朋友们，最近房价话题又冲上热搜了吧？无论你是持房观望还是准备入手，这组新鲜出炉的9月百城房价数据，都值得咱们细细拆解——市场正在用冷热分 化的现实，告诉我们下一步该怎么走。 先来看整体态势。根据中指研究院的数据，9月全国百城新房均价为16926元/平方米，环比微涨0.09%，同比也维持2.68%的涨幅，整体企稳的态势比较明 确。但二手房市场则延续"跌跌不休"的节奏，均价13381元/平方米，环比下跌0.74%，这已是连续第41个月下行，前三季度累计跌幅达5.79%。一涨一跌之 间，市场真实图景逐渐清晰。 更值得关注的是城市间的"温度差"。新房市场主要由核心城市拉动，上海环比上涨0.82%，杭州涨0.51%，一线城市整体涨幅达0.48%，成为市场重要支撑。 然而三四线城市如汕头、柳州等地新房价格仍在下行，环比下降0.35%，"以价换量"仍是主流去化策略。 二手房市场则更真实地反映了供需关系。虽然9月重点城市带看量和咨询量有所回升，交易活跃度提升，但高企的挂牌量持续压制价格，特别是二线城市环 比下跌0.87%，盐城、徐州等地跌幅超过1.3%。这种"量升价跌"的格局，说明卖家仍在通过让利争取成交机会。 作为专注中长 ...

Core Viewpoint - In the third quarter, new home prices in 100 cities in China continued to rise, while second-hand home prices fell, indicating a divergence in the real estate market [1] Group 1: New Home Prices - The average price of newly built residential properties in 100 cities increased by 1.63% cumulatively in the first three quarters [1] Group 2: Market Outlook - The China Index Academy predicts that land parcels acquired by real estate companies in core cities during the first half of the year are expected to gradually enter the market in the fourth quarter, suggesting opportunities for "good cities + good houses" [1] - Cities with limited new project supply over the past two years are likely to focus on inventory reduction, indicating that the trend of market differentiation may continue [1]

付鹏强调，当前房地产市场的核心矛盾在于其属性已从过去的投资甚至投机主导，彻底回归至居住主 导。他认为，这种根本性转变意味着市场将呈现长期分化格局。以上海为例，外环放开限购后反而形成 抛盘压力，而符合新建筑标准、具备品质优势的新盘仍受青睐。 他还表示，在部分县城，改善型需求支撑下新建品质楼盘价格可达每平米8000元，但同区域老旧住房价 格仅1500-2000元。"我去好多小县城，现在调研好多小县城里边现在的情况是一个小区新建的能卖 8000，但他马路对面就1500、2000。现在大家在县城里待的，其实多多少少应该是这个县城里比较有钱 的了，大家不愿意去省城或者去市里了，因为这是你自己土生土长的老家，年龄又大了，所以这些人其 实有改善住的需求的，我也想住好房子。那么县城里的这些人自然有这个改善需求。" 他认为，这种分化表明，即使回归"住"的属性，市场对高品质居住的需求依然坚实，但大量持有投资属 性老旧房产的家庭，其资产负债表仍面临压力，这会持续影响其消费能力和预期。 凤凰网财经讯 9月23-24日，由凤凰卫视、凤凰网主办的"凤凰湾区财经论坛2025"在广州举行。本届论坛 以"新格局·新路径"为主题，汇聚全球政商学 ...

楼市新周期：四大挑战下的理性抉择与安居之道 "房子，早已不是那个闭眼买、稳赚不赔的'金饭碗'了。"朋友小周的一声叹息，道出了当下房地产市场深层的变革。去年岁末，在经济承压之下，他无奈地 挂牌出售了2019年以每平方米14500元购入的房产。然而，三年光景，市场风向已然调转，他只能以每平方米13200元的价格割肉离场。算上中介费、税费等 一系列隐性支出，这套曾经寄托着美好期望的居所，竟让他亏损了近30万元。小周的经历，并非个例，而是折射出当前中国房地产市场步入深度调整期的真 实写照。 市场巨变：从"黄金时代"到"新常态" 中国房地产业协会发布的《2025年中国房地产市场现状分析报告》冷峻地揭示了这一现实：2025年一季度，全国商品房销售面积同比下滑8.7%，销售金额 更是锐减12.3%。数字背后，是楼市发展方向的根本性转变，告别了过去数年高歌猛进的"黄金时代"，迈入了充满挑战的"新常态"。 住建部住房政策研究中心在《2025-2030年中国住房市场展望》中，更是为未来五年描绘了一幅严峻图景：全国约45%的家庭将面临住房市场的四大严峻挑 战。这四大挑战，不仅关乎冰冷的房价数字，更触及住房功能的重塑、人口结构的变迁 ...

