Group 1: Social Financing Scale - As of the end of October 2025, the total social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [1] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [1] - The balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy, converted to RMB, was 1.15 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year decline of 16.9% [1] Group 2: Structure of Financing - By the end of October, RMB loans accounted for 61% of the total social financing scale, down 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The proportion of government bonds increased by 2 percentage points to 21.3% year-on-year [2] - The share of corporate bonds decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 7.7% year-on-year [2] Group 3: Financing Increment - The cumulative increment of social financing for the first ten months of 2025 was 30.9 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.83 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 14.52 trillion yuan, which was a decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] - Government bonds net financing reached 11.95 trillion yuan, an increase of 3.72 trillion yuan year-on-year [3] Group 4: Monetary Supply - By the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [4] - The narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [4] - The cash in circulation (M0) reached 13.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [4] Group 5: Deposits - By the end of October, the total deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies amounted to 332.92 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 8.3% [5] - RMB deposits increased by 23.32 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [5] - Foreign currency deposits reached 1.04 trillion USD, marking a year-on-year growth of 24.3% [5] Group 6: Loans - By the end of October, the total loans in both domestic and foreign currencies were 274.54 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.3% [6] - RMB loans increased by 14.97 trillion yuan in the first ten months of 2025 [6] - Foreign currency loans decreased by 3% year-on-year, with an increase of 125 million USD in the first ten months [6] Group 7: Interbank Market - In October, the total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market reached 164.86 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 9.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.9% [7] - The weighted average interest rate for interbank lending was 1.39%, lower than the previous month and the same period last year [7] - The weighted average rate for pledged bond repos was 1.4%, also lower than the previous month and the same period last year [7] Group 8: Cross-Border RMB Settlement - In October, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 1.41 trillion yuan [8] - The direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amount was 0.65 trillion yuan [8] - The breakdown included 1.09 trillion yuan for goods trade and 0.32 trillion yuan for service trade [8]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai copper market is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct light - position trading with attention to controlling rhythm and trading risks [4][5] 3. Summary of Each Section 3.1. Weekly Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the Shanghai copper main contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly increase of 1.12% and an amplitude of 2.53%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 86,900 yuan/ton [4] - **International Situation**: The Fed's hawkish stance continues to send cautious signals. Daly said it's too early to say whether there will be a rate cut in December. Musalem believes that the policy is approaching neutrality and the easing space is limited [4] - **Domestic Situation**: As of the end of October 2025, the stock of social financing scale was 437.72 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.5%. The balance of broad - money (M2) was 335.13 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 8.2%. The balance of narrow - money (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 6.2% [4] - **Fundamentals**: Copper concentrate supply remains tight, and the smelting cost support logic still exists. The supply growth of refined copper has slowed down, and the demand is temporarily stable. Social inventory has decreased slightly [4] 3.2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contract**: As of November 14, 2025, the basis of the Shanghai copper main contract was 195 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 120 yuan/ton. The main contract price was 86,900 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 960 yuan/ton, and the position volume was 192,293 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 14,843 lots [10] - **Spot Price**: As of November 14, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 87,095 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 330 yuan/ton [13] - **Inter - month Spread**: As of November 14, 2025, the inter - month spread of the Shanghai copper main contract was - 80 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 40 yuan/ton [13] - **Premium and Position**: The Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 45 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net short position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 19,148 lots, an increase of 1,063 lots from last week [22] - **Option Market**: As of November 14, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 75th percentile of historical volatility. The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper option positions was 0.8142, a week - on - week increase of 0.0422 [27] 3.3. Upstream Situation - **Price and Processing Fee**: The copper concentrate price in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 77,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 590 yuan/ton. The southern rough copper processing fee was 1,300 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 100 yuan/ton [30] - **Import and Spread**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.5869 million tons, a decrease of 172,000 tons from August, a decline of 6.23%, and a year - on - year increase of 6.24%. The refined - scrap copper spread (tax - included) was 3,453.2 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 235.74 yuan/ton [36] - **Production and Inventory**: As of August 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.937 million tons, a decrease of 5,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.26%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 77.5%, a decrease of 0.4% from July. The inventory of copper concentrates at seven domestic ports was 498,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 37,000 tons [41] 3.4. Industry Situation - **Refined Copper Production**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.266 million tons, a decrease of 35,000 tons from August, a decline of 2.69%, and a year - on - year increase of 11.25%. As of August 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2.451 million tons, a decrease of 8,000 tons from July, a decline of 0.33%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 81%, a decrease of 0.5% from July [44] - **Refined Copper Import**: As of September 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 374,075.583 tons, an increase of 66,847.36 tons from August, an increase of 21.76%, and a year - on - year increase of 7.44%. The import profit and loss amount was 31.27 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 120.55 yuan/ton [50][51] - **Social Inventory**: The LME total inventory increased by 275 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 10,070 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 6,436 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 198,000 tons, a week - on - week decrease of 300 tons [54] 3.5. Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: As of September 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.232 million tons, an increase of 10,000 tons from August, an increase of 0.45%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 490,000 tons, an increase of 60,000 tons from August, an increase of 13.95%, and a year - on - year increase of 2.08% [60] - **Power Grid and Appliance**: As of September 2025, the cumulative investment completion of power and grid increased by 0.6% and 9.9% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by 5.6%, - 3%, - 2%, - 6.7%, and 3.9% year - on - year respectively [64] - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of October 2025, the cumulative investment completion of real estate development was 7.3563 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 14.7% and a month - on - month increase of 8.65%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 386.6 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 10.2% and a month - on - month increase of 1.23% [71] 3.6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of August 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 47,000 tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 256,500 tons [76][77]

