南华期货烧碱产业周报 ——现实继续不及预期 寿佳露（投资咨询资格证号：Z0020569） 交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1290号 2025年11月2日 第一章 核心矛盾及策略建议 1.1 核心矛盾 当下现货端-非铝没有明显的补库行为，不及预期，现货偏弱，投机需求未起；其次，随着检修恢复，供应压 力回升；液氯价格强势，削弱了成本支撑 ∗ 近端交易逻辑 1、现货整体偏弱，当下非铝补库不及预期；氧化铝承压，供应局部开始调整，开工略有下滑迹象，或影响烧 碱需求预期 2、氯碱整体维持中高利润，液氯近期强势，削弱成本支撑；产量回升，供应压力持续 * 远端交易预期 高利润限制价格高度；中长期投产压力继续，下游氧化铝投产的兑现程度以及时间或有分歧，影响阶段性补 库节奏。 液碱周度厂内库存季节性 万吨 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 50 60 source： 南华研究 01/01 02/01 03/01 04/01 05/01 06/01 07/01 08/01 09/01 10/01 11/01 12/01 10 20 30 40 . 烧碱01合约基差季节性（山东） source： wind,南 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment view on the caustic soda industry is "oscillating", indicating that the short - term market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly fluctuate [3]. 2. Report's Core View - The spot price of caustic soda is stable with a slight increase, while the futures price is continuously falling. Supply, demand, and macro - policies are neutral; inventory is on the high side; profit and valuation are on the low side; and the basis is neutral [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: This week, maintenance decreased and production increased. The weekly domestic caustic soda production rose by 26,000 tons to 830,000 tons. The average capacity utilization rate of sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more of caustic soda was 81.4%, a 2.6% week - on - week decrease. Loads in various regions declined [3]. - **Demand**: Alumina production declined, non - aluminum demand was weak. The capacity utilization rate of the viscose staple fiber industry decreased to 88.61%, a 1.02% week - on - week decrease. The comprehensive startup rate in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased by 0.63% compared to before the holiday. The monthly startup rate of lithium hydroxide in June 2025 was about 49.27%, and the overall production was basically flat [3]. - **Inventory**: Recently, the shipment pressure increased, and caustic soda inventory accumulated. The factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with 200,000 tons or more was 403,300 tons (wet tons), a 4.25% week - on - week decrease and a 13.83% year - on - year increase. The national liquid caustic soda sample enterprise storage capacity ratio was 23.09%, a 0.33% week - on - week decrease [3]. - **Basis**: The current basis of the main contract is around 93, and the futures price is at a discount [3]. - **Profit**: The average weekly profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises was 337 yuan/ton, a 16% increase from last week. The overall chlor - alkali profit increased this week [3]. - **Valuation**: The spot price is neutral, the absolute futures price is low, and the near - month contract is at a discount [3]. - **Macro - policy**: The anti - involution sentiment in the energy and chemical sector has subsided, and the futures market trades based on fundamentals [3]. - **Investment View**: The short - term futures market has no obvious driving force and is expected to mainly oscillate [3]. - **Trading Strategy**: There are no arbitrage or unilateral trading strategies at present [3]. 3.2 Review of Futures and Spot Market - The futures market fluctuated within a range. The spot price in Shandong was stable with a slight increase, and the futures price reached a new low. The subsidy for liquid chlorine decreased, its price rose to 50 yuan/ton, and the chlor - alkali profit remained high. After the holiday, demand improved slightly, and restocking demand increased. In the future, the new maintenance of alumina will increase, and the supply - demand of caustic soda will turn to be loose, so the spot price is expected to be stable with a slight decrease [7]. - The total open interest increased, and the far - month contracts added positions [25]. 3.3 Caustic Soda Supply - Demand Fundamental Data - **Electricity Price**: As the summer peak electricity consumption season approaches, the electricity price stabilizes [33]. - **Upstream Production**: Production decreased slightly, and inventory decreased slightly [36]. - **Main Production Area Output**: Maintenance in North China increased, and production decreased [39]. - **Chlor - alkali Comprehensive Profit**: The chlor - alkali comprehensive profit decreased [40]. - **Downstream Price**: The alumina price declined, and non - aluminum prices were weak [43]. - **Alumina**: Alumina production recovered, and inventory accumulated. Due to the end of maintenance and the commissioning of new plants, the production rate of alumina in Henan increased significantly. The supply - demand balance of alumina was restored, inventory accumulated, port bauxite inventory decreased, and alumina profit was good and remained stable year - on - year [55][56][66]. - **Non - aluminum Demand**: Non - aluminum production remained stable but was lower than the same period last year. Non - aluminum entered the seasonal off - season, and production began to decline [67][68]. - **Liquid Chlorine Downstream**: The production rate rebounded [75]. - **Subsequent Maintenance Information**: Multiple enterprises in different regions have maintenance plans in October and November [78].