楼市迷局：买房还是持币？一场关乎财富与未来的抉择 几日前，与友人小聚，话题不免俗地落在了资产配置之上。老张率先发声，言之凿凿地阐述了他抛售市 中心小户型，手握现金静待楼市触底反弹的策略。话音未落，老李便针锋相对，分享了他购置郊区大三 居的决定，虽首付压力不小，但总算拥有了一个安身立命之所。两人你来我往，争论得面红耳赤，却始 终无法说服彼此。 这场争论折射出的，或许是当下许多人面临的共同困境：在风云变幻的经济大环境下，究竟是迎风而 上，购置房产，还是按兵不动，持币观望，以待时机？ 这绝非一道简单的选择题，它不仅关乎个人的财富保值增值，更牵动着无数家庭的未来走向。毕竟，对 于绝大多数普通人而言，房子不仅仅是遮风避雨的居所，更是家庭资产配置中最为重要的组成部分。 回溯过去两年的房地产市场，我们目睹了一场深刻的调整。国家统计局的数据清晰地勾勒出这一轮调整 的轨迹：2024年，全国商品房销售面积同比大幅下降12.3%，创下近十年来历史新低。这股下行之风， 自一线城市开始，迅速蔓延至二三四线城市，房价也随之呈现出不同程度的回落。 支持购房的人士普遍认为，房子作为一种生活必需品，无论市场如何波动，其根本需求始终存在。随着 ...

朋友圈的一则"惊闻"：房价三天涨回四年跌幅？我陷入沉思 当朋友圈被"三天房价涨回四年跌幅"的奇闻刷屏时，我一边刷新着最新的数据，一边陷入了深深的沉思。刚刚公布的8 月统计数据显示，全国70个大中城市中，二手房价格普遍下行，竟有69个城市仍在"下跌"的泥潭中挣扎；而一线城市的 新房价格环比跌幅更是扩大至0.3%。这一幕，宛如一出"魔幻现实"的戏剧，刚刚过去的几天疯狂上涨，与过去四年房地 产市场的持续调整形成了如此强烈的反差，令人震惊。 01、政策的"组合拳"能否托起楼市的"底盘"？ 然而，这些"暖流"似乎只惠及了特定人群。例如，90后程序员能够享受"首付最低15%、人才补贴"的政策，成功买到了 心仪的新房；二胎妈妈则抓住了"特价房"的机会。但对于普通购房者而言，大多数人仍在观望和等待。据中指研究院的 最新调查，6月份居民的购房意愿降至年内最低点，仅有15%，而高达34%的家庭表示"再等等看"。尽管政策频出，但对 市场的根本性改变尚未显现。 02、市场的极端分裂：豪宅的"狂欢"与老破小的"悲歌" 面对当前的房地产市场，我看到了两个截然不同的"极端"。 一端，是豪宅市场令人瞩目的"刷屏时刻"。上海新杨思板块，228 ...

Core Insights - The recent price increase in real estate markets across various second-tier cities in China indicates a potential market recovery rather than a mere risk signal [1][10][14] Group 1: Price Trends and Market Dynamics - Over 20 second-tier cities have announced the cancellation of sales discounts, with significant price increases observed in 8 cities since the beginning of 2025 [1][2] - The cities experiencing price increases are primarily located in the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta regions, characterized by low inventory turnover periods, declining new supply, and rising transaction volumes [2][5] - For example, in Xuzhou, new land supply decreased by 35% in 2024 compared to 2023, while new construction area fell by 28%, indicating a tightening supply coinciding with growing demand [2][5] Group 2: Buyer Behavior and Demand Shifts - The proportion of improvement-driven buyers in third- and fourth-tier cities has risen to 48%, the highest in five years, indicating a shift towards higher quality housing demands [5][7] - Sales data shows that these cities have a housing absorption rate exceeding 80%, with some popular projects experiencing buyer queues, suggesting a solid market foundation for price increases [5][7] Group 3: Developer and Government Influences - Developers are under financial pressure, leading them to raise prices to improve profitability, especially for projects acquired during high land cost periods [6][10] - Local governments are also motivated to support price increases as land sale revenues are crucial for their budgets, especially in light of a 12.8% decline in national land sale revenues in 2024 [6][10] Group 4: Market Segmentation and Future Outlook - The price increases are primarily seen in the new housing market, while second-hand housing prices remain stable, indicating a more proactive stance from developers rather than a passive market reaction [7][10] - The current price trends reflect a structural differentiation in the market, where cities with strong industrial support and population inflow see price increases, while those lacking such fundamentals continue to struggle [7][10] Group 5: Economic Implications - Moderate price increases can positively impact local economies by restoring market confidence and stimulating related industries such as construction and home furnishings [8][10] - However, rapid price increases could burden ordinary families, particularly first-time buyers, raising concerns about affordability and overall consumer spending [10][11]

