1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The sentiment in the precious metals market has cooled down due to the easing of geopolitical tensions and tariff expectations. The copper market is expected to experience short - term shock adjustments due to tight copper ore supply, relatively strong LME spot, and relatively surplus refined copper supply. The aluminum market has support in the short - term due to high US aluminum spot premiums, low LME aluminum inventories, and expected improvement in demand. The casting aluminum alloy is expected to be in shock consolidation due to strong cost support and general demand. The lead and zinc markets will follow the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector to give back some gains, but the non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term. The tin market may fluctuate due to marginal improvement in supply and demand and short - term inventory accumulation. The nickel market is expected to have a wide - range shock. The lithium carbonate market has a rebound, but there are risks of correction. The alumina market is recommended to wait and see due to over - capacity and cost support decline. The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term [3][6][9][11][14][17][19][23][26][29]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper followed the precious metals to rise and then fall. LME copper 3M closed down 0.27% to $12,761/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,420 yuan/ton. LME copper inventories increased by 3,100 tons to 159,400 tons, and the domestic SHFE daily warehouse receipts decreased by 0.3 tons to 146,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai and Guangdong was at a discount to the futures, and the import of refined copper was at a loss. The spread between refined and scrap copper narrowed slightly [2]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term copper price is expected to be in shock adjustment. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 99,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,600 - 13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum also followed the precious metals to rise and then fall. LME aluminum closed slightly down 0.03% to $3,117/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 24,100 yuan/ton. The position of the Shanghai aluminum weighted contract increased by 15,000 hands to 714,000 hands, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 tons to 139,000 tons. Domestic aluminum ingot inventories decreased, and the LME aluminum ingot inventory increased by 24,000 tons to 508,000 tons [5]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term aluminum price still has support. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,900 - 24,300 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,080 - 3,150/ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the casting aluminum alloy fluctuated. The main AD2603 contract closed up 0.57% to 22,895 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position decreased to 23,000 hands, and the trading volume was 12,100 hands. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.02 tons to 68,900 tons. The spread between the AL2603 and AD2603 contracts widened. The domestic mainstream ADC12 average price was flat, and the inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three places decreased by 0.03 tons to 42,800 tons [9]. - **Strategic View**: The short - term price is expected to be in shock consolidation [9]. Lead - **Market Information**: The Shanghai lead index closed down 0.63% to 17,121 yuan/ton, and LME lead 3S fell by $19 to $2,039/ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 16,875 yuan/ton, and the refined - scrap spread was 100 yuan/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 27,600 tons, and the LME lead ingot inventory was 225,600 tons. The national main market lead ingot social inventory increased by 0.2 tons to 29,400 tons [10]. - **Strategic View**: The lead price gave back some gains with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector. The non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.25% to 24,355 yuan/ton, and LME zinc 3S fell by $33 to $3,194/ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,210 yuan/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 31,000 tons, and the LME zinc ingot inventory was 112,300 tons. The national main market zinc ingot social inventory increased by 0.57 tons to 112,100 tons [13]. - **Strategic View**: The zinc price gave back some gains with the ebb of the non - ferrous metal sector. The non - ferrous metal sector is still considered bullish in the medium - term, and the zinc price has a large room for a supplementary rise compared with copper and aluminum. The subsequent trends of leading varieties and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [14]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 21, the tin price continued to rebound, and the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 418,420 yuan/ton, up 4.2%. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally high and stable, but the supply was difficult to increase significantly in the short - term. The demand was suppressed by the sharp rise in prices, and the inventory increased [15][16]. - **Strategic View**: The tin price may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 380,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $47,000 - 53,000/ton [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 21, the nickel price fluctuated narrowly, and the Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 143,060 yuan/ton, up 1.2%. The spot premiums of different brands varied. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price rose significantly [18]. - **Strategic View**: The Shanghai nickel is expected to have a wide - range shock in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - 19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate rose 4.91%. The LC2605 contract closed at 166,740 yuan, up 3.89% [21]. - **Strategic View**: The rebound of lithium carbonate continues, but there are risks of correction. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 158,000 - 174,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 21, the alumina index rose 0.04% to 2,667 yuan/ton. The trading position decreased by 16,300 hands. The domestic spot was at a discount to the main contract, and the overseas FOB price decreased. The futures warehouse receipts increased by 0.3 tons to 119,100 tons [25]. - **Strategic View**: It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,600 - 2,750 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to supply - side policies, Guinea's ore policies, and the Fed's monetary policy [26]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Wednesday, the stainless steel main contract closed at 14,720 yuan/ton, up 2.61%. The position increased by 27,595 hands. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets rose, and the raw material prices were stable or increased. The futures inventory decreased, and the social inventory decreased by 2.13% [28][29]. - **Strategic View**: The stainless steel market is expected to maintain a strong trend in the short - term, and the price may be in a high - level shock pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 14,200 - 15,230 yuan/ton [29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views of the Report - For the stock index, in the long - term, policies support the capital market, and the strategy is to buy on dips [4]. - For treasury bonds, in the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is still room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate [6]. - For precious metals, in the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction [8]. - For non - ferrous metals, in the double - wide cycle, the bullish sentiment of commodities continues, with the main focus on precious metals and non - ferrous metals, and other sectors are affected by the spill - over of market sentiment [41]. - For black building materials, the prices of black series continue to oscillate in the bottom range, and attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. - For energy and chemicals, different varieties have different trends, such as rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and some varieties have opportunities for long - term investment [51]. - For agricultural products, different products have different outlooks, such as short - term