1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The report comprehensively analyzes the bond market from multiple aspects, including bond market sentiment, institutional duration, leverage ratio, secondary trading, allocation power, primary subscription, and relative valuation, and presents the changes in various indicators last week [1][2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Bond Market Sentiment - Last week, the bond market sentiment index was 112.3, down 0.3 from the previous value; the bond market sentiment diffusion index was 47.7%, up 1.0 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.2 Institutional Duration - As of last Friday, the fund duration was 1.66 years, down 0.01 years from the previous Friday; the rural commercial bank duration was 3.28 years, down 0.08 years from the previous Friday; the insurance duration was 7.57 years, up 0.15 years from the previous Friday [1]. 3.3 Leverage Ratio - Last week, the balance of pledged repurchase was 13.0 trillion yuan, up 0.4 trillion yuan from the previous value; the net lending balance of large - scale banks was 5.0 trillion yuan, up 0.2 trillion yuan from the previous value; the bond market leverage ratio was 103.9%, up 0.1 percentage point from the previous value [1]. 3.4 Secondary Trading - In terms of turnover rate last week, the turnover rate of 30Y treasury bonds was 2.0%, down 0.5 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y treasury bonds was 0.4%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of 10Y CDB bonds was 11.3%, down 6.1 percentage points from the previous value; the turnover rate of ultra - long - term credit bonds was 0.31%, up 0.06 percentage points from the previous value [1]. 3.5 Allocation Power - In terms of bond market allocation power, the newly issued share of bond funds last week was 11.2 billion yuan, up 2.4 billion yuan from the previous value; the stock market risk premium was 0.72%, down 0.07 percentage points from the previous value; the US dollar index was 98.0, down 0.4 from the previous value. The 6M bill transfer discount rate - 6M certificate of deposit rose 3.0bp to - 68.8bp, reflecting an increase in loan demand. In terms of institutional allocation power, the bond allocation index of rural commercial banks was - 27.1%, down 1.3 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of insurance companies was 2.2%, down 52.7 percentage points from the previous value; the bond allocation index of money market funds was - 45.5%, down 91.6 percentage points from the previous value; the allocation index of insurance second - tier perpetual bonds was - 17.2%, down 8.3 percentage points from the previous value [2]. 3.6 Primary Subscription - Last week, the full - field multiple of treasury bonds fell 0.1 times to 2.7 times; the full - field multiple of local bonds fell 4.1 times to 15.2 times; the full - field multiple of CDB bonds was nan times [2]. 3.7 Relative Valuation - Last week, the spread between 10 - year CDB and treasury bonds narrowed 0.8bp to 14.1bp; the spread between 30 - year and 10 - year treasury bonds narrowed 2.8bp to 38.9bp; the spread between old and new 10 - year CDB bonds narrowed 0.2bp to - 7.5bp; the spread between 10 - year local and treasury bonds was 20.8bp, the same as the previous value [2].

杠杆上行，大行保险买长 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 相关报告 证券研究报告/固收定期报告 2025 年 12 月 22 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 1、《大行增仓，基金久期回升》 2025-12-15 2、《大行买短，农商接长》2025-12-08 3、《基金、券商共振抛券》2025-12-01 报告摘要 分析师：严伶怡 本周（12.15-12.19）关注要点：本周资金利率分化，大行融出日均环比增加，基金小 幅加杠杆；存单到期增加，存单到期收益率曲线下移；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自 大行，增持 3Y 以内和 5-10Y 利率债为主，基金净买入规模减少，主要增持短端信用， 大保险继续增配 20-30Y 超长利率债，农商行抛利率债为主。 货币资金面 同业存单与票据 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 联系人：苏鸿婷 本周（12.15-12.19，下同）共有 6685 亿元逆回购到期。周一至周五央行分别投放逆 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 12 月 21 日 在中央经济工作会议"保持必要的财政赤字、债务总规模和支出总量" 的要求下，市场预期 2026 年政府债净供给规模将在 2025年高基数的背景 下，延续同比提升的趋势，尤其是超长政府债的净供给规模，可能将由今 年的 6.4 万亿元，进一步提升至 6.5-7.2 万亿元。银行、保险等配置盘，或 分别受制于利率风险指标、增量保险收入的等约束，理论上无法顺利承接 庞大的超长端供给。因此，市场在 11-15 日自发对此逻辑进行防御性定 价，超长端利率明显上行。然而实操之中，银行的利率风险考核指标并非 是一成不变的刚性变量，监管可以视当下的特殊情况，合理放松考核尺 度，提升银行消化超长政府债供给的能力。另外，央行也可通过一些特殊 方式，帮助银行完成久期指标的短期出表。 ►主线二：对结构性降息的猜想 由于今年以来居民需求、地产量价数据表现普遍不算乐观，因此，年 末市场开始对降息，尤其是LPR结构性降息存在期待。不过，当前贷款利 率降息需要考量的不仅仅是需求变化的问题，还需兼顾银行低息差压力背 后的金融系统风险。截至 2025 年三季度末 ...

