打出特色牌 消费市场活力十足 全省零售和餐饮消费金额实现291.35亿元，同比增长3.96% 10月3日，游客在承德避暑山庄文化市集购买商品。河北日报记者李佳泽摄 特色商圈人流如织，特色商品走红网络，特色餐馆排起长龙……今年国庆中秋假期，河北各地纷纷打出特色牌，紧抓消费旺季开展形式多样的促 消费活动，进一步挖掘消费潜力，激发消费热情，消费品市场保持增长。 数据见证消费市场的热辣滚烫。从省商务厅获悉，据银联商务大数据测算，10月1日至8日，全省零售和餐饮消费金额实现291.35亿元，同比增长 3.96%。其中，零售消费金额实现264.67亿元，同比增长3.87%；餐饮消费金额实现26.68亿元，同比增长4.86%。 这个假期，我省各大特色商圈人潮涌动，"买买买"气氛浓厚。 10月1日，位于邯郸道历史文化街区的邯宝坊旗舰店甫一开业，便成为街区顶流。店内，大名香油、临漳扒兔等来自20个县（市、区）的特色美食 琳琅满目。沉浸式文化体验别具一格，面塑匠人巧手还原"胡服骑射"中的将士英姿，葫芦烙画非物质文化遗产代表性传承人将成语故事勾勒于葫 芦之上，引得顾客驻足观赏。 来自山西的张振宇一口气选购了五套磁州窑工艺品，打算送 ...

瑞达期货研究院 「2025.10.10」 宏观市场周报 关 注 我 们 获 取 更 多 资 讯 作者：廖宏斌 期货投资咨询证号：Z0020723 联系电话：4008-8787-66 业务咨询 添加客服 目录 1、本周小结及下周 配置建议 2、重要新闻及事件 3、本周国内外经济 数据 4、下周重要经济指 标及经济大事 「本周小结及下周配置建议」 | 股票 | | 债券 | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | 沪深 300 -0.51% | | 10 年国债到期收益率-0.10%/本周变动-0.18BP | | | 沪深 300 股指期货 -0.63% | | 主力 10 年期国债期货 +0.09% | | | 本周点评：A股主要指数本周普遍下跌，仅上证指数微 | | 本周点评：本周国债期货涨跌不一，TF、T主力合约分 | | | 幅上涨。科创50、创业板指明显走弱跌超2%。四期指 | | 别上涨0.00%、0.09%。当前债市多空因素交织，经济 | | | 亦集体下行，中证500最为抗跌。本周，受到国庆期间 | | 数据显示"供强需弱"格局或延续，有效需求复苏基础 | | | 国内出 ...

● 本报记者 熊彦莎 国庆中秋假期，全国国内出游8.88亿人次，全国消费相关行业日均销售收入同比增长4.5%…… 国家税务总局等有关部门公布的最新数据显示，国庆中秋假期消费市场增势较好；数码产品、汽车消费 增长较快，旅游、文化艺术体育服务需求强劲，食品及保健品消费平稳增长。专家认为，在多元需求和 优质供给双重驱动下，国庆中秋假期的消费市场展现出强劲活力。随着更多扩内需相关政策的落地，消 费潜力有望持续释放，为经济高质量发展不断注入动能。 商品消费结构优化 "今年的国庆中秋假期，我回老家和家人团聚。我给爸妈买了新手机，中秋赏月时拍的照片效果真不 错。"在北京工作的田先生说。 国家税务总局最新发布的增值税发票数据显示，国庆中秋假期，数码产品、汽车、金银珠宝等商品消费 快速增长。手机等通讯器材销售收入同比增长18.8%，汽车销售收入同比增长12.6%，黄金价格上升带 动珠宝首饰销售收入同比增长41.1%。 "国庆中秋假期商品消费绿色智能导向鲜明，数码产品因以旧换新补贴销量攀升。升级类消费表现突 出，适老化改造产品、高端家电等受青睐。场景融合加速，线上直播间下单与线下即时配送结合，提升 购物体验。"苏商银行特约研究员 ...

