以下文章来源于快刀财经 ，作者快刀财经编辑部 快刀财经 . 欢迎关注这个洞察商业真相的公号。快刀财经，商业快媒体、思维孵化器、价值试验场和洗欲中心。 新年伊始，万象更新，很多企业却没能挺到2026年的钟声敲响。 近日，东莞制造业再传重磅消息，有着26年历史、巅峰时超万名员工的"长荣东莞玩具厂"，因订单暴跌四 成，经营陷入绝境而宣布结业。其母公司华盛玩具董事会最终确定停产清算方案，这家制造业龙头标杆至 此谢幕，留下无数唏嘘。 临订单萎缩与成本高企的双重绞杀。 值得注意的是，市场并未消失，只是需求发生了转变。据海关统计，2025年前11个月，我国玩具出口额达 600.4亿美元，同比增长18%。在前三季度，我国出口节日用品、玩偶、动物造型玩具超过500亿元，销往全 球200多个国家和地区。 一些同样从代工厂起家的企业已成功转型。如创办于2014年的"拼酷"通过聚焦中国传统文化元素与现代设计 相融合的"国风+潮玩"赛道，成功实现了从代工生产向自主品牌迈进的"质变"，2024年拼酷海外自营电商营 业额同比增长50%。 长荣玩具厂的倒下，更像是时代"新陈代谢"的缩影——中国传统制造产业正在告别"大而不强"的过去， 向"又 ...

Core Insights - The year 2025 marks a significant "paradigm shift" in the global business landscape, transitioning from visions of AI, consumption, and geopolitics into practical industrial applications [1][40]. Group 1: AI and Technology Developments - DeepSeek's emergence and Manus's $1 billion sale to Meta signify a pivotal moment in China's AI technology sector, reducing reliance on foreign models and initiating a trend towards open-source large models [2][41]. - The rapid competition in the AI field has led to numerous emerging competitors for DeepSeek, including Doubao, Qianwen, Lingguang, and Antifufu, alongside established players like Baidu and Kimi [4][43]. - AI models have evolved from mere chat tools to autonomous decision-making agents, with companies shifting from "buying models" to "nurturing agents" for task execution [6][45]. Group 2: Economic and Market Trends - The low-altitude economy in China is projected to exceed 1.5 trillion yuan, with cities like Shenzhen and Guangzhou pioneering eVTOL urban routes and drone deliveries becoming standard for logistics giants [8][46]. - The year 2025 is recognized as the year of humanoid robots entering factories, with significant orders surpassing 10,000 units, indicating a shift from experimental technology to industrial-grade products [10][49]. - Global trade dynamics are shifting, with the normalization of tariff battles between the US and Europe against Chinese electric vehicles and solar industries, prompting a "global localization" strategy among Chinese firms [12][51]. - The introduction of solid-state batteries in China, including the first national standards, addresses electric vehicle charging anxieties and strengthens China's position in the global renewable energy value chain [13][52]. Group 3: Consumer Behavior and Cultural Shifts - The establishment of the Hainan Free Trade Port marks a critical step in China's institutional openness, attracting global capital and talent [15][54]. - The rise of the "silver economy" in response to China's aging population is expected to create a trillion-yuan market for elder care products and services [28][67]. - The backlash against high-priced pre-made dishes, highlighted by public figures like Luo Yonghao, reflects a growing consumer demand for transparency and value, signaling the end of the "arrogant brand era" [24][63]. - The decline of the Labubu toy series from a speculative investment to a more accessible product illustrates a shift in consumer sentiment towards value-driven purchases [29][72]. Group 4: Capital and Investment Trends - The focus of global capital is shifting from generic large models to investments in "sovereign AI" infrastructure, with data centers becoming strategic national assets [16][57]. - Starbucks' decision to sell part of its Chinese operations to local investors signifies the end of the era where foreign brands dominated the market solely through globalization [34][73].

