1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The coking coal market in 2026 will present a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic". Overseas disturbances are frequent, but the weak terminal demand fundamentally restricts the profit repair space of the black industry chain, making it difficult to launch a trend - rising market [2][47] - In the second quarter, it is less likely for China to implement administrative control measures such as restricting coal mine开工 and production. Domestic coking coal production will remain at a high level. The import of coking coal will show structural differentiation, with the total import volume remaining stable [2][47] - In the short term, coke production will increase slightly due to the improvement of chemical product profits. In the long run, the overall profit of the black industry chain is still shrinking. The coking industry will face double squeeze from upstream coal mines and downstream steel mills, and the production may decline from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter [2][47] - The profit repair of the coking industry faces dual constraints. The slowdown of steel exports and the weak domestic demand in traditional fields such as real estate and infrastructure put pressure on terminal demand [2][47] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review in the First Quarter of 2026 - The main contracts of coking coal and coke showed a wide - range volatile pattern. The core drivers were "frequent overseas - driven rallies" and "continuous pressure from domestic supply - demand relaxation", with frequent rhythm switches [3] - The domestic supply - demand structure was loose. The supply of coking coal did not contract unexpectedly, and the demand was weak. The profit of downstream steel mills was under pressure, and the resumption of blast furnace production was slow [6] - The upward drive mainly came from overseas. External factors such as Indonesia's reduction of thermal coal production quotas and international oil price increases triggered several obvious rebound market trends [9] 3.2 Core Focus Points 3.2.1 Coking Coal Production - In 2025, there was a round of strict policy - based production restrictions in domestic coking coal production areas. The policy rhythm was "first control and then supply guarantee", and the annual coal production increased slightly [12] - Coal production is greatly affected by policies. Administrative means such as environmental protection, safety supervision, and over - production verification are important policy tools to regulate coal supply and prices [18] - In the second quarter of 2026, it is less likely to implement administrative control measures. The weekly average production of coking coal is expected to remain at about 10.3 million tons, with a year - on - year increase of about 2.8% [21] 3.2.2 Coking Coal Import - Since 2023, China has imported more than 100 million tons of coking coal annually, accounting for about 20% of the total supply. Import has become an important external variable for stabilizing domestic supply and demand [20] - In the second quarter of 2026, the import of coking coal will show structural growth. Mongolian coal imports are expected to continue to increase. Australian coal, although with a limited proportion, still has a significant influence as the pricing benchmark for seaborne coal. The import window for US coking coal is expected to remain closed, and the shortfall may be replaced by Canadian coal. Russian coking coal exports to China are expected to increase [36] 3.2.3 Coke Supply - In recent years, the profitability of the coking industry has declined, and the contradiction of over - capacity has intensified. The average coking profit per ton of coking enterprises decreased from about 195.29 yuan in 2021 to 8.11 yuan in 2024, and the capacity utilization rate also declined [37] - The capacity utilization rate of steel - coking integrated coking enterprises is significantly higher than that of independent coking enterprises, and the proportion of steel mill coking capacity is increasing year by year [39] - In the short term, the coking profit has been repaired, and the coke production is expected to increase slightly. In the long term, the coking industry will face double squeeze, and the production may decline from the end of the second quarter to the third quarter [41] 3.2.4 Coke Demand - China's steel exports are a "quantity - for - price" strategy under the background of weak domestic demand, which squeezes the overall profit of the black industry chain. The coking industry is in a difficult situation due to weak terminal demand and over - capacity [43] - In 2026, the profit repair of the coking industry faces dual constraints. The slowdown of steel exports and the weak domestic demand in traditional fields make the terminal demand of coking coal face great pressure [45] 3.3 Summary and Outlook - In the second quarter, domestic coking coal production will remain high, and the import will show structural differentiation. Coke production will increase slightly in the short term and may decline in the long term. The coal - coke market presents a pattern of "strong overseas and weak domestic", and it is difficult to have a trend - rising market [47] - The shock range of the coking coal main contract is (900, 1500), and that of the coke main contract is (1350, 2000) [3][48]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Recently, coal and coke have been mainly fluctuating strongly. The market trading logic revolves around two aspects. Firstly, against the backdrop of geopolitical disturbances, the energy attribute of coking coal has been further