一方面，消费市场繁荣活跃，这得益于政策与市场的同频共振。假期前后，各地通过发放消费券和落实以旧换新政策，有 效激发了居民消费潜力。例如，广西通过"购在中国·AI尚广西——2025金秋国际消费季"活动，组织开展多主题、多层次促消费 活动；四川统筹发放4亿元消费券，覆盖餐饮、零售、文旅等重点领域。 另一方面，供需两侧良性互动、共同升级。从供给端看，企业与地方正加速创新以适配市场，老字号推出创意套餐，景区 打造限定活动，政策从单一消费券向场景化服务升级，今年第四批690亿元超长期特别国债支持消费品以旧换新，进一步激活 了长效消费动能。这种供需两端的良性互动，正是中国经济能够抵御外部波动、实现内生增长的关键所在。 事实上，"双节"消费数据传递的积极信号说明，中国消费市场的基本盘依然稳固，经济发展的内生动力依然强劲。面对复 杂严峻的国际环境和国内经济转型的压力，消费这个经济增长的"压舱石"和"主引擎"依然发挥着关键作用。 尽管假期已经落幕，但消费市场的活力仍在延续。2025年"双节"消费的火热，不仅为四季度经济开局奠定良好基础，更是 中国经济基本面长期向好的有力证明。展望未来，随着政策精准发力与市场创新迭代，消费这驾" ...

商务部商务大数据监测显示，假期前四天，全国重点零售和餐饮企业销售额同比增长3.3%，消费市场 呈现繁荣活跃的良好态势。 节庆活动精彩纷呈，消费市场供需两旺 10月2日，江西芦溪县仙凤三宝园内，呦呦欢乐剧场座无虚席，儿童剧《莱杰的愿望》赢得阵阵掌声； 潮玩市集与法治文化广场上，特色小吃与手工艺品摊位前人头攒动。当地发放100万元消费券，以"政府 补贴+企业让利"双向发力，有效激发消费潜力。 10月2日，湖南株洲天泽华丽服装市场，数百家商户推出双节特惠、直播展演等活动，吸引消费者前来 打卡购物。"场景焕新带来消费增量。"活动主办方湖南天泽商业集团有限公司有关负责人介绍，假期首 日，市场客流量同比上升35%，采购订单量环比增长28%，省外采购商占比达16%。 《人民日报》(2025年10月06日 第 01 版) 习近平总书记强调："要积极扩大国内需求""创造更多消费场景，持续释放消费和投资潜力"。 国庆、中秋假期，各地区各部门通过政策支持和创新服务激发消费潜力，全国消费市场供给丰富、运行 平稳，居民消费需求集中释放，市场活力不断增强。 线下生活服务消费火热。高德扫街榜数据显示，假期首日，烟火小店流量环比增长300% ...

省领导张巍、安伟、陈星参加。（记者 刘婵 张笑闻） 责任编辑： 郭栩汝 10月1日上午，省委书记刘宁在省委总值班室以视频连线方式，检查调度节日期间安全稳定和值班值守工作，向奋战在一线的工作人员致以节日问候，希望 大家认真贯彻落实习近平总书记在庆祝中华人民共和国成立76周年招待会上和在河南考察时重要讲话精神，以"时时放心不下"的责任感，抓实抓细安全生产 各项工作，以积极担当作为的精气神，为党和人民履好职尽好责，切实维护人民群众生命财产安全和社会大局稳定，奋力谱写中原大地推进中国式现代化新 篇章。 刘宁随机调度了郑州市、开封市、洛阳市、安阳市、新乡市、信阳市，叮嘱大家要扛牢"促一方发展、保一方平安"政治责任，强化风险意识、树牢底线思 维，严格值班值守制度，建立健全常态化管理和应急管理动态衔接机制，统筹做好安全防范各项工作，以严实作风和务实举措全力防风险、保安全、护稳 定。要扎实开展社会治理，加大矛盾纠纷排查化解力度，加强大型群众性活动安全管控，落实便民利民措施，深化大气污染防治，以城市治理细心换群众过 节安心。要围绕"两节"优化市场供给，推出"真金白银"消费让利措施，满足多元化消费需求，营造良好消费环境。随后，刘 ...

