Group 1 - In May, the social financing scale increased by 2.29 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year increase of 224.7 billion yuan, and new RMB loans amounted to 620 billion yuan [1] - The broad money supply (M2) grew by 7.9% year-on-year, which is 0.9 percentage points higher than the same period last year, indicating a strong financial growth relative to nominal economic growth [1] - The narrow money supply (M1) increased by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in the growth of "liquid money," which is expected to boost market confidence and economic activities [1] Group 2 - The net financing of government bonds accelerated in May, reaching 1.46 trillion yuan, while local governments issued 443.2 billion yuan in new special bonds, marking a new high for the year [2] - The net financing of corporate bonds exceeded 140 billion yuan in May, with a decline in the average yield of AAA-rated corporate bonds, encouraging companies to increase bond financing [2] - Despite a lower scale of new RMB loans compared to the same period last year, the RMB loan balance grew by 7.1% year-on-year, indicating stable loan growth [2] Group 3 - In May, nearly 530 billion yuan in new RMB loans were issued to the corporate sector, supported by a recent interest rate cut that boosted loan demand [3] - The residential sector saw an increase of nearly 54 billion yuan in new RMB loans, reflecting a recovery in the local real estate market [3] - The increased financing through government and corporate bonds is expected to substitute for bank loans, as local governments prefer using special bonds for project funding [3]

从M1同比增长2.3%来看,意味着活钱增速加快,虽仍处低位,但已显现积极信号,这反映出企业短期交易活 动回暖。不过,东融助贷发现,M1-M2剪刀差仍达5.6个百分点,显示资金活化程度尚未根本改善,实体经济 现金流仍有待进一步疏通。 来看具体贷款数据:5月人民币贷款余额同比增长7.1%,新增贷款6200亿元。信贷余额同比增长 7.1%,增速 环比上月下降 0.1 个百分点。此外,居民消费信贷需求走弱。5月住户短期贷款同比少增420亿元,耐用品 消费出现"政策依赖症"。 近日,中国人民银行发布5月金融数据。2025 年5月末,广义货币(M2)余额325.78万亿元,同比增长7.9%;狭 义货币(M1)余额108.91万亿元,同比增长2.3%。社会融资规模存量为426.16万亿元,同比增长8.7%。东融 助贷了解到,1-5月,社会融资规模增量为18.63万亿元,同比多增3.83万亿元。5月,社会融资规模增量为2.29 万亿元,同比多增2247亿元。 业内人士分析称,当前经济处于新旧动能转换关键期,货币政策与财政政策需从"量"的配合转向"机制"的 融合。不少专家预测,三季度,随着设备更新改造贷款贴息政策全面落地,制造 ...

Core Viewpoint - The latest data from the People's Bank of China indicates a rise in non-financial institution deposits (payment institution reserve funds) to 24,931.1 billion yuan as of May 2025, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 357.56 billion yuan, driven by seasonal consumption trends and payment service enhancements [1][3]. Group 1: Payment Institution Reserve Funds - As of May 2025, the reserve funds for payment institutions reached 24,931.1 billion yuan, up from 24,573.54 billion yuan in April 2025, marking an increase of 357.56 billion yuan [1]. - The peak for payment institution reserve funds occurred in January 2025, surpassing 30,000 billion yuan, reaching a historical high of 30,909.63 billion yuan due to factors like the Spring Festival [2]. - After the January peak, reserve funds fell below 24,000 billion yuan in February and March 2025, but showed a recovery in April and May, stabilizing around 25,000 billion yuan [3]. Group 2: Economic and Regulatory Factors - The increase in reserve funds in May is attributed to seasonal consumption during holidays and the optimization of payment services, reflecting a positive economic outlook [3]. - Analysts suggest that the growth in reserve funds correlates with the increase in M1 money supply, indicating heightened market transaction activity since reserve funds were included in M1 statistics from January 2025 [3]. - The payment institution reserve funds exhibit clear cyclical fluctuations, influenced by seasonal consumer demand and regulatory pressures, with a trend towards normalization in growth due to stricter compliance requirements [4]. Group 3: Future Outlook - Short-term factors such as consumption promotions are expected to significantly impact reserve fund levels, while long-term projections suggest that reserve funds will stabilize around 25,000 billion yuan due to high mobile payment penetration [4]. - The potential for growth in niche areas like cross-border payments and B2B payments may provide additional increments to reserve funds in the future [4]. - Payment institutions are encouraged to enhance compliance with reserve fund management while focusing on consumer-driven policies to improve service quality [5].

