煤炭行业 2026 年度信用风险展望（2025 年 12 月） 工商评级三部 近年来中国煤炭价格走势 煤炭行业杠杆水平指标 煤炭行业信用风险展望丨 2026 摘要 公司邮箱：lianhe@lhratings.com 网址：www.lhratings.com 电话：010-85679696 传真：010-85679228 地址：北京市朝阳区建国门外大街 2 号中国人保财险大厦 17 层 www.lhratings.com 信用风险展望 0 近年来中国煤炭产量情况 煤炭行业经营现金流及资本支出（单位：亿元） 2025 年以来，煤炭行业以"稳产增产"为核心基调，聚焦智 能化、自动化转型，同步强化安全生产与环境保护监管，推 动高端装备国产化及新能源融合发展，行业准入门槛持续提 升。 2025 年 1－10 月，全国煤炭产量小幅增长，煤炭进口量有所 下降；需求端呈现结构分化，电力行业对动力煤需求形成稳 定支撑，非电行业需求疲软拖累焦煤、喷吹煤消费；国内煤 炭价格整体呈先抑后扬、震荡修复的走势，但整体均价仍不 及 2024 年，行业整体盈利水平同比下滑。行业集中度稳定， 呈现区域布局集中、头部企业主导的竞争格局。 202 ...

清晨，位于安徽省淮南市丁集矿采煤沉陷区5300亩的水面上，37.28万片蓝色光伏板整齐排列，在 阳光照射下与波光粼粼的水面交相辉映，格外壮丽。 这是安徽首个"光伏+采煤沉陷区综合治理"一体化示范项目。该项目由淮河能源控股集团有限责任 公司（以下简称"淮河能源"）投资建设。其中，已建成投运的一期项目装机规模15.68万千瓦；二期项 目装机容量24.32万千瓦，目前正在建设中。近年来，淮河能源主动响应国家"双碳"目标，走出一条煤 炭与新能源共生共荣的转型之路。 "新型能源体系以非化石能源为供应主体、化石能源为兜底保障。煤电与新能源协同，能有效平抑 新能源的间歇性波动，提升能源系统稳定性。"李松举例说，集团60万千瓦以上清洁高效煤电机组占比 超九成，这些机组通过灵活性改造后，可与光伏、风电形成"稳定器+增量器"的组合，为能源安全装 上"双保险"。 今年10月，国家能源局印发《关于推进煤炭与新能源融合发展的指导意见》（以下简称《意 见》），系统性提出煤炭与新能源融合的主要应用场景和重点发展方向，为煤炭企业绿色转型指明发展 路径。 能源转型浪潮之下，煤炭这一传统能源支柱如何与新能源深度融合，实现"1+1>2"？目前融合 ...

转自：科技日报 ◎本报记者 洪敬谱 通讯员 于晨晨 清晨，位于安徽省淮南市丁集矿采煤沉陷区5300亩的水面上，37.28万片蓝色光伏板整齐排列，在阳光 照射下与波光粼粼的水面交相辉映，格外壮丽。 这是安徽首个"光伏+采煤沉陷区综合治理"一体化示范项目。该项目由淮河能源控股集团有限责任公司 （以下简称"淮河能源"）投资建设。其中，已建成投运的一期项目装机规模15.68万千瓦；二期项目装 机容量24.32万千瓦，目前正在建设中。近年来，淮河能源主动响应国家"双碳"目标，走出一条煤炭与 新能源共生共荣的转型之路。 今年10月，国家能源局印发《关于推进煤炭与新能源融合发展的指导意见》（以下简称《意见》），系 统性提出煤炭与新能源融合的主要应用场景和重点发展方向，为煤炭企业绿色转型指明发展路径。 能源转型浪潮之下，煤炭这一传统能源支柱如何与新能源深度融合，实现"1+1>2"？目前融合取得了哪 些突破，又有哪些亟待跨越的障碍？近日，科技日报记者走访多家煤矿企业探寻答案。 为能源安全装上"双保险" "既要采煤，还要发展新能源，这是由我们的国情所决定的。"安徽理工大学实验室设备处处长、煤炭无 人化开采数智技术全国重点实验室副 ...