国庆与中秋双节同庆，零售领域迎来年度消费高峰。国内首家分期购物平台分期乐商城将于10月1日正 式上线 "新潮好物节"，围绕秋季焕新、中秋团聚送礼、出行旅游的核心需求推出三重优惠。活动期 间，官方立减至高1000元的福利将覆盖全品类热门商品，且所有甄品惠商品均执行 "先质检后发货" 流 程，为用户的黄金周消费送上优惠与安心。 三重优惠补贴助力双节消费 本次 "新潮好物节"活动周期覆盖整个黄金周，用户可享平台、品类、商家三重优惠补贴，产品覆盖数 码新品、家电、美妆、鞋服等。活动期间，全品类核心爆款产品可享至高1000元官方立减优惠，从新款 iPhone17系列、智能家电到中秋礼品、出游潮流服饰，全方位覆盖消费者节日采购需求。 正品保障打消购物品质顾虑 责任编辑：郭栩彤 针对双节期间两大核心消费场景——中秋团聚送礼与假期出行，分期乐商城依托 "甄品惠" 模式搭建主 题消费场景，精准匹配消费需求。"中秋好礼提前购" 活动聚合酒水、食品、礼品等品类的热门大牌， 包括高端白酒、进口红酒、茶叶、大牌月饼礼盒、大闸蟹等均可享受分期购买优惠，满足不同圈层的送 礼需求，助力消费者传递节日心意；"国庆出游潮搭" 活动则聚焦秋装鞋服 ...

Economic Overview - The provincial economy has maintained a stable and positive trend in the first eight months, with steady industrial production, effective investment growth, and a robust consumer market [1][2] Industrial Production - The industrial added value of enterprises above designated size increased by 8.4% year-on-year in the first eight months [1] - The equipment manufacturing industry experienced significant growth, with an increase of 11.8% in added value, and specific sectors such as electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing saw a remarkable 41.8% increase [1] - Key products showed varied growth, including coal production up by 2.2%, natural gas production up by 3.4%, and automobile production up by 16.6%, with new energy vehicles increasing by 17.6% [1] Fixed Asset Investment - Fixed asset investment grew by 4.1% year-on-year, with industrial investment showing a rapid increase of 19.4% [1] - Manufacturing investment rose by 23.2%, and industrial technological transformation investment surged by 31% [1] - Private investment also performed well, increasing by 11%, which is 6.9 percentage points higher than the overall investment growth rate [1] Consumer Market - Retail sales of consumer goods in enterprises above designated size increased by 7.9% year-on-year [2] - The "old-for-new" consumption policy showed positive effects, with home appliances and audio-visual equipment retail sales rising by 33.7% [2] - Online retail remained active, with a 21.2% year-on-year increase in sales through public networks, accounting for 22.6% of total retail sales [2] Foreign Trade - The total import and export value reached 332.597 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.5% [2] - Exports amounted to 230.434 billion yuan, growing by 13.2%, while imports were 102.163 billion yuan, up by 4.8% [2] - The export of "new three samples" products, including lithium-ion batteries and electric vehicles, saw significant growth, with increases of 97.7% and 84.4% respectively [2]

