这是一个曾被比尔·盖茨、李嘉诚、小李子押注的千亿赛道，如今却沦为华尔街的笑话。2019年，Beyond Meat上市首日暴涨163%，一度被视为“拯救地球的未来”；而2025年，它的股价已较高点跌去99.5%，甚至沦为被散户爆炒的Meme“妖股”。更讽刺的是，为了生存，曾经的行业颠覆者Impossible Foods竟然宣布：考虑在植物肉里加“真肉”。 从受到全球资本疯狂追捧，到如今裁员、濒临破产，人造肉行业究竟做错了什么？是口感和价格的双输局面，还是资本健康神话的泡沫破裂？本期视频，我们将实地品尝硅谷现存的人造肉汉堡，并探访超市货架，翻开配料表、融资图，用亲身体验与客观数据揭开人造肉的真相。这场打着拯救地球旗号的科技精英主义实验，到底错在了哪里？人造肉还有机会东山再起吗？ 你会看到： 人造肉神话破灭：从华尔街宠儿到妖股玩具 黄金赛道急冻：资本骤冷、投资退潮，消费者们用脚投票 Beyond Meat绝境：10亿美元债务危机下“回光返照”的妖股 Impossible Foods叛变：撕下100%植物基的最后一块遮羞布 不香了的人造肉：口味与价格是永远的痛点 健康神话的破灭：从“健康食品”到“超加工食品”（UPF ...

昨日，白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈塞特表示，新的美联储领导层可能会降息，可能会在新年前后决定美联储主席（的任命）。 近期，拥有投票权的联邦公开市场委员会成员表态显示，支持降息与不支持降息的票委比例约为4比5，后者略占上风。 美联储理事库克、美联储副主席杰斐逊和美联储主席鲍威尔尚未对12月降息明确表态，这三人的政策倾向成为降息与否的核心"选票"。 分析师认为，12月暂停降息的概率或更高，最大不确定性来自鲍威尔如何塑造"共识"。在10月的美联储例会上，鲍威尔曾表示美联储内部对于未来降息的 分歧非常大。 据CME"美联储观察"，美联储12月降息25个基点的概率为71%，维持利率不变的概率为29%。 隔夜，现货黄金在剧烈震荡中顽强收稳，收报4077.17美元，全天最高冲至4110.03美元，最低跌至4038.82美元，波动幅度超过70美元。今日欧市盘中，黄 金窄幅震荡，目前在4071美元附近徘徊。 降息再添变数！ 上周五，美股三大指数全线上涨，截至收盘，道琼斯工业指数、纳斯达克指数、标普500指数分别上涨1.08%、0.88%、0.98%。 消息面上，美联储降息路径再添变数，美联储内部分歧在12月议息会议前加剧。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article argues that the impressive financial performance of Nvidia does not negate the existence of a potential bubble, emphasizing the distinction between wealth and money as a fundamental concept in understanding market dynamics [1][2]. Group 1: Understanding Wealth and Money - It is crucial to differentiate between financial wealth and money, as bubbles arise when the total financial wealth significantly exceeds the total money supply [2]. - A bubble can burst when the demand for money forces individuals to sell their wealth for cash, leading to a market collapse [2]. Group 2: Financial Wealth Dynamics - Financial wealth can be easily created, but this does not equate to real value, as seen in inflated valuations like Nvidia's $5 trillion market cap, which may not reflect true asset value [3][4]. - Financial wealth holds no value unless converted into spendable cash, highlighting the importance of liquidity in assessing market stability [3]. Group 3: Market Risks and Dynamics - The article illustrates that when everyone attempts to sell their assets simultaneously due to a liquidity crunch, prices can plummet, leading to a market crash [4]. - The current AI sector, particularly Nvidia, is amplifying risks due to wealth concentration among a few top companies and individuals, exacerbating income inequality [4]. Group 4: Nvidia's Market Position - Nvidia is positioned as a leading player in the AI sector, boasting a market cap that surpasses major companies like Apple and Microsoft, with a third-quarter profit of $57 billion and a 65% increase in net profit [4][5]. - Despite its strong financials, Nvidia's valuation may be unsustainable, likening it to a "tree" with shallow roots, vulnerable to market fluctuations [5][6]. Group 5: Potential Triggers for Market Correction - The article identifies three potential triggers for Nvidia's market correction: rising interest rates, the introduction of a wealth tax in California, and increased competition from other tech companies [13][14][15]. - A proposed 5% wealth tax targeting billionaires could force significant asset sales, leading to a liquidity crisis in the market [13]. Group 6: Competitive Landscape and Challenges - Nvidia's competitive edge, primarily its CUDA ecosystem, is under threat as major clients like Microsoft and Google develop their own chips, reducing dependency on Nvidia's products [10][11]. - The emergence of alternative technologies and competitors like AMD and Huawei is eroding Nvidia's pricing power and market dominance [12]. Group 7: Investor Behavior and Market Sentiment - The article highlights the contrasting behaviors of different investor groups, with hedge funds hedging their positions while retail investors remain overly optimistic about Nvidia's future [17]. - Ordinary investors, often unaware of the underlying risks, may become the most vulnerable in the event of a market downturn, as they are less prepared for potential losses [17]. Group 8: Conclusion and Market Outlook - The narrative surrounding Nvidia's growth may be built on speculative beliefs rather than solid fundamentals, suggesting that the current valuation could be unsustainable [22]. - The article concludes that while the AI revolution may be genuine, the bubble surrounding Nvidia's valuation could burst, emphasizing the importance of risk awareness in investment decisions [22].