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - This week (12.8 - 12.12), the funds' interest rates were divided, the daily average of large - bank lending decreased, and funds slightly increased leverage. The maturity of certificates of deposit (CDs) increased, and the yield curve of CD maturities flattened. In the cash bond trading, the main buyers were large banks, insurance companies increased the allocation of ultra - long - term bonds, funds increased positions in 3 - 5Y and 7 - 10Y interest - rate bonds and credit bonds within 5Y, and rural commercial banks mainly sold bonds [4]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Monetary Fundamentals - There were 1.5118 trillion yuan of reverse repurchase maturities this week (12.8 - 12.12). The central bank cumulatively injected 668.5 billion yuan of reverse repurchases, with a net liquidity injection of 4.7 billion yuan for the whole week. Next week, there will be 60 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases injected and 40 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchases maturing [4][7]. - As of December 12, R001, R007, DR001, and DR007 were 1.35%, 1.51%, 1.27%, and 1.47% respectively, changing by - 2.46BP, 1.12BP, - 2.56BP, and 3.11BP compared to December 5, and were at the 15%, 9%, 10%, and 4% historical quantiles respectively [4][9]. - From December 8 to December 12, the total large - bank lending scale was 21.99 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum lending scale of 4.6 trillion yuan and a daily average lending scale of 4.4 trillion yuan, a decrease of 60 billion yuan compared to the previous week's daily average [4][14]. - The trading volume of pledged repurchase increased. The daily average trading volume was 8.08 trillion yuan, with a daily maximum of 8.25 trillion yuan, a 1.91% increase compared to the previous week's daily average. The proportion of overnight repurchase transactions decreased, with a daily average proportion of 89.4% and a daily maximum of 90.2%, a decrease of 0.09 percentage points compared to the previous week's daily average, and was at the 92.4% quantile as of December 12 [4][16]. 3.2 Certificates of Deposit and Bills - This week (12.8 - 12.12), the issuance scale of CDs increased, and the net financing decreased. The total issuance was 940.93 billion yuan, an increase of 445.82 billion yuan compared to the previous week; the total maturity was 1.0624 trillion yuan, an increase of 613.59 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The net financing was - 121.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 167.77 billion yuan compared to the previous week [4][19]. - By bank type, city commercial banks had the highest CD issuance scale. This week, the CD issuance scales of state - owned banks, joint - stock banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks were 244.69 billion yuan, 272.25 billion yuan, 361.74 billion yuan, and 56.43 billion yuan respectively, changing by 79.09 billion yuan, 173.02 billion yuan, 165.58 billion yuan, and 27.27 billion yuan compared to the previous week [19]. - By term type, the 6M CD issuance scale was the highest. The issuance scales of 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y CDs were 84.21 billion yuan, 257 billion yuan, 401.28 billion yuan, 59.56 billion yuan, and 138.88 billion yuan respectively, changing by 17.61 billion yuan, 196.65 billion yuan, 183.92 billion yuan, 17.62 billion yuan, and 30.02 billion yuan compared to the previous week. The 6M CDs accounted for the highest proportion (42.65%) of the total CD issuance of banks by type, mainly issued by city commercial banks; the 3M term accounted for 27.31%, also mainly issued by city