享用火鸡大餐、安排假期出游、"黑色星期五"购物狂欢……每年11月的第4个星期四是美国传统节日感 恩节，原本经典的节日安排，却在美国开启关税战以来变成了感恩"劫"。 白宫国家经济委员会主任凯文·哈西特此前提醒，感恩节是美国一年中经济最活跃的时期之一，此前政 府"停摆"后续影响造成假期期间的旅行延误、消费增长疲软等，或导致美国今年四季度GDP负增长。 每年感恩节后一天就是"黑色星期五"购物季，然而由于美国政府的关税政策，今年"黑五"，"价格刺 客"也将大肆出没，给计划买买买的美国人添点堵。 据在线借贷平台LendingTree预测，关税将使消费者和零售商的假期总成本增加406亿美元。其中，关税 带来的额外成本大部分将由消费者承担，预计高达286亿美元。 LendingTree首席消费者金融分析师马特·舒尔茨（Matt Schulz）表示，对于大多数美国人来说，假期每 人多花132美元是笔不小的开销，许多家庭或将减少送礼，或背负更多债务。 感恩节的"重头戏"之一，是一顿以烤火鸡为主菜的大餐，但今年感恩节大餐，让美国人直呼"吃不起"！ 据美国CBS新闻报道，在美国，一只15磅重的火鸡价格已涨价至31美元，同比增长25 ...

Group 1 - The recent performance of the US dollar remains weak, with the dollar index fluctuating around 99.50, reflecting market expectations for a potential interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve [1] - Market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the December Federal Reserve meeting have surged to over 87%, up from 39% a week prior, indicating a significant shift in sentiment [3] - Initial jobless claims in the US fell to 216,000 for the week ending November 22, a decrease of 6,000 from the previous week, outperforming market expectations [3] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) for September increased by 2.7% year-on-year, consistent with expectations, while the core PPI declined from 2.9% to 2.6%, slightly below market forecasts [3] - Retail sales in September grew by 0.2% month-on-month, a slowdown from the 0.6% increase in August, indicating a more cautious consumer spending attitude [3] - The consumer confidence index for November dropped by 6.8 points to 88.7, reflecting a notable decline in household sentiment [3] - Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller emphasized a focus on labor market performance and indicated that inflation is "not a major issue," suggesting an openness to rate cuts [3] Group 2 - In Australia, private capital expenditure rose by 6.4% quarter-on-quarter in Q3, significantly higher than the 0.2% growth in Q2 and above market expectations of 0.5% [4] - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) in Australia for October increased by 3.8% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations of 3.6% [4] - The preliminary manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for November in Australia was 51.6, up from 49.7, indicating expansion in the manufacturing sector [4] - The services PMI increased from 52.5 to 52.7, and the composite PMI rose from 52.1 to 52.6, suggesting ongoing economic activity expansion [4] - The Reserve Bank of Australia indicated a balanced policy stance in its November meeting minutes, suggesting that strong economic data could lead to an extended period of current interest rates [4]

每经AI快讯，11月28日，澳新银行新西兰11月消费者信心指数环比上升6.5%，升至98.4。 ...

Investment Chain - Prices of tin, silver, and gold have risen since November 2025. [1] - Fixed asset investment growth rate has decreased to -1.70% as of October 2025, with real estate development investment down by -14.70%. [1] - Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate is at 2.7%, while infrastructure investment growth rate is at 1.51%. [1] - Prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while power coal prices slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. [1] Consumption Chain - Consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. [2] - Nominal growth rate for October 2025 fell to 2.90%, with cumulative nominal growth rate down by 4.30%. [2] - Sales area of commercial housing saw a cumulative year-on-year decline of -7.63% in October 2025. [2] - Automobile sales growth rate decreased to 8.82% in October 2025, and home appliance retail sales fell by -10.25%. [2] Export Chain - Export growth rate to the US increased in October 2025, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. [3] - Cumulative export growth rates for products like agricultural goods, toys, furniture, and steel have decreased. [3] - The overall export growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports down by -9.10%. [3] Price Chain - Pork prices increased to 12.24 RMB/kg as of November 19, 2025, while oil prices decreased to 57.95 USD/barrel. [4] - Prices for cotton and white sugar have declined, while MDI prices showed mixed trends. [4] - New credit increased to 220 billion RMB in October 2025, with life insurance premium income growth rate down to 12.68%. [4]

Investment Chain - Since November, prices of tin, silver, and gold have increased. In October 2025, the cumulative year-on-year growth rate of fixed asset investment decreased to -1.70%, with real estate development investment declining by 14.70%. Manufacturing fixed asset investment growth rate fell to 2.7%, and infrastructure investment growth rate decreased to 1.51% [7][8] - In November 2025, prices of copper, aluminum, lead, zinc, and nickel have decreased, while the price of thermal coal slightly increased to 698 RMB/ton. The average price of ordinary cement has risen, and steel prices have decreased [7][8] Consumer Chain - The consumer confidence index rose to 89.60 in September 2025. In October 2025, the nominal year-on-year growth rate fell to 2.90%, with a cumulative nominal year-on-year growth rate decline of 4.30%. The sales area of commercial housing in October saw a year-on-year growth rate drop to -7.63% [8][9] - In October 2025, automobile sales decreased by 8.82% year-on-year, and home appliance retail sales fell by 10.25% year-on-year. In December 2024, tourism revenue in Beijing increased by 11.40% year-on-year, while in March 2024, tourism revenue in Hainan decreased by 20.03% [8][9] Export Chain - In October 2025, the year-on-year growth rate of exports to the United States increased, while exports to the EU, Japan, and ASEAN saw a decline. Cumulative year-on-year growth rates for refined oil, coke, and shipbuilding increased, while exports of agricultural products, toys, furniture, lighting, coal, steel, plastics, auto parts, and aluminum decreased [9][10] - The export amount year-on-year growth rate fell to 20.21% in October 2025, with textile exports decreasing by 9.10% and machinery exports declining by 1.10% [9][10] Price Chain - In November, pork prices decreased, and oil prices also saw a decline. As of November 25, 2025, WTI crude oil price fell to 57.95 USD/barrel. The price of PVC dropped to 4400 RMB/ton, while the price of pure MDI rose to 19350 RMB/ton and the price of polymer MDI decreased to 14550 RMB/ton [10][11]