《中国人民银行财政部关于废止〈凭证式国债质押贷款办法〉的决定》已经2025年4月10日中国人民银 行2025年第7次行务会议审议通过，并经财政部同意，现予公布，自公布之日起施行。 【多家银行新增服务收费应对净息差压力】 在净息差持续承压的背景下，多家银行近期宣布新增服务收费项目。据智通财经报道，乌海银行自6月 13日起对资信业务和银团贷款业务收费，苏州银行新增尊行卡年费，其他地方银行如庆阳农商银行和庐 江农商银行也调整了部分金融服务收费。国有大行如中国银行也上调了信用卡结算服务费用。业内人士 表示，此举是银行在低利率环境下寻求"降本增收"的必要措施。尽管银行积极响应"减费让利"号召，但 依法合规收费也是其收入来源的一部分。 【严禁送实物发加息券，银行揽储合规闸门收紧】 为整治银行"花式"揽储行为，地方监管部门出台多项禁止性规定，明确禁止手工补息、发放加息券、赠 送实物及与互联网平台合作发福利等违规行为，并要求相关存量业务在2025年底前稳妥退出。此举旨在 维护存款市场竞争秩序，降低银行负债成本，防范系统性金融风险。专家指出，此次监管升级体现了更 强的执行力和协同性，银行应通过提升服务质量和产品创新来增强竞争力 ...

周五（6 月 13 日），美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌 1.79%，标普 500 指数跌 1.13%，纳指跌 1.3%。万得美 国科技七巨头指数跌 1.02%，英伟达跌超 2%，脸书跌逾 1%。中概股普遍下跌，文远知行跌近 8%。 新闻精要 | 1. 用中长期规划指导经济社会发展是我们党治国理政 | | --- | | 的一种重要方式 | 2. 国常会：部署中国(上海)自由贸易试验区试点措施 复制推广工作 3. 央行发布 5 月金融数据 国内市场综述 低开低走 弱势整理 周五（6 月 13 日）大盘低开低走，弱势整理。截至收 盘，上证综指收于 3377 点，下跌 0.75%；深成指收于 10122.11 点，下跌 1.1%；科创 50 下跌 0.51%；创业 板指下跌 1.13%，万得全 A 成交额共 15040 亿元，较 前一日有所上升。 行业方面，30 个中信一级行业有 4 个行业收涨，其中 石油石化、国防军工、电力及公用事业涨幅居前，而 综合金融、传媒及纺织服装则跌幅较大。概念方面， 油气开采、天然气及航运精选等指数表现活跃。 海外市场综述 美国三大股指全线收跌，大型科技股普跌 风险提示 1.稳增长力度 ...

张广硕 投资咨询从业资格号：Z0020198 zhangguangshuo@gtht.com 【基本面跟踪】 商 品 研 究 2025 年 6 月 16 日 铁矿石：预期反复，区间震荡 铁矿石基本面数据 | | | | 昨日收盘价(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | 涨跌幅 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 期货 | | | 703. 0 | -1.0 | -0. 14% | | | 12509 | | | 昨日持仓(手) | 持仓变动(手) | | | | | | 695. 640 | -21, 059 | | | | | 昨日价格(元/吨) | 前日价格(元/吨) | 涨跌(元/吨) | | | 进口矿 | 卡粉（65%） | 816. 0 | 817.0 | -1.0 | | | | PB (61.5%) | 719. 0 | 722.0 | -3.0 | | 现货价格 | | 金布巴(61%) | 671.0 | 672. 0 | -1.0 | | | | 超特 (56.5%) | 613. 0 | 616. 0 | -3.0 | | | 国产矿 | 郎 ...

（*数据来源：Wind-央行动态PBOC） // 债市综述 // 1. 公开市场操作 央行公告称，6月13日以固定利率、数量招标方式开展了2025亿元7天期逆回购操作，操作利率1.40%，投标量2025亿元，中标量2025亿元。Wind数据显 示，当日1350亿元逆回购到期，据此计算，单日净投放675亿元。 2. 资金面 税期即将到来之际，存款类机构隔夜质押式回购利率上行近4个bp，目前位于1.41%附近，七天质押式回购利率则下行近4个bp。 海外方面，最新美国隔夜融资担保利率为4.28%。 （IMM） （*数据来源：Wind-国际货币资金情绪指数、资金综合屏） 3. 同业存单 全国和主要股份制银行一年期同业存单最新成交在1.67%附近，较上日变化不大。 （*数据来源：Wind-同业存单-发行结果） 4. 银行间主要利率债收益率多数下行，短券表现略好。 | | 1Y | | 2Y | | ЗУ | | 54 | | 7Y | | 10Y | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 国 ...