Group 1: Financial Data Overview - As of the end of October, the total social financing scale reached 437.72 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.5%, which is 0.7 percentage points higher than the same period last year [3] - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, exceeding the same period last year by 3.83 trillion yuan [3] - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% year-on-year, while the narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [3] Group 2: Loan and Interest Rate Trends - The balance of RMB loans reached 270.61 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 6.5%, and an increase of 14.97 trillion yuan in loans during the first ten months [3] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in October was 3.1%, approximately 40 basis points lower than the same period last year, while the average interest rate for new personal housing loans was also 3.1%, about 8 basis points lower year-on-year [3] Group 3: Trade and Economic Development - In the first ten months of the year, Shanghai's import and export volume reached 3.7 trillion yuan, an increase of 5.2%, with exports amounting to 1.6 trillion yuan, up by 10.5% [7] - The Shanghai Free Trade Zone has implemented 80 reform measures for institutional openness, with 77 measures being replicated nationwide or in other free trade zones [9] - ASEAN has maintained its position as China's largest trading partner for agricultural and food products for eight consecutive years, with bilateral trade reaching 513 billion USD, a year-on-year increase of 8.9% [9] Group 4: Infrastructure and Technological Advancements - China completed water conservancy construction investments of 1,009.47 billion yuan in the first ten months, implementing 46,000 various water conservancy projects [10] - The first phase of 6G technology testing has been completed, with over 300 key technology reserves formed, and 57 tests conducted in five major technical directions [10]

Core Viewpoint - The central theme of the article is the analysis of China's financial data for October, highlighting the growth in M2 and social financing, which supports the economic recovery and provides a favorable monetary environment for growth [3]. Group 1: Social Financing and Loans - As of the end of October, the total social financing stock reached 437.72 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.5% [3]. - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 267.01 trillion yuan, increasing by 6.3% year-on-year, while foreign currency loans decreased by 16.9% [3]. - The cumulative increase in social financing for the first ten months was 30.9 trillion yuan, which is 3.83 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [5]. Group 2: Monetary Supply - The broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [6]. - Narrow money supply (M1) was 112 trillion yuan, growing by 6.2% year-on-year, while the currency in circulation (M0) reached 13.55 trillion yuan, up by 10.6% [6]. Group 3: Deposits - By the end of October, the total deposits in both domestic and foreign currencies amounted to 332.92 trillion yuan, with RMB deposits at 325.55 trillion yuan, reflecting an 8% year-on-year increase [7]. - The increase in RMB deposits for the first ten months was 23.32 trillion yuan, with household deposits rising by 11.39 trillion yuan [8]. Group 4: Interest Rates and Market Activity - In October, the weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.39%, which is lower than both the previous month and the same month last year [12]. - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market reached 164.86 trillion yuan, with a daily average transaction of 9.16 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.9% [12]. Group 5: Cross-Border Transactions - In October, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 1.41 trillion yuan, with direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amounting to 0.65 trillion yuan [13].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released the financial statistics report for October 2025, indicating significant growth in various monetary aggregates [1] Monetary Aggregates - As of the end of October, the broad money supply (M2) stood at 335.13 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.2% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) reached 112 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.55 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 10.6% [1] Cash Injection - In the first ten months of the year, a net cash injection of 728.4 billion yuan was recorded [1]

