【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：高开后震荡运行 发布日期：2025年12月30日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回升3.7个百分点至31.3%，较去年同期高了5.4个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌4个百分点至20%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，华南炼厂低价货源支撑下，其出货 量增加较多，全国出货量环比增加11.17%至27.18万吨，处于中性水平。沥青炼厂库存存货比环比小 幅上升，但仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。由于美国财政部宣布对委内瑞拉实施新的制裁措施， 其中包括运输委内瑞拉石油的公司和船只，特朗普下令对进出委内瑞拉的受制裁油轮实施全面封锁。 委内瑞拉主要石油储存设施及码头停泊的油轮正在迅速装满原油，预计在数日后达到最大储存上限。 美国在委内瑞拉附近水域拦截第三艘油轮。市场担忧委内瑞拉重质原油的出口，影响国内沥青的生 产，委内瑞拉稀释沥青贴水幅度再次扩大。本周山东部分炼厂有转产渣油计划，中油高富计 ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela [1] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3% week - on - week, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to be produced at 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, some refineries in Shandong have plans to switch to producing residual oil, and Zhongyou Gaofu plans to stop production, so asphalt supply will decline [1] - Demand side: This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 4 percentage points to 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. The northern road construction is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, but the winter storage demand in the north continues to be released. The overall demand in the south is average [1] - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased slightly week - on - week but remained near the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - Price: This week, the asphalt price in Shandong remained stable, and the basis was at a relatively low - to - neutral level [1][3] 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract fell 0.03% to 2,995 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,987 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,020 yuan/ton. The trading volume decreased by 23,893 to 157,219 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,920 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract remained at - 75 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3] 3. Fundamental Tracking - Supply side: Refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil. The asphalt operating rate increased by 3.7 percentage points to 31.3% week - on - week, 5.4 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - Investment data: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate was the same as that from January to September 2025 but still negative. From January to November 2025, the actual cumulative completed investment in fixed assets of the road transportation industry decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, a slight decline from - 4.3% from January to October 2025. From January to November 2025, the cumulative completed investment in fixed assets of infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year, a further decline from - 0.1% from January to October 2025 [4] - Downstream operating rate: As of the week of December 26, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 4 percentage points to 20% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather [1][4] - Social financing stock: From January to November 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with the same growth rate as from January to October [4] - Inventory: As of the week of December 26, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries increased by 0.4 percentage points to 13.6% compared with the week of December 19, near the lowest level in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt spot price remains stable, and the trend strength is neutral with a value of 0 [1][11] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Information**: The closing price of BU2602 yesterday was 2,996 yuan/ton, up 0.64%, and the night - session closing price was 3,001 yuan/ton, up 0.17%. The closing price of BU2603 yesterday was 3,006 yuan/ton, up 0.54%, and the night - session closing price was 3,006 yuan/ton, unchanged. The trading volume of BU2602 was 187,941 lots, a decrease of 54,265 lots, and the open interest was 190,035 lots, a decrease of 14,707 lots. The trading volume of BU2603 was 63,926 lots, a decrease of 8,291 lots, and the open interest was 148,146 lots, an increase of 2,627 lots. The total asphalt warehouse receipts in the market were 54,100 lots, unchanged [2] - **Spread Information**: The basis (Shandong - 02) was - 76 yuan/ton, a decrease of 19 yuan/ton compared with the previous day; the 02 - 03 inter - period spread was - 10 yuan/ton, an increase of 3 yuan/ton; the Shandong - South China spread was - 40 yuan/ton, unchanged; the East China - South China spread was 130 yuan/ton, unchanged [2] - **Spot Market Information**: The Shandong wholesale price was 2,920 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,077 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,222 yuan/ton. The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,090 yuan/ton, unchanged, and the factory - warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,157 yuan/ton, and the warehouse spot equivalent to the futures price was 3,223 yuan/ton [2] - **Industry Data**: As of December 22, the refinery operating rate was 37.26%, a decrease of 0.62% compared with December 18; the refinery inventory rate was 27.46%, a decrease of 0.04% compared with December 18 [2] 3.2 Market News - **Geopolitical News**: According to Wall Street Journal, the US has dispatched a large number of special - operations aircraft and transport planes to the Caribbean this week, and Trump has increased pressure on Venezuelan President Maduro, ordering the blockade of oil tankers entering and leaving the country [12] - **Industry Data Changes**: From December 18 - 24, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 33.1%, a month - on - month increase of 4.0%, and the capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 31.3%, a month - on - month increase of 3.7%. From December 17 - 23, 2025, the total shipment volume of 54 domestic asphalt enterprises was 40.4 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.4%. From