fermented. Due to the impact of the US - Iran war, overseas energy prices have shown a significant upward shift, leading to sky - rocketing import coal freight and arrival prices in the domestic market. This has exacerbated the inversion of the price difference between domestic and foreign markets, and strengthened the preference of secondary - market funds for coking coal. Secondly, the profit of coking plants has improved due to the increase in energy and chemical prices, with an expected recovery in capacity utilization. The replenishment behavior has tightened the spot market of coking coal, and the price is expected to continue to rise. In the short term, investors are advised to be cautious and wait and see [5]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Coal and Coke Weekly Viewpoint 3.1.1 Supply - **Domestic Supply**: In Shanxi and Inner Mongolia, some coal mines that postponed resumption due to major meetings have continued to resume production. The overall supply in the production areas has been increasing. The weekly output of raw coal from sample coal mines increased by 21.4 tons to 1253.32 tons, and the output of clean coal increased by 9.37 tons to 618.93 tons. The capacity utilization rate increased by 1.49% to 87.2%, returning to the pre - holiday level [3]. - **Import**: Due to the tense international situation and high prices of energy such as crude oil, the forward price of Australian quasi - first - line coking coal rebounded slightly to around FOB224 US dollars, a weekly increase of 4 US dollars. The equivalent domestic port pick - up price is about 1953 yuan/ton. Compared with the domestic production area coal price, the forward price of Australian coal is still severely inverted [3]. 3.1.2 Demand - The price of coking coal has risen significantly, and the resumption of blast furnaces has continued to advance. This week, the pig iron output increased by 6.59 tons to 228.15 tons. Some coking enterprises have started to raise prices, and mainstream coking enterprises may follow suit next week [6]. 3.1.3 Inventory - The total inventory of coking coal in each link increased by 29.4 tons week - on - week. The inventory in the coal mine link decreased by 23.6 tons, with good sales at the mine end. The inventory of coking and steel enterprises in the downstream is in the resumption stage, with high production enthusiasm and increased coal demand. The coking coal inventory in the independent coking link increased by 35.6 tons compared with last week [6]. 3.2 Coal and Coke Fundamental Data Changes | Fundamental Changes | Coal | Coke | | --- | --- | --- | | Supply | FW raw coal 880.86 (+6.95); FW clean coal 448.54 (+2.60) | Independent coking plant daily average 64.2 (+0.3); Steel mill coking enterprise daily average 47.3 (+0.3) | | Demand | Pig iron output 228.15 (+6.95) | Pig iron output 228.15 (+6.95) | | Inventory | MS total inventory +29.4; Mine clean coal - 15.69; Independent coking +35.6; Mine raw coal - 10.04; Steel mill coking - 3.7; Port - 16.6; Port of entry +3.5 | MS total inventory +0.2; Independent coking - 6.2; Steel mill +0.6; Port +5.8 | | Profit | Commodity coal 457 (+13); Mongolian 5 Tangshan warehouse receipt 1243 | Coking enterprise average profit 77 (+5); Port quasi - dry quenched coke warehouse receipt 1700 | [8] 3.3 Coking Coal Fundamental Data - **Supply**: The report provides data on the weekly and monthly supply of coking coal, including the production of raw coal and clean coal from sample mines, and the monthly production of coking bituminous coal and coking clean coal. It also shows the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at various ports [10][12][14]. - **Inventory**: It details the inventory of coking coal at the pithead, ports, coking plants, and steel mills, including the inventory volume and available days [22][26][29][35]. 3.4 Coke Fundamental Data - **Supply**: It includes the capacity utilization rate and production of coking plants and steel mills. The capacity utilization rate of independent coking plants and steel enterprises is presented, as well as the daily output of coke from coking plants and steel mills [38][43][45]. - **Inventory**: The inventory of coke at coking plants and steel mills is provided, including the inventory volume, available days, and regional inventory [49][50][52]. - **Demand**: The demand for coke is mainly reflected in the pig iron production, and the supply - demand difference of coke is also analyzed [61]. - **Profit**: The report shows the profit of coke, including the disk profit of coke per ton and the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises [64]. 3.5 Coal and Coke Futures and Spot Prices - **Futures**: The trading information of coking coal 2605, coking coal 2609, coke 2605, and coke 2609 futures contracts is provided, including the closing price, price change, trading volume, and open interest [67][70]. - **Spot**: The spot prices of coking coal and coke are presented, including the car - board price of different types of coking coal and the ex - factory price of different grades of metallurgical coke [78]. - **Basis**: The basis of coking coal and coke futures contracts is shown [80].