Group 1: Monetary Supply and Credit Conditions - In May, the broad money supply (M2) increased by 7.9% year-on-year, a slight decrease of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [2][3] - The narrow money supply (M1) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, with an increase of 0.8 percentage points compared to the end of the previous month [3] - New RMB loans in May amounted to 620 billion yuan, a decrease of 330 billion yuan year-on-year, while the social financing scale increased by 22.894 billion yuan, up by 2.271 billion yuan year-on-year [2][10] Group 2: Economic Activity and Investment - The increase in M1 indicates a significant acceleration in "active money," suggesting a recovery in investment and consumption activities [3][5] - The government bond issuance has accelerated, which is the primary driver for the rapid growth of social financing scale [11] - The total social financing scale at the end of May was 426.16 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 8.7% [10] Group 3: Loan Dynamics and Sector Performance - Corporate loans increased by 530 billion yuan in May, but this was a decrease of 210 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating a continued impact from local government debt replacement [7][9] - Retail loans showed signs of improvement, although overall demand remains weak, with a year-on-year decrease of 217 billion yuan in residential loans [9] - The issuance of special refinancing bonds has been significant, with over 1.6 trillion yuan issued this year to support debt replacement [7][11]

Financial Overview - In May, the total financial volume in China showed reasonable growth, with the social financing scale maintaining a high growth rate, providing strong support for the real economy [1][7] - The broad money supply (M2) reached approximately 326 trillion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 7.9% [1] - The stock of social financing was about 426 trillion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.7% [1] Government Bond Issuance - The acceleration of government bond issuance is identified as the primary driver for the rapid growth of social financing [1] - In the first quarter, the net financing scale exceeded 3.8 trillion yuan, with local special bond issuance also showing signs of acceleration, reaching a monthly issuance high for the year [1] Corporate Bond Financing - Corporate bond financing increased, with net financing exceeding 140 billion yuan in May [2] - The overall cost of corporate bond issuance has been declining, encouraging companies to increase bond financing under a low-interest-rate environment [2] M1 Growth and Economic Activity - The growth rate of M1, which includes more liquid forms of money, has significantly accelerated, indicating a recovery in investment and consumption activities [2][4] - Recent financial support measures have effectively boosted market confidence, leading to signs of economic activity recovery [4] Loan Growth and Interest Rates - RMB loans maintained steady growth in May, with average interest rates at historical lows; corporate loans averaged 3.2%, down 50 basis points year-on-year, while personal housing loans averaged 3.1%, down about 55 basis points [5] - The increase in personal mortgage loans is attributed to a recovering real estate market and policies promoting durable goods consumption [5] Future Financial Outlook - Experts anticipate that financial volume growth will remain stable in the coming period, supported by more proactive fiscal policies and a resilient economic development [7] - Historical trends suggest that June typically sees increased economic activity and financing demand [7]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that China's financial metrics are showing reasonable growth, supporting the real economy effectively, with social financing scale increasing by 8.7% year-on-year as of the end of May [1] - The narrow money supply (M_1) grew by 2.3% year-on-year, reflecting a significant acceleration in growth, which suggests that recent financial support measures have positively impacted market confidence and economic activities [1][2] - In May, the incremental social financing scale reached 2.29 trillion yuan, which is 224.7 billion yuan more than the previous year, driven mainly by government and corporate bond issuances [2] Group 2 - The issuance of special refinancing bonds to replace hidden debts has been significant, with the net financing scale exceeding 3.8 trillion yuan in the first quarter, marking an increase of 2.5 trillion yuan compared to the same period last year [2] - The average interest rate for newly issued corporate loans in May was approximately 3.2%, which is about 50 basis points lower than the same period last year, indicating a favorable borrowing environment for businesses [2] - The growth in personal loans is also indicative of increased economic activity, with a rise in mortgage loans due to a recovering real estate market and a boost in consumer loans driven by promotional activities [3] Group 3 - The external environment has marginally influenced the credit situation, with foreign trade enterprises responding to tariff impacts by diversifying, leading to increased credit demand [3] - The financial total growth is expected to remain stable, supported by proactive fiscal policies and effective financial measures that have bolstered market confidence [4] - The social financing scale, which encompasses direct financing, is seen as a more comprehensive measure of financial support compared to traditional loan metrics, reflecting the evolving financing landscape [3]