Economic Performance Overview - In August, the industrial added value of large-scale enterprises increased by 5.2% year-on-year and 0.37% month-on-month [1] - The service production index rose by 5.6% year-on-year in August [1] - The total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 3.4% year-on-year and 0.17% month-on-month in August [1] - From January to August, fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 0.5% year-on-year, while excluding real estate development investment, it grew by 4.2% [1][4] Investment Trends - Manufacturing investment increased by 5.1% year-on-year from January to August, although the growth rate is declining [4] - Infrastructure investment (excluding power, heat, gas, and water production and supply) grew by 2.0%, down 1.2 percentage points from the previous period [4] - Real estate development investment decreased by 12.9% year-on-year, with the decline rate widening by 0.9 percentage points [4][5] Real Estate Market Dynamics - The real estate market is experiencing fluctuations but is moving towards stabilization, with a narrowing decline in sales and housing prices [5] - Recent adjustments in housing policies in some cities have shown positive effects, leading to improved market transactions [5] - The government is focusing on enhancing urban renewal and increasing the supply of high-quality housing to meet demand [5][6] Consumer Market Insights - The retail sales of consumer goods showed a year-on-year growth of 4.6% from January to August, with service retail sales increasing by 5.1% [8] - Key consumer goods categories, such as furniture and home appliances, saw significant sales growth in August, with increases of 18.6% and 14.3% respectively [8] - The film industry also experienced a surge, with box office revenue and attendance increasing by 48.6% and 66.9% year-on-year in August [8][9] Trade and Export Performance - In August, the total goods import and export volume increased by 3.5% year-on-year, with exports growing by 4.8% and imports by 1.7% [9] - Cumulatively, from January to August, exports rose by 6.9%, while imports fell by 1.2% [9] - Exports to the U.S. saw a significant decline of 32.9%, which was a major drag on overall export performance [9] Price Trends - The Producer Price Index (PPI) decreased by 2.9% year-on-year in August, but the decline rate narrowed by 0.7 percentage points compared to the previous month [9][10] - Factors contributing to the PPI changes include improved market competition, increased demand in emerging industries, and the effects of consumption-boosting policies [10]

Market Overview - A-share market trading activity has decreased, with a slight decline in transaction volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets, indicating that incremental capital has not yet formed a consistent expectation in the short term, leading to a wide fluctuation in the market [1][4] - The overall A-share market is experiencing significant fluctuations, with notable sector rotation. Benefiting from interest rate cut expectations and "anti-involution" policies, sectors such as electric power equipment and non-ferrous metals have seen substantial gains, while previously high-performing sectors like computers and communications have shown weakness [1] Economic Indicators - In August, China's exports increased by 4.4% year-on-year in USD terms, below the expected 5.9% and previous value of 7.2%. Imports grew by 1.3%, also below expectations [1] - The decline in exports to the US has intensified, with a drop of 33.1% in August, negatively impacting total exports by 5.1 percentage points, while exports to the EU and ASEAN exceeded previous values [1] Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) - In August, China's CPI growth remained flat month-on-month, with a year-on-year decrease to -0.4%. The PPI growth shifted from a decline to flat, with a significant narrowing of the year-on-year decline [2] - Prices of pork and eggs have shown lower-than-seasonal increases, while some food prices continue to decline, affecting non-food items [2] Infrastructure and Real Estate - High-frequency data for August indicates a slight increase in the year-on-year growth rate of petroleum asphalt and cement shipments. The National Development and Reform Commission has allocated 300 billion yuan for the third batch of "two heavy" construction projects, which will support infrastructure growth [3] - In the real estate sector, first-tier city housing prices have declined more than those in second and third-tier cities, with sales of commercial housing in 30 cities in August still needing improvement [3] Consumer Behavior - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods in August is expected to moderate. The previous year's "old-for-new" subsidy funds have been gradually distributed, but this year faces a high base environment and increased consumer sensitivity to price changes [3] Global Economic Context - Recent expectations for overseas interest rate cuts have risen, with the US adding only 22,000 non-farm jobs in August, below the expected 75,000 and previous 79,000. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3%, the highest since November 2021 [4] - Following the employment data release, the dollar index and US bond yields fell, while gold, US stocks, and copper prices surged. Market sentiment has shifted towards recession, with an increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting rates three times this year [4]