Market Performance - Treasury futures opened lower and experienced wide fluctuations, with the 30-year main contract down 0.14%, the 10-year main contract down 0.06%, the 5-year main contract down 0.03%, and the 2-year main contract unchanged [1] - Major interbank interest rate bond yields mostly rose, with the 10-year policy bank bond "25 Guokai 15" yield up 0.4 basis points to 1.9370%, the 10-year treasury bond "25附息国债11" yield up 0.45 basis points to 1.7570%, and the 30-year treasury bond "25超长特别国债02" yield up 0.25 basis points to 2.1075% [1] Funding Conditions - The central bank announced a fixed-rate, quantity tender operation of 43.5 billion yuan for a 7-day reverse repurchase on October 15, with an operation rate of 1.40% and a full bid amount of 43.5 billion yuan [2] - The interbank market continued to show ample liquidity, with overnight repurchase rates for deposit institutions stabilizing at a low level of 1.31% [2] - Long-term funding conditions indicated that the latest transaction for one-year interbank certificates of deposit was at 1.665%, showing little change from the previous day [2] Economic Fundamentals - China's September PPI decreased by 2.3% year-on-year, slightly better than the expected decline of 2.4%, and improved from a previous decline of 2.9% [3] - The September CPI fell by 0.3% year-on-year, worse than the expected decline of 0.1%, but improved from a previous decline of 0.4% [3] - The central bank reported that in the first three quarters of the year, new RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan, and RMB deposits increased by 22.71 trillion yuan [3] Operational Suggestions - The bond market is expected to continue fluctuating within a range, with the T2512 contract likely maintaining a range of 107.4 to 108.3 [4] - The current loose funding conditions and the normalization of the long-short interest rate spread may limit the extent of long bond declines [4] - The market remains cautious, influenced by risk preferences and institutional behaviors, with uncertainty regarding the bond market's recovery [4]

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China reported a year-on-year growth of 8.7% in the total social financing scale as of September 2025, reaching 437.08 trillion yuan [1] - The total increment of social financing for the first three quarters of 2025 was 30.09 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [3] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 8.4% year-on-year, with a balance of 335.38 trillion yuan as of September [4] Financing Structure - As of September, the balance of RMB loans to the real economy accounted for 61.1% of the total social financing scale, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The balance of foreign currency loans to the real economy represented 0.3% of the total, down 0.1 percentage points year-on-year [2] - The balance of government bonds increased by 20.2% year-on-year, reaching 92.55 trillion yuan [1] Loan and Deposit Trends - RMB loans increased by 14.75 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, with household loans rising by 1.1 trillion yuan [5] - The total balance of deposits in RMB and foreign currencies reached 332.18 trillion yuan, with RMB deposits growing by 8% year-on-year [4] - Foreign currency loans decreased by 5.3% year-on-year, with a balance of 554.4 billion USD as of September [6] Market Activity - The average weighted interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.45% in September, reflecting a month-on-month increase [7] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market for the first three quarters was 16.01 trillion yuan, with a daily average transaction volume of 85.6 billion yuan [7] Foreign Exchange and Cross-Border Transactions - The national foreign exchange reserves stood at 3.34 trillion USD as of September [8] - The cross-border RMB settlement amount under current accounts reached 13.06 trillion yuan in the first three quarters [9]

