石油沥青日报 | 2025-09-23 台风天气抑制需求释放，沥青市场情绪偏弱 市场分析 1、9月22日沥青期货下午盘收盘行情：主力BU2511合约下午收盘价3401元/吨，较昨日结算价下跌0.7%；持仓236341 手，环比增加4241手，成交167401手，环比减少12441手。 2、卓创资讯重交沥青现货结算价：东北，3756-4086 元/吨；山东，3480—3770元/吨；华南，3470—3540元/吨； 华东，3550—3650元/吨。 沥青供需两弱格局延续，但局部供应增量强于需求端。具体来看，随着油价下跌，炼厂利润边际修复，沥青装置 开工率与产量一度提升。考虑到中小型炼厂仍受制于原油配额紧张、消费税抵扣比例下滑等因素，产能释放受到 限制，因此沥青整体产量增长空间有限。需求方面，进入9月份，受制于资金与天气因素，终端消费改善幅度有限， 旺季特征不明显，区域存在分化。北方地区的赶工需求为市场提供一定支撑，相比之下南方需求表现更弱，本周 台风天气形成新的阻力。整体来看，目前沥青基本面表现一般，盘面或维持弱势震荡运行。 策略 单边：震荡偏弱 跨期：无 跨品种：无 期现：无 期权：无 风险 | 图1：山东重 ...

Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market is experiencing increased supply due to the resumption of production in some refineries in North China, while demand remains weak due to rainfall and funding shortages, leading to price adjustments [1] Supply and Demand - Supply has increased as some refineries in North China resume asphalt production - Demand has not exceeded expectations during the peak season due to rainfall and funding shortages - Inventory structure has improved, with stable factory inventories and reduced pressure, while social inventories are being depleted [1] Price Movements - Asphalt prices have seen a decline of 10 to 100 CNY/ton in regions such as the Yangtze River Delta, Shandong, South China, and Southwest Sichuan-Chongqing, while prices in North China have increased by 10 CNY/ton [1] - The main refineries in the Yangtze River Delta have reduced transportation prices by 100 CNY/ton, and some brands in Shandong have lowered prices, leading to a drop in mainstream transaction prices [1] Cost Factors - OPEC's increase in production has led to a decrease in crude oil costs, which may influence asphalt pricing [1] - The current peak season has not shown extraordinary performance, but stabilization in crude oil prices may allow for bullish positioning in the future [1] Market Outlook - In the medium to long term, conditions for construction are expected to improve as autumn approaches, despite the anticipated rainfall in the short term - The asphalt crack spread remains high due to concerns over potential U.S. military actions against Venezuela [1] - The valuation of asphalt is currently high compared to crude oil, with a weakening trend in the crack spread [1]

Group 1: Report Basic Information - The report is an asphalt daily report dated September 5, 2025 [1][2] - The research team includes Li Jie (crude oil and asphalt), Ren Junchi (PTA, MEG), Peng Haozhou (carbon market and industrial silicon), Peng Jinglin (polyolefins), Liu Youran (pulp), and Feng Zeren (glass and soda ash) [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions - In the futures market, BU2510 opened at 3530 yuan/ton, closed at 3468 yuan/ton, with a high of 3533 yuan/ton, a low of 3463 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.14%, and a trading volume of 12.81 million lots. BU2511 opened at 3516 yuan/ton, closed at 3442 yuan/ton, with a high of 3522 yuan/ton, a low of 3439 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.71%, and a trading volume of 18.95 million lots [6] - In the spot market, prices in North and South China slightly increased, prices in Shandong decreased, and prices in other regions were generally stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices limited the upside of asphalt spot prices [6] - On the supply side, some refineries in Shandong switched to producing residual oil without a clear plan to resume asphalt production. However, due to the expected increase in asphalt output from Hebei Xinhai at the end of the month and the planned resumption of asphalt production by Ningbo Keyuan around the 28th, the average operating load rate of asphalt plants is expected to rebound [6] - On the demand side, the weather cleared up in South China, and with the boost of market sentiment, the trading atmosphere and the shipment volume of key storage areas improved to some extent [6] - Pay attention to the implementation of demand. Oil prices are rising due to geopolitical factors, and arbitrage should be put on hold for now [6] Group 3: Industry News - In the South China market, the mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3490 - 3550 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 5 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. Sinopec's Maoming and Guangzhou raised their trucking settlement prices by 50 yuan/ton yesterday, driving up the high - end prices in the South China market. However, today's decline in the asphalt futures price led some spot - futures traders to sell near - month contracts, and the spot prices of social inventories slightly decreased. The market atmosphere was mainly wait - and - see [7] - In the Shandong market, the mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3490 - 3820 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The decline in international oil prices led to a drop in asphalt futures prices, weakening the spot market atmosphere. Some refineries and traders lowered their quotes, driving down the prices in the Shandong market. In the short term, Dongming Petrochemical and Jincheng Petrochemical have plans to switch to asphalt production, increasing local resource supply and leaving asphalt prices without support [7] Group 4: Data Overview - The data sources for various figures (including Shandong asphalt spot prices, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts) are wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][11][13]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand, and the asphalt futures will fluctuate in the near term. The supply side shows a decline in the start - up rate and an expected increase in production in September. The demand side is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and investment data. The cost - side support of asphalt is limited due to the low - level fluctuation of crude oil prices [1]. Summary According to Related Catalogs Strategy Analysis - The operation strategy is range operation. The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month, 3.8 percentage points higher than the same period last year. In September, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.686 million tons, an increase of 273,000 tons or 11.3% month - on - month and an increase of 683,000 tons or 34.1% year - on - year. The start - up rates of downstream industries were mostly stable last week, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month. The national asphalt shipments increased by 11.17% to 263,800 tons week - on - week. The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased this week but is still at the lowest level in the same period in recent years. The resumption of oil extraction in Venezuela by Chevron may reduce the discount for China's purchase of asphalt raw materials. There are factors both promoting and restricting asphalt demand, and the cost - side support of asphalt is limited [1]. Futures and Spot Market - In the futures market, the asphalt futures 2510 contract rose 1.17% to 3,551 yuan/ton today, with the lowest price at 3,547 yuan/ton and the highest price at 3,582 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 3,747 to 105,860 lots [2]. - In the basis market, the mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3,540 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 10 contract fell to - 11 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - On the supply side, the start - up rate of asphalt decreased by 1.4 percentage points to 29.3% month - on - month due to the shutdown or conversion to residue production of some devices. The start - up rate is still at a relatively low level in the same period in recent years [1][4]. - Investment data shows that from January to July, the national highway construction investment decreased by 8.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased slightly compared with that from January to June 2025 but was still negative. From January to July 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased to - 2.0%, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to 3.2% [4]. - As of the week of August 29, the start - up rates of downstream asphalt industries were mostly stable, with the road asphalt start - up rate remaining unchanged at 28.33% month - on - month, slightly higher than the same period last year, restricted by funds and weather [1][4]. - The government has proposed a more proactive fiscal policy. As of the end of July, the stock of social financing scale was 431.26 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 9%; the M2 balance was 329.94 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.8%; and the balance of RMB loans was 268.51 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.9%. The acceleration of government bond issuance was the main reason for the increase in the growth rate of the social financing scale [4]. Inventory - As of the week of August 29, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.7 percentage points to 15.5% compared with the week of August 22, remaining at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [5].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The price of oil is slightly stronger, while the crack spread of asphalt is declining [1] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [9] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Market**: The closing prices of BU2509 and BU2510 increased by 0.69% and 0.52% respectively during the day and 0.43% during the night session. The trading volume of BU2509 decreased by 1,274 lots, while that of BU2510 increased by 16,086 lots. The open interest of BU2509 decreased by 2,654 lots, and that of BU2510 decreased by 3,045 lots. The total market warehouse receipts of asphalt remained unchanged at 72,650 lots [1] - **Spot Market**: The wholesale price of asphalt in Shandong decreased by 10 yuan/ton to 3,500 yuan/ton, and the wholesale price in the Yangtze River Delta remained unchanged at 3,720 yuan/ton. The refinery operating rate increased by 1.31% to 36.92%, and the refinery inventory rate increased by 2.02% to 27.81% [1] - **Spread**: The basis (Shandong - 09) decreased by 34 yuan/ton to -20 yuan/ton, the 09 - 10 inter - period spread increased by 6 yuan/ton to 37 yuan/ton, the Shandong - South China spread remained unchanged at 20 yuan/ton, and the East China - South China spread increased by 10 yuan/ton to 240 yuan/ton [1] 2. Market Information - In September 2025, the domestic asphalt production plan of local refineries is 1.557 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 275,000 tons (21.5%) and a year - on - year increase of 467,000 tons (42.9%) [15] - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 391,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 2.7%. The shipment volume in the East China region decreased significantly, while that in the Northwest region increased [15] - From August 14 - 20, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 30.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 2.2% [15] - From August 13 - 19, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt enterprises was 17.0%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.1% and a year - on - year increase of 2.6% [15]

Core Viewpoint - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals shows mixed performance, with asphalt futures experiencing a slight decline, reflecting broader market sentiments influenced by geopolitical developments and weather conditions [1]. Market Performance - As of the report, the main asphalt futures contract decreased by 0.75%, settling at 3448.00 yuan/ton [1]. - The asphalt spot prices in various regions, including Northeast, North China, Shandong, South China, and Sichuan-Chongqing, have shown a downward trend, while other areas remain stable [1]. Geopolitical Influences - Recent meetings between the U.S. and Russia were productive but did not result in new agreements, with President Trump refraining from imposing further sanctions on Russia [1]. - The U.S.-Ukraine discussions are ongoing, with potential territorial exchanges being considered [1]. - Hamas has confirmed a ceasefire agreement in the Gaza Strip, which may also impact market sentiments [1]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The typhoon "Yangliu" has caused intermittent rainfall, affecting demand in certain provinces, leading to a weak market outlook [1]. - Despite a temporary decline in overall domestic asphalt supply and a slight increase in demand in northern regions, downstream purchasing remains low, lacking significant positive support [1]. - Competition among brands persists, particularly in southern regions where weather conditions have hindered demand [1]. Future Market Outlook - Analysts suggest that the positive developments in U.S.