1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the precious metals market has cooled down due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and tariff expectations. The copper market is expected to experience short - term shock adjustments due to tight copper ore supply, relatively strong LME spot, and relatively surplus refined copper supply. The aluminum market has support in the short - term due to high US aluminum spot premiums, low LME aluminum inventories, and expected improvement in demand. The casting aluminum alloy is expected to be in shock consolidation due to strong cost support and general demand. The lead and zinc markets will follow the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector to give back some gains, but the non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term. The tin market may fluctuate due to marginal improvement in supply and demand and short - term inventory accumulation. The nickel market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The lithium carbonate market has a rebound, but there are risks of correction. The alumina market is recommended to wait and see due to over - capacity and cost support decline. The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [3][6][9][11][14][17][19][23][26][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper followed the precious metals to rise and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 0.27% to $12,761/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,420 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 3,100 tons to 159,400 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 tons to 146,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to the futures, and the import of refined copper was at a loss. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed slightly [2]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term copper price is expected to be in shock adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - 13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum also followed the precious metals to rise and then fall. LME aluminum closed slightly down 0.03% to $3,117/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,100 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 15,000 hands to 714,000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 tons to 139,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 508,000 tons [5]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term aluminum price still has support. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,900 - 24,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - 3,150/ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy fluctuated. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.57% to 22,895 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 23,000 hands, and the trading volume was 12,100 hands. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.02 tons to 68,900 tons. The spread between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts widened. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price was flat, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 0.03 tons to 42,800 tons [9]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term price is expected to be in shock consolidation [9]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.63% to 17,121 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $19 to $2,039/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,875 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 225,600 tons. The national main market lead ingot social inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic View**: The lead price gave back some gains with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector. The non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.25% to 24,355 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $33 to $3,194/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,210 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 31,000 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 112,300 tons. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 112,100 tons [13]. - **Strategic View**: The zinc price gave back some gains with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector. The non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term, and the zinc price has a large room for a supplementary rise compared with copper and aluminum. The subsequent trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [14]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 21, the tin price continued to rebound, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 418,420 yuan/ton, up 4.2%. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally high and stable, but the supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term. The demand was suppressed by the sharp rise in prices, and the inventory increased [15][16]. - **Strategic View**: The tin price may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 380,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 53,000/ton [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 21, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 143,060 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. The spot premiums of different brands varied. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price rose significantly [18]. - **Strategic View**: The Shanghai nickel is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.91%. The LC2605 contract closed at 166,740 yuan, up 3.89% [21]. - **Strategic View**: The rebound of lithium carbonate continues, but there are risks of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 158,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 21, the alumina index rose 0.04% to 2,667 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased by 16,300 hands. The domestic spot was at a discount to the main contract, and the overseas FOB price decreased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 tons to 119,100 tons [25]. - **Strategic View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,600 - 2,750 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, up 2.61%. The position increased by 27,595 hands. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets rose, and the raw material prices were stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 2.13% [28][29]. - **Strategic View**: The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, and the price may be in a high - level shock pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,230 yuan/ton [29].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME copper futures prices are showing a strong performance, with a current price of $12,846.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.39% increase from the opening price [1] - On January 20, LME copper futures opened at $12,933.0, reached a high of $12,988.0, and closed at $12,796.5, marking a decrease of 1.47% [2] - The registered copper warehouse receipts at LME on January 20 were 108,500 tons, with canceled receipts decreasing by 750 tons to 47,800 tons, while total copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons [2] Group 2 - On January 20, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported copper warehouse receipts of 148,193 tons, which is a decrease of 4,462 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.8, indicating an import loss of 1,447.22 yuan per ton, compared to a loss of 1,345.92 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the news is that LME copper futures prices are experiencing a strong fluctuation, with a current price of $12,921.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.88% increase from the opening price [1] - On January 16, LME copper futures opened at $13,096.5 per ton, reached a high of $13,183.0, and closed at $12,808.5, marking a decrease of 2.59% [2] - As of January 16, LME registered copper warrants totaled 94,000 tons, while canceled warrants decreased by 525 tons, resulting in a total copper inventory of 143,575 tons, which increased by 2,450 tons [2] Group 2 - The electrolytic copper spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was reported at 7.82, indicating an import loss of ¥1,218.18 per ton, which improved from a loss of ¥1,465.85 per ton on the previous trading day [2] - On January 16, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported a copper futures warrant of 160,417 tons, which decreased by 2,300 tons compared to the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The recent slight rebound in zinc prices is attributed to the interplay between U.S. inflation data and market sentiment, while poor domestic physical trading further constrains the market, indicating that short-term zinc prices will primarily experience high-level fluctuations and adjustments [3]. Group 1: Market Performance - The Shanghai zinc futures market showed volatility today, with the main contract (2602) opening at 22,985 CNY/ton, reaching a high of 23,090 CNY/ton, and closing at 23,075 CNY/ton, up 40 CNY, or 0.17% [1]. - The trading volume for the Shanghai zinc 2602 contract was 88,361 lots, an increase of 2,041 lots, while the open interest rose by 2,640 lots to 86,365 [1]. - The latest price for London zinc was reported at 3,072.5 USD, an increase of 14.5 USD [1]. Group 2: Price Statistics - The ccmn comprehensive zinc price for 0 zinc was reported between 23,110-23,210 CNY/ton, with an average of 23,160 CNY, up 40 CNY; 1 zinc was between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton, averaging 23,080 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - In Guangdong, the 0 zinc price ranged from 22,770-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,920 CNY, also up 50 CNY, while 1 zinc was between 22,700-23,070 CNY/ton, averaging 22,850 CNY, up 50 CNY [1]. - The current spot zinc market quotes 0 zinc between 23,100-23,210 CNY/ton and 1 zinc between 23,030-23,130 CNY/ton [1]. Group 3: Macro and Fundamental Analysis - The U.S. Labor Department reported that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for November increased by 2.7% year-on-year, lower than market expectations and down from 3.0% in September, indicating a potential underestimation of actual inflation levels [2]. - Domestic smelters are experiencing increased maintenance, while downstream consumption shows resilience, leading to a continuous decline in social inventory [2]. - The import volume of zinc ore has decreased due to unfavorable price differentials, resulting in expanded losses for Chinese imports of zinc concentrate [2]. - Domestic smelters are beginning winter raw material reserves, favoring domestic zinc concentrate procurement, but competition among smelters is intensifying, leading to a significant drop in processing fees and reduced profits [2]. - The demand side is weakening, particularly in the real estate sector, with only the automotive sector showing some support due to policy backing [2].

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are showing a strong performance, opening at $2802.5 per ton and currently at $2806.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.74% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2810 per ton, while the lowest was $2800.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 21, LME aluminum futures opened at $2803.0, peaked at $2812.0, and closed at $2808.0, reflecting a slight increase of 0.05% [2] - As of November 21, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 69,283 tons, a decrease of 125 tons from the previous trading day [2] - LME registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 490,725 tons, with canceled receipts at 57,275 tons, a reduction of 2,000 tons, while total aluminum inventory increased by 3,925 tons to 548,000 tons [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.63, with an import loss of -1,797.86 yuan per ton, compared to -1,760.26 yuan per ton the previous trading day [2]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices continue to fluctuate at high levels, opening at $2880.5 per ton and currently at $2883.5 per ton, with a decline of 0.45% [1] - On November 13, LME aluminum futures opened at $2883.0, reached a high of $2911.5, a low of $2873.0, and closed at $2877.