support for the near - month contracts of live pigs and eggs, but medium - term pressure on some products [78][80]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Stock Index - **Market Information**: Policies include solving abnormal low - price problems in government procurement, supporting the real estate market, and promoting cross - border payment systems [2]. - **Basis Ratio**: The basis ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: Adopt a long - on - dips strategy in the long - term, and pay attention to the market rhythm in the short - term [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: The prices of TL, T, TF, and TS contracts changed on Wednesday. Policies focus on urban renewal and real estate system construction. The central bank conducted reverse repurchase operations with a net investment of 1227 billion yuan [5]. - **Strategy**: In the context of weak domestic demand recovery, there is room for reserve requirement ratio and interest rate cuts, and the bond market is expected to fluctuate, mainly affected by the stock - bond seesaw [6]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: The prices of gold and silver in domestic and foreign markets changed. The conflict over Greenland was alleviated, and the inventory of COMEX silver decreased [7]. - **Strategy**: In the medium - term, there is a buying opportunity after the price correction, with reference price ranges for Shanghai gold and silver contracts [8]. Non - Ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: The price of copper followed the trend of gold and fell. LME copper inventory increased, and the domestic spot was at a discount [10]. - **Strategy**: The copper price is expected to oscillate and adjust in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai copper and LME copper [11]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The price of aluminum fell slightly. The inventory of LME aluminum increased, and the domestic downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - **Strategy**: The decline of aluminum price is limited, and it is still supported in the short - term, with reference price ranges for Shanghai aluminum and LME aluminum [13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The price of zinc fell. The inventory of zinc ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some zinc brands [14]. - **Strategy**: Zinc has room for price increase compared with copper and aluminum, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Lead - **Market Information**: The price of lead fell. The inventory of lead ingots increased, and the LME announced restrictions on some lead brands [16]. - **Strategy**: The lead price may oscillate and adjust, and follow - up attention should be paid to the leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [17]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The price of nickel fluctuated slightly. The prices of nickel ore and nickel iron changed [18]. - **Strategy**: The Shanghai nickel is expected to oscillate widely in the short - term, and it is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel [19]. Tin - **Market Information**: The price of tin rebounded. The smelting start - up rates in Yunnan and Jiangxi were stable, and the inventory increased [20][21]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, and the price is expected to oscillate. It is recommended to wait and see, with reference price ranges for domestic and overseas tin contracts [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The price of carbonate lithium rebounded. The spot index and futures contract price increased [23]. - **Strategy**: The supply contraction expectation has not been falsified, but there is a callback risk. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position, with a reference price range for the futures contract [23]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The price of alumina increased slightly. The inventory increased, and the overseas price decreased [24]. - **Strategy**: The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity of alumina smelting is difficult to change in the short - term. It is recommended to wait and see, with a reference price range for the domestic contract [25]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The price of stainless steel increased. The inventory decreased, and the raw material prices changed [26]. - **Strategy**: In the short - term, the market is expected to be strong, and the price may oscillate at a high level, with a reference price range for the main contract [26]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of casting aluminum alloy oscillated. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume increased [27]. - **Strategy**: The price is expected to oscillate and consolidate, with strong cost support and general demand [28]. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coils changed. The inventory and production of hot - rolled coils and rebar changed [30]. - **Strategy**: The prices of steel products continue to oscillate in the bottom range. Attention should be paid to the inventory reduction progress of hot - rolled coils and relevant policies [30]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The price of iron ore fell. The inventory increased, and the supply and demand changed [31]. - **Strategy**: The supply pressure eases marginally, and the price is supported in the short - term. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's restocking and iron - water production rhythm [32]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: The prices of coking coal and coke changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [33][34]. - **Strategy**: The prices of coking coal and coke are expected to oscillate strongly, and attention should be paid to market sentiment fluctuations [36]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: The price of glass fell. The inventory decreased, and the trading volume changed [37]. - **Strategy**: The glass market is in a loose balance, and the price is expected to oscillate widely, with a reference price range for the main contract [38]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: The price of soda ash fell. The inventory increased slightly, and the trading volume changed [39]. - **Strategy**: The soda ash market is in a weak - oscillating pattern, and the price is expected to continue to be weak, with a reference price range for the main contract [39]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: The prices of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon changed. The technical forms and supply - demand structures are analyzed [40]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of manganese silicon is not ideal, and that of ferrosilicon is basically balanced. Attention should be paid to market sentiment and relevant factors, and there are opportunities for long - term investment [43]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The price of industrial silicon increased slightly. The supply and demand changed [44]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon is expected to oscillate due to news disturbances, and attention should be paid to the implementation of production cuts by large factories [45]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The price of polysilicon fell. The supply pressure is expected to ease [46]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short - term. Attention should be paid to spot transactions and exchange risk - control measures [47]. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The price of rubber oscillated and rebounded. The supply and demand, inventory, and spot prices changed [49][50]. - **Strategy**: Rubber is expected to decline after consolidation, and a short - on - rebound strategy is recommended [51]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The price of crude oil increased. The inventory of refined oil products in ports changed [52]. - **Strategy**: Take profit on heavy - oil spreads and go long on crude oil at the shale - oil break - even cost range [53]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of methanol changed [54]. - **Strategy**: The valuation is low, and there is room for long - term investment due to geopolitical expectations [55]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot and futures prices of urea changed [56]. - **Strategy**: The import window is open, and it is recommended to take profit on rallies [57]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [60]. - **Strategy**: There is room for upward valuation repair of styrene non - integrated profit, and it is recommended to go long on non - integrated profit before the first quarter [61]. PVC - **Market Information**: The price of PVC fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [62]. - **Strategy**: The domestic supply is strong and demand is weak. In the short - term, there is support from electricity prices and export rush, and in the medium - term, a short - on - rallies strategy is recommended [63]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The price of ethylene glycol increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [64][65]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand pattern needs to be improved by increasing production cuts. There is a risk of rebound in the short - term, and valuation compression is expected in the medium - term [66]. PTA - **Market Information**: The price of PTA increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [67]. - **Strategy**: PTA is expected to enter the Spring Festival inventory - accumulation period. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival, and attention should be paid to long - term investment opportunities [68]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The price of p - xylene fell. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [69]. - **Strategy**: PX is expected to maintain an inventory - accumulation pattern before the maintenance season. There are long - term investment opportunities following crude oil after the Spring Festival [71]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The price of PE increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The price of crude oil may have bottomed out. The supply pressure is reduced, and the price is supported by inventory reduction [73]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The price of PP increased. The supply, demand, and inventory changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. There is no prominent short - term contradiction. There are opportunities for long - term investment in the PP5 - 9 spread [75]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The price of live pigs mainly declined. The consumption and supply situation is analyzed [77]. - **Strategy**: The short - term near - month contracts are supported, but the medium - term supply pressure is high [78]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The price of eggs was mostly stable. The supply, demand, and inventory are analyzed [79]. - **Strategy**: The near - month contracts are strong in the short - term, but the overall supply is sufficient, and the long - term outlook for the far - end contracts is uncertain [80]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The prices of soybean and rapeseed meal futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by policies and imports [81]. - **Strategy**: The prices of protein meals have fallen to the previous low, with many negative news. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [82]. Oils - **Market Information**: The prices of oils futures changed. The supply and demand situation is affected by production, consumption, and policies [83][84]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamentals are weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [85]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The price of sugar fell. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports and production in different countries [86][88]. - **Strategy**: After the negative impact of production increase is realized, there may be a rebound in international sugar prices. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term [89]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The price of cotton oscillated. The supply and demand situation is affected by imports, production, and consumption [90][91]. - **Strategy**: In the long - term, there is room for the cotton price to rise. It is recommended to wait for a correction and then go long [92].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the medium to long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, attention should be paid to market rhythm. For stock index futures, the strategy is to buy on dips. For Treasury bonds, the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter. For precious metals, there are medium - term bullish factors. For most commodities, the overall market sentiment is expected to be bullish, but there are short - term fluctuations and different supply - demand situations for each variety [4][7][9]. Summary by Categories 1. Macro - financial Stock Index - **Market Information**: Shanghai's "15th Five - Year Plan" focuses on six key areas. The Ministry of Finance provides fiscal subsidies for technology - innovation loans, and the central bank offers re - loans. Spot silver has reached $95 per ounce, up 33% this year, and spot gold is up nearly 10%. Some违规 accounts on Xueqiu have been permanently banned [2]. - **Basis Point Ratios**: The basis point ratios of IF, IC, IM, and IH for different contract periods are provided [3]. - **Strategy**: In the long term, policies support the capital market, but in the short term, pay attention to market rhythm and adopt a strategy of buying on dips [4]. Treasury Bonds - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the closing prices of TL, T, TF, and TS main contracts changed by 0.51%, 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.04% respectively. The Ministry of Finance will implement a more active fiscal policy in 2026, and the personal consumption loan fiscal subsidy policy is extended to the end of 2026. The central bank conducted 324 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 34.6 billion yuan [5][6]. - **Strategy**: The economic recovery momentum needs to be observed, and domestic demand depends on residents' income and policy support. The central bank may cut reserve requirements and interest rates, and the market is expected to remain volatile in the first quarter [7]. Precious Metals - **Market Information**: Shanghai gold rose 1.98%, and Shanghai silver fell 0.56%. COMEX gold and silver prices are reported. Poland plans to buy 150 tons of gold, and the US - EU relationship is tense, which is beneficial to gold [8]. - **Strategy**: In the medium term, the Fed may increase the easing amplitude, and it is recommended to buy on dips after price corrections [9]. 2. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased, and copper prices fell. LME copper closed at $12,796 per ton, down 1.47%, and Shanghai copper closed at 99,930 yuan per ton [11]. - **Strategy**: The expectation of Trump's tariff on key minerals is weakening, and the market sentiment is cooling. The copper price is expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [12]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market risk preference weakened, and aluminum prices fell. LME aluminum closed at $3,118 per ton, down 1.48%, and Shanghai aluminum closed at 23,775 yuan per ton [13]. - **Strategy**: Tensions between the US and Europe have weakened market sentiment, but high US aluminum premiums and low global LME aluminum inventory limit the downside of aluminum prices. The price is expected to be supported in the short term [14]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index fell 0.16% to 24,417 yuan per ton. LME zinc rose to $3,227 per ton. The social inventory of zinc ingots increased [15][16]. - **Strategy**: The port inventory of zinc ore and the import TC of zinc concentrate decreased slightly, and the zinc price has room to catch up compared with copper and aluminum. The zinc price is expected to follow the sector and may fluctuate [17]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index rose 0.25% to 17,228 yuan per ton. LME lead rose to $2,058 per ton. The social inventory of lead ingots increased [18]. - **Strategy**: The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, and the downstream demand is improving marginally. The lead price may fluctuate with the sector [19]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 20, the Shanghai nickel main contract fell 0.67% to 141,360 yuan per ton. The price of nickel ore was stable, and the price of nickel iron rose [20]. - **Strategy**: Although the production of refined nickel is expected to increase in January, the inventory has not reflected it. The Shanghai nickel price is expected to fluctuate