-Russia talks and the significant downward pressure on crude oil prices will likely weaken asphalt costs, indicating a continued weak and volatile market for asphalt [1].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the asphalt industry is not explicitly mentioned in the report. Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The terminal demand for asphalt remains weak, and the market driving force is limited. The supply - demand pattern of asphalt is generally in a weak state, with inventory at a low level and no significant signal of inventory accumulation. The short - term surplus pressure in the market is limited, but the improvement of terminal demand is weak due to weather factors, and speculative demand also needs to recover. The price of the asphalt market is closely related to oil prices, and if oil prices continue to fall, the asphalt market price will also weaken further [1]. - The strategy for asphalt investment is that the unilateral trend is expected to be weakly volatile, while there are no strategies for inter - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options [2]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - On August 13, the closing price of the main BU2510 contract of asphalt futures in the afternoon session was 3,503 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan/ton or 0.02% compared to the previous day's settlement price. The open interest was 224,999 lots, a net increase of 1,869 lots compared to the previous day, and the trading volume was 123,189 lots, a net increase of 2,907 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - The spot settlement prices of heavy - traffic asphalt from Zhuochuang Information are as follows: Northeast: 3,880 - 4,086 yuan/ton; Shandong: 3,520 - 3,870 yuan/ton; South China: 3,520 - 3,550 yuan/ton; East China: 3,600 - 3,800 yuan/ton. The spot price of asphalt in the North China market increased yesterday, while the spot prices in the East China and South China regions decreased, and the prices in other regions remained stable for the time being [1]. Strategy - Unilateral: Weakly volatile - Inter - period: None - Cross - variety: None - Spot - futures: None - Options: None [2] Figures - The report includes figures related to asphalt spot prices in different regions (Shandong, East China, South China, North China, Southwest, Northwest), asphalt futures prices (index, main contract, near - month contract, near - month spread), trading volume and open interest of asphalt futures, domestic asphalt production (weekly, independent refineries, different regions), domestic asphalt consumption in different fields (road, waterproofing, coking, ship fuel), and asphalt inventories (refinery, social) [3].

Report Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 7, 2025 [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The supply growth of asphalt is relatively limited, and the demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be observed. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Section Summaries 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Futures market: For BU2509, the opening price was 3527 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3555 yuan/ton, the highest was 3559 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3527 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.34%, and the trading volume was 4.92 million lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3516 yuan/ton, the closing price was 3529 yuan/ton, the highest was 3530 yuan/ton, the lowest was 3505 yuan/ton, the increase was 0.17%, and the trading volume was 13.44 million lots [6] - Spot market: The spot prices of asphalt in North China, Shandong, and Sichuan-Chongqing markets declined, while that in South China market increased, and the prices in other regions remained stable. The overall trend of crude oil prices and asphalt futures was weak, and the spot market of asphalt was filled with strong wait-and-see sentiment [6] - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound at the beginning of the month. The total planned asphalt production of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: It is expected that the demand will continue to recover, but the extent remains to be observed. In August, precipitation in North China and Northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand of some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] 2. Industry News - Shandong market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 Grade A asphalt was 3550 - 3970 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. International oil prices and asphalt futures continued to be weak, and downstream receiving sentiment was cautious. Refineries and traders continued to lower their quotes, driving down the market price. The maintenance of Lanqiao Petrochemical was postponed, and some refineries planned to switch to asphalt production, so the supply of resources in Shandong was relatively abundant [8] - South China market: The mainstream transaction price of 70 Grade A asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, an increase of 10 yuan/ton compared with the previous working day. The asphalt futures price fluctuated at a low level, and there were low-price contract resources traded by spot-futures traders. In addition, Jingbo Hainan warehouse released forward contracts, and the market contract volume was relatively abundant. However, there was concentrated rainfall in South China recently, and the rigid demand was weak. Traders mainly held up prices, and the spot quotation was 3580 - 3600 yuan/ton [8] 3. Data Overview - The report provides data charts on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][20]