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China reported that the total social financing scale exceeded 30 trillion yuan in the first three quarters of the year, indicating a supportive monetary environment for economic recovery [1][3]. Financial Statistics - In the first three quarters, the total social financing increased by 4.42 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year, reaching 30.09 trillion yuan [1]. - The increase in RMB loans was 14.75 trillion yuan, while RMB deposits rose by 22.71 trillion yuan [1]. - As of the end of September, the year-on-year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.7%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year, and the M2 growth rate was 8.4%, up 1.5 percentage points [1]. Direct Financing Contribution - Government bonds and corporate bonds contributed over 40% of the new social financing, with net financing from government bonds at 11.46 trillion yuan, an increase of 4.28 trillion yuan year-on-year [3]. - Corporate bond financing also increased, with net financing reaching 1.57 trillion yuan, supported by favorable policies and low issuance rates [3]. - The share of RMB loans in the total social financing increment fell to 48%, indicating a shift towards more diversified financing channels [3]. Credit Growth and Structure - The growth rate of new RMB loans decreased to 6.6% by the end of September, but adjusted for local special bond replacements, the growth rate was approximately 7.7% [4]. - The balance of inclusive small and micro loans reached 36.09 trillion yuan, growing by 12.2%, while medium to long-term loans for manufacturing reached 15.02 trillion yuan, growing by 8.2% [5]. - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans was about 3.1%, down approximately 40 basis points year-on-year [5]. M1 Growth and Deposit Trends - The M1 growth rate reached 7.2% by the end of September, significantly up from the low of 0.1% earlier in the year [6]. - The narrowing gap between M1 and M2 reflects increased business activity and a recovery in personal consumption demand [6]. - The phenomenon of "deposit migration" indicates a reallocation of household assets in response to changing return rates across financial markets [7]. Economic Outlook - The monetary policy is expected to remain supportive of the real economy, with fiscal policies actively contributing to investment [7]. - The foundation for achieving the annual economic growth target of around 5% appears solid, supported by recent industry policy measures [7].

Core Insights - The People's Bank of China released financial statistics for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating significant growth in monetary aggregates [1] Monetary Statistics - As of the end of September, the broad money supply (M2) reached 335.38 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.4% [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 113.15 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 7.2% [1] - The currency in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.58 trillion yuan, showing a year-on-year growth of 11.5% [1] - A net cash injection of 761.9 billion yuan was recorded in the first three quarters [1]

Group 1: Monetary Statistics - As of the end of August, the broad money supply (M2) reached 331.98 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) stood at 111.23 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6% [1] - The cash in circulation (M0) amounted to 13.34 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 11.7% [1] - In the first eight months, a net cash injection of 520.8 billion yuan was recorded [1] Group 2: Loan Statistics - By the end of August, the total balance of RMB loans was 269.1 trillion yuan, marking a year-on-year increase of 6.8% [1] - In the first eight months, RMB loans increased by 13.46 trillion yuan [1] - Household loans rose by 711 billion yuan, with short-term loans decreasing by 372.5 billion yuan and medium to long-term loans increasing by 1.08 trillion yuan [1] - Corporate loans increased by 12.22 trillion yuan, with short-term loans up by 3.82 trillion yuan and medium to long-term loans up by 7.38 trillion yuan [1] Group 3: Deposit Statistics - The total balance of RMB deposits reached 322.73 trillion yuan, growing by 8.6% year-on-year [3] - In the first eight months, RMB deposits increased by 20.5 trillion yuan [3] - Household deposits rose by 9.77 trillion yuan, while non-financial enterprise deposits increased by 610.6 billion yuan [3] Group 4: Foreign Currency Statistics - As of the end of August, the foreign currency loan balance was 551.7 billion USD, down by 7.1% year-on-year [2] - The foreign currency deposit balance reached 1.02 trillion USD, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 19.4% [4] - In the first eight months, foreign currency loans increased by 9.6 billion USD [2] - Foreign currency deposits rose by 165.4 billion USD during the same period [4] Group 5: Interbank Market Activity - In August, the weighted average interest rate for interbank RMB market lending was 1.4%, lower by 0.05 percentage points from the previous month and 0.37 percentage points year-on-year [4] - The total transaction volume in the interbank RMB market reached 202.68 trillion yuan, with an average daily transaction of 9.65 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 16.8% [4] Group 6: Cross-Border RMB Settlement - In August, the cross-border RMB settlement amount under the current account was 1.47 trillion yuan, with goods trade accounting for 1.11 trillion yuan [5] - The direct investment cross-border RMB settlement amount was 0.61 trillion yuan, with outbound direct investment at 0.24 trillion yuan and foreign direct investment at 0.37 trillion yuan [5] Group 7: Social Financing Scale - As of the end of August, the total social financing scale was 433.66 trillion yuan, growing by 8.8% year-on-year [9] - The balance of RMB loans to the real economy was 265.42 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 6.6% [9] - The balance of government bonds reached 91.36 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 21.1% [9] Group 8: Social Financing Increment - In the first eight months, the cumulative increment of social financing was 26.56 trillion yuan, which is 4.66 trillion yuan more than the same period last year [11] - RMB loans to the real economy increased by 12.93 trillion yuan, which is a decrease of 4.85 trillion yuan compared to the previous year [11] - Government bond net financing was 10.27 trillion yuan, which is an increase of 4.63 trillion yuan year-on-year [11]