Core Insights - The current real estate market is experiencing a significant adjustment, with a notable decline in housing prices in various regions, particularly in third and fourth-tier cities [3][4] - Young individuals face immense pressure regarding home purchases, with a high percentage expressing concerns about affordability and the fear of missing out on buying opportunities [1][3] - The market is characterized by a clear differentiation between high-quality properties in core urban areas and those in less desirable locations, with the former likely to maintain value while the latter may see price declines [4][5] Market Trends - According to the National Bureau of Statistics, new residential prices in 70 major cities decreased by 0.3% for new homes and 0.5% for second-hand homes in the first half of 2025, indicating a market adjustment rather than continuous growth [3] - A demographic shift is evident, with a declining birth rate leading to a population decrease, which is expected to impact housing demand negatively [3] - Predictions suggest that the real estate market will enter a phase of "overall surplus but structural shortage" within the next five years, indicating an oversupply of housing but a continued demand for high-quality properties [3] Investment Considerations - The rental market is becoming increasingly attractive, with a significant portion of young people opting to rent rather than buy, as rental yields are often lower than mortgage rates [7][10] - Financial experts recommend that housing costs should not exceed 30% of a household's monthly income to avoid excessive financial strain [7] - The importance of considering long-term career and personal plans when making housing decisions is emphasized, as buying a home is a long-term commitment [7][8] Psychological Factors - The "fear of missing out" on home purchases can lead to poor financial decisions, as seen in cases where individuals bought homes at high prices only to face subsequent declines [1][8] - The narrative that "housing prices will only rise" contributes to anxiety among potential buyers, highlighting the need for independent analysis rather than following market trends blindly [8][10] - The notion that homeownership is the only path to stability is challenged, with suggestions that investing in personal development may yield better long-term returns than real estate [10][11]

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in China is experiencing a divergence between new and second-hand housing prices, with first-tier cities showing more resilience in new home prices compared to second-hand homes, which continue to decline [1][4][10]. Group 1: Price Trends - In August, new home prices in first-tier cities decreased by 0.1% month-on-month, while second-hand home prices fell by 1.0% [1]. - Second-tier cities experienced a more significant decline, with new home prices down 0.3% and second-hand prices down 0.6% month-on-month [1]. - Guangzhou saw the largest year-on-year drop in second-hand home prices, down 6.2% compared to last year [1]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The second-hand housing market is more reflective of market sentiment, while new homes benefit from quicker supply adjustments and stronger demand in core areas [1][4]. - The divergence between new and second-hand home prices is expected to intensify, leading to the emergence of two distinct markets [4]. Group 3: Supply and Demand Factors - Key factors influencing the new home market include land supply, developer funding, and transaction volume [5]. - The concentration of land supply is increasing, with the top 10 developers accounting for 70% of the new value added in the real estate sector [5][6]. - In Beijing, major developers are acquiring a significant portion of land, leading to a potential regional supply monopoly and a shift towards high-end product development [6]. Group 4: Financial Conditions - Real estate developers' funding reached 64,318 billion yuan in the first eight months of 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 8%, but the decline rate has slowed [8]. - The new housing starts have decreased by 19.5% year-on-year, indicating a potential easing of financial pressures for major developers [8]. - The land market is showing signs of recovery, with the top 100 developers increasing their land acquisition by 31% year-on-year [8][9]. Group 5: Consumer Behavior - The second-hand housing market is characterized by intense competition among individual sellers, leading to a downward price pressure [11][12]. - The decline in personal housing loans indicates a weakened willingness to buy among consumers, despite a potential increase in leverage capacity [13][16]. - Rental prices in cities like Beijing have also decreased, which may further delay potential buyers' plans to enter the market [14].

Core Viewpoint - The real estate market in Xi'an is undergoing a significant restructuring, characterized by a stark contrast between the struggling affordable housing sector and the thriving luxury market, reflecting a shift from scale expansion to quality competition [1][2][6]. Group 1: Market Performance - In the first eight months of 2025, the total sales amount of real estate in Xi'an decreased by approximately 18%, with the top 30 real estate companies achieving sales of 711.20 billion yuan [2][6]. - The average monthly visitor count at sales offices was 476, resulting in only 24 transactions in August, indicating a cooling market [2]. - The average price of improved residential properties in the Chanba International Port area has stabilized above 30,000 yuan/m², with some products reaching 60,000 yuan/m² [1][4]. Group 2: Market Segmentation - The market is experiencing a clear divide, with first-time buyers remaining cautious while high-end projects continue to sell well due to their scarcity [1][3]. - The affordable housing market is facing deep adjustments, with some projects reverting to prices seen eight years ago, such as 8,500 yuan/m² in the Weiyang Lake area [6]. - The luxury segment, particularly in the Olympic Sports and Qujiang areas, is performing robustly, largely unaffected by market fluctuations [4][6]. Group 3: Land Market Dynamics - Xi'an's land market has shown a structural recovery, with residential land transactions totaling 26.6 billion yuan, ranking sixth nationally, and floor prices increasing by 22.57% year-on-year [7][8]. - The land acquisition landscape is shifting, with local enterprises increasingly securing land in core areas, while outer regions face challenges such as unsold land [8][9]. - The financing environment for real estate companies is improving, with bond financing costs decreasing, which is crucial for land acquisition decisions [8][9]. Group 4: Policy Measures - The Xi'an government has implemented a series of policies aimed at stimulating the real estate market, including adjustments to public housing fund policies and easing land payment terms [10][11]. - New measures allow for the extraction of public housing funds for down payments and extend the payment period for land transfer fees, enhancing liquidity for developers [11][12]. - The focus on improving the quality of housing and enhancing market trust through regulatory measures is expected to support market recovery [12].