Core Insights - The report maintains a "recommended" investment rating for the coal mining industry, highlighting a tightening supply and expected demand release during winter, which is anticipated to stabilize coal prices within a reasonable range [1][2]. Policy Impact - The 2025 coal industry policies focus on "ensuring supply and stabilizing prices" and "controlling production and improving quality," with measures to enhance supply resilience and promote industry transformation towards carbon neutrality [6][11]. - The implementation of the overproduction inspection policy in July 2025 aims to curb excessive competition and stabilize coal prices, which had been under pressure earlier in the year [12][11]. Supply and Demand Analysis - For thermal coal, supply is expected to contract while demand is projected to grow, with coal production growth slowing down and imports anticipated to decline by about 10% in 2025 [6][35]. - The demand for thermal coal is expected to remain stable, supported by a potential cold winter and increased electricity consumption during peak seasons [38][39]. Price Dynamics - The report indicates that the price of thermal coal is likely to recover due to a combination of supply constraints and seasonal demand increases, with the price expected to rise from approximately 620 CNY/ton in July 2025 to around 820 CNY/ton by November 2025 [18][6]. Coking Coal Outlook - Coking coal, being a scarce resource, is expected to see limited supply growth, but demand may rebound due to recovery in the real estate and infrastructure sectors, which could stimulate steel production and, consequently, coking coal consumption [6][42]. - The report emphasizes that coking coal prices are more elastic and could see significant growth potential in response to demand recovery [6][7]. Investment Strategy - The coal sector is viewed as having long-term investment value, driven by both dividend and cyclical factors, with recommendations to focus on leading companies with strong dividend yields and potential for growth [7][6]. - Key companies to watch include China Shenhua and Shaanxi Coal and Chemical Industry for stable dividends, and Yanzhou Coal Mining, Lu'an Environmental Energy, and Huaibei Mining for their market-driven growth potential [7][6].

能源革命在各省的宏伟规划中已从战略蓝图转化为行动纲领，随着"十五五"时期实现碳达峰目标顶层部 署的确定，一场以科技创新为核心驱动、重塑地区产业版图的绿色转型大潮正席卷全国。 湖北省则致力于打造区域性的清洁能源枢纽。12月5日，湖北省委关于制定全省国民经济和社会发展第 十五个五年规划的建议发布，其中提到，建设新型能源体系。以就地就近消纳为主推动风光发电资源高 效利用，深化水电绿色改造，打造长江中游大型清洁能源基地。拓展绿电入鄂通道，推进抽水蓄能、新 型储能建设，增强电力汇集、储存、调节功能，打造全国重要电力调蓄中心。加大鄂西页岩气调查勘探 开发力度，完善"五纵四横"油气管网，建设"天潜云应"地下储气库群，打造全国天然气管网核心枢纽。 从东部沿海到中西部腹地，各省的"十五五"规划建议密集出炉，勾勒出一幅目标清晰、路径各异的能源 转型全景图。 顶层设计的战略指引 "加快建设新型能源体系。持续提高新能源供给比重，推进化石能源安全可靠有序替代，着力构建新型 电力系统，建设能源强国"——日前发布的"十五五"规划建议中，16个"强国"建设目标中的一项即建设 能源强国。这也是能源强国首次出现在五年规划里。 向外看，全球能源供 ...

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of developing technologies for the efficient utilization of low-concentration coal mine gas (methane) in Shanxi, China, highlighting recent advancements and government support for this initiative [2][4]. Group 1: Technological Advancements - The research team has developed a "artificial zeolite molecular sieve technology" that addresses the challenge of utilizing methane concentrations between 2% and 8%, which were previously deemed unusable [2][3]. - The new technology allows for the efficient separation of methane from nitrogen, enabling the utilization of low-concentration coal mine gas and laying the foundation for its tiered quality enhancement [2][3]. - The team conducted over 20,000 experiments to create a high-performance adsorbent material for methane concentration, which has been recognized with a first-class award from the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Federation in 2021 [3]. Group 2: Government Support and Standards - In late 2022, the Ministry of Ecology and Environment and the State Administration for Market Regulation revised the methane emission standards for coal mines, tightening the allowable concentration from 30% to 8%, which opens up new opportunities for the application of the developed technology [3][4]. - The National Energy Administration issued guidelines in October 2023 to promote the integration of coal and new energy, emphasizing the importance of comprehensive utilization of coal mine gas [4]. Group 3: Industry Context and Future Outlook - Shanxi has a rich resource of coal bed methane, with geological resources exceeding 30 trillion cubic meters at depths shallower than 2000 meters, making it a significant contributor to China's natural gas supply [5]. - The province has established two national coal bed methane industrial bases and aims to increase production, with a target of extracting 134.3 billion cubic meters of coal bed gas by 2024 [5]. - The research team plans to continue optimizing low-concentration methane purification technology and accelerate its promotion to support national energy security and the green transformation of coal mining [4].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, suggesting a "Buy" rating for specific stocks based on their performance relative to the market [3][29]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the coal prices are expected to rise due to supply constraints and seasonal demand, particularly in the context of winter heating needs [3][4]. - It emphasizes the impact of environmental regulations and safety inspections on coal production, which are likely to tighten supply further [3][7]. - The report identifies several companies as potential investment opportunities, including Jin控煤业, 华阳股份, and 山煤国际, based on their price elasticity and valuation [3][4]. Summary by Sections 1. Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the initiation of the third round of central ecological environment protection inspections, which will affect major coal-producing regions and companies [7]. - It mentions the State Energy Administration's guidance on integrating coal with renewable energy, focusing on low-carbon transitions and new energy developments in mining areas [7]. 2. Price Trends of Coal - The report notes fluctuations in domestic coal prices, with specific increases in certain regions, such as a rise of 10 CNY/ton in Dazhou and Ordos [8]. - The overall coal price index in the Bohai Rim region has increased by 4 CNY/ton, indicating a general upward trend in coal prices [8]. 3. International Oil Prices - Brent crude oil prices have risen by 1.19% to 64.39 USD/barrel, which may influence coal prices due to the relationship between oil and coal markets [14]. 4. Port Inventory Trends - The report indicates an increase in coal inventory at the Bohai Rim ports, with a total of 24.3 million tons, reflecting a 2.56% rise week-on-week [18]. 5. Domestic and International Freight Rates - Domestic coastal shipping rates have increased slightly, with an average of 51.52 CNY/ton, while international shipping rates from Australia to China have also seen a rise [23]. 6. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a detailed valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, highlighting their stock prices, market capitalization, and earnings projections [28].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the coal industry, indicating an "Overweight" rating for the sector [3]. Core Insights - The report highlights that due to safety and environmental inspections, coal production is expected to tighten, leading to an anticipated increase in coal prices during the heating season [3]. - The report provides specific price data for thermal coal and coking coal, noting price increases and supply constraints in key production areas [3][10][11]. - The report suggests that the demand for thermal coal is expected to rebound during the peak season, recommending specific companies for investment based on their price elasticity and valuation [3]. Summary by Sections Recent Industry Policies and Dynamics - The report discusses the initiation of central ecological and environmental inspections across several provinces and major state-owned enterprises, which may impact coal production [9]. - It mentions the release of guidelines by the National Energy Administration aimed at integrating coal with new energy sources, emphasizing low-carbon transitions [9]. Price Trends - Thermal coal prices have shown mixed trends, with some regions experiencing price increases while others have seen declines [10]. - Coking coal prices have generally increased, with specific price points provided for various regions [13]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The report notes an increase in daily coal inflow and outflow at the Bohai Rim ports, indicating a tightening supply situation [22]. - It highlights a decrease in power plant inventories and an increase in daily consumption rates, suggesting a growing demand for coal [5][22]. International Oil Prices - The report indicates a rise in Brent crude oil prices, which may influence coal pricing dynamics [17]. Shipping Costs - Domestic and international shipping costs have increased, which could affect overall coal pricing and supply chain logistics [28]. Company Valuation Table - The report includes a valuation table for key companies in the coal sector, providing insights into their market capitalization, earnings per share, and price-to-earnings ratios [33].

