] - The European Central Bank is expected to lower interest rates to facilitate a decline in the euro, potentially impacting the eurozone's economic stability [1] - There are ongoing substantive discussions with Japanese allies, suggesting a collaborative approach to address currency and economic issues [1]