LendingTree的首席信贷分析师Matt Schulz表示："没有什么比食品杂货价格更能影响美国人对经济的看 法了。如果人们确信这些价格只会持续上涨，那么理所当然地，就会有更少的人认为自己家庭的财务状 况在一年后会变得更好。" AI播客：换个方式听新闻 下载mp3 音频由扣子空间生成 根据纽约联储周二发布的一项调查，由于预期通胀可能回升，美国人对自己的财务状况越来越感到担 忧。 这家地区联储的月度《消费者预期调查》发现，消费者预计未来一年的通胀将更高，并且更少人预计自 己家庭的财务状况在一年后会变得更好。 纽约联储的调查还发现，家庭支出增长预期也有所下降。 尽管许多美国人对物价上涨和美国总统特朗普的关税政策表示担忧，但很少有人真正改变自己的消费习 惯。专家表示，到目前为止，这正是帮助美国避免严重经济放缓的原因。 其他研究表明，美国人正感到越来越吃力，特别是高昂的食品成本，这使得他们在日常月份中更难支付 开销。根据最新的消费者价格指数，8月份的食品杂货价格同比上涨了2.7%，这是自2023年8月以来的 最快年度涨幅。 与此同时，纽约联储关于家庭债务的另一项研究显示，信用卡余额正在悄然攀升，这表明越来越多的 ...

据介绍，因两党在医保相关福利等方面的分歧，美国会参议院未能在政府资金耗尽前通过新的临时拨款 法案。美东时间10月1日零时起，美国联邦政府时隔近七年再次"停摆"。美国副总统万斯10月1日警告， 如果联邦政府"停摆"持续时间较长，可能会引发裁员。白宫发言人莱维特说，联邦政府裁员"很可能"发 生，且"很快"会发生。 环球网消息，美国"政治新闻网"10月1日援引其获得的一份白宫备忘录报道称，美国总统特朗普的经济 顾问警告称，若美国政府"停摆"时间延长，将引发严重经济后果。 据报道，白宫经济顾问委员会在一份备忘录中警告称，美国政府每"停摆"一周，美国国内生产总值 （GDP）就可能损失150亿美元。若"停摆"一个月，将导致额外4.3万人失业。该估算尚未计入190万名 被强制休假或无薪工作的联邦文职雇员的损失，其中80%的人员居住在华盛顿地区。 "政治新闻网"称，这份四页备忘录还估算，若政府"停摆"持续一个月，消费者支出将减少300亿美元， 其中一半源自对联邦雇员的直接影响，其余则来自对其他行业的溢出效应。该备忘录援引美国高盛集 团、费哲金融服务公司（Fiserv）以及美联储的分析得出了相关结论。 原标题：美媒：白宫经济顾 ...