widely in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [21]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 20, the Shanghai tin main contract rose 2.44% to 399,000 yuan per ton. The supply is limited by raw materials and high prices, and the demand is weak. The inventory has increased [22]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of tin has improved marginally, but the inventory increase may put pressure on the price. The tin price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to wait and see [22]. Carbonate Lithium - **Market Information**: The spot index of carbonate lithium rose 5.52%. The import of carbonate lithium in December increased by 9% month - on - month and decreased by 14% year - on - year [23]. - **Strategy**: There are uncertainties in the lithium mine, and the supply contraction expectation has not been falsified. It is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [24]. Alumina - **Market Information**: On January 20, the alumina index fell 2.21% to 2,666 yuan per ton. The spot price in Shandong decreased, and the import loss was reported. The futures inventory decreased [25][26]. - **Strategy**: The price of ore is expected to decline, and the alumina market has problems such as over - capacity and high inventory. It is recommended to wait and see [27]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the stainless steel main contract rose 0.28% to 14,345 yuan per ton. The spot price in Foshan and Wuxi changed, and the raw material price increased. The social inventory decreased [28]. - **Strategy**: The supply of nickel ore is expected to be tight, and the stainless steel market is expected to be strong in the short term, with the price fluctuating at a high level [28]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main contract AD2603 fell 0.55% to 22,765 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased [29]. - **Strategy**: The cost is strong, and the supply is disturbed, but the demand is general. The price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [30]. 3. Black Building Materials Steel - **Market Information**: The closing price of the rebar main contract fell 0.92% to 3,111 yuan per ton, and the hot - rolled coil main contract fell 0.69% to 3,276 yuan per ton. The inventory and spot price changed [32]. - **Strategy**: The steel market is in a bottom - range shock. The safety inspection after the Baotou steel explosion may support the price of hot - rolled coils. The actual demand is weak, and attention should be paid to inventory and policy changes [33]. Iron Ore - **Market Information**: The main contract of iron ore (I2605) fell 0.57% to 789.50 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [34]. - **Strategy**: The overseas iron ore shipment is decreasing, and the port inventory is increasing. The price may adjust in the short term, and attention should be paid to the replenishment of steel mills and iron - water production [35][36]. Coking Coal and Coke - **Market Information**: On January 20, the coking coal main contract (JM2605) fell 4.30% to 1,124 yuan per ton, and the coke main contract (J2605) fell 2.76% to 1,673.5 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [37]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of coking coal and coke is relatively balanced. The price is expected to fluctuate strongly, but there are risks of short - term market sentiment shocks [39][40][41]. Glass and Soda Ash - **Glass** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the glass main contract fell 1.31% to 1,056 yuan per ton. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [42]. - **Strategy**: The glass market sentiment is weakening. The supply is low, and the demand is light. The price is expected to fluctuate widely [43]. - **Soda Ash** - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the soda ash main contract fell 1.26% to 1,177 yuan per ton. The inventory increased slightly, and the positions of long and short changed [44]. - **Strategy**: Affected by the glass market, the soda ash market is weak. The supply is abundant, and the demand is weak. The price is expected to remain weak in the short term [44]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - **Market Information**: On January 20, the manganese silicon main contract (SM603) fell 0.83% to 5,760 yuan per ton, and the ferrosilicon main contract (SF603) rose 0.07% to 5,552 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [45]. - **Strategy**: The market sentiment is retreating, and the supply - demand of manganese silicon is loose, while that of ferrosilicon is balanced. Future market drivers may come from the overall market sentiment and cost factors [47][48]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - **Industrial Silicon** - **Market Information**: The main contract of industrial silicon (SI2605) fell 1.13% to 8,745 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [49]. - **Strategy**: The price of industrial silicon fluctuated and fell. The supply is expected to decrease, and the demand is weakening. The price may fluctuate due to news [50]. - **Polysilicon** - **Market Information**: The main contract of polysilicon (PS2605) rose 0.39% to 50,700 yuan per ton. The spot price and basis are reported [52]. - **Strategy**: The market is in a wait - and - see state. The supply pressure of polysilicon is expected to ease, and the price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [53]. 4. Energy and Chemicals Rubber - **Market Information**: The rubber price fluctuated weakly. The tire factory's operating rate increased, and the social inventory of natural rubber increased [55][56]. - **Strategy**: The rubber price is expected to continue to fall after consolidation. It is recommended to short on the break of 16,000 for RU2605 and partially build positions for the strategy of buying NR main contract and shorting RU2609 [58]. Crude Oil - **Market Information**: The INE main crude oil futures fell 1.27% to 437 yuan per barrel. The inventories of related refined products and crude oil increased [59]. - **Strategy**: The Latin - American geopolitical situation does not have enough positive impact on the overall oil price, but the valuation of heavy - oil products is expected to rise [60]. Methanol - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of methanol changed, and the main futures contract changed [61]. - **Strategy**: The current valuation of methanol is low, and there is a chance of improvement in the future. It is recommended to buy on dips [62]. Urea - **Market Information**: The regional spot price of urea changed, and the main futures contract changed [63][64]. - **Strategy**: The import window of urea has opened, and the fundamental negative expectation is coming. It is recommended to take profits on rallies [65]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - **Market Information**: The cost of pure benzene was stable, the spot price of styrene rose, and the futures price fell. The supply - demand and profit indicators changed [66]. - **Strategy**: The non - integrated profit of styrene is low, and there is room for valuation repair. It is recommended to go long on the non - integrated profit of styrene before the first quarter [67]. PVC - **Market Information**: The PVC05 contract rose to 4,807 yuan. The cost, supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [68]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PVC is strong, and the demand is weak. The short - term electricity price and export incentives may support the price, but it is recommended to short on rallies in the medium term [69]. Ethylene Glycol - **Market Information**: The EG05 contract fell to 3,661 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [70]. - **Strategy**: The overall load of ethylene glycol is still high, and the inventory is expected to continue to accumulate. It is necessary to pay attention to the risk of rebound and compress the valuation in the medium term [71]. PTA - **Market Information**: The PTA05 contract rose to 5,144 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [72]. - **Strategy**: The supply of PTA is expected to be high in the short term, and the demand will decline due to the off - season. It is expected to enter the inventory - accumulation stage during the Spring Festival. There is room for valuation increase after the Spring Festival [73]. p - Xylene - **Market Information**: The PX03 contract rose to 7,232 yuan. The supply, demand, and inventory indicators changed [74]. - **Strategy**: The PX load is high, and the downstream PTA is under maintenance. It is expected to accumulate inventory before the maintenance season. There is a chance to go long on dips following the crude oil price after the Spring Festival [75]. Polyethylene (PE) - **Market Information**: The main contract of PE fell to 6,640 yuan. The upstream operating rate increased, and the inventory decreased [76]. - **Strategy**: The crude oil price may bottom out, and the PE valuation has downward space. The supply pressure is relieved, and the demand is in the off - season. The price may be supported [77]. Polypropylene (PP) - **Market Information**: The main contract of PP fell to 6,461 yuan. The upstream operating rate decreased slightly, and the inventory decreased [78]. - **Strategy**: The supply - demand of PP is weak, and the inventory pressure is high. The price may bottom out in the first quarter of next year. It is recommended to go long on the PP5 - 9 spread on dips [79][80]. 5. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - **Market Information**: The domestic pig price generally fell, and the market demand was weak [82]. - **Strategy**: Low prices and the festival effect stimulate consumption, and the short - term price may be strong. However, the medium - term supply pressure is large, and the price may be under pressure [83]. Eggs - **Market Information**: The national egg price was mostly stable, and the supply and demand were normal [84]. - **Strategy**: The spot price of eggs has increased during the pre - holiday stocking period, and the near - month contract may fluctuate strongly. The long - term outlook is positive, but there are uncertainties [85]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - **Market Information**: The protein meal futures price fluctuated. The spot price of soybean meal decreased, and the spot price of rapeseed meal increased. The import, supply, and demand data of soybeans and rapeseed are reported [86][87]. - **Strategy**: The USDA report is slightly negative, and China's purchase of US soybeans and potential reduction of Canadian rapeseed import tariffs are negative for domestic meal prices. The short - term price may fluctuate greatly [88]. Oils and Fats - **Market Information**: The oil futures price rebounded. The domestic three - major oil inventories decreased, and the supply - demand data of palm oil and other oils are reported [89][90]. - **Strategy**: The current fundamental situation of oils and fats is weak, but the long - term outlook is optimistic. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [91]. Sugar - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price fell. The spot price of sugar decreased, and the import and production data are reported [92][93]. - **Strategy**: The international sugar price may rebound after the northern hemisphere's sugar - making season ends. The domestic sugar price has limited downward space in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [94]. Cotton - **Market Information**: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price of cotton decreased, and the import, supply, and demand data are reported [95][96]. - **Strategy**: In the medium -

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Trump's expectation of imposing tariffs on key minerals weakens, and the US plans to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, causing the equity market to weaken and market sentiment to cool. In the copper industry, the supply of copper mines remains tight, the LME market spot is relatively strong but North American inventories are increasing marginally, and the supply of refined copper is relatively surplus. Therefore, copper prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust in the short term [3][4]. - Tensions between Europe and the US have weakened market sentiment. However, the high premium of US aluminum spot and the low global LME aluminum inventory at multi - year lows limit the downward space of aluminum prices. Although high prices still affect domestic downstream demand, as prices decline, downstream inventory replenishment is expected to increase, and with the "rush to export" expectation in the photovoltaic industry, aluminum prices still have support in the short term [4][5]. - The cost of cast aluminum alloy is relatively strong, and supply - side disturbances continue, providing strong price support. However, demand is relatively average, so prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [8][9]. - The visible inventory of lead concentrates is declining, the operating rate of primary lead remains high and is further slightly adjusted upwards, the raw material inventory of the secondary lead end is rising, and the weekly operating rate of secondary lead is marginally adjusted upwards. The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, the operating rate of downstream battery enterprises is marginally improving, and the social inventory of lead ingots is marginally accumulating. Lead prices have given back some gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector fades, but the non - ferrous sector is still bullish in the medium term during the double - loose cycle, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [11][12][13]. - The port inventory of zinc ore has slightly declined, and the imported TC of zinc concentrates has slightly declined. Although the rise in zinc prices has slightly increased zinc smelting profits, the industrial situation has not significantly improved. The social inventory of zinc ingots has started to accumulate, and the Shanghai - London ratio has stagnated and declined. Zinc prices still have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. Zinc prices have given back some gains as the sentiment in the non - ferrous sector fades, but the non - ferrous sector is still bullish in the double - loose cycle, and the subsequent trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [14][15]. - The supply - demand situation of tin has marginally improved, but the short - term inventory accumulation trend may continue to put pressure on prices. Coupled with the withdrawal of speculative funds, tin prices may fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see. [16][17][18] - Although there is an expectation of an increase in refined nickel production in January, it has not been continuously reflected in the visible inventory. It is expected that Shanghai nickel will still fluctuate widely in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The progress of mine type changes in two lithium mines in Jiangxi has been made, but the market is more worried about the reduction of mica ore mining due to compliance issues. The main contract of lithium carbonate hit the daily limit at the end of the session. The uncertainty of the mine end is strong in the short term, and the expectation of supply contraction has not been falsified. Market sentiment fluctuates greatly. It is recommended to wait and see or make a light - position attempt [21][22]. - After the rainy season, the shipments from Guinea are gradually recovering, and the AXIS mine is resuming production. Ore prices are expected to fluctuate downward. The over - capacity pattern in the alumina smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and the inventory accumulation trend continues. Although the market's expectation of supply contraction policies is increasing, there are still three difficulties for continuous rebound. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [24][25]. - The supply of nickel ore in Indonesia is expected to remain tight, and market sentiment is optimistic. Stainless steel shows a trend of increasing volume and price. The supply of raw materials is restricted, the production scheduling of many mainstream steel mills has slowed down, and market arrivals are tight. Although price increases have stimulated some traders to stock up, end - users' acceptance of high prices is limited. In the short term, the market is expected to remain strong, and prices may show a high - level fluctuation pattern [27][28]. 3. Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: Overnight, European and American stock markets weakened, LME copper inventory increased significantly, and copper prices declined. LME copper 3M closed down 1.47% to $12,796/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 99,930 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 8,875 tons to 156,300 tons, with the increase coming from Asian and North American warehouses. The proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium. The daily warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 0.4 to 148,000 tons. The spot in Shanghai was at a discount of 150 yuan/ton to the futures, and the market trading sentiment was weak. The spot in Guangdong was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the futures, and trading was average. The import loss of Shanghai copper spot was about 1,400 yuan/ton. The price difference between refined and scrap copper was 3,000 yuan/ton, narrowing month - on - month. In December 2025, the import volume of copper scrap increased year - on - year and month - on - month [3]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The main contract of Shanghai copper is expected to trade in the range of 98,000 - 101,000 yuan/ton, and LME copper 3M is expected to trade in the range of $12,500 - 13,000/ton [4]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: Market risk appetite weakened, and aluminum prices corrected. LME aluminum closed down 1.48% to $3,118/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,775 yuan/ton. The weighted contract position of Shanghai aluminum slightly increased to 699,000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.2 to 140,000 tons. The inventory of domestic aluminum ingots in three major regions increased month - on - month, and the inventory of aluminum rods slightly increased. The processing fee of aluminum rods continued to rebound, and market sentiment was cautious. The spot of electrolytic aluminum in East China was at a discount of 160 yuan/ton to the futures, and downstream purchasing sentiment weakened. LME aluminum ingot inventory decreased by 0.2 to 483,000 tons, the proportion of cancelled warrants declined, and Cash/3M maintained a premium [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The main contract of Shanghai aluminum is expected to trade in the range of 23,500 - 24,100 yuan/ton, and LME aluminum 3M is expected to trade in the range of $3,080 - 3,150/ton [5][6]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of cast aluminum alloy fluctuated weakly. The main AD2603 contract closed down 0.55% to 22,765 yuan/ton (as of 3 pm). The weighted contract position declined to 23,800 lots, and the trading volume was 11,800 lots, with increased trading volume. The warehouse receipts decreased by 0.06 to 69,100 tons. The price difference between the AL2603 contract and the AD2603 contract was 1,185 yuan/ton, narrowing slightly month - on - month. The average price of ADC12 in domestic mainstream regions decreased, and the price of imported ADC12 decreased by 100 yuan/ton. Trading activity was still average. The inventory of aluminum alloy ingots in three major regions decreased by 0.01 to 43,100 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Cast aluminum alloy prices are expected to fluctuate and consolidate in the short term [9]. Lead - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai lead index closed up 0.25% to 17,228 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 112,000 lots. As of 3 pm on Tuesday, LME lead 3S rose 9.5 to $2,058/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 165,700 lots. The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 17,000 yuan/ton, the average price of secondary refined lead was 16,900 yuan/ton, the price difference between refined and scrap lead was 100 yuan/ton, and the average price of waste electric vehicle batteries was 10,075 yuan/ton. The lead ingot futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 27,600 tons, the domestic primary basis was - 140 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 60 yuan/ton. The LME lead ingot inventory was 203,500 tons, and the LME lead ingot cancelled warrants were 40,800 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 47.13 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 115.6 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the futures was 1.21, and the profit and loss of lead ingot imports was 106.78 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of lead ingots in major domestic markets was 29,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons compared with January 15. According to the LME announcement, from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brand YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, the special high - purity zinc brands KZ - SHG99.995 and the KZ - LEAD brand lead produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd [11]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the non - ferrous sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [12][13]. Zinc - **Market Information**: On Tuesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 0.16% to 24,417 yuan/ton, with a total unilateral trading position of 226,000 lots. As of 3 pm on Tuesday, LME zinc 3S rose 4.5 to $3,227/ton compared with the previous day, with a total position of 233,700 lots. The average price of SMM0 zinc ingots was 24,340 yuan/ton, the Shanghai basis was 40 yuan/ton, the Tianjin basis was - 20 yuan/ton, the Guangdong basis was 5 yuan/ton, and the price difference between Shanghai and Guangdong was 35 yuan/ton. The zinc ingot futures inventory of the Shanghai Futures Exchange was 32,400 tons, the domestic Shanghai region basis was 40 yuan/ton, and the price difference between the continuous contract and the first - consecutive contract was - 45 yuan/ton. The LME zinc ingot inventory was 105,100 tons, and the LME zinc ingot cancelled warrants were 8,500 tons. The foreign cash - 3S contract basis was - 41.66 dollars/ton, and the 3 - 15 price difference was - 4.06 dollars/ton. After excluding exchange rates, the Shanghai - London price ratio of the futures was 1.092, and the profit and loss of zinc ingot imports was - 2,034.38 yuan/ton. According to Steel Union data, the social inventory of zinc ingots in major domestic markets was 112,100 tons, an increase of 5,700 tons compared with January 15. According to the LME announcement, from April 14, 2026, it will no longer accept further deliveries of the special high - purity zinc brand YP - SHG produced by YoungPoong Company, the special high - purity zinc brands KZ - SHG99.995 and the KZ - LEAD brand lead produced by Korea Zinc Co., Ltd [14]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Zinc prices still have a large room for catch - up compared with copper and aluminum. The subsequent trends of leading varieties in the non - ferrous sector and the Shanghai - London ratio need to be observed [15]. Tin - **Market Information**: On January 20, tin prices stabilized and rebounded. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 399,000 yuan/ton, a 2.44% increase from the previous day. The registered warehouse receipts of the Shanghai Futures Exchange decreased by 461 tons from the previous day to 8,860 tons. In terms of supply, the smelting operating rates of tin ingots in Yunnan and Jiangxi were generally stable at a high level. Yunnan was about 87.81%, basically unchanged and with normal production. Jiangxi's refined tin output was still low due to the shortage of scrap tin raw materials. The resumption of production in Wa State, Myanmar, was accelerating, and the rise in tin prices increased the enthusiasm for resumption of production. In December, it was estimated that about 5,000 tons of tin ore would be imported, and the raw material shortage in Yunnan had been significantly alleviated compared with the previous period, with an expected increase in subsequent imports. However, after the two regions recovered from maintenance, there was insufficient upward momentum, and there were both constraints on the scrap end and high - price wait - and - see attitudes from downstream. In the short term, supply was difficult to increase significantly. In terms of demand, the sharp rise in Shanghai tin futures prices last week significantly suppressed downstream purchasing willingness. Currently, enterprises generally followed up with small amounts based on rigid demand, controlled inventory levels, and there was no obvious release of spot circulation. Under the high - premium pattern, market trading was light, and the operating rates of some processing enterprises decreased significantly. As of January 16, 2026, the social inventory of tin ingots in major domestic markets was 10,636 tons, an increase of 2,560 tons from last Friday [16][17]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The domestic main contract