2026 年 1 月 12 日 招银国际环球市场 | 宏观研究 | 宏观视角 美国经济 Economic Perspectives - 就业走弱 就业走弱 美国 12 月新增非农就业低于预期，10 月和 11 月数据下修，显示就业市场走 弱。新增就业主要集中在酒店休闲和教育医疗等服务行业，建筑和制造业就 业减少。DOGE 影响告一段落，联邦政府就业首次连续回升。12 月失业率降 至 4.4%，11月失业率被下修至 4.54%，因为劳动参与率下降和劳工供应减少 抵消劳工需求走弱。市场对年内可能降息 50 个基点的预期变化不大。我们预 计美联储全年仅在 6 月降息一次 25 个基点，很大程度作为新任主席上任后的 政治表态。上半年美国经济可能处于金发姑娘状态，减税政策提振经济增 长，油价和房租通胀回落抵消商品通胀反弹，美元流动性保持宽松状态，风 险资产可能走高。下半年美国经济可能呈现滞涨趋势，经济增速放缓，而通 胀止跌回升，美元流动性收紧预期升温，风险资产可能回调。 刘泽晖 (852) 3761 8957 frankliu@cmbi.com.hk 叶丙南, Ph.D (852) 3761 8967 yebingna ...

白银市场研判 20260109 摘要 白银价格在 2025 年末创历史新高，主要受特朗普政府政策、美联储预 期调整及国内光伏组件价格上涨等多重因素驱动，市场对滞涨的担忧加 剧。 未来白银价格受利率、通胀、避险和投机四大因素驱动，美联储降息预 期升温，日本央行政策调整，以及美国货币政策前景不明朗，均增加白 银吸引力。 全球老龄化和逆全球化趋势削弱了对美国国债的需求，各国央行可能重 启量化宽松，使得贵金属成为避险首选，投资者倾向于持有实物资产以 应对通胀。 白银具备稀缺性和保值功能，在主权信用货币价值萎缩背景下，作为投 资品种具有长期优势，即使在流动性危机中也能迅速修复跌幅。 2025 年全球白银供应量预计小幅增长，但仍低于 2016 年峰值，再生 银产量受益于环保政策和价格上涨而增加，但光伏行业需求因成本压力 而萎缩。 Q&A 2025 年白银市场的整体表现如何？主要驱动因素是什么？ 2025 年白银市场表现异常强劲，内盘全年涨幅超过 160%。前五个月价格基 本维持在 24 年以来的区间横盘，主升浪从 6 月份开始，尤其是 7-9 月份海外 市场供应极度短缺，导致价格不断加速上涨，最终在 12 月 29 日创 ...

股指早报 大盘十三连阳，春季躁动 2026 年 1 月 7 日 股指期货早报 2026.1.7 报告摘要： 海外方面，美 12 月标普全球服务业 PMI 录得 52.5，低于预期和 前值 52.9，数据指向美经济的边际回落。从隔夜市场走势来看，与前 一交易日有所变化，美元指数上涨，美债收益率短端长端均有所回升， 原油回落，但美股、黄金和铜等有色类大宗商品上涨，纳斯达克中国 金龙指数微跌，美股波动率指数小幅上涨，离岸人民币汇率小幅升值。 隔夜市场不再延续降息逻辑，但风险和滞涨概念延续。另外 1 月 6 日 美国最高法院宣布，将在本周五就关税问题作出裁决。关注美关税方 面情况。 国内盘面上看，周二大盘高开高走上涨 1.5%，深成指上涨 1.4%， 创业板指上涨 0.75%，市场延续大反弹走势。券商上涨带动情绪，题 材则保持活跃。央行工作会议的召开意味降息降准的临近，这也是金 融板块大涨的主因。板块上看，有色、非银金融、化工、军工、石油 石化涨幅居前，仅通信小幅下跌。全市场 4101 只个股上涨，1218 只 个股下跌。消息上看，九部门发文实施绿色消费推进行动。 整体上看，隔夜外围基本延续美股和商品齐涨的走势，地缘 ...

报告 中国权益资产有望启动春季行情 2025年12月26日 证监许可【2011】1288号 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 高盛判断全球股市步入牛市"乐观阶段" ，2026年盈利将继续支撑行情，若包含股息，总回报率将达到15%。 美联储12月降息25个基点，每月购买400亿美元短债，美联储资产负债表重新开启扩张。特朗普明确表态，下一 任美联储主席必须是相信"大幅降息"的人选。高盛分析师警告，当前拉斯维加斯博彩收入下滑的消费趋势，与 2008年金融危机前的早期预警信号高度相似。美国发布新版《国家安全战略》，放弃全球霸权，将调整与中国的 经济关系，重振美国经济自主地位。美联储褐皮书显示，消费者K型分化加剧，高收入消费者支出保持韧性，但 中低收入家庭正"勒紧裤腰带"。日本央行加息25个基点，日本10年期国债收益率升至2.0%。美国失业率上升至 4.6%，经济学家担忧美国企业的大规模裁员是经济预警信号 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全 ...