commercial banks [20]. - This week, the CD maturity increased. The total maturity was 1.0624 trillion yuan, an increase of 613.59 billion yuan compared to the previous week. Next week (12/15 - 12/19), the CD maturity will be 1.06285 trillion yuan [23]. - This week, the CD issuance interest rates of each bank and each term showed differentiation. By bank type, as of December 12, the one - year CD issuance interest rates of joint - stock banks, state - owned banks, city commercial banks, and rural commercial banks changed by - 0.33BP, 1.67BP, - 1.69BP, and 0.08BP respectively compared to December 5, and were at the 4%, 6%, 6%, and 5% historical quantiles; by term, as of December 12, the 1M, 3M, and 6M CD issuance interest rates changed by 2.38BP, 3.64BP, and - 0.2BP respectively compared to December 5, and were at the 9%, 8%, and 4% historical quantiles [25]. - This week, most Shibor interest rates increased. As of December 12, the overnight, 1 - week, 2 - week, 1M, and 3M Shibor interest rates changed by - 2.2BP, 3.5BP, 0.1BP, 0.5BP, and 0.5BP respectively compared to December 5, reaching 1.28%, 1.45%, 1.51%, 1.53%, and 1.59% [27]. - This week, the CD maturity yields flattened. As of December 12, the 1M, 3M, 6M, 9M, and 1Y maturity yields of AAA - rated ChinaBond commercial bank CDs were 1.62%, 1.62%, 1.64%, 1.65%, and 1.66% respectively, changing by 3.57BP, 0BP, 0.5BP, - 0.25BP, and 0.5BP compared to December 5 [4][31]. - This week, the bill interest rates increased. As of December 12, the 3M state - owned bank direct discount rate, 3M state - owned bank transfer discount rate, 6M state - owned bank direct discount rate, and 6M state - owned bank transfer discount rate were 0.66%, 0.5%, 0.91%, and 0.95% respectively, changing by - 6BP, 5BP, 10BP, and 8BP compared to December 5 [4][33]. 3.3 Institutional Behavior Tracking - The leverage ratio of broad - based funds slightly increased. As of December 12, the bank leverage ratio, securities leverage ratio, insurance leverage ratio, and broad - based fund leverage ratio were 103.5%, 183.5%, 132.1%, and 104.6% respectively, changing by 0.01BP, 6.88BP, 2.52BP, and 0.32BP compared to December 5, and were at the 28%, 1%, 89%, and 14% historical quantiles respectively [4][36]. - The central value of the net - buying duration of funds rebounded, and wealth management and insurance increased their durations. As of December 12, the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of funds was - 3.52 years, a decrease from - 8.48 years on December 5, and was at the 4% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of wealth management was 3.80 years, an increase compared to December 5, and was at the 95% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of rural commercial banks was 1.14 years, a decrease compared to December 5, and was at the 56% historical quantile; the weighted average net - buying duration (MA = 10) of insurance was 12.23 years, a decrease compared to December 5, and was at the 87% historical quantile [4][38]. - The inter - bank leverage ratio increased. As of December 12, the total inter - bank bond - market leverage ratio increased by 0.34 percentage points to 106.68% compared to December 5, and was at the 45.30% historical quantile since 2021 [39]. - This week, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased. As of December 12, the duration of medium - and long - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.16 years to 3.13 years compared to December 5, and was at the 54% historical quantile since this year; the duration of short - term pure - bond funds increased by 0.20 years to 1.82 years compared to December 5, and was at the 89% historical quantile since this year [45].