Group 1 - The conference "万里同春·豫见未来——中原酿新势·2025中国消费智链创新峰会" was held in Zhengzhou, focusing on new consumption, new manufacturing, and new supply chains [1] - The event aimed to gather industry forces to share new models and experiences, and discuss collaborative innovation in the industrial chain and the cultivation of new productive forces [1] - The conference also explored how the capital market can empower the growth and leap of enterprises in the consumption sector [1] Group 2 - Shao Yu, Chief Economist at Fudan University, emphasized the significant role of artificial intelligence in the current global asset landscape [3] - He identified the previous major bubbles as real estate, US stocks, and Japanese government bonds, which have now shifted to gold, US high-tech stocks, and digital currencies [3] - Shao Yu described the valuation expansion of technology companies related to AI as "the largest bubble humanity has encountered," indicating that bubbles reflect the direction of capital and resource allocation [3] - He noted that the recent growth of large tech companies like Nvidia and Microsoft resembles a "game of order brushing," which inflated sales revenue and valuations, with Nvidia's market value surpassing 5 trillion [3] - The development of new productive forces in China is closely linked to AI, with the competition in the "15th Five-Year Plan" era extending from trade and supply chains to the monetary system [3] - Companies are urged to accelerate the reconstruction of global supply chains to maintain resilience in deeper G2 competition [3]

市场消息 比特币重挫，日内一度跌破8.2万美元。周五，比特币一度跌破82000美元关口，最低触及81111美元，创4月7日以来新低。截至 发稿，比特币跌超9%，报82885美元。值得一提的是，本周早些时候，比特币的下跌曾引发市场悲观情绪加剧，且这种情绪迅 速蔓延至全球多地股市。Fundstrat研究主管Tom Lee与盈透证券首席策略师Steve Sosnick指出，目前算法交易员正将比特币视为 一种"领先指标"，本质上它已成为投机热潮的替代参照。 美股跳前深蹲中?城堡证券：标普500年底有望冲击7000点。城堡证券股票及股票衍生品策略主管Scott Rubner预测，继一轮"健 康"的回调之后，标普500指数将出现强劲反弹，该指数到年底有可能达到7000点。据这位策略师称，其增长动力来自市场布局 以及有利的季节性因素的共同作用。根据Rubner的分析，近期市场的回调为强劲的复苏创造了有利条件，多种看涨因素将在接 下来的几个月里共同推动股价上涨。这些积极的推动因素包括散户交易员持续的需求以及在感恩节假期来临前机构投资者持仓 量的减少，这使得这些大型投资者有了更多空间来重新调整持仓。 盘前市场动向 1. 11月 ...