Group 1: General Information - Report Title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [2] - Research Team: Energy and Chemical Research Team [4] Group 2: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Market Review - Futures Market: BU2509 opened at 3658 yuan/ton, closed at 3573 yuan/ton, with a high of 3659 yuan/ton, a low of 3566 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.16%, and a trading volume of 16.91 million lots. BU2510 opened at 3657 yuan/ton, closed at 3556 yuan/ton, with a high of 3657 yuan/ton, a low of 3547 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.39%, and a trading volume of 14.03 million lots [6] - Spot Market: Asphalt spot prices in the northwest and northeast markets rose slightly, while those in the north China, Shandong, south China, and Sichuan-Chongqing regions fell. The east China market remained stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures prices dropped, which had a significant negative impact on the spot market [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Qilu Petrochemical, Henan Fengli, and Jiangsu Xinhai will resume asphalt production in early August, and the plant operating rate will rebound. The total asphalt production plan of domestic refineries in August is 2.433 million tons [6] - Demand: Demand is expected to continue to recover, but the extent remains to be seen. In August, precipitation in north China and northeast China is still relatively high, but the overall weather conditions have improved. Coupled with the rush demand for some projects, it is generally beneficial to demand [6] Operation Suggestions - The growth of asphalt supply is relatively limited, and demand is in the peak season, but the actual performance remains to be seen. Considering the performance of oil prices, it is expected that the unilateral price of asphalt will mainly fluctuate. In terms of arbitrage, consider going long on the crack spread after the upward trend of oil prices slows down [7] Group 3: Industry News - South China Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3580 - 3630 yuan/ton, a decrease of 5 yuan/ton from the previous working day. Due to the large planned production volume of Guangzhou Petrochemical, the road and shipping prices of Guangzhou Petrochemical were lowered by 50 yuan/ton over the weekend. Today, it mainly shipped by sea, and there was no road transport resource available for circulation. In addition, the decline in asphalt futures led to the start of transactions of low-price contracts of spot-futures traders in the south China social inventory, driving the spot price in south China to decline slightly [8] - Shandong Market: The mainstream transaction price of 70A grade asphalt was 3590 - 4070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton from the previous working day. The significant decline in international oil prices led to the decline of asphalt futures, which had a negative impact on the spot market from the cost side and market sentiment. Although the trading in the spot market continued to be stable, the quotes of some refineries and traders still decreased, resulting in the decline of the spot price in the Shandong market [8] Group 4: Data Overview - The report provides data on asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt crack spread, asphalt social inventory, Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [9][14][17][20]

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Name: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Date: August 1, 2025 [2] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoint - The asphalt market continues to show a pattern of weak supply and demand. With oil prices rebounding due to macro and geopolitical support, a short - long strategy for asphalt is recommended, with timely profit - taking [7] Group 4: Market Review and Operation Suggestions Futures Market - For futures contracts BU2509, the opening price was 3654 yuan/ton, closing at 3659 yuan/ton, with a high of 3682 yuan/ton, a low of 3650 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.30%, and a trading volume of 14.56 million lots. For BU2510, the opening price was 3654 yuan/ton, closing at 3649 yuan/ton, with a high of 3667 yuan/ton, a low of 3637 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 0.47%, and a trading volume of 8.40 million lots [6] Spot Market - In the spot market, the asphalt price in Shandong showed a slight increase, while prices in other regions remained stable. The strong trends of crude oil and asphalt futures positively influenced the spot market sentiment [6] Supply and Demand - Supply: Some refineries in the Northeast that reduced production have no short - term plans to increase output. However, due to Jinling Petrochemical's high - load production after resuming on the 23rd and the possible resumption of Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical, the average asphalt plant operating rate is expected to rise. Demand: Rainy weather still affects most parts of China, with relatively less impact in Shandong and Central China, which supports demand to some extent. But the stability of most road projects outside key projects cannot be guaranteed, and the improvement in asphalt demand is limited [6] Group 5: Industry News Shandong Market - The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3640 - 4070 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan/ton from the previous day. The rising trends of international oil prices and asphalt futures boosted the asphalt price from the cost and market sentiment perspectives, leading some traders to raise their quotes [8] South China Market - The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3560 - 3590 yuan/ton, remaining stable from the previous day. Sinopec's settlement and Gaofu's plan to set new contract prices kept the social inventory quotes stable. Although terminal demand improved slightly, the current asphalt demand is still small, and market sentiment is cautious [8] Group 6: Data Overview - The report presents multiple data charts, including Shandong asphalt spot price, Shandong asphalt basis, asphalt daily operating rate, Shandong asphalt comprehensive profit, asphalt cracking, asphalt social inventory, asphalt manufacturer inventory, and asphalt warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [14][16][17][24]