在本周一放话考虑"所有稳定选项"后，美国财长贝森特透露了支持阿根廷的细节，力挺米莱政府渡过选 举关键期。 贝森特表示，美国支持阿根廷和米莱，他并不认为市场对米莱失去了信心，只是人们想起了之前的危 机。他说："我们不会让市场波动阻碍米莱推行重大的经济改革。" 美东时间9月24日周三，贝森特公布，美国正与阿根廷就一项200亿美元的货币互换协议进行谈判，并准 备购买该国的美元债券，为阿根廷总统米莱在下月关键中期选举前提供"桥梁"支持。这一举措凸显特朗 普政府对其自由主义盟友的坚定支持，旨在防范比索遭遇挤兑风险。 受贝森特最近的美国支持表态提振，本周阿根廷金融市场强势反弹。比索兑美元汇率周三盘中一度涨 2.7%，美元债券全线上涨，其中2035年到期债券上涨约4美分，完全抹去布宜诺斯艾利斯地方选举以来 的跌幅。这一支持承诺有效缓解了市场对阿根廷流动性困难的担忧。 分析师认为，美国的财政支持将显著提升阿根廷在2026年初重返国际债券市场的可能性。Adcap Grupo Financiero首席经济学家Federico Filippини表示，此举消除了米莱经济计划面临的流动性困难不确定 性。 同在周三，媒体获悉，阿根廷央 ...

Core Points - The Argentine government announced the temporary cancellation of export withholding taxes on agricultural products, including grains, beef, and poultry, effective until October 31 [1] - This measure aims to increase the supply of US dollars in the market by encouraging the agricultural sector to sell more products [1] - The Argentine peso has depreciated over 10% against the US dollar in the past month, prompting the central bank to intervene with $1.1 billion in foreign reserves [1] Summary by Category Government Actions - The temporary cancellation of export withholding taxes is a response to ongoing financial market turmoil and aims to stabilize the exchange rate ahead of the upcoming midterm elections on October 26 [1] - Previously, on July 26, the government permanently reduced withholding tax rates on various agricultural products, including beef and poultry from 6.75% to 5%, corn and sorghum from 12% to 9.5%, sunflower seeds from 7.5% to 5.5%, soybeans from 33% to 26%, and soybean by-products from 31% to 24.5% [1] Market Impact - The cancellation of export taxes is expected to boost agricultural sales, thereby increasing the dollar supply in the market [1] - Analysts suggest that while this measure may alleviate immediate pressures, it does not address the underlying political crisis [1]

Group 1 - The Argentine stock market surged by 6% following U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bansen's supportive signals amid recent market sell-offs in Argentina [1][3] - Bansen committed to providing "all stabilization options" to Argentine President Javier Milei, including currency swap lines, direct repurchases of local currency, and utilizing the U.S. Treasury's Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF) [1][6] - Following the announcement, the Argentine stock market experienced a peak increase of 7% during trading [3] Group 2 - U.S. support will complement a $20 billion program agreed upon with the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which was finalized by Milei in April [6] - The Argentine central bank sold $1.1 billion in three days to support the peso, while sovereign bonds faced significant pressure, marking the worst performance in emerging markets [6] - The Milei administration temporarily suspended export taxes on agricultural products to attract more U.S. dollars, indicating a strategy to reduce the depletion of international reserves [6] Group 3 - The upcoming midterm elections on October 26 represent a significant test for Milei, with rising disapproval ratings and a halved lead over the Peronist opposition party [6] - Concerns about Milei's governance have intensified due to bribery allegations, a recent electoral defeat, and challenges to his budget cuts in popular spending areas like education and healthcare [6][8] - Economic recovery under Milei has shown signs of weakness, with a slight contraction in Q2 and expectations of further decline in Q3, alongside high unemployment rates [8]

新华财经雅加达9月1日电 印度尼西亚银行货币与证券资产管理部负责人1日声明，印尼央行将通过市场 运作，维持印尼卢比稳定、保证市场流动性充足，确保印尼卢比汇率与其基本价值一致。 对此，印尼央行计划通过离岸／在岸无本金交割远期外汇（NDF）、现货、债券市场的"三重干预"策 略，以及回购交易、外汇掉期及贷款工具向银行提供流动性支持，以稳定印尼卢比汇率。 （文章来源：新华财经） 9月1日开盘，印尼卢比兑美元汇率报16472。与8月29日下午收盘价相比，印尼卢比上涨28点，涨幅为 0.17%。 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that Indonesia's economy showed strong performance in Q2, with GDP growth exceeding expectations driven by investment, household spending, and export growth [1] - The central bank expects the full-year economic growth for 2025 to be above the midpoint of the target range of 4.6% to 5.4%, with improved growth momentum anticipated in the second half of the year [1] - Despite global economic pressures, particularly from U.S. tariffs affecting global trade, Indonesia's economy demonstrates resilience [1] Group 2 - Inflation remains low, with July's inflation rate indicating that core inflation is expected to stay within target ranges, reflecting significant domestic capacity and manageable import inflation risks [1] - The central bank maintains its expectation for low inflation rates in 2025 and 2026, aligning with targets [1] - The central bank has cut policy rates by 100 basis points since September of the previous year, emphasizing the need for commercial banks to lower loan rates to support credit expansion and economic growth [1][2] Group 3 - The central bank has actively purchased government bonds to enhance market liquidity, with a total purchase amounting to 186.06 trillion Indonesian Rupiah as of August 19 [2] - The central bank is adjusting liquidity management tools, as indicated by a significant decrease in the outstanding balance of Indonesian Rupiah Securities (SRBI) from 916.97 trillion Rupiah at the beginning of 2025 to 720.01 trillion Rupiah by August 15 [2] - The Indonesian Rupiah has shown strength, supported by capital inflows and export revenue conversion, with the central bank implementing a "triple intervention" strategy to maintain exchange rate stability [2] Group 4 - The central bank maintains its current account deficit forecast for 2025 at 0.5% to 1.3% of GDP, with Q2's current account deficit remaining at a low level, indicating a robust external balance [3]