December 17 - 23, 2025, the capacity utilization rate of 69 domestic modified asphalt sample enterprises was 7.1%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.6% and a year - on - year increase of 0.8% [12][13]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is experiencing narrow - range fluctuations, with spot prices in East China accelerating their decline [2] - The trend strength of asphalt is 0, indicating a neutral market outlook [11] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: - BU2602 closed at 2,977 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.60%, and closed at 2,978 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.03%. Its trading volume was 242,206 lots yesterday, a decrease of 124,436 lots, and the open interest was 204,742 lots, a decrease of 12,429 lots [3] - BU2603 closed at 2,990 yuan/ton yesterday, down 0.57%, and closed at 2,991 yuan/ton in the night session, up 0.03%. Its trading volume was 72,217 lots yesterday, a decrease of 51,364 lots, and the open interest was 145,519 lots, an increase of 6,333 lots [3] - The total asphalt market's warehouse receipts were 54,100 lots yesterday, with no change [3] - **Spread Data**: - The basis (Shandong - 02) was - 57 yuan/ton yesterday, up 18 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - The 02 - 03 inter - period spread was - 13 yuan/ton yesterday, down 1 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - The Shandong - South China spread remained at - 40, and the East China - South China spread was 130 yuan/ton yesterday, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day [3] - **Spot Market Data**: - The Shandong wholesale price was 2,920 yuan/ton yesterday, with no change, and the factory - delivered and warehouse - delivered spot prices equivalent to the futures price were 3,076 yuan/ton and 3,222 yuan/ton respectively [3] - The Yangtze River Delta wholesale price was 3,090 yuan/ton yesterday, down 40 yuan/ton, and the factory - delivered and warehouse - delivered spot prices equivalent to the futures price were 3,192 yuan/ton and 3,258 yuan/ton respectively [3] - **Industry Data**: - As of December 22, the refinery operating rate was 37.26%, down 0.62% from December 18 [3] - As of December 22, the refinery inventory rate was 27.46%, down 0.04% from December 18 [3] 3.2 Market Information - A supertanker "Kelly" loaded with oil from Venezuela has returned to Venezuelan waters [14] - From December 16 - 22, 2025, the domestic weekly asphalt production was 549,000 tons, a week - on - week increase of 44,000 tons (8.7%) and a year - on - year increase of 72,000 tons (15.1%). The cumulative production from January - December was 29.845 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.191 million tons (7.9%) [14] - As of December 22, 2025, the inventory of 54 domestic asphalt sample refinery warehouses was 643,000 tons, a 1.3% increase from December 18. Inventory increased significantly in East China and Shandong due to stable production after intermittent resumption of production in some refineries and lower - than - expected demand [14] - As of December 22, 2025, the inventory of 104 domestic asphalt social warehouses was 1.04 million tons, a 1.7% increase from December 18. Inventory in East China increased most significantly due to increased ship cargo warehousing and limited actual shipments despite rigid demand [14]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The supply of asphalt is decreasing, with the operating rate falling and the planned production in December decreasing both month - on - month and year - on - year. The downstream demand is weakening due to factors like weather and funds, and the overall demand is general. Considering the impact of the situation in Venezuela on heavy crude oil exports and the market's cautious attitude, the asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, lower than the same period last year. In December, the domestic asphalt planned production is 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% decrease month - on - month and a 13.8% decrease year - on - year. This week, Hebei Xinhai switched production, reducing low - price supply [1]. - **Demand**: Most downstream operating rates declined last week, with the road asphalt operating rate down 2 percentage points to 27% due to funds and weather. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased 9.69% to 253,400 tons. With the arrival of cold weather in the north, road construction is ending, and the demand will further weaken, while the project increment in the south is limited [1]. - **Inventory**: The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased slightly week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1][5]. - **Crude Oil**: Iraq's oil fields resumed production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, the US imposed new sanctions on Venezuela, causing concerns about heavy crude oil exports and a narrowing discount for Venezuelan diluted asphalt. Crude oil prices are fluctuating weakly [1]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 0.68% to 2,952 yuan/ton, with a trading range between 2,935 and 2,996 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 10,773 to 224,692 lots [2]. - **Basis**: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 42 yuan/ton, at a moderately low level [3]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply - related Indicators**: The asphalt operating rate decreased, and the investment in highway construction, road transportation fixed assets, and infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) all showed negative year - on - year growth [5]. - **Demand - related Indicators**: As of the week of December 12, most downstream operating rates declined, and the road asphalt operating rate dropped to 27%. The social financing stock increased 8.5% year - on - year from January to November, with the growth rate remaining the same as that from January to October [5]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of December 12, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5].

Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core View - The asphalt supply is decreasing, with the production expected to decline in December, and the inventory - to - sales ratio is rising but still near the lowest level in recent years. The demand is weakening as road construction in the north is ending due to cold weather, and the increase in the south is limited. The crude oil price is weakly oscillating, and concerns about Venezuelan heavy crude exports may affect asphalt production. The market is cautious, and it is expected that the asphalt futures price will oscillate [1]. Content Summary by Related Parts Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a multi - year low. In December, the expected domestic asphalt production is 215.8 million tons, a 3.1% month - on - month and 13.8% year - on - year decrease. The national asphalt shipment volume decreased by 9.69% week - on - week to 253,400 tons. The asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased week - on - week and is near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Demand: Last week, most of the downstream asphalt industries' operating rates declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 27% due to capital and weather constraints. With the north's cold weather, road construction is ending, and the overall demand is average [1]. - Crude Oil: Iraqi oil fields are resuming production, and the US is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine. However, sanctions on Venezuela may affect asphalt production, and the discount of Venezuelan diluted asphalt has narrowed [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2602 contract rose 3.58% to 3,012 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,855 yuan/ton, the highest was 3,014 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 1,592 to 235,465 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,910 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract dropped to - 102 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.8%, 0.9 percentage points lower than last year's same period, at a multi - year low [4]. - Demand - related Investment: From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year. From January to November, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 4.7% year - on - year, and infrastructure construction investment (excluding electricity) decreased by 1.1% year - on - year [4]. - Downstream Operating Rate: As of the week of December 12, most of the downstream asphalt industries' operating rates declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 2 percentage points to 27% due to capital and weather constraints [4]. - Social Financing: From January to November, the social financing stock increased by 8.5% year - on - year, with the growth rate remaining the same as that from January to October [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 12, the asphalt refinery inventory - to - sales ratio increased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate. The supply is affected by factors such as the resumption of production in some refineries and the potential impact on Venezuelan heavy - crude exports, while demand will further weaken as road construction in the north winds down due to the drop in temperature and the increase in southern projects is limited. The current market is cautious about winter - storage contracts [1]. Summary by Related Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week - on - week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the expected domestic asphalt production is 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons (3.1%) month - on - month and 344,000 tons (13.8%) year - on - year. This week, Qilu Petrochemical will switch to asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate will rise slightly [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed results. The road - asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29%, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased 7.06% to 280,600 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level. With the drop in northern temperatures, road construction is gradually ending, future demand will further weaken, and the increase in southern projects is limited, so overall demand is average [1]. - Inventory: The inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased week - on - week and is still near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Crude Oil: Some previously malfunctioning oil fields in Iraq have resumed production, and the crack spreads of refined oil products in Europe and the United States have continued to decline, causing crude - oil prices to fluctuate weakly. The market is worried that the US seizure of a large tanker off the Venezuelan coast will affect the export of Venezuelan heavy crude and domestic asphalt production [1]. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures contract 2602 rose 0.92% to 2,960 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 2,943 yuan/ton, and the highest was 2,997 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,329 to 208,301 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained at 2,930 yuan/ton. The basis of the asphalt 02 contract fell to - 30 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Shandong Shengxing have resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt operating rate increased 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% week - on - week, 1.0 percentage point lower than the same period last year, remaining at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - Investment: From January to October, the investment in national highway construction decreased 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road - transport industry from January to October decreased slightly to - 4.3% from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October dropped to - 0.1% from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - Social Financing: From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social - financing stock was 8.5%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - Inventory: As of the week of December 5, the inventory - to - stock ratio of asphalt refineries decreased 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28 and is near the lowest level in recent years [4].