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.31% [2] - As of November 13, the registered aluminum warehouse receipts at LME totaled 521,525 tons, with canceled receipts at 31,675 tons, a decrease of 2,000 tons, while total aluminum inventory increased by 9,125 tons to 553,200 tons [2] Group 2 - On November 13, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts of 64,742 tons, an increase of 924 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The electrolytic aluminum spot price ratio between Shanghai and London was 7.56, with an import loss of -2,002.18 yuan per ton, improving from -2,149.66 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not mention the industry investment rating [1][2][3] Core Viewpoint of the Report The zinc price is expected to fluctuate strongly due to factors such as inventory decline and the opening of export windows. It is recommended to adopt a long - position trading strategy [2][5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Review**: The main contract of Shanghai zinc continued to rise this week, with a weekly increase of 1.63% and an amplitude of 1.97%. The closing price of the main contract was 22,720 yuan/ton [5] - **Market Outlook**: Macroeconomically, the US private data shows a negative non - farm payroll in October, and the Fed's December interest - rate cut direction is unclear. Fundamentally, zinc ore imports have increased, but domestic zinc ore processing fees have decreased, and smelter profits have shrunk. Overseas zinc supply is tight, and the export window has opened. Demand - side traditional peak - season effects are weak, and downstream demand recovery is insufficient. Technically, the increase in positions and price indicates a strong long - position atmosphere [5] - **Strategy Recommendation**: Adopt a long - position trading strategy [5] 2. Futures and Spot Markets - **Price and Ratio**: The Shanghai zinc futures price rose, and the Shanghai - London ratio decreased. As of November 7, 2025, the Shanghai zinc closing price was 22,720 yuan/ton, up 365 yuan/ton or 1.63% from October 31. As of November 6, 2025, the London zinc closing price was 3,051 US dollars/ton, up 6.5 US dollars/ton or 0.21% from October 31 [8] - **Net Positions and Open Interest**: The top 20 net positions in Shanghai zinc increased. As of November 7, 2025, the top 20 net positions were 16,709 lots, an increase of 6,792 lots from October 31. The open interest was 226,883 lots, an increase of 15,774 lots or 7.47% from October 31 [11] - **Price Spreads**: The zinc - aluminum price spread remained stable, and the zinc - lead price spread rebounded. As of November 7, 2025, the aluminum - zinc futures price spread was 1,095 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton from October 31. The lead - zinc futures price spread was 5,300 yuan/ton, an increase of 335 yuan/ton from October 31 [16] - **Spot Premiums**: The domestic spot premium rebounded, and the LME zinc premium was at a high level. As of November 7, 2025, the 0 zinc ingot spot price was 22,650 yuan/ton, up 330 yuan/ton or 1.48% from October 31. The spot discount was 35 yuan/ton, an increase of 20 yuan/ton from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the LME zinc near - month and 3 - month spread was 104.75 US dollars/ton, an increase of 8.73 US dollars/ton from October 30 [22] - **Inventory**: Both domestic and LME zinc inventories decreased. As of November 6, 2025, the LME refined zinc inventory was 34,100 tons, a decrease of 800 tons or 2.29% from October 30. As of November 7, 2025, the SHFE refined zinc inventory was 100,208 tons, a decrease of 3,208 tons or 3.1% from last week. As of November 6, 2025, the domestic refined zinc social inventory was 161,800 tons, a decrease of 1,600 tons or 0.98% from October 30 [25] 3. Industry Situation - **Upstream**: Zinc ore production and imports increased. In August 2025, global zinc ore production was 1.0976 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.24% and a year - on - year increase of 13.14%. In September 2025, the import of zinc ore concentrates was 505,394.80 tons, a month - on - month increase of 8.61% and a year - on - year increase of 25.18% [31] - **Supply Side**: - **Global Supply Shortage**: According to WBMS, the global refined zinc supply was in shortage. In August 2025, global refined zinc production was 1.2269 million tons, an increase of 94,600 tons or 8.35% year - on - year. Consumption was 1.179 million tons, an increase of 1,400 tons or 0.12% year - on - year. There was a surplus of 47,900 tons, compared with a deficit of 45,300 tons in the same period last year [36] - **High Production**: In September 2025, China's zinc production was 625,000 tons, a year - on - year increase of 16.2%. From January to September, the cumulative output was 5.459 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 6.5% [40] - **Export Window Open**: In September 2025, the refined zinc import volume was 22,677.51 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 57.05%. The export volume was 2,477.83 tons, a year - on - year increase of 158.25% [43] - **Downstream**: - **Galvanized Sheets**: From January to September 2025, the inventory of galvanized sheets (strips) of major domestic enterprises was 919,400 tons, a year - on - year increase of 19.45%. In September 2025, the import volume of galvanized sheets (strips) was 37,800 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 33.69%. The export volume was 361,500 tons, a year - on - year increase of 18.29% [46][47] - **Real Estate**: From January to September 2025, the new housing construction area was 453.9932 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 19%. The housing completion area was 311.2888 million square meters, a year - on - year decrease of 14.96%. The funds in place for real estate development enterprises were 7.229864 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 8.4%. Personal mortgage loans were 988.438 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 10.6% [52][53] - **Infrastructure**: In September 2025, the real estate development climate index was 92.78, a decrease of 0.27 from the previous month and an increase of 0.47 from the same period last year. From January to September 2025, infrastructure investment increased by 3.34% year - on - year [58] - **Home Appliances**: In September 2025, refrigerator production was 10.1276 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 2%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 80.3523 million units, a year - on - year increase of 1.5%. In September 2025, air - conditioner production was 18.0948 million units, a year - on - year decrease of 3%. From January to September, the cumulative production was 216.5707 million units, a year - on - year increase of 4.4% [60] - **Automobiles**: In September 2025, China's automobile sales volume was 3,226,375 units, a year - on - year increase of 14.86%. The production volume was 3,275,802 units, a year - on - year increase of 17.15% [64]