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Core Insights - The "2025 New Consumption Conference" held on December 17, organized by 21st Century Business Herald, gathered over a hundred guests from various sectors including consumer brands, investment institutions, and brokers to discuss rapid growth, innovation, and strategies in the consumer industry [1] Group 1: Industry Trends - The conference theme was "Cross-Border Growth and Integrated Innovation," focusing on industry trends, business models, products and services, and growth logic [1] - The consumer industry is undergoing profound changes, with new forces emerging for growth, driven by factors such as the IP economy and the rise of the Z generation's purchasing power [1] - AI is beginning to permeate the fabric of consumption and e-commerce, indicating a technological shift in the industry [1] - The competition among major platforms in the takeaway market is creating a resonance between online and offline channels [1] - Chinese consumer brands are increasingly entering global markets, while niche sectors like pet and technology consumption are experiencing robust growth [1] Group 2: Awarded Excellent Cases - Categories for awarded excellent cases include Annual Brand Case, Industry Innovation Case, Growth Enterprise Case, Consumption Technology Case, Value Investment Institution Case, and Outstanding Service Enterprise Case [1] - Notable awarded companies in the Consumption Technology category include Honor with its Magic8 series, Kuaishou Technology with its e-commerce initiatives, and MOVA with its V60 MOBIUS robot vacuum [4] - Growth Enterprise cases feature companies like Tasting, Yuanji Yunjiao, and Fengji Food Group, showcasing innovative strategies and market leadership [5] - Outstanding Service Enterprise cases include companies like Lingzhu and Jitu Express, highlighting advancements in service delivery [6] - Value Investment Institutions recognized include Sequoia China, Bailian Zhigao, and others, reflecting strong investment interest in the consumer sector [8]

过去一年，消费行业可谓是精彩纷呈：IP、潮玩经济带动了Z时代年轻人的消费力；AI开始全面渗透消费与电商的肌理；众多中国消费品牌奔赴资本市场， 还踏上了全球出海的"远征"...... 作为大消费行业的年度总结，今年的21世纪经济报道"新消费大会"于12月17日在商业魔都——上海召开。本次会议，我们将与数百名消费行业人士和资本机 构代表，围绕"跨界增长融合创新"的主题，展开分享与讨论。 新消费品牌最重要的特质是什么？新消费行业未来一年有什么趋势？走，去跟嘉宾们做一个快问快答吧！ 21世纪经济报道记者刘婧汐上海报道 ...

大会还将现场揭晓"2025新消费大会"的典型案例，邀您一起与我们共同见证消费行业坚韧生长的创新力 量！ 大消费行业"年度风向标"级别的会议——21世纪经济报道新消费大会将于12月17日于上海建滔诺富特酒 店落地！ 议程及嘉宾全阵容现已揭晓，扫码即可获取大会电子票！ 作为全球经济增长的重要动力，消费行业正经历更深刻的变革，也涌现了更多破圈生长的新力量。 2025年消费行业精彩纷呈：IP、潮玩经济带动了Z时代年轻人的消费力；AI开始渗透消费与电商的肌 理；大平台的外卖大战引发线上线下共振；众多消费品牌奔赴资本市场；中国消费品牌纷纷踏上了全球 市场的"远征"；宠物、科技消费等细分领域开始茁壮成长...... （原标题：倒计时1天！21世纪经济报道"新消费大会"嘉宾全阵容来袭！） 21世纪经济报道深度聚焦大消费赛道，本次"2025新消费大会"已邀请到伊利、阿迪达斯、瑞幸咖啡、欧 莱雅中国、海信集团、五粮液、美团、快手、荣耀、阿里云、老板电器等众多消费品牌与平台，红杉中 国、百联挚高、黑蚁资本、启承资本、利弗莫尔证券等机构、券商的代表。 21世纪经济报道记者 刘婧汐 在"新消费大会"上，我们将与在场嘉宾与数百名行业人士 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese潮玩 (trendy toy) market is rapidly growing, projected to reach 100 billion yuan by 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 26% to 727 billion yuan in 2024, driven by the emotional consumption needs of Generation Z [1][3][15] -潮玩 differs significantly from traditional toys in terms of target audience, functionality, and value, focusing on artistic design and collectibility, primarily appealing to consumers aged 14 and above [1][19][24] Market Overview - The潮玩 market is characterized by a strong presence of brands like泡泡玛特, which leads the industry with its original IPs such as Labubu and Molly, leveraging social media for viral marketing and community engagement [2][3] - The潮玩 industry is integrating new technologies like XR, AI, and NFC to create interactive products, expanding the functionality and user engagement of潮玩 [2] Industry Structure - The潮玩 industry has established a complete value chain from IP rights holders to manufacturers and retailers, with IP being a core driver of consumer demand [2][3] - Notable IPs such as Disney and Pokémon continue to empower潮玩 products through licensing agreements, while domestic IPs like米哈游 are also emerging [2] Segment Analysis - Various潮玩 segments, including blind boxes, cards, and figurines, are experiencing rapid growth, with the "谷子经济" (secondary market) reaching a market size of 168.9 billion yuan in 2024, primarily targeting the post-2000 generation [2][3] International Expansion - Chinese潮玩 brands are expanding into Southeast Asia and North America, with泡泡玛特's overseas revenue growing by 375.2% year-on-year in 2024, indicating increasing global competitiveness [3] Future Outlook - The潮玩 economy reflects a shift in the Chinese toy industry from manufacturing to creativity, with expectations for higher quality growth as technology integration and IP content continue to evolve [3]