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】31号 【烧碱周报（SH ）】 现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌 国贸期货 能源化工研究中心 2025-10-13 叶海文 从业资格证号：F3071622 投资咨询证号：Z0014205 张国才 从业资格证号：F03133773 本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅供参考，不构成任何投资建议；期市有风险，投资需谨慎 01 PART ONE 主要观点及策略概述 烧碱 :现货价格稳中有涨，盘面持续下跌 | 影响因素 | 驱动 | 主要逻辑 | | --- | --- | --- | | 供给 | 中性 | （1）本周检修有所增加，产量有所下滑。周度国内烧碱产量环比下降0.2万吨至83万吨;（2）20万吨及以上烧碱样本企业产能平均利用率为84.0%，较上 | | | | 周环比-0.7%。分区域来看，假期期间，西北及华北负荷均有下滑，其中西北-1.8%至91.8%；华北-1.4%至76.8%。 | | 需求 | 中性 | （1）季节性淡季，非铝需求复工不足。（2）粘胶短纤行业产能利用率89.63%，较上周-0.19%。本周山东部分粘胶装置运行负荷降低，周内行业整体 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - SH2601 fluctuated slightly, closing at 2,576 yuan/ton. The caustic soda capacity utilization rate increased by 1.8% week-on-week to 84.2% last week. The alumina开工率 decreased by 1.2% week-on-week to 84.38%, the viscose staple fiber开工率 increased by 1.08% week-on-week to 87.10%, and the printing and dyeing开工率 increased by 0.9% week-on-week to 65.63%. The liquid caustic soda factory inventory increased by 2.17% week-on-week to 387,800 tons last week. One set of equipment in Central China and two sets in the Northwest are scheduled for maintenance this week, which may lead to a slight decline in capacity utilization. There are many maintenance plans for chlor-alkali plants in September, and the industry's supply pressure is expected to be relieved. Some alumina enterprises have short-term elastic production, but due to the considerable industry profits, the production enthusiasm of alumina enterprises is still high. Non-aluminum demand has a seasonal increase, and some previously shut-down plants have restarted. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda is not large, and attention should be paid to the subsequent inventory removal rhythm. In terms of spot, the price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is expected to remain stable or rise slightly in the short term. In terms of futures, the high-level of caustic soda warehouse receipts has decreased, but the fourth-quarter production capacity expectation still suppresses the futures price, and the main contract may continue to be at a discount. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The main contract closing price of caustic soda is 2,576 yuan/ton; the main contract open interest is 110,586 lots, an increase of 568 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures is -8,561 lots, an increase of 4,574 lots; the main contract trading volume is 245,799 lots, a decrease of 16,050 lots; the closing price of the January contract is 2,576 yuan/ton; the closing price of the May contract is 2,670 yuan/ton, an increase of 9 yuan [1] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong is 870 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is 940 yuan/ton. The converted 100% caustic soda price in Shandong is 2,718.75 yuan/ton. The basis is 143 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7 yuan [1] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong and the Northwest is 210 yuan/ton. The price of steam coal is 641 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1 yuan [1] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong is -150 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu, it is -200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan [1] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber is 13,040 yuan/ton; the spot price of alumina is 3,010 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan [1] 3.6 Industry News - From August 29 to September 4, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.2%, a week-on-week increase of 1.8%. As of September 4, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above nationwide was 387,800 tons (wet weight), a week-on-week increase of 2.17% and a year-on-year increase of 35.17% [1]

Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating. Core Viewpoint - The caustic soda market is in a volatile situation. Near - term, the futures price has corrected due to near - month warehouse receipts and weak exports, but domestic demand is stable. The warehouse receipt issue is a short - term impact, and the quality of the peak season depends on export performance [1][3] Summary by Related Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 01 contract futures price is 2670, the cheapest deliverable spot 32 - alkali price in Shandong is 870, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price is 2719, and the basis is 49 [1] Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the liquid caustic soda price in Shandong remained stable today, with little price change. Attention should be paid to the delivery volume of major downstream industries [2] Market Condition Analysis - In the past week, the caustic soda futures price corrected, mainly due to near - month warehouse receipts (mostly from Zhejiang, posing high pressure on near - month long positions) and weak exports (sufficient supply in Southeast Asia, poor export signing, and weak 50 - alkali - 32 - alkali price difference). Domestic demand is stable, non - aluminum demand may improve in the peak season, alumina production is at a high level, and there is an expected new production capacity of 360 million tons in Guangxi at the end of this year, which may drive the circulation of domestic 50 - alkali [3] Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, indicating a neutral view [5]