达利欧表示，美国科技股估值偏高、AI 热潮具备泡沫特征，但市场仍未出现"刺破泡沫"的关键条件。 关于人工智能（AI）热潮是否已进入泡沫区间的讨论在华尔街不断发酵。桥水基金（Bridgewater Associates）创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）近日在多家媒体采访中表达了不同观点。他认为，尽管估值 已处在偏高位置，但缺乏触发泡沫破裂的关键条件，"现在并不是从 AI 相关资产抽身的时候"。 黄金仍是关键配置 在加密资产方面，达利欧持相对谨慎的态度。他透露，比特币长期占其投资组合约1%，但对其能否成 为各国央行采用的储备资产信心不足。 他给出的理由主要有两点：第一，比特币的所有交易永久记录且可追踪，与主权货币体系的结构与隐私 要求存在根本差异；第二，量子计算未来可能带来的安全风险，使其长期稳定性仍存不确定性。 近期多家机构警示AI主题的高估值风险，但达利欧认为，市场是否进入泡沫并不是关键，更重要的是 泡沫何时会真正被刺破。他提到，从历史经验看，泡沫最终走向破裂通常与两类因素有关：其一是货币 政策突然收紧，其二是市场出现必须出售资产的压力。目前，这两种情形都不明显。 当地时间11月19日，英伟达最新财报显 ...

11月19日，申万宏源证券2026资本市场投资年会在上海举办， 申万宏源研究海外经济首席分析师陈达 飞，发表刚性"泡沫"——申万宏源2026年海外经济宏观展望，他认为，长期而言，AI革命的演化或仍处 于上半场，泡沫之后可能才是AI产业资本的"黄金时代"。 2022年底ChatGPT诞生以来，大类资产价格的泡沫化与分化并存，反映的是AI产业趋势的"强预期"和经 济周期"弱现实"的冲突。2025年，特朗普"对等关税"冲击有惊无险；美国经济"软着陆"；央行"降息 潮"继续演绎和美元"意外"走弱；权益等风险资产与黄金等避险资产"齐飞"。但历史回溯而言，当"强预 期"和"弱现实"的割裂演绎到极致时，"泡沫"破裂的风险或趋于上行。 专题：申万宏源2026资本市场投资年会 炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！ 2025年，AI资本开支成为美国经济的"新支柱"，但代表性企业的现金流压力和债务融资需求的约束也开 始显性化，美国AI高资本开支模式的可持续性值得关注。短期而言，宏微观条件或暂不构成AI"泡沫"的 逆风，但需要为金融资本的"狂热"和资产价格的"泡沫"建立完备的"监测清单"。展望未来 ...

针对"Meta公司以及硅谷其他公司是否在人工智能领域投入过多资金"的问题，Meta首席营销官兼分析副 总裁亚历克斯·舒尔茨近日在接受采访时表示："显然，任何 Meta 高管都不会对这个问题回答'是'。" 外媒称，Meta计划今年在人工智能基础设施方面投入高达720亿美元，并表示明年的支出还会更高。其 首席执行官马克·扎克伯格今年表示，他宁愿冒着"错失几千亿美元"的风险，也不愿在超级智能的研发 方面落后。亚马逊、谷歌、微软以及OpenAI等公司都在人工智能领域投入了创纪录的资本支出，涵盖 芯片、数据中心以及用于吸引和留住顶尖人工智能研发和工程人才的高薪。 虽然其中涉及的资金数额惊人，但舒尔茨表示，与历史上的泡沫相比，"它看起来很激进，但还不至于 疯狂"。 来源：环球网 【环球网科技综合报道】11月17日消息，据《商业内幕》报道，人工智能基础设施投资的爆炸式增长引 发了人们的担忧，即大型科技公司的最新一轮繁荣是否正滑向泡沫的深渊。 舒尔茨表示，Meta在人工智能领域的投资已经为公司带来了数十亿美元的收入，这些投资正在改进其 广告工具和内容排名算法。Meta预计今年的收入将达到约2000亿美元，市值约为1.5万亿美 ...