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The expectation of rising hot metal production is likely to boost the sentiment in the raw material market. However, due to the transmission of overseas geopolitical conflicts, the valuation of coal and coke has rebounded, and the price rebound is lackluster. Short - term risk control should be noted to avoid chasing up [4] Group 3: Summary According to Related Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, the futures prices of coal and coke fluctuated weakly and closed down at the end of the session. The overall fluctuation was still relatively intense. The 05 contract of coking coal should pay attention to the resistance level of 1,200 yuan/ton above. On the spot side, the coke market remained stable, and coke enterprises had no plans to raise prices recently; the price of coking coal in individual producing areas rebounded slightly [3] Supply Side - In terms of the fundamentals of coal and coke, coal mine production has recovered to a high level. This week, the daily production of raw coal and clean coal from 523 sample coking coal mines was 1.969 million tons and 798,000 tons respectively, an increase of 33,000 tons and 21,000 tons respectively compared with the previous week, and the increase rate has slowed down. At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume at the Ganqimaodu Port for Mongolian coal remained at a relatively high level. The average daily customs clearance volume last week was 187,000 tons, and the inventory in the port supervision area continued to increase. According to customs data, in the first two months, China's cumulative coal imports were 77.222 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 1.45% [3] Demand Side - With the lifting of phased emission reduction restrictions, this week's hot metal production rebounded to 2.282 million tons, and there is still room for resumption of production in the near future. The purchasing sentiment of coke and steel enterprises for raw materials has improved [3]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided regarding the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - On February 3, 2026, the coke main contract closed at 1715 yuan/ton, with an intraday decline of 0.17%. The position of the main contract at the close was 35,800 lots, with a difference of -249 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price index of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Rizhao Port was 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%; the ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade wet - quenched coke at Qingdao Port was 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%. The coke fundamentals have little change, and raw material coking coal has not provided continuous support, so coke futures will maintain a low - level range operation [6][33]. - On February 3, 2026, the coking coal main contract closed at 1167.5 points, with an intraday decline of 0.17%. The position of the main contract at the close was 434,400 lots, with a difference of +2532 lots from the previous trading day. In the spot market, the latest quoted price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port was 1190.0 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.0%. Overall, the coking coal fundamentals have no obvious changes. There are three potential positive factors: downstream winter storage is ongoing, providing some support for coking coal spot; the Spring Festival is approaching, and there is an expectation that coal mines may stop production and have holidays in advance; the tense Middle - East situation has driven up the prices of energy commodities due to geopolitical premiums on crude oil. However, lacking domestic policy and fundamental support, coking coal futures still lack the momentum for continuous upward movement, and the price is expected to maintain a range operation in the near future [7][33]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industry News - From January 26 to February 1, 2026, global shipyards received 67 + 22 new ship orders. Chinese shipyards received 59 + 18 new ship orders, South Korean shipyards received 6 new ship orders, and French shipyards also received relevant new ship orders [8]. - On February 3, the price of coking coal in the Linfen Anze market dropped by 30 yuan/ton. The ex - factory price of low - sulfur main coking clean coal (A9, S0.5, V20, G85) was 1600 yuan/ton including cash and tax [9]. Spot Market - **Coke**: The current price of quasi - first - grade coke at Rizhao Port for flat - closing is 1520 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 3.40%, a month - on - month increase of 3.40%, a year - on - year decrease of 10.06%, and a decrease of 4.40% compared with the same period. The ex - warehouse price of quasi - first - grade coke at Qingdao Port is 1470 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.38%, no change month - on - month, a year - on - year decrease of 9.26%, and a decrease of 3.92% compared with the same period [10]. - **Coking Coal**: The current price of Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port is 1190 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 4.03%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.03%, a year - on - year increase of 0.85%, and an increase of 3.48% compared with the same period. The price of Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1620 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 1.89%, a month - on - month increase of 0.62%, a year - on - year increase of 8.72%, and an increase of 8.72% compared with the same period. The price of Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port is 1780 yuan/ton, no change week - on - week, no change month - on - month, a year - on - year increase of 16.34%, and an increase of 19.46% compared with the same period [10]. Futures Market - **Coke**: The closing price of the active contract of coke futures is 1715 yuan/ton, with a decline of 0.17%. The highest price is 1748 yuan/ton, the lowest price is 1691 yuan/ton, the trading volume is 22,079 lots, with a difference of - 1629 lots from the previous trading day, and the position is 