曾因债台高筑被称为"Debtflix"的流媒体巨头Netflix奈飞正计划大规模举债，用于收购华纳兄弟探索公 司。尽管将新增数百亿美元债务，但分析师认为其信用状况已今非昔比。 根据目前的收购协议，奈飞已获得华尔街银行提供的590亿美元无担保过桥贷款，其中富国银行承诺提 供的295亿美元贷款，是迄今为止单家银行在投资级过桥贷款中提供的最大份额。 根据彭博行业研究的测算，如果奈飞的收购交易按最新条款完成，奈飞明年预计将产生约204亿美元的 息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)。 届时净债务与EBITDA的比率约为3.7倍，到2027年这一杠杆率可能降至2倍多的水平，这对投资级公司 而言属于正常范围。彭博行业研究电信和媒体债务分析师Stephen Flynn表示： 总体而言，奈飞信用评级非常非常高，他们拥有不断增长的收入、EBITDA和充足的现金 流，因此合并后的公司能够相当快速地降低杠杆率。 Allspring Global美国投资级信贷研究主管Jim Fitzpatrick表示： 目前，华尔街正寻求从期待已久的并购复苏中赚取丰厚的手续费。不过此类临时融资贷款通常最终会被 更长期的债务所取代。 奈飞有资格进行这样规 ...

Group 1: Wealth Management Scale - The wealth management scale increased by CNY 960 billion to CNY 33.61 trillion from December 1-5, indicating a seasonal rebound[1] - The scale is expected to face pressure as December is a traditional quarter-end month, with weekly reductions anticipated starting from the second week of December[1] - Historical data suggests that the weekly decline in wealth management scale could reach CNY 3,000-4,000 billion by the last week of December[1] Group 2: Leverage Rates - The average leverage level in the interbank system rose from 107.13% to 107.37% during the week[2] - Exchange leverage levels slightly decreased from 123.01% to 122.99%, showing a downward trend throughout the week[2] - Non-bank institutions showed insufficient motivation to increase leverage, with their average leverage level declining from 112.19% to 112.10%[2] Group 3: Bond Fund Duration - The duration of interest rate-based medium and long-term bond funds compressed from 3.49 years to 3.36 years, marking a continuous decline over five weeks[3] - In contrast, the duration of credit-based medium and long-term bond funds increased from 2.13 years to 2.20 years[3] - Short and medium-term bond funds saw their durations extend, with average durations rising from 1.38 years to 1.42 years for medium-term funds and from 0.76 years to 0.79 years for short-term funds[3] Group 4: Risk Alerts - Potential risks include unexpected adjustments in monetary policy, liquidity changes, and fiscal policy alterations[4]

基金、券商共振抛券 ——流动性与机构行为跟踪 证券研究报告/固收定期报告 2025 年 12 月 01 日 分析师：吕品 执业证书编号：S0740525060003 Email：lvpin@zts.com.cn 执业证书编号：S0740525070001 Email：yanly@zts.com.cn Email：suht@zts.com.cn 2025-11-24 2、《债基久期再回落》2025-11-20 3 、 《 震 荡 行 情 下 的 机 构 行 为 》 2025-11-16 分析师：严伶怡 本周（11.24-11.28）关注要点：本周资金利率分化，大行融出日均环比增加，基金小 幅降杠杆；存单到期减少，存单到期收益率曲线走陡；现券成交来看，买盘主力来自 大行，增持 1-3Y 利率债为主，基金、券商是主要抛盘，其中基金主要卖出 7-10Y 和 20-30Y 利率债，保险继续增配 20-30Y 超长利率债。 货币资金面 同业存单与票据 机构行为跟踪 请务必阅读正文之后的重要声明部分 报告摘要 联系人：苏鸿婷 相关报告 1、《资金波动，大行融出下行》 本周（11.24-11.28，下同）共有 16760 亿 ...