Group 1 - Gold prices experienced significant fluctuations, closing at $4000.91 after a drop of $1.57 or 0.04%, with a notable increase to around $4076 during European trading hours [1] - The U.S. stock market indices saw collective declines, with the Nasdaq down 3.04%, S&P 500 down 1.63%, and Dow Jones down 1.21% [2] - The U.S. government is expected to end its longest shutdown, with the Senate passing a temporary funding bill to provide government funding until January 30, 2026 [3][4] Group 2 - The potential economic impact of the government shutdown was highlighted, with warnings that continued shutdown could lead to negative economic growth in Q4 [5] - Recent announcements from the U.S. and China indicate a pause in certain trade measures, including the suspension of special port fees for U.S. vessels and the suspension of investigations into China's maritime and logistics sectors [6] - The upcoming release of the October CPI is anticipated to be a significant event, with analysts suggesting that a normal release could support interest rate cuts, while the absence of data may favor a more hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [7] Group 3 - Concerns regarding high valuations in the U.S. stock market, particularly among AI stocks and the so-called "Tech Seven," have been raised by various financial institutions [8] - UBS noted that while there are warnings about potential market turbulence, the current market is still in the early stages of a bubble, lacking extreme valuation levels seen during the 2000 internet bubble [8] Group 4 - International developments include a large-scale attack by Russia on Ukraine's energy infrastructure, leading to power outages in multiple regions [10] - Russian defense forces reported intercepting 79 Ukrainian drones over ten regions [11] - Public support for President Putin remains high, with 74.5% of Russians approving of his work according to a recent poll [13]

Core Insights - The report by Coatue concludes that AI is in the early "replacement/population" phase and has not yet reached a bubble peak, supported by healthy profit and cash flow from leading companies [1][2][10] - AI has generated $150 billion in revenue, demonstrating the rationality of capital expenditure through unprecedented technology adoption [2][4] - The current valuation levels in the AI sector are healthier compared to the internet bubble period, with the Nasdaq 100 index's forward P/E ratio projected at 28 times for 2025, significantly lower than the 89 times during the 1999 bubble [10][13] Group 1: AI Market Dynamics - AI technology is creating quantifiable investment returns across various industries, with significant revenue generation from programming assistants and efficiency improvements in knowledge work automation [4][5] - The market is transitioning from pilot projects to large-scale deployment of AI applications [5] - The investment landscape is characterized by a surge in private capital entering the AI sector, leading to the emergence of "super startups" [17][20] Group 2: Valuation Comparisons - The average P/E ratio of the top seven tech companies in 1999 was 67 times, while it is expected to be around 28 times in 2025, indicating a more stable financial environment for current tech giants [13][24] - The current valuation gap between tech and non-tech stocks remains within historical reasonable ranges, with tech companies generally exhibiting strong profitability and cash flow [17][24] Group 3: Future Projections - AI-driven industries are projected to generate $1.9 trillion in revenue annually by 2035, with a 20% return on invested capital (ROIC) [50] - AI technology is expected to account for 75% of the total market capitalization in the U.S. stock market, continuing a long-term trend of increasing market share for tech sectors [35][32] - The adoption rate of AI among enterprises has increased from 5% to 13%, indicating a transition phase before deeper integration and efficiency gains [38] Group 4: Economic Environment - The macroeconomic environment is stabilizing, with inflation expectations around 3% for 2025, fostering a favorable climate for technology investments [29][31] - The IPO market remains calm, with only 56 stock offerings projected for 2025, reflecting a more rational market sentiment compared to the 511 offerings during the 2000 bubble peak [51] Group 5: Risk Signals and Market Sentiment - There is a notable increase in retail investor leverage, approaching post-pandemic highs, which may indicate a degree of excessive optimism in the market [57] - Coatue identifies two potential futures for AI: a high-probability scenario of productivity gains and sustained low inflation, and a low-probability scenario of a bubble burst and economic downturn [61] Group 6: Historical Context - Historical phenomena once deemed "bubbles," such as the internet and cloud computing, evolved into long-term infrastructure, suggesting that AI is on a similar trajectory towards a productivity revolution [42][39] - The current AI wave is compared to previous technological supercycles, with significant growth potential still ahead as it is only in its early stages [64]