is expected to trade in the range of 360,000 - 420,000 yuan/ton, and the overseas LME tin is expected to trade in the range of $47,000 - 51,000/ton [18]. Nickel - **Market Information**: On January 20, nickel prices fluctuated narrowly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 141,360 yuan/ton, a 0.67% decrease from the previous day. In the spot market, the premiums and discounts of various brands varied. The average premium of Russian nickel spot to the near - month contract was 550 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton from the previous day. The average premium of Jinchuan nickel spot was 7,850 yuan/ton, an increase of 400 yuan/ton from the previous day. In terms of cost, nickel ore prices remained stable. The ex - factory price of 1.6% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $54.54/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day, and the ex - factory price of 1.2% grade Indonesian domestic red clay nickel ore was $23/wet ton, unchanged from the previous day. In terms of nickel iron, prices rose significantly. The average price of 10 - 12% high - nickel pig iron was 1,028.5 yuan/nickel point, an increase of 1 yuan/nickel point from the previous day [19]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: It is recommended to wait and see. The short - term price of Shanghai nickel is expected to trade in the range of 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and the LME nickel 3M contract is expected to trade in the range of $16,000 - 19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The evening quotation of the Wuganglian lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) was 152,431 yuan, a 5.52% increase from the previous working day. Among them, the quotation of MMLC battery - grade lithium carbonate was 149,500 - 156,400 yuan, and the average price increased by 8,050 yuan (+5.56%) from the previous working day. The quotation of industrial - grade lithium carbonate was 146,200 - 153,200 yuan, and the average price increased by 5.31% from the previous day. The closing price of the LC2605 contract was 160,500 yuan, an 8.99% increase from the previous closing price. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 1,600 yuan. According to customs data, in December, China imported 23,989 tons of lithium carbonate, a 9% increase from the previous month and a 14% decrease from the same period last

Group 1: Investment Ratings - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. Group 2: Core Views - The copper market is affected by factors such as the weakening expectation of Trump's tariff on key minerals, the plan of the US to impose tariffs on 8 European countries, and the loose liquidity expectation in the US financial market. The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate to balance supply and demand [3]. - The aluminum price has fallen due to the continuous accumulation of domestic aluminum ingot inventory and the cooling of the precious metal and copper markets. However, the high spot premium in the US and the low LME global aluminum inventory limit the downward space of the aluminum price. The short - term aluminum price may be relatively firm [5][6]. - The casting aluminum alloy has strong price support due to the strong cost and continuous supply - side disturbances, but the demand is relatively average, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate [9]. - For lead, the supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, the downstream battery enterprises' operating rate is improving marginally, and the social inventory is accumulating. The short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [13]. - Zinc has a large room for price compensation compared with copper and aluminum. Although the zinc price has given back some gains, the non - ferrous sector is still regarded as bullish in the double - wide cycle, and the subsequent trends need to be observed [15]. - The tin market has weak demand and an expected improvement in supply. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite, and it is recommended to wait and see [17]. - Nickel has a large surplus pressure, and the short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely. It is recommended to wait and see [19]. - The lithium carbonate price has fluctuated greatly. The current price has certain emotional premiums, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position [23]. - For alumina, the ore price is expected to decline, the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling opportunities [26][27]. - Stainless steel is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend in the short term, with prices in a high - level volatile pattern due to supply shortages, falling inventories, and significant cost support [29]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Friday, the domestic equity market adjusted, the precious metal price and copper price declined. LME copper 3M closed down 2.48% to $12,822/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 100,280 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory increased by 2,450 to 143,575 tons, and the domestic SHFE weekly inventory increased by 33,000 to 214,000 tons [2]. Strategy Views - The short - term copper price is expected to fluctuate to balance supply and demand. The reference range for the Shanghai copper main contract is 98,000 - 102,000 yuan/ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,500 - $13,000/ton [3]. Aluminum Market Information - On Friday, the aluminum price continued to fall. LME aluminum closed down 1.29% to $3,130/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 23,945 yuan/ton. The domestic aluminum ingot three - place inventory decreased, and the aluminum rod inventory increased slightly [4]. Strategy Views - The short - term aluminum price may be relatively firm. The reference range for the Shanghai aluminum main contract is 23,800 - 24,200 yuan/ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,090 - $3,160/ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy Market Information - On Friday, the casting aluminum alloy price continued to fall. The main AD2603 contract closed down 1.81% to 22,735 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the trading volume remained at a relatively high level [8]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate and consolidate due to strong cost support and average demand [9]. Lead Market Information - On Friday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.37% to 17,473 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S fell to $2,075/ton. The social inventory of lead ingots increased [11]. Strategy Views - The supply of lead ingots is increasing marginally, and the short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [13]. Zinc Market Information - On Friday, the Shanghai zinc index closed down 1.38% to 24,746 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S fell to $3,264/ton. The zinc ingot social inventory decreased slightly [14]. Strategy Views - Zinc has a large room for price compensation compared with copper and aluminum. The short - term price needs to observe the trends of leading varieties in the sector and the Shanghai - London ratio [15]. Tin Market Information - On Friday, the tin price dropped significantly. The Shanghai tin main contract closed at 405,240 yuan/ton, down 6.38%. The supply is expected to improve, and the demand is mainly rigid [16]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate with market risk appetite, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 360,000 - 430,000 yuan/ton, and for overseas LME tin is $45,000 - $53,000/ton [17]. Nickel Market Information - On January 16th, the nickel price dropped significantly. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 139,890 yuan/ton, down 1.03%. The spot premium decreased [18]. Strategy Views - The short - term price is expected to fluctuate widely, and it is recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the Shanghai nickel price is 130,000 - 160,000 yuan/ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,000 - $19,000/ton [19]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - On Friday, the Five - Mineral Steel Union lithium carbonate spot index (MMLC) decreased. The prices of battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate declined [22]. Strategy Views - The current price has certain emotional premiums, and it is recommended to wait and see or try with a light position. The reference range for the Guangzhou Futures Exchange lithium carbonate main contract is 139,500 - 149,000 yuan/ton [23]. Alumina Market Information - On January 16th, the alumina index fell 1.26% to 2,745 yuan/ton. The futures inventory increased, and the ore price decreased [25]. Strategy Views - The ore price is expected to decline, and the over - capacity pattern of the smelting end is difficult to change in the short term. It is recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling opportunities. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2605 is 2,650 - 2,800 yuan/ton [26][27]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Friday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 14,275 yuan/ton, down 0.97%. The social inventory decreased [29]. Strategy Views - The short - term market is expected to maintain a relatively strong trend, with prices in a high - level volatile pattern. The reference range for the main contract is 13,900 - 14,650 yuan/ton [29].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The copper market is affected by factors such as supply tightness and LME spot strength, with prices expected to fluctuate in the short term [2][3]. - The aluminum market has positive drivers from overseas low - inventory and strong spot supply - demand, and is expected to remain relatively strong [4][6]. - The casting aluminum alloy price is supported by cost and supply disturbances, and is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. - The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the sentiment of the non - ferrous sector, with increased short - term volatility [10][12]. - The zinc price is also expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment, with potential for a significant price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. - The tin price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference, and it's recommended to wait and see [14][15]. - The nickel price is expected to have wide - range fluctuations, and short - term waiting is recommended [16]. - The lithium carbonate price has a high risk of correction, and it's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach [18][19]. - For alumina, it's recommended to wait and see, and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices [21][22]. - The stainless steel price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [24][25]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper - **Market Information**: The LME copper 3M fell slightly by 0.12% to $13,156 per ton, and the SHFE copper main contract closed at 103,540 yuan per ton. LME copper inventory increased by 4,325 tons to 141,550 tons, and SHFE daily warehouse receipts increased by 0.6 to 122,000 tons [2]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Despite high copper prices suppressing consumption and inventory accumulation pressure in China, the tight supply at the mine end and strong LME spot support copper prices. Short - term prices are expected to fluctuate. The reference range for the SHFE copper main contract is 102,000 - 105,200 yuan per ton, and for LME copper 3M is $12,900 - $13,400 per ton [3]. Aluminum - **Market Information**: The LME aluminum closed slightly up 0.16% at $3,196 per ton, and the SHFE aluminum main contract closed at 24,780 yuan per ton. SHFE weighted contract positions decreased by 21,000 to 771,000 lots, and futures warehouse receipts increased by 3,000 to 101,000 tons. LME aluminum inventory decreased by 2,000 to 494,000 tons [4]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: With weak US inflation data, the market sentiment is slightly positive. Although there is inventory accumulation pressure in China, overseas factors and domestic downstream start - up and export expectations are positive for aluminum prices. The reference range for the SHFE aluminum main contract is 24,400 - 25,000 yuan per ton, and for LME aluminum 3M is $3,160 - $3,230 per ton [6]. Casting Aluminum Alloy - **Market Information**: The price of the main casting aluminum alloy contract AD2603 fell 0.75% to 23,165 yuan per ton. The weighted contract positions decreased to 27,600 lots, with a trading volume of 31,300 lots. Warehouse receipts decreased by 400 to 68,800 tons. The domestic aluminum alloy inventory decreased by 200 to 43,900 tons [8]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Supported by cost and supply disturbances, and with average demand, the price is expected to fluctuate slightly upward [8]. Lead - **Market Information**: The SHFE lead index fell 0.66% to 17,348 yuan per ton, and the LME lead 3S fell $5.5 to $2,054 per ton. The SMM1 lead ingot average price was 17,175 yuan per ton. SHFE lead futures inventory was 21,000 tons, and LME lead inventory was 221,500 tons [10]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The lead price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. The current price is near the upper limit of the long - term oscillation range, and short - term volatility will increase [11][12]. Zinc - **Market Information**: The SHFE zinc index rose 0.45% to 24,275 yuan per ton, and the LME zinc 3S rose $21 to $3,202.5 per ton. The SMM0 zinc ingot average price was 24,330 yuan per ton. SHFE zinc futures inventory was 33,600 tons, and LME zinc inventory was 106,800 tons [13]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The zinc price is expected to fluctuate widely following the non - ferrous sector sentiment. It has a large potential for price increase compared to copper and aluminum [13]. Tin - **Market Information**: The SHFE tin main contract rose 0.64% to 379,330 yuan per ton. The supply in Myanmar is gradually recovering, but the willingness to start work in Yunnan is insufficient, and Jiangxi's production is low. The SMM tin ingot social inventory decreased by 1,042 tons to 7,478 tons last week [14][15]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Although demand is weak and supply is expected to improve, the price is expected to fluctuate according to market risk preference. It's recommended to wait and see. The reference range for the domestic main contract is 310,000 - 370,000 yuan per ton, and for overseas LME tin is $43,000 - $47,000 per ton [15]. Nickel - **Market Information**: The SHFE nickel main contract fell 3.99% to 138,450 yuan per ton. The spot premium of various brands was strong. The nickel ore price was stable, and the nickel iron price was also stable [16]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: There is still a large surplus pressure on nickel. The increase in inventory restricts price increases, but domestic liquidity support exists. The price is expected to fluctuate widely. Short - term waiting is recommended. The reference range for SHFE nickel is 120,000 - 150,000 yuan per ton, and for LME nickel 3M is $16,500 - $19,000 per ton [16]. Lithium Carbonate - **Market Information**: The MMLC spot index rose 6.78% to 163,427 yuan. The LC2605 contract closed up 7% at 166,980 yuan [18]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The market is dominated by bullish sentiment, but there is a high risk of correction. It's recommended to wait and see or take a light - position approach. The reference range for the GZCE lithium carbonate 2605 contract is 161,600 - 174,000 yuan per ton [19]. Alumina - **Market Information**: The alumina index fell 2.86% to 2,772 yuan per ton. The Shandong spot price fell 5 yuan to 2,590 yuan per ton, at a discount to the main contract. Overseas FOB price was stable at $308 per ton, with an import loss of 84 yuan per ton. Futures warehouse receipts increased by 2,400 to 166,600 tons [21]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: Ore prices are expected to decline. The alumina smelting capacity is in surplus, and there are difficulties in continuous rebound. It's recommended to wait and see and consider short - selling near - month contracts at high prices. The reference range for the domestic main contract AO2602 is 2,450 - 2,950 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel - **Market Information**: The stainless steel main contract closed at 13,790 yuan per ton, down 0.47%. Spot prices in some markets increased slightly. Raw material prices rose, and social inventory decreased by 2.97% to 948,300 tons [24][25]. - **Strategy Viewpoint**: The optimistic expectation of Indonesia's RKAB supports the price. With stable cost support, low supply, and continuous inventory reduction, the price is expected to maintain a high - level oscillating trend [25].