Report Information - Report Title: Precious Metals Daily Review - Date: September 30, 2025 - Research Team: Macro Finance Team - Researchers: He Zhuoqiao (Macro Precious Metals), Huang Wenxin (Treasury Bonds and Shipping), Nie Jiayi (Stock Index) [2] 1. Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating information provided in the report 2. Core View - Gold prices have started a new upward trend, which may last until the spring and summer of 2026. Investors are advised to maintain a long - position mindset in precious metals trading, and short - hedgers can appropriately reduce their hedging ratios. Due to the Fed's potential interest rate cuts and geopolitical risks, both gold and silver are expected to rise, with silver potentially outperforming gold due to its high volatility. With the approaching of the National Day and Mid - Autumn Festival holidays and numerous key data events, the volatility of precious metals may increase, and investors are advised to reduce their positions [4][5] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Precious Metals Market Trends and Outlook 3.1.1 Intraday Market - The risk of the US government shutdown caused the US dollar index to decline for two consecutive days, falling below the 98 mark. News of potential US drone strikes in Venezuela increased risk - aversion demand. London gold broke through the $3,800 per ounce mark, and London silver reached $47.2 per ounce. Gold prices had a sideways consolidation from late April to August to digest high - valuation pressure. The Fed's interest - rate cut expectations have boosted gold prices since early September, starting a new upward trend. This week, attention should be paid to global September PMI, US September non - farm payrolls, and the progress of the US congressional game. With the approaching holidays, investors should reduce positions to avoid risks [4] 3.1.2 Medium - term Market - From late April to early August, London gold fluctuated widely between $3,100 - $3,500 per ounce to digest over - valuation. Since August, the US employment and inflation situation has supported the Fed's restart of the interest - rate cut process. Geopolitical risks also provided safe - haven demand for gold. From late August to early September, various factors drove the gold price to break through $3,500 per ounce. The new upward trend is expected to last until the spring and summer of 2026. Silver, with strong industrial attributes, will also rise with gold and may outperform gold in terms of gains [5] 3.2 Main Macroeconomic Events/Data - Trump announced new import tariffs on October 1, including a 100% tariff on patented drugs and a 25% tariff on heavy trucks, breaking the relatively calm trade situation and causing new uncertainties [17] - US consumer spending in August increased slightly more than expected, with a 0.6% increase. Personal income rose 0.4%, and the savings rate dropped to 4.6%. The PCE price index rose 0.3% month - on - month and 2.7% year - on - year, and the core PCE price index rose 0.2% month - on - month and 2.9% year - on - year [17] - Fed's regulatory vice - chair Bowman reiterated the need for decisive interest - rate cuts and supported balance - sheet reduction and adjustment of the standing repurchase mechanism. Richmond Fed President Barkin believes the risks of a significant increase in unemployment or inflation are limited [18] - OPEC+ may approve an increase in oil production of at least 137,000 barrels per day at its October 5 meeting, but the final decision is yet to be made [18]

Market Overview - International gold prices rose again on September 26, closing at $3780.42 per ounce after reaching a high of $3783.74 [1] - The SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold ETF, increased its holdings by 8.87 tons, bringing the total to 1005.72 tons [8] Economic Indicators - The U.S. core PCE price index for August recorded a month-on-month increase of 0.2%, matching market expectations, while the year-on-year rate remained at 2.9% [3] - The University of Michigan's consumer confidence index for September fell to 55.1, below the expected 55.4, indicating a decline in consumer sentiment due to concerns over high prices and the job market [4] Federal Reserve Insights - Federal Reserve Governor Bowman indicated that the neutral interest rate is expected to be in the range of 3%-4% and favors a gradual approach to rate adjustments [4] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in October is 10.7%, while the probability of a 25 basis point cut is 89.3% [8] Geopolitical Developments - Reports suggest that former President Trump is open to relaxing restrictions on Ukraine's use of U.S. long-range weapons against targets in Russia, although no specific commitments were made [6] - Hamas has not received new proposals from mediators regarding negotiations with Israel, following a recent assassination incident [7]

Core Insights - Consumer spending continues to support the U.S. economy, with personal consumption expenditures (PCE) showing steady growth despite rising tariffs and inflation pressures [1][3] Economic Indicators - The PCE index increased by 0.3% month-on-month in August, up from 0.2% in July, while the year-on-year increase rose to 2.7% from 2.6% [2] - Core PCE, excluding food and energy, remained stable with a month-on-month increase of 0.2% and a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - Consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of economic activity, grew by 0.6% in August, marking the third consecutive month of growth [2][3] Sector Performance - Service prices rose by 0.3%, driven by increases in air travel, hotel accommodations, financial services, and utilities, contributing to PCE inflation [2] - Spending in transportation and dining out has increased, indicating a robust consumer demand in the service sector [3] Income Growth - Personal income rose by 0.4% month-on-month in August, with wage growth outpacing inflation, enhancing purchasing power [3] GDP Growth - Strong consumer spending contributed to a 3.8% annualized growth rate in GDP for the second quarter, the fastest in nearly two years, with third-quarter GDP growth expectations around 2.5% [3] Monetary Policy Outlook - The latest data may bolster the Federal Reserve's confidence in further rate cuts, with a 90% probability of a rate cut in October [5] - The Fed's decision will depend on upcoming employment and consumer price reports, with inflation remaining a critical concern [5][6]