Group 1 - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) released the monetary policy execution report for Q2 2025, indicating a stable economic performance with a GDP growth of 5.3% year-on-year in the first half of the year [1] - The central bank maintains a moderately accommodative monetary policy stance, utilizing various tools to create a favorable monetary environment for sustained economic recovery [1] Group 2 - The report emphasizes the importance of promoting a reasonable rebound in prices as a key consideration for monetary policy, highlighting the focus on price trends [2] - In May, the PBOC lowered the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points, injecting approximately 1 trillion yuan of long-term liquidity into the market, and also reduced policy interest rates [2] - The new corporate and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 45 and 60 basis points year-on-year, respectively, from January to June [2] Group 3 - The report provides a clearer stance on exchange rate policies, emphasizing a managed floating exchange rate system based on market supply and demand [3] - The RMB exchange rate remained stable, with the midpoint against the USD at the end of June being roughly the same as at the end of the previous year [3] - The PBOC aims to prevent excessive fluctuations in the exchange rate and maintain it at a reasonable and balanced level, demonstrating a strong commitment to exchange rate stability [3]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the reports emphasizes the effectiveness of counter-cyclical monetary policy adjustments, with notable growth in financial totals and a stable RMB exchange rate [1][2] - As of June, the social financing scale and broad money supply (M2) increased by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the RMB loan balance reaching 268.6 trillion yuan [1] - New corporate loans and personal housing loan rates decreased by approximately 45 basis points and 60 basis points year-on-year in the first half of the year, indicating an optimization in credit structure [1] Group 2 - The next steps involve implementing a moderately loose monetary policy, ensuring liquidity remains ample, and aligning social financing scale and money supply growth with economic growth and price level expectations [2] - The report highlights the importance of maintaining reasonable price levels and improving the interest rate adjustment framework to lower overall financing costs [2] - The central bank aims to enhance the dual functions of monetary policy tools, supporting sectors like technological innovation, consumption, small and micro enterprises, and stabilizing foreign trade [2] Group 3 - The exploration of expanding the central bank's macro-prudential and financial stability functions is crucial for maintaining market stability and preventing systemic financial risks [3]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a moderately loose monetary policy to support high-quality economic development and maintain stability in the financial environment [2][5]. Monetary Policy Implementation - The PBOC has adopted various monetary policy tools to ensure reasonable growth in money and credit, including a 0.5 percentage point reduction in the reserve requirement ratio in May, providing approximately 1 trillion yuan in long-term liquidity [2][4]. - The central bank has lowered policy interest rates by 0.1 percentage points and structural monetary policy tool rates by 0.25 percentage points in May, which has contributed to a decrease in both personal housing fund loan rates and overall financing costs [2][3]. Credit Structure Optimization - The establishment of a 500 billion yuan re-loan for service consumption and elderly care, along with an increase of 300 billion yuan in re-loan quotas for technological innovation, aims to support key domestic demand sectors [3][7]. - The PBOC is focusing on optimizing the credit structure to enhance support for consumption and technological innovation [3][7]. Financial Stability and Risk Management - The PBOC is committed to risk prevention and resolution, enhancing the monitoring and early warning systems for financial risks, and ensuring stable growth in financial aggregates [4][6]. - As of June, the total social financing stock and broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.9% and 8.3% year-on-year, respectively, with the balance of RMB loans at 268.6 trillion yuan [4]. Future Directions - The PBOC plans to maintain a balance between short-term and long-term goals, ensuring the stability of the banking system while supporting the real economy [5][6]. - The central bank will continue to refine the interest rate adjustment framework and enhance the transmission mechanism of monetary policy to lower financing costs [6][7].

Core Viewpoint - The stability of the RMB exchange rate amidst US interest rate cuts indicates a strategic financial collaboration rather than a reactionary approach [1][3][10] Group 1: US Interest Rate Cuts - The Federal Reserve initiated its first interest rate cut of 25 basis points in June 2024, signaling a focus on stabilizing growth and market conditions [3][10] - The European Central Bank also cut rates by 25 basis points simultaneously, indicating a coordinated response to the US monetary policy [3][5] Group 2: China's Monetary Policy - China made slight adjustments to its policy interest rates around the same time as the US and Europe, aiming to stabilize market expectations and maintain the interest rate differential with the US [5][9] - The RMB exchange rate remained around 7.2 against the USD, reflecting a controlled depreciation that mitigated capital outflow risks [7][9] Group 3: Global Capital Flows - Following the US rate cuts, over $120 billion flowed into European high-grade bond markets, while Asian emerging markets attracted less than $25 billion, highlighting a shift in capital preferences [7][9] - The strategy employed by China was to intentionally lower its "attractiveness" to prevent large-scale capital volatility, thereby stabilizing the global financial system [9][13] Group 4: Long-term Implications - The approach taken by China is viewed as a "silent financial collaboration," which helped the US stabilize its market without causing significant disruptions in the global financial architecture [10][15] - By not aggressively adjusting the RMB exchange rate, China avoided exacerbating global financial instability, which could have led to larger systemic risks [13][15][17]

Group 1 - The Deputy Chief Cabinet Secretary of Japan, Aoki Kazuhiko, refrained from commenting on the foreign exchange market [1] - Emphasized the importance of stable fluctuations in exchange rates reflecting the fundamentals [1] - Stated that there will be continued close monitoring of interest rate trends [1]