Core Insights - The rise of Generation Z as a key consumer group has transformed blind box toys from niche collectibles into a global "hard currency" for social interaction and self-expression [1] - The launch of the "Singularity BOX" blind box machine T48 by Heng Life aims to capture the value preferences of young consumers and innovate retail experiences and business models [1][2] Industry Overview - The Chinese blind box market is projected to reach a market size of 92.6 billion yuan by 2025, with a sustained high growth rate from 2015 to 2025 [2] - The broader pan-entertainment product market in China is expected to reach 597.7 billion yuan in 2024, with the toy market accounting for 65% of this, indicating strong support for the blind box economy [2] - The blind box industry has developed a multi-channel sales approach, including physical stores, robot shops, and online platforms, with robot shops growing rapidly at an annual rate of 30% [2] Company Strategy - Heng Life's "Singularity BOX" targets the booming blind box market by leveraging AI robot shop capabilities to reach diverse consumer spaces such as office buildings and communities [3] - The company has created an ecosystem that combines top IPs, smart robot shops, and comprehensive entrepreneurial support, aiming to empower entrepreneurs in the blind box sector [3][4] Product Features - The T48 blind box machine offers a "zero down payment, installment" policy, significantly lowering the entry barrier for aspiring entrepreneurs [4] - The machine requires only 1 square meter of space, allowing for flexible placement in high-traffic areas and maximizing profitability [4] - The T48 has secured partnerships with over 100 popular global IPs, enhancing product appeal and customer retention [4] - It operates 24/7 autonomously, reducing operational costs and management burdens for entrepreneurs [4] Aesthetic Appeal - The T48 features three distinct color designs—Sakura Pink, Tiffany Blue, and Hermes Orange—catering to the aesthetic preferences of Generation Z [6][7] - These color choices not only enhance the visual appeal but also transform the blind box machine into a mobile visual medium for brand promotion [7] Technological Innovation - The T48 blind box machine employs a "standard 8 rows and 6 columns" layout with 48 customizable slots, allowing for flexible product offerings [8] - It features a capacitive touchscreen for smooth user interaction and supports mobile payment options, streamlining the purchasing process [8] - The machine is designed for low power consumption and safety, ensuring reliable operation in various environments [8] Market Positioning - The introduction of the T48 blind box machine represents a significant shift in traditional retail boundaries and entrepreneurial models, responding to new consumer trends [9] - The machine was well-received at the 2025 World Internet Conference, highlighting its innovative design and AI capabilities [9][11]

Group 1 - The rapid development of the trendy toy economy has led to increased consumer complaints regarding product quality and after-sales service [1] - In the third quarter of 2025, consumer associations in China received 536,761 complaints, a year-on-year increase of 7.9%, resolving 274,427 cases and recovering economic losses of 236 million RMB [1] - Issues with refund policies on trendy toy platforms have been highlighted, where consumers face refusals for refunds even when products have not been shipped or are defective [1] Group 2 - The rise of smart driving technology has become a competitive focus for automotive manufacturers, but there are concerns about the limitations and risks associated with these features [2] - Complaints regarding exaggerated performance claims by some automotive manufacturers and lack of transparency in driving data have been reported [2] - Other complaint hotspots include deceptive marketing in weight loss products, frequent disputes in pet consumption, ongoing issues with automatic renewals, and a surge in complaints related to power bank returns [2]

Core Insights - The rapid growth of the潮玩 (trendy toy) economy has led to significant consumer complaints regarding product quality and after-sales service [1][2] Group 1: Consumer Complaints - There is a high incidence of product quality issues, with consumers reporting defects such as paint peeling, breakage, and missing parts in trendy toys purchased online [1][2] - Refund and return processes are problematic, with platforms often denying refund requests even when products are not shipped or are found to be defective upon receipt [1][2] - After-sales service is lacking, with consumers experiencing long wait times for customer support and unresolved complaints despite multiple attempts to contact the service [1][2] Group 2: Industry Responsibility - The 中消协 (China Consumer Association) emphasizes the need for a fair and orderly market environment to support the growth of the潮玩 industry, urging operators to prioritize consumer rights [2] - Innovative business models in the潮玩 sector should not be used as an excuse to evade legal responsibilities, and platforms must adhere to the Electronic Commerce Law of the People's Republic of China to ensure transparency and fairness in transactions [2] Group 3: Other Consumer Complaint Trends - Other notable complaint trends include issues with weight loss products, frequent disputes in pet consumption, shortcomings in travel platform services, persistent problems with automatic renewals, limitations in smart driving technology, increased complaints about charging services, and insurance marketing practices needing regulation [3]