证监许可【2011】1288号 更多精彩内容 请关注 格林大华期货 官方微信 研究员：于军礼 联系邮箱：yujunli@greendh.com 期货从业资格证号：F0247894 期货交易咨询号：Z0000112 全球经济展望 【全球经济展望】 报告 铂钯开启货币化 2025年12月19日 美联储降息25个基点，每月购买400亿美元短债，美联储资产负债表重新开启扩张。特朗普明确表态，下一 任美联储主席必须是相信"大幅降息"的人选。债券期权市场的仓位正在发生变化，部分交易员开始布局，押注 市场情绪可能转向预期第一季度就会降息。高盛分析师警告，当前拉斯维加斯博彩收入下滑的消费趋势，与2008 年金融危机前的早期预警信号高度相似。日本央行加息25个基点，日本10年期国债收益率升至2.0%。英伟达CEO 黄仁勋称：中国将赢得人工智能竞赛，他将中国的潜在胜利归功于更有利的监管环境和更低的能源成本。摩根大 通策略师团队认为，未来五年AI数据中心的建设热潮至少需要5万亿美元。美国失业率上升至4.6%，经济学家担 忧美国企业的大规模裁员是经济预警信号。 美国回归门罗主义，在全球收缩，将对全球经济、美债、美股、美元、贵金属、工 ...

Market Overview - A-shares showed a rebound after hitting a low, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3889.35 points, up 0.41%, and the Shenzhen Component Index rising by 0.84% [1][15] - The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached approximately 2.1 trillion, an increase of over 200 billion from the previous day, indicating a recovery in trading sentiment [1][15] - The semiconductor equipment and electric grid sectors led the gains, while sectors like innovative pharmaceuticals, chemicals, and coal showed weaker performance [1][15] Economic Policy Insights - The Central Economic Work Conference held on December 10-11 addressed various topics including domestic demand, innovation, anti-involution, and opening up to the outside world [2][16] - The "anti-involution + technological innovation" sectors are expected to benefit from policy support and logical backing, potentially outperforming in the second phase of the bull market [2][16] - The conference emphasized the importance of domestic demand and the need to eliminate unreasonable restrictions in the consumption sector to unleash service consumption potential [2][16] Investment Strategy - The market is expected to continue its upward potential, supported by anticipated incremental policies aimed at boosting consumption, industrial investment, and technological innovation [3][18] - The current market fluctuations are seen as a rebalancing of funds between short-term data and long-term trends, with expectations of a recovery in corporate profits and economic signals [3][18] - A flexible investment strategy combining core positions with satellite rotation is recommended, focusing on ETFs that capture long-term investment opportunities in the Chinese economy [6][20] Sector Performance - The securities sector is experiencing optimism due to the potential for mergers and acquisitions among major brokerages, which could enhance profitability and market expectations [7][22] - The approval of licenses for stablecoin trading by brokerages opens new business opportunities, potentially increasing revenue from transaction fees and attracting new clients [8][23] - The performance of the securities sector is closely tied to market activity, with increased trading volumes likely to boost brokerage revenues across various business lines [7][22] Gold Market Dynamics - The gold market is supported by ongoing geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, with gold being favored as a "store of value" amid inflation and stagnation concerns in the U.S. economy [11][25] - The recent approval of stablecoin trading licenses is expected to create new growth avenues for brokerages, enhancing their performance and market valuation [8][23] - Investors are advised to monitor gold ETFs as they align with the long-term bullish outlook for gold prices, driven by systemic risks and economic conditions [12][26]

12月11号凌晨，美国再次启动了降息周期，靴子落地。 为什么美联储12月份会再次降息？ 有关12月份是否降息，市场一直有争议。 之前都在传美联储通胀太高，一直在2.5%-3%之间徘徊，这个数是告诉所有人，美国不具备降息条件。 但是现在看11月美国非农数据大幅跑输预期！ 决定美联储是否降息的主要是两大指标：第一是就业，第二是通胀，这是基本金融常识。 现在美国人就业数据已经出现恶化，急需要降息来刺激就业。 所以美国人已经扛不住了，也不管通胀多少了，通胀高，就业数据又不好，美国人很可能接下来存在一个巨大的风险，这个风险，叫做滞涨。 没错，美国接下来的几年存在滞涨风险。 过去美国人一直都在死扛不降息，而中国跟美国再降息这个政策上一直在比耐力，比谁先扛不住先降。 大家不要以为美联储降息是主动的，美国为了压制中国的发展，内心是一万个不愿意降息的。 原本预期增加7000个岗位，实际却减少3.2万个岗位，创两年半来最大降幅，2025年是美国十多年来招聘最弱的一年。 说明美国的就业经济没预期的那么好。 因为一旦降息，会对美国产生两个负面影响： 第一，会影响美国的全球金融的霸权地位，一旦美元开始走弱势必就会影响全世界的资金持有美 ...