Group 1 - The latest inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve shows that consumer spending adjusted for inflation increased by 0.4% last month [1] - The core PCE price index, which excludes food and energy, rose by 0.2% from July, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [2] - The overall annual inflation rate slightly increased to 2.7% from 2.6% in July [2] Group 2 - Consumer spending growth of 0.7% reflects increased consumption in discretionary items such as furniture, clothing, and sporting goods, while service spending rose at a relatively moderate pace [5] - Despite evidence showing that tariffs have pushed up some prices and a cooling labor market, consumers, especially high-income groups, continue to spend [5] - The savings rate has dropped to 4.6%, the lowest this year, indicating potential concerns about future consumer spending sustainability [5] Group 3 - Following the report, U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average rising over 300 points [4] - Market expectations for a rate cut in October are strong, but enthusiasm for further action in December is weaker [5] - Analysts suggest that inflation is stable enough to withstand lower interest rates, predicting another rate cut by the Federal Reserve in October [6]

Core Viewpoint - The latest inflation data favored by the Federal Reserve shows a slight increase in overall inflation, with core PCE remaining stable, indicating a mixed economic outlook and potential challenges for future monetary policy [3][4]. Economic Indicators - Adjusted for inflation, consumer spending increased by 0.4% last month [2]. - The core PCE price index rose by 0.2% from July, maintaining a year-on-year increase of 2.9% [3]. - Overall annual inflation rate rose slightly from 2.6% in July [4]. Consumer Behavior - Consumer spending on goods grew by 0.7%, driven by increases in discretionary items like furniture and clothing [7]. - Retail sales in August rose for the third consecutive month, partly due to back-to-school shopping [7]. - Despite strong consumer spending, there are concerns about the sustainability of this momentum given the softening labor market and stagnant real disposable income [7]. Federal Reserve's Stance - Some Federal Reserve officials are hesitant about further rate cuts due to inflation remaining above the 2% target [4]. - The market shows strong bets on a rate cut in October, but less enthusiasm for further action in December [7]. - The recent rate cut of 25 basis points brought the target range for the federal funds rate to 4%-4.25% [7][10]. Market Reaction - Following the report, U.S. stock indices opened higher, with the Dow Jones rising over 300 points, and international gold prices also saw a short-term increase [5].

Core Viewpoint - The PCE report indicates strong consumer spending growth, exceeding expectations, which aligns with the recently revised GDP report showing increased consumer expenditure [1] Economic Indicators - Both overall and core inflation data met expectations, providing reassurance as these are key indicators closely monitored by the Federal Reserve [1] - The rise in consumer spending, coupled with inflation data meeting expectations, suggests a stable economic environment [1] Market Reactions - Recent stock market volatility is partly attributed to strong economic growth, raising concerns that this may limit future interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve [1] - The expectation of interest rate cuts has been a significant factor in the market rebound since April 8 [1]

Core Viewpoint - The recent data from the US indicates that the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation measure remains above the target, posing challenges for its decision-making amid a weakening labor market [1] Economic Indicators - In August, consumer prices increased by 0.3% month-on-month, leading to a year-on-year PCE inflation rate of 2.7%, up from 2.6% in the previous month [1] - The core inflation measure remains steady at 2.9%, suggesting persistent inflationary pressures [1] Consumer Spending - Consumer spending, a key pillar of the economy, showed resilience in August with a growth rate of 0.6%, surpassing July's growth of 0.5% [1]

Core Viewpoint - Despite the pressure faced by low-income groups, consumer spending remains healthy according to Goldman Sachs' president [1] Group 1 - The low-income demographic is experiencing certain financial pressures [1] - Overall consumer spending trends indicate resilience and stability in the market [1]