证券研究报告|宏观研究报告 [Table_Date] 2025 年 11 月 30 日 [Table_Title] 11 月，理财规模温和增长 [Table_Summary] ►11 月，理财规模小增 700+亿元 非银机构需求回升，非银机构开始加杠杆。平均杠杆水平由前一 周的 111.71%升至 112.19 %。日度来看，由周一的 111.83%逐步加杠 杆至周四 112.55%的区间高点，周五小幅回调 0.62pct 至 111.92%。 ►债基久期继续压缩 11 月 24-28 日，或受基金赎回相关传闻扰动，债市仍然维持震荡格 局。在此背景下，各机构对久期的博弈维持谨慎，利率型与信用型中长债 基继续压缩久期。按照稳定模型计算，利率型中长债基久期周度平均值由 前一周的 3.51 年压缩至 3.49 年，信用型中长债基久期周度平均值则由前 一周的 2.14 年压缩至 2.13 年。 与此同时，中短债基金久期也在压缩，久期均值由前一周的 1.40年压 缩至 1.38 年；短债基金久期中枢则由前一周的 0.75 年小幅升至 0.76年。 风险提示 本周（24-28 日）理财规模转降，环比降 1328 亿元至 ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Sunoco reported a record third quarter with adjusted EBITDA of $496 million, an increase from $470 million a year ago, excluding one-time transaction-related expenses [4] - Distributable cash flow, as adjusted, was $326 million for the third quarter [4] - The company declared a distribution of $0.9202 per common unit, representing a 1.25% increase compared to the previous quarter, resulting in a trailing 12-month coverage ratio of 1.8 times [5][6] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - In the fuel distribution segment, adjusted EBITDA was $238 million, compared to $214 million in the second quarter and $253 million in the third quarter of last year [8] - Volumes in the fuel distribution segment reached 2.3 billion gallons, up 5% from the previous quarter and 7% year-over-year [8] - The pipeline system segment reported adjusted EBITDA of $182 million, an increase from $177 million in the second quarter and $147 million in the third quarter of last year [10] - The terminal segment delivered adjusted EBITDA of $76 million, compared to $73 million in the second quarter and $70 million in the third quarter of last year [11] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company has become the largest independent fuel distributor in the Americas following the acquisition of Parkland Corporation, which is expected to provide significant financial benefits [2][3] - The combined entity is projected to deliver over 15 billion gallons of refined products, enhancing its position in the Atlantic Basin [14] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The immediate priorities for the company include integrating Parkland and restoring the balance sheet to a four times leverage ratio within 12 months [15] - The company expects over $250 million in synergies from the Parkland acquisition, with a focus on expense management and optimizing gross profit [15][20] - The company aims for free cash flow to exceed $1 billion annually in the near future, enhancing its capital allocation strategy [16] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed confidence in achieving another record year, with all business segments performing well [13] - The company anticipates that the fundamentals for the fuel distribution business remain strong, despite broader market challenges [52] - Management highlighted the importance of scale and key assets in maintaining a competitive advantage in the market [14] Other Important Information - The company successfully completed the acquisition of Parkland Corporation for approximately $9 billion, enhancing its financial position and scale [2][3] - Sunoco Corp will begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange under the ticker SUNC, broadening investment options [4] Q&A Session Summary Question: Synergies from the Parkland acquisition - Management confirmed a floor of over $250 million in synergies, with both expense and commercial opportunities identified [18][20] Question: Dividend equivalency for Sunoco Corp - Management stated that minimal corporate income taxes are expected for at least five years, supporting the distribution strategy [23] Question: Growth potential for distribution - Management indicated that the acquisition of Parkland positions the company for meaningful distribution growth beyond the current target of at least 5% [26][27] Question: Impact of Hurricane Melissa - The business impact from Hurricane Melissa was largely limited to Jamaica, with no material impact expected on fourth quarter results [29][30] Question: Opportunities in West Coast terminaling assets - Management expressed optimism about leveraging the refinery and terminal assets in response to potential market shifts due to refinery closures [33][34] Question: 2026 guidance and expectations - Management plans to provide guidance early next year, emphasizing strong performance from both the Parkland and legacy businesses [41][42]

Core Insights - Avolta reported a total turnover of CHF 10.6 billion for the first nine months of 2025, reflecting a growth of 5.4% [3] - The EBITDA margin reached 10.2%, marking an expansion of 30 basis points compared to the same period last year, continuing a trend of 16 consecutive quarters of year-on-year EBITDA margin expansion [3] - The company achieved its highest ever equity free cash flow of CHF 503 million in the first nine months [3] - Leverage decreased from 2x to 1.9x, surpassing expectations, while maintaining a growing policy of dividend distribution and share buybacks for the second consecutive year [3]