每经AI快讯，11月27日消息，意大利11月Istat消费者信心指数为95，预期97.6，前值97.6。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The gold market is experiencing a short-term bullish trend driven by multiple favorable factors, but it is facing critical technical resistance levels. Group 1: Influencing Factors - The market has significantly increased the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December to approximately 85%, following dovish comments from several Fed officials [2] - U.S. retail sales data for September fell short of expectations, and the consumer confidence index declined, indicating potential economic cooling [2] - The U.S. dollar index has dropped to a one-week low, while the 10-year Treasury yield remains near a one-month low [3] Group 2: Technical Analysis - Gold prices are encountering trendline resistance around the $4173-$4175 range, leading to a consolidation phase after a recent spike in this area [4] Group 3: Trading Strategy - The current trading strategy leans towards a bearish outlook, with short positions recommended if prices rebound to the $4170-$4175 range, targeting $4150-$4130 with a stop loss of $10 [5] - If support is found in the $4130-$4140 range, a long position may be considered, targeting $4150-$4160 with a stop loss of $10 [5] - A strong breakdown below the $4130 support could lead to further declines towards $4110-$4100, while a strong breakout above $4175 could push prices towards $4185 or even $4200 [5] Group 4: Market Conditions - The Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. on November 27 will lead to a market closure, resulting in significantly reduced liquidity and potentially increased volatility, with major price movements expected primarily during the Asian and European trading sessions [6] Group 5: Long-term Outlook - For long-term investors, the bullish logic for gold remains intact, supported by the ongoing trend of global central bank gold purchases and the overarching direction of Fed rate cuts, suggesting a strategy of "buying on dips" [7]

每经AI快讯，11月27日，德国12月Gfk消费者信心指数为-23.2，预期-23.2，前值-24.1。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，美国上周初请失业金人数意外降至4月中旬以来最低水平，在经济不确定性持续的 背景下仍保持相对低位。 美国劳工部周三公布的数据显示，截至11月22日当周，初请失业金人数减少6000人，至21.6万人。而经 济学家的预期中值为22.5万人。续请失业金人数(衡量正在领取失业金人数的指标)则在前一周微升至196 万人。 周三公布的数据表明，尽管雇主已放缓新员工招聘步伐，但在很大程度上仍在保留现有员工。尽管近几 周包括Verizon(VZ.US)和亚马逊(AMZN.US)在内的大型企业宣布裁员的消息日渐增多，但实际裁员规模 尚未出现显著上升。 自9月以来，续请失业金人数总体呈上升趋势，目前仍接近疫情后劳动力市场复苏时期的水平。尽管初 请失业金人数保持低位，但已失业者寻找新工作的难度正在加大。 近期调查显示，美国人对劳动力市场的担忧情绪日益加剧。11月消费者信心指数创下七个月来最大跌 幅，部分原因是民众对就业前景的预期更为黯淡。 同样，哈里斯民意调查公司(Harris Poll)10月开展的一项调查显示，55%的在职美国人担心失业，近半数 受访者表示，若失去当前工作，他们认为需要四个月或更长时间才能找到 ...

近期，随着美联储内部分歧加大，12月降息的概率持续下降，黄金上冲至4250美元附近后持续回落。11月20日晚间公布的美国9 月非农意外大增11.9万人，远超预期的5万人，一定程度上增加了下个月不降息的可能性。 目前，美联储内部在降息议题上的分歧愈发明显。鸽派阵营的代表，如美联储理事米兰、沃勒和鲍曼等，认为为避免劳动力市 场进一步疲软，应继续降息；而鹰派代表施密德、柯林斯和穆萨莱姆等则担心通胀进一步上升，主张保持谨慎；鲍威尔、杰斐 逊、威廉姆斯等温和派则认为应保持耐心。 克利夫兰联储主席哈马克指出，当前通胀率高于美联储设定的2%目标，若过早降低利率，可能会延长高通胀期，并刺激金融市 场过度冒险。目前金融条件相对宽松，而政府停摆导致部分关键数据缺失，未来的不确定性增加。 根据芝商所"美联储观察"工具显示，12月降息25个基点的概率为39.6%，维持利率不变的概率为60.4%；到明年1月，累计降息25 个基点的概率为50.2%，维持利率不变的概率为39.7%，累计降息50个基点的概率为20.2%。 百利好特约智昇研究黄金高级分析师欧文认为，自8月底以来，黄金价格加速上涨超过1000美元，而自10月中下旬起出现明显回 ...