Group 1 - LME aluminum futures prices are experiencing fluctuations within a high range, opening at $2844.5 per ton and currently at $2847.5 per ton, with an increase of 0.11% [1] - The highest price during the trading session reached $2857 per ton, while the lowest dipped to $2842.5 per ton [1] Group 2 - On November 6, LME aluminum futures opened at $2846.0, peaked at $2882.5, and closed at $2843.0, reflecting a decrease of 0.09% [2] - As of November 6, registered aluminum warehouse receipts totaled 506,950 tons, with canceled receipts at 41,425 tons, a reduction of 2,075 tons [2] - Total aluminum inventory stood at 548,375 tons, also down by 2,075 tons [2] - The Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warehouse receipts at 55,506 tons, a decrease of 31 tons compared to the previous trading day [2] - The current ratio of electrolytic aluminum spot prices between Shanghai and London is 7.51, with an import loss of -2,348.94 yuan per ton, compared to -2,447.6 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [2]

Core Viewpoint - The LME aluminum futures prices are showing a strong upward trend, with current trading prices around $2812.5 per ton, reflecting a 0.25% increase from the opening price [1] LME Aluminum Futures Market Review - On October 22, LME aluminum futures opened at $2780.0, reached a high of $2822.0, and closed at $2805.5, marking an increase of 0.88% [1] - The trading range for LME aluminum on October 22 was between $2775.0 and $2822.0 [1] Aluminum Market News - As of October 22, LME registered aluminum warrants totaled 405,650 tons, with canceled warrants decreasing by 1,600 tons to 76,875 tons [1] - The total aluminum inventory at LME was reported at 482,525 tons, also reflecting a decrease of 1,600 tons [1] - The ratio of electrolytic aluminum spot prices between Shanghai and London was recorded at 7.52, with the import loss calculated at -2,368.22 yuan per ton, compared to -2,263.34 yuan per ton on the previous trading day [1] - On the same day, the Shanghai Futures Exchange reported aluminum warrants at 67,270 tons, a decrease of 2,127 tons from the previous trading day [1]

Core Viewpoint - The zinc market is facing downward price pressure across the entire supply chain, from mining to smelting, leading to compressed profit margins. This unusual "internal weakness and external strength" market structure is reshaping global zinc trade flows and presenting unprecedented challenges to the domestic zinc industry [1][3]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic zinc ingot social inventory has surged to 163,100 tons, significantly up from around 100,000 tons earlier this year, indicating a clear supply-demand imbalance with increased supply and weak consumption [2]. - Since August, a rare divergence in domestic and international zinc markets has emerged, characterized by a strong rise in LME zinc prices from approximately $2,700/ton to a peak of $3,004/ton, while domestic zinc prices have fluctuated between 22,000 and 22,500 yuan/ton, showing weakness [2][6]. - The extreme price disparity has caused the Shanghai-LME ratio to drop to 7.4, resulting in import losses exceeding 5,000 yuan/ton, the highest level since 2022 [2][7]. Processing Fees and Market Behavior - There is a notable divergence in processing fees, with imported zinc concentrate processing fees rising while domestic processing fees are declining. As of September 20, domestic processing fees fell to around 3,850 yuan/ton, while imported processing fees rebounded to over $110/ton [8][9]. - The decline in domestic processing fees is attributed to the worsening Shanghai-LME ratio, leading domestic smelters to prefer purchasing domestic ore, tightening its supply and allowing suppliers to increase prices [10]. Production and Consumption Trends - Domestic zinc mine production in August was 370,000 tons, stable month-on-month but up 3% year-on-year, with expectations of slight improvement in September as production normalizes post-summer [12]. - Domestic refined zinc production reached a record high of 620,000 tons in August, with a year-on-year growth rate of 28%, indicating a recovery from previous lows [14][15]. - Zinc consumption remains weak, with actual consumption in August at 590,000 tons, down 2% month-on-month and 5% year-on-year, reflecting a seasonal downturn [18]. Economic Indicators and Market Outlook - Macro-economic data supports the view of weak zinc consumption, with significant declines in infrastructure and real estate investments, which are closely linked to zinc demand [19]. - Domestic zinc ingot inventory has increased significantly, reaching 160,000 tons by September 20, with projections suggesting it could rise to around 250,000 tons by year-end [20]. - In contrast, LME zinc ingot inventory continues to decline, recently dropping below 50,000 tons, which may prevent significant price drops in the near term [21]. Future Market Predictions - The overall zinc market fundamentals appear weak due to increased supply and weak consumption, yet the market has not shown a significant downward trend due to macroeconomic support and the ongoing decline in LME inventories [23][24]. - Short-term predictions indicate that while global economic conditions may support metal prices, domestic supply remains ample, limiting the potential for significant price increases in the domestic market [25].