Market Overview - The A-share market showed weakness today, influenced by a drop of over 2% in the Nasdaq, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3990.49 points, down 0.97% [1] - The Shenzhen Component fell by 1.93%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 2.82%, with more than 3300 stocks declining [1] - Trading volume in both markets was below 2 trillion yuan, indicating a lack of activity [1] Sector Performance - Only sectors such as oil and petrochemicals, real estate, banking, and pharmaceuticals showed resilience, while other sectors, particularly AI, communications, and chips, experienced significant declines [1] - The recent fluctuations in the global market have led to a cautious sentiment among domestic investors, raising concerns about whether A-shares will follow the downward trend of overseas markets [1][2] Economic Indicators - Key credit indicators like social financing have shown mediocre performance, indicating a lag in the recovery of confidence in the real economy [5] - In October, new RMB loans amounted to 220 billion yuan, a decrease of 280 billion yuan year-on-year, while social financing increased by 815 billion yuan, down 597 billion yuan year-on-year [5] Investment Sentiment - The current market sentiment is influenced by short-term risk preferences and trading emotions, with a belief that domestic market logic will eventually prevail [2][4] - The ongoing economic stabilization and supportive policies are expected to provide a foundation for valuation levels, suggesting that recent pullbacks could present buying opportunities [4] AI and Innovation Sector - The AI sector faces uncertainties regarding revenue contributions and high capital expenditures, with many companies still in the investment phase and struggling to achieve stable profitability [6] - The introduction of AI in drug discovery and development is seen as a significant opportunity, with potential for increased efficiency and reduced costs in the pharmaceutical industry [12][13] Gold Market - The gold market has shown strong performance compared to equity markets, with recent geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties driving demand for gold as a safe-haven asset [15][16] - The long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to systemic risks, including inflation and geopolitical tensions, which are expected to support gold prices [16]

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the narrowing decline in the Producer Price Index (PPI) suggest potential inflation, driven by rising global commodity prices and the effects of loose monetary and fiscal policies [1][2]. Economic Indicators - October CPI rose by 0.2% year-on-year, while core CPI, excluding food and energy, increased by 1.2% [1]. - The total import and export value in October was $520.63 billion, with exports at $305.35 billion (down 1.1% year-on-year) and imports at $215.28 billion (up 1.0% year-on-year) [6]. Investment Trends - National fixed asset investment decreased by 0.5% in the first three quarters, with private investment down by 3.1% [4]. - Investment in high-tech sectors has seen significant growth, exceeding 20%, while traditional sectors like real estate are struggling [6][7]. Consumer Behavior - Despite loose monetary policies, consumer borrowing is declining as individuals focus on deleveraging, impacting consumption [4]. - The introduction of new tax policies for e-commerce is expected to reduce disposable income for many, further constraining consumer spending [11][14]. Employment and Production - The potential for inflation may not translate into increased demand, as companies may reduce production in response to rising costs, leading to layoffs and decreased consumer spending [9][10]. - The shift towards high-tech investments may not provide immediate employment solutions for the broader workforce, which still relies heavily on traditional industries [7]. Trade Dynamics - The tightening of tax regulations is anticipated to negatively impact export activities, with businesses facing increased tax burdens and reduced profit margins [11][13][14]. - The overall trade environment is showing signs of contraction, with exports beginning to decline significantly from October onwards [5][13].

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight decline influenced by weak performance in U.S. tech stocks, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3954.79 points, down 0.81% [1] - The market saw a total of 3759 stocks rise and 1548 stocks fall, with trading volume around 2.35 trillion, indicating a gradual recovery in market activity [1] - The market initially surged past the 4000-point mark but faced selling pressure, leading to a retreat [2] Sector Performance - Innovative drugs, software, and media sectors led the gains, while previously strong sectors like telecommunications, semiconductor equipment, and AI-related concepts faced corrections [1] - The biotech sector showed strong performance, with the Kweichow Moutai Innovation Drug ETF rising over 7% [9] Investment Strategy - Investors are advised to adopt a "rational offensive" strategy, focusing on low-position stocks with high elasticity for potential gains [2][4] - The current market environment suggests that while short-term pressure at the 4000-point level remains, long-term bullish sentiment is building due to the accumulation of wealth effects [4] Industry Insights - The innovative drug sector is entering a critical phase of performance realization, with significant funding expected to accelerate commercialization processes [11] - AI technology is increasingly being integrated into drug development, enhancing efficiency and reducing costs in the early stages of research [12] Economic Context - The U.S. economic outlook remains uncertain, with concerns over "stagflation" and regional banking risks impacting market sentiment [13] - Geopolitical tensions in regions like the Middle East and Ukraine are contributing to heightened market volatility and investor caution [14] Long-term Outlook - The long-term bullish outlook for A-shares is supported by the relative strength of China's comprehensive national power compared to the U.S. [4] - The potential for further valuation increases in the innovative drug sector is anticipated as industry policies evolve and AI capabilities expand [13]