期货研究 烧碱：不宜追空，四季度偏多对待 陈嘉昕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020481 chenjiaxin2@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 烧碱基本面数据 01合约期货价格 山东最便宜可交割 现货32碱价格 山东现货32碱折盘面 基差 2699 860 2688 -12 2025 年 8 月 28 日 资料来源：隆众资讯，国泰君安期货 【现货消息】 以山东地区为基准，今日山东液碱整体持稳，小部分企业价格上调，目前省内液碱库存短期持续低位， 关注重点在主力下游送货量的变化上。 【市场状况分析】 近两天烧碱期货价格出现回调，主要来自近月仓单和出口弱势的压制。从仓单看，截至 8 月 26 日，烧 碱 09 合约上仍有 114 手仓单，其中主要为浙江地区仓单，对近月多头而言，接货压力较大，同时 9 月后仍 可能有新仓单出现。从出口方面看，Vinythai 新增产能、日韩高供应使得东南亚供应充足，出口利润始终 无法扩张，近期出口签单较差，50 碱-32 碱价差偏弱，导致烧碱上涨驱动不足。 内需方面仍稳定，非铝需求面临旺季改善，氧化铝开工高位，刚需支撑强，且今年年底广西地区存在 360 万吨产能预期投产，广西地区烧 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided on the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - In the short - term, the caustic soda market is in a off - season, but the market is expected to enter the consumption peak season in September and October. The previous positive factors have not disappeared, and the market can refocus on these factors. - The short - selling orders should take profits at an appropriate time, and long - buying orders should enter the market at an appropriate time. The production profit of caustic soda will enter a seasonal expansion stage later [5]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Overview - **Supply**: In the week of 20250801 - 0807, the average capacity utilization rate of China's caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 85.1%, a week - on - week increase of 1.2%. The capacity utilization rate in the Northwest increased significantly, slightly increased in North China, and decreased in Northeast China. It is estimated that next week, the capacity utilization rate will be about 83.1%, and the weekly output will be about 804,500 tons [5]. - **Demand**: China's alumina production was 1851,000 tons this week, a slight increase from last week. The production of viscose staple fiber remained unchanged at 85,100 tons. As of August 7, 2025, the comprehensive operating rate in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region was 59.28%, a week - on - week increase of 0.38%. The terminal market demand was still weak, and the orders for autumn and winter fabric samples were lower than in previous years. The industry generally expects demand to pick up gradually after mid - September [5]. - **Inventory**: As of August 7, 2025, the factory inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 461,700 tons (wet tons), a week - on - week increase of 8.84% and a year - on - year increase of 17.08%. The capacity utilization rate of liquid caustic soda sample enterprises was 26.56%, a week - on - week increase of 2.87% [5]. - **Profit**: Last Friday, the average price of liquid caustic soda in Shandong was 2,500 yuan/ton, and the average price of liquid chlorine was - 150 yuan/ton. The profit of chlor - alkali enterprises was 253 yuan/ton, which was at a neutral level in the same period of history. The production profit will enter a seasonal expansion stage later [5]. 3.2 Price - The report presents historical price data of Shandong chlor - alkali products (32% and 50% caustic soda, liquid chlorine), flake caustic soda, export caustic soda, caustic soda futures, and raw materials (raw salt, coal) from 2021 - 2025 [7][10][13][16]. 3.3 Supply - **Production and Capacity Utilization**: The report shows the weekly production, operating rate, device loss, and cumulative production of caustic soda in China from 2021 - 2025 [21]. - **Inventory and Profit**: It presents the liquid caustic soda inventory of sample enterprises, the number and quantity of caustic soda futures warehouse receipts, and the profit of Shandong chlor - alkali enterprises from 2021 - 2025 [24]. - **Maintenance Plan**: There are records of the maintenance and planned maintenance of chlor - alkali devices in various regions this week and in the future [26]. 3.4 Demand - **Alumina Industry**: The report shows the production, cash profit, liquid caustic soda purchase price, and inventory of alumina in China from 2022 - 2025 [29][32]. - **Textile Industry**: It presents the capacity utilization rate, market price, factory inventory, and inventory - available days of viscose staple fiber, as well as the weekly operating rate, order days, and finished - product inventory - available days of textile enterprises and the operating rate of printing and dyeing factories in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region from 2021 - 2025 [35][38]. - **Pulp and Paper Industry**: It shows the production of pulp and paper products, the inventory - available days of paper products in upstream factories, and the cumulative production of Chinese machine - made paper and cardboard from 2021 - 2025 [41]. - **Export**: The monthly and cumulative export volumes of liquid caustic soda, flake caustic soda, and caustic soda in China from 2021 - 2025 are presented [44].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core View of the Report - The recent rebound of caustic soda futures prices is driven by previous production cuts due to weak liquid chlorine and downstream seasonal restocking, but the supply - side drive is unsustainable as production - cut devices have resumed, and the demand is in the off - season, so the rebound lacks sustainability. Once costs decline and spot prices struggle to rise, the market may short caustic soda profits. The supply pressure is still high in July with reduced maintenance capacity compared to June and new capacity of 1.1 million tons from June to July. Non - aluminum demand support is weak, while the export direction provides some support [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - The 09 - contract futures price is 2466, the cheapest deliverable spot 32 - alkali price in Shandong is 820, the Shandong spot 32 - alkali converted to the futures price is 2563, and the basis is 97 [1] Spot News - In the Shandong liquid caustic soda market, prices are stable, with local areas holding steady and observing. High - concentration caustic soda has low inventory supported