35,837 lots, with a difference of -249 lots from the previous trading day [13]. - **Coking Coal**: The closing price of the active contract of coking coal futures is 1167.5 points, with a decline of 0.17%. The highest price is 1188 points, the lowest price is 1145 points, the trading volume is 1,120,877 lots, with a difference of -221,896 lots from the previous trading day, and the position is 434,435 lots, with a difference of +2532 lots from the previous trading day [13]. Relevant Charts - **Coke Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of 230 independent coking plants, port total coke inventory, 247 steel - mill coking plants, and total coke inventory on a weekly basis from 2021 to 2026 [14][16][17][18]. - **Coking Coal Inventory**: There are charts showing the inventory of coking coal at mine mouths, full - sample independent coking plants, ports, and 247 sample steel mills on a weekly basis from 2021 to 2026 [19][21][22][24]. - **Other Charts**: There are charts showing domestic steel - mill production (including blast - furnace operating rate and steel - mill profitability), Shanghai terminal wire - rod procurement volume, coal - washing plant production (including clean - coal inventory and operating rate), and coking - plant operation (including coke - ton profit and coke - oven capacity utilization) [27][29][32]. Future Outlook - **Coke**: The fundamentals have little change, and raw material coking coal has not provided continuous support, so coke futures will maintain a low - level range operation [33]. - **Coking Coal**: The fundamentals have no obvious changes. Although there are some positive factors, lacking domestic policy and fundamental support, coking coal futures still lack the momentum for continuous upward movement, and the price is expected to maintain a range operation in the near future [33].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the industry investment rating. 2. Core View The central bank's positive statement boosts market sentiment. After the new year, the production of coal, coke, and steel enterprises has recovered. The downstream's pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials supports the upstream's confidence in price support. The short - term disk price fluctuates sharply, so cautious operation is recommended [3]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price oscillated and declined, with a daily decline of nearly 4%, continuing high volatility. In the spot market, the trading atmosphere of coking coal has been active recently, the order volume at the pithead has rebounded, the continuous rate of auction failures has decreased, coal prices in many places have rebounded from low levels, and the quotation of Mongolian No. 5 raw coal at the port has increased by 115 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia have started to raise coke prices, with dry - quenched coke up 55 yuan/ton, to be implemented from January 15th [3]. Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: After the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 1.899 million tons and 734,000 tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at mines has increased, while the clean coal inventory has decreased because downstream coke - steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm. The daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 164,600 tons, 37,400 tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained relatively high [3]. - **Demand Side**: In the past two weeks, the profitability rate of steel mills has expanded, and the daily average hot - metal output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9th, it was 2.295 million tons, an increase of 20,700 tons compared with the previous week and 51,300 tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and small - scale upward trend in the short term. Later, the raw - material replenishment rhythm of steel mills is expected to accelerate, supporting the upstream's confidence in price support [3].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The central bank's positive statements at the meeting have boosted market sentiment. After the start of the new year, the production of coal, coke, and steel enterprises has recovered. The pre - holiday replenishment of raw materials by downstream enterprises supports the upstream's confidence in price - holding. The short - term futures price fluctuates sharply, and cautious operation is recommended [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Aspects Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price fluctuated strongly, with a daily increase of over 3%. However, the price dropped at night, basically erasing the daily gain. On the spot side, coal prices in many places have rebounded from the low level recently. The quotation of Mongolian No. 5 coal at the port has increased by 113 yuan/ton. Some coking plants in Inner Mongolia have started to raise the coke price, with the dry - quenched coke price increased by 55 yuan/ton, and the increase is planned to be implemented on January 15th. The coal - coke market has been strong recently due to the warming market sentiment and the downstream's seasonal replenishment [3] Fundamental Situation - After the start of the new year, coal mines have gradually resumed production. Last week, the production of coking raw coal and clean coal rebounded to 189.9 million tons and 73.4 million tons respectively. The raw coal inventory at the mine end has increased, while the clean coal inventory has decreased. This is mainly because downstream coking and steel enterprises have also resumed production and maintained a certain procurement rhythm for raw materials [3] - At