Report Information - Report title: Asphalt Daily Report [1] - Report date: December 11, 2025 [2] 1. Report's Core View - The oil price lacks support, and the asphalt market has weak supply and demand. The short - term market is cautious, and it is advisable to wait and see [6] 2. Summary by Directory 2.1 Market Review and Operation Suggestions - **Futures Market**: For BU2602, the opening price was 252 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2940 yuan/ton, the highest was 2953 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2916 yuan/ton, the decline rate was 0.24%, and the trading volume was 141,200 lots. For BU2603, the opening price was 2971 yuan/ton, the closing price was 2958 yuan/ton, the highest was 2971 yuan/ton, the lowest was 2936 yuan/ton, the decline rate was 0.20%, and the trading volume was 36,100 lots [6] - **Spot Market**: The asphalt spot price in North China continued to rise, and prices in other regions were generally stable. Tight spot resources in some areas pushed up prices. Yangzi Petrochemical had no plan to continue asphalt production after a brief restart. Zhenhai Refining, Dongming Petrochemical, and Shengxing Petrochemical planned to resume production. The asphalt plant operating rate was expected to rebound slightly. Cold air affected most parts of China, with road demand in Northeast and Northwest China stagnant, but there was still construction rush demand in Shandong. Demand was expected to be stable [6] 2.2 Industry News - **Shandong Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 2860 - 3370 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Weak crude oil and asphalt futures trends were negative for market sentiment. However, due to better coking profits, some refineries switched to producing residue, reducing regional supply and providing bottom - support [7] - **East China Market**: The mainstream transaction price of 70 A - grade asphalt was 3100 - 3250 yuan/ton, remaining stable. Crude oil and asphalt futures were weak again. Although the mainstream refinery truck - shipping transactions were stable, some social warehouse quotes in East China were below 3000 yuan/ton, which was negative. Most northern refineries had not announced winter - storage policies, so traders' enthusiasm for warehousing was low, and the market faced downward pressure [7] 2.3 Data Overview - The report presented data on asphalt spot prices, basis, daily operating rate, comprehensive profit, cracking spread, social inventory, manufacturer inventory, and warehouse receipts, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of CCB Futures [10][12][14]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the report industry investment rating. 2. Report Core View The report focuses on the asphalt market, indicating that due to geopolitical uncertainties, there will be a small - scale and phased rebound. Key statistics show production, inventory changes, and price trends in the asphalt market [1][11]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs **Fundamental Tracking** - **Futures Data**: BU2602 closed at 2,940 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.10% change, and 2,946 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.20% change. BU2603 closed at 2,958 yuan/ton yesterday with a - 0.17% change, and 2,960 yuan/ton in the night session with a 0.07% change. Trading volume and open interest had different changes [1]. - **Spot Market Data**: The wholesale price in Shandong was 2,930 yuan/ton with no change, and in the Yangtze River Delta was 3,150 yuan/ton with no change. The refinery operating rate was 33.12% (down 1.28% from the previous period), and the refinery inventory rate was 27.21% (up 0.21% from the previous period) [1]. - **Price Difference Data**: The basis (Shandong - 02) was - 10 yuan/ton with a 3 - yuan change; the 02 - 03 inter - period spread was - 18 yuan/ton with a 2 - yuan change; the Shandong - South China spread was - 80 yuan/ton with no change; the East China - South China spread was 140 yuan/ton with no change [1]. **Market Information** - **Production**: From December 2 - 8, 2025, the weekly asphalt production was 51.4 tons, a 1.8% increase from the previous week and a 1.2% decrease year - on - year. The cumulative production from January to December was 2,953.1 tons, a 7.9% increase year - on - year [11]. - **Inventory**: As of December 8, 2025, the inventory of 54 asphalt sample refineries was 63.4 tons, a 1.3% increase from December 4. The inventory of 104 social warehouses was 103.6 tons, a 1.8% decrease from December 4 [11]. **Trend Intensity** The asphalt trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook, with the value ranging from - 2 (most bearish) to 2 (most bullish) [8].

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoint The supply of asphalt has increased slightly, with the production scheduled to decrease in December. The downstream demand is generally weak, and the inventory is at a relatively low level. The price of crude oil is weakly fluctuating, and the price of asphalt in Shandong has been falling recently. The market is cautious about the winter storage contract. It is expected that the futures price of asphalt will fluctuate weakly [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% month - on - month, 1.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years. In December, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2.158 million tons, a decrease of 70,000 tons month - on - month (3.1%) and 344,000 tons year - on - year (13.8%) [1]. - Last week, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends. The road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29% month - on - month, restricted by funds and weather. The national shipment volume increased by 7.06% to 280,600 tons week - on - week, at a neutral level [1]. - The inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased month - on - month and is still near the lowest level in recent years. The price of crude oil fluctuated weakly. The distillation unit in Venezuela's Jose Industrial Zone was shut down, but the discount of diluted asphalt widened. Qilu Petrochemical plans to switch to asphalt production this week, and the asphalt operating rate will increase slightly. The demand will weaken further, and it is expected that the futures price of asphalt will fluctuate weakly [1]. Futures and Spot Market - Today, the asphalt futures contract 2602 fell 0.41% to 2,943 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 2,928 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 2,963 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 6,677 to 201,816 lots [2]. - The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 2,930 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 02 contract rose to - 13 yuan/ton, at a neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - In terms of supply, refineries such as Shandong Shengxing resumed asphalt production. The asphalt operating rate increased by 0.1 percentage points to 27.9% month - on - month, 1.0 percentage points lower than the same period last year, still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4]. - From January to October, the national highway construction investment decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, with the same cumulative year - on - year growth rate as that from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry from January to October was - 4.3%, a slight decline from - 2.7% from January to September. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to October was - 0.1%, a further decline from 1.1% from January to September [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the operating rates of downstream asphalt industries showed mixed trends, and the road asphalt operating rate remained flat at 29% month - on - month, restricted by funds and weather. From January to October, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.5%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decline from that from January to September. The new social financing in October was lower than market expectations [4]. - As of the week of December 5, the inventory - to - sales ratio of asphalt refineries decreased by 1.3 percentage points to 13.2% compared with the week of November 28 and is near the lowest level in recent years [4].