Core Viewpoint - Beiyuan Group (601568.SH) has established an integrated circular economy industrial chain that includes coal, salt, power generation, calcium carbide, chlor-alkali chemicals (ion membrane caustic soda, PVC), and comprehensive utilization of industrial waste to produce cement, which aligns with the policy of "coal and new energy integration development" [1] Group 1 - The company has built a 300MW photovoltaic power generation project, demonstrating a solid foundation for the collaborative utilization of energy resources [1] - The company's strategic direction focuses on energy conservation and emission reduction, optimizing energy structure, and lowering overall energy consumption, which is positively influenced by the current policy environment [1] - The integration of coal and new energy development is expected to significantly promote the company's green transformation and development [1]

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the importance of integrating coal and renewable energy to ensure energy security while promoting green transformation in the coal industry, highlighting that coal will remain a crucial energy source in the near future despite the push for cleaner energy alternatives [4][5]. Group 1: Economic Context - The National Energy Administration's guidance aims to develop renewable energy based on coal mining resources, promoting a clean energy transition while extending the coal industry chain [4]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" suggests reaching peak coal and oil consumption, indicating a strategic shift towards cleaner energy sources [4]. Group 2: Resource Advantages - Coal mining areas are identified as natural sites for renewable energy development due to their abundant wind and solar resources [5]. - Existing infrastructure in mining areas, such as substations and transmission lines, can support renewable energy projects, reducing construction costs [5]. - The workforce in coal mining regions can be retrained for renewable energy operations, optimizing resource utilization [5]. Group 3: Industry Needs - The coal industry faces pressure from rising costs and shrinking profit margins, necessitating a search for new growth points through renewable energy [5]. - Transitioning to renewable energy can help coal companies reduce electricity costs and shift from merely selling coal to providing energy and services [5]. Group 4: Production Integration - The article advocates for the development of large-scale photovoltaic bases and wind power projects in coal-producing regions, leveraging existing land and resources [6]. - It suggests utilizing geothermal energy and distributed solar heating in mining areas to enhance energy efficiency and reduce carbon emissions [6]. Group 5: Consumption Integration - The article calls for electrification of key coal production processes and the replacement of mining equipment with renewable energy alternatives [6]. - Establishing charging and hydrogen stations in mining areas can facilitate the transition to greener energy usage [6]. Group 6: Industry Chain Integration - Coal companies are encouraged to invest in clean and efficient power generation and renewable energy, gradually transforming into comprehensive energy service providers [7]. - The development of innovative coal-based products can enhance the value of coal and contribute to a greener industry chain [7]. - The article references Germany's Ruhr area as a successful example of transitioning from traditional industries to high-tech and modern services, suggesting a positive outlook for the coal industry's transformation [7].