by previous orders, but high - price sales are poor after the price increase. Low - concentration caustic soda's high - price sales have slowed down, and the inventory of each factory varies [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound of caustic soda futures prices is due to previous production cuts of some devices affected by weak liquid chlorine and downstream seasonal restocking. However, the rapid decline of liquid chlorine has led to the resumption of chlorine - consuming downstream industries, and the production - cut devices of caustic soda have basically recovered this week, so the supply - side drive is unsustainable. The demand is in the seasonal off - season, and downstream willingness to restock at high prices is low, so the rebound lacks sustainability. In July, the maintenance capacity of caustic soda has decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance mainly concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and previously maintained devices in Shandong will gradually restart. From June to July, new caustic soda capacity may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high. Non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina's caustic soda inventory is neutral, and the export direction provides some support with strong willingness to restock at low prices [3] Trend Intensity - The caustic soda trend intensity is - 1, indicating a weak bearish view [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is due to some plants reducing production due to the weak liquid chlorine market and downstream seasonal restocking, but the supply - side driver is unsustainable as plants have resumed production, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season, so the rebound lacks sustainability [3] - In July, the caustic soda maintenance capacity decreased significantly compared to June, with maintenance concentrated in the Northwest and East China, and the previously shut - down plants in Shandong will restart. The new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, so the supply pressure is still high [3] - On the demand side, non - aluminum demand support is weak, the alumina caustic soda inventory is neutral, but the export direction provides good support with strong willingness to restock at low prices [3] - The caustic soda trend strength is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [3] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - On July 15, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price was 2532, the cheapest deliverable spot 32% caustic soda price in Shandong was 820, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2563, and the basis was 31 [1] Spot News - On July 15, 2025, the price of liquid chlorine at Shandong Xinfa remained unchanged at - 250 yuan ex - factory [2] Market Condition Analysis - The recent rebound in caustic soda futures prices is driven by supply - side production cuts and downstream restocking, but the supply - side driver is short - lived as plants have resumed production, and the demand is in a seasonal off - season [3] - In July, maintenance capacity decreased, and new production capacity from June to July may reach 1.1 million tons, leading to high supply pressure [3] - Non - aluminum demand support is weak, alumina inventory is neutral, and the export market provides good support [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - After the May Day holiday, caustic soda futures may be short - term oscillating stronger based on the holiday spot price trend and the new capacity launch of alumina. However, considering the return of 05 warehouse receipts to the spot market and the weakness of the demand side, caustic soda is still in a negative feedback pattern [3][4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - On May 7, 2025, the 09 - contract futures price of caustic soda was 2498, the price of the cheapest deliverable 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 780, the Shandong spot 32% caustic soda converted to the futures price was 2438, and the basis was - 61 [1] 3.2 Spot News - Taking Shandong as the benchmark, the price of 32% ion - membrane caustic soda closed at 800 yuan/ton today, up 2.56% from the previous period. After the May Day holiday, most enterprises in Shandong had good sales, low inventory, and the price showed an upward trend. In the short term, attention should be paid to changes in enterprise inventory and delivery volume data, and there is a possibility of further price increases [2] 3.3 Market Condition Analysis - **Demand Side**: Alumina has low profit and high raw material caustic soda inventory. Although new capacity launch increases the rigid demand, the short - term inventory demand for caustic soda is weak. Non - aluminum demand is generally weak, and some industries such as viscose staple fiber, printing and dyeing, and pulp and paper industries are greatly affected by the trade war, with obvious declines in production. Exports can support caustic soda, but the purchasing of foreign merchants is cautious due to the trade war [3] - **Supply Side**: There will still be new maintenance in May. Since the profit is not in deficit, the manufacturer's load is generally at a high level. Attention should be paid to the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream on caustic soda supply. Although in the first quarter, the impact of chlorine - consuming downstream was limited due to the high profit of caustic soda, if caustic soda and liquid chlorine decline, marginal device supply will be affected by profit [3] 3.4 Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of caustic soda is 0, with the value range of [- 2, 2] for integers, indicating a neutral trend [4]