the import end, the daily customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port last week was 16.46 million tons, 3.74 million tons higher than the same period last year, and the port inventory remained relatively high [3] - On the demand side, the profitability rate of steel mills has expanded in the past two weeks, and the daily average pig iron output of blast furnaces has stopped falling and rebounded. In the week of January 9th, it was 229.5 million tons, an increase of 2.07 million tons compared with the previous week and 5.13 million tons compared with the same period last year. It is expected to show a steady and small - scale recovery in the short term. Later, the raw material replenishment rhythm of steel mills is expected to accelerate, which will support the upstream's confidence in price - holding [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints of the Report - On December 10, the coke main contract closed at 1,527 yuan/ton, with an intraday increase of 0.36%. The position of the main contract was 26,038 lots, a decrease of 1,960 lots from the previous trading day. The spot prices in Rizhao Port and Qingdao Port remained unchanged week-on-week. The supply pressure of coking coal drags down the weak operation of coke futures, but considering the potential macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of coke's decline needs further observation. The main negative risk lies in the unexpectedly loose supply of coking coal [5][35]. - On December 10, the coking coal main contract closed at 1,070 points, with an intraday decline of 1.29%. The position of the main contract was 507,274 lots, an increase of 12,553 lots from the previous trading day. The latest quotation of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 1,170 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 2.5%. The accelerated release of Mongolian coal imports has brought supply - side pressure, leading to the weak operation of coking coal. However, considering the expected macro - positive from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year, the sustainability of this round of decline in coking coal futures needs further observation. Attention can be paid to the actual production situation of coal mines [5][35]. Summary by Directory Industry News - From January to November, national railway fixed - asset investment reached 753.8 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.9%, which effectively promoted social investment and supported high - quality economic and social development [7]. - On December 10, the auction prices of coking coal in the Lvliang market decreased. Among the 6 reported transactions, the total listed volume was 83,000 tons, with 58,000 tons sold and a non - sale rate of about 30% (up from 18% last week). The average transaction price of high - sulfur main coking coal decreased by 24 yuan/ton to 1,221 yuan/ton, while the average transaction prices of low - sulfur main coking coal were 1,404 yuan/ton and 1,443 yuan/ton respectively. In the short term, prices are weakly stable [8]. Spot Market | Variety | Current Price | Weekly Change | Monthly Change | Annual Change | Year - on - Year Change | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Rizhao Port quasi - first - grade coke (flat price) | 1,620 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 2.99% | - 4.14% | - 6.90% | | Qingdao Port quasi - first - grade coke (out - of - warehouse price) | 1,450 yuan/ton | 0.00% | 0.00% | - 10.49% | - 13.17% | | Mongolian coal at Ganqimaodu Port | 1,170 yuan/ton | - 2.50% | - 8.59% | - 0.85% | - 5.65% | | Australian - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,490 yuan/ton | - 4.49% | - 5.10% | 0.00% | - 5.10% | | Shanxi - produced coking coal at Jingtang Port | 1,650 yuan/ton | 0.00% | - 3.51% | 7.84% | - 2.37% | [9] Futures Market | Futures | Active Contract | Closing Price | Change Rate | High | Low | Volume | Volume Difference | Position | Position Difference | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Coke | | 1,527 yuan/ton | + 0.36% | 1,562 yuan/ton | 1,513.5 yuan/ton | 21,233 lots | 6,900 lots | 26,038 lots | - 1,960 lots | | Coking Coal | | 1,070 points | - 1.29% | 1,095.5 points | 1,067 points | 903,929 lots | 117,173 lots | 507,274 lots | 12,553 lots | [12] Related Charts - The report provides multiple charts showing the inventory of coke (including 230 independent coking plants, 247 steel - mill coking plants, port total inventory, and total inventory), coking coal (including mine - mouth, port, 247 sample steel - mill, and all - sample independent coking plant inventory), as well as other relevant data such as Shanghai terminal wire rod procurement volume, domestic steel - mill production, coal - washing plant production, and coking plant operation [13][21][28] Market Outlook - The analysis of coke and coking coal is consistent with the core viewpoints, emphasizing the impact of coking coal supply pressure on the weak operation of both, while also considering the potential positive factors from the Politburo economic meeting in December and the expected coal mine production cuts at the end of the year. The sustainability of the decline in both needs further observation [5][35]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View of the Report - Recently, the high-level clearance of Mongolian coal and domestic coal supply guarantee policies have impacted market sentiment. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The market is expected to remain weak in the short term [3][4] Summary by Relevant Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal and coke futures prices first declined and then rebounded, but weakened again during the night session. The positions of the 01 contract are gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month prices, and the futures prices are trading at a discount to the spot prices. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions回调, and coke prices remaining stable after four rounds of price increases [3] Fundamental Situation - Mysteel research shows that the shutdown of multiple coal mines in Linfen and Lüliang, Shanxi this week has led to a decline in coal production. Most of the shutdowns are for a long time, and there is little room for a significant increase in coal production in the short term. In December, some coal mines may reduce production due to the completion of annual production tasks, safety concerns, and weak downstream demand [3] Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%. From January to October, the cumulative imports were 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons or 5.16%. In October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has rebounded to a relatively high level. In October, Australia exported 1.0469 million tons of coking coal to China, with a significant month-on-month increase. The imports of Russian and Canadian coking coal decreased slightly in October compared to September [4] Later Concerns - Monitor the changes in steel mill blast furnace start-up rates and coal mine复产 situations [4]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoint of the Report - Recently, the high-level customs clearance of Mongolian coal and the domestic coal supply guarantee policy have impacted market sentiment. Additionally, the weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month contracts, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The market may remain weak in the short term [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalog Market Performance - Yesterday, the coking coal futures price continued its weak trend and further declined during the night session. The position of the 01 contract is gradually shifting to the 05 contract. The weak delivery logic has dragged down the near-month price, and the futures price is trading at a discount to the spot price. The spot market is generally weak, with coal prices in some regions experiencing corrections. After four rounds of price increases, coke prices have temporarily stabilized [3]. Import Data - In October, China imported 10.5932 million tons of coking coal, a month-on-month decrease of 3.03% and a year-on-year increase of 6.39%, remaining at a relatively high level. From January to October, the cumulative import volume was 94.1244 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.1231 million tons, or a decline of 5.16% [3]. - In terms of different countries, in October, Mongolia exported 5.3653 million tons of coking coal to China, a decrease of 635,200 tons from September, mainly due to the port closure during the National Day holiday. In November, the customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal has recovered to a relatively high level, and there are recent market rumors that the port will test a daily customs clearance of 2,000 trucks, so the actual customs clearance volume needs to be monitored [3]. - In October, the import volume of Australian coking coal was 1.0469 million tons, with a significant month-on-month increase. The import volumes of Russian and Canadian coking coal in October both decreased slightly compared to September [3]. Domestic Production and Demand - The domestic clean coal production is generally stable. On the demand side, the profit of steel mills continues to shrink. Last week, the average daily pig iron output decreased to 2.3628 million tons, a decrease of 60,000 tons from the previous week and an increase of 4,800 tons compared to the same period last year. During the off - season demand period, pig iron output tends to decline, and the demand for raw materials is under pressure [3].

Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - Short-term domestic coal mine production has a slight recovery, and the Mongolian coal customs clearance volume has significantly rebounded; demand fluctuates slightly, and attention should be paid to the transmission of off-season pressure to the raw material end. Coking coal prices are still operating within the range of 1100 - 1300 yuan/ton [2] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Performance - Last week, the coking coal and coke market made up for the decline, and the futures prices fluctuated downward. The spot market remained stable and slightly strong, and steel mills in some regions accepted the fourth round of coking price increases [2] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply Side**: Last week, coal mine production in many places in Shanxi recovered, and there is still an expectation of increased production in the short term. The daily average output of clean coal was 75.7 tons, a week-on-week increase of 1.9 tons and a year-on-year decrease of 3.3 tons. From November 10th to 15th, the daily average customs clearance volume of Mongolian coal at the Ganqimaodu Port was 17.45 tons, a decrease of 2.07 tons compared with the previous week, but still at a relatively high level, and the port supervision area showed a trend of increased inventory [2] - **Demand Side**: The profits of steel mills continued to shrink, and the profitability rate dropped below 40%. The phased production restriction policy in the Tangshan area was lifted recently, which promoted the recovery of molten iron production. The daily average molten iron production last week rebounded to 236.88 tons, an increase of 2.66 tons compared with the previous week [2]