行业报告 | 行业研究周报 农林牧渔 证券研究报告 2025 年第 39 周周报：行业养殖进入亏损，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1、生猪板块：行业养殖进入亏损，重视生猪板块预期差！ 1）本周猪价加速下跌&外销仔猪亏损加大。截至 9 月 27 日，全国生猪均价 12.76 元/kg，较上 周末-1.39%（智农通），行业自繁自养亏损为 54 元/头；本周 7kg 仔猪价格为 236 元/头，头均 亏损约 54 元/头。供应端，本周出栏均重为 128.55kg（环比+0.10kg），近五年历史同期最高， 其中散户出栏均重 143.92kg（年内高位，已接近 24 年 12 月水平），需求端，周内多地气温下 降，其次价格持续走弱，屠企分割利润增加，再者前期国储交货时间临近；所以本周屠宰样本 日均宰杀量环比+1.80%。当前出栏均重仍处于历史同期高位，猪价继续承压运行，行业已进入 亏损状态，政策引导减产&供强需弱情况下，后续产能有望去化。2）重视生猪板块空间！重 视优秀企业的盈利能力！在 25 年猪价持续低位&政策引导情况下，后续产能有望去化。从 2025 年头均市值看，其中牧原股份 3300-4000 元/头，温氏股份、 ...

Industry Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the agricultural sector [1] Core Insights - Global food prices showed structural increases in August 2025, with marginal declines in grain and dairy prices. The FAO reported an average global food price index of 130.1, remaining stable month-on-month but up 6.9% year-on-year [2][8] - Domestic grain prices are influenced by the new crop listings, with wheat and corn being closely monitored. The soybean market is affected by trade relations and biofuel policies [3] Summary by Sections Global Grain Price Analysis - The global grain price index averaged 105.6 in August 2025, down 0.8% month-on-month and 4.5% year-on-year, indicating ample supply and weak import sentiment [10] - The global corn price has risen for three consecutive months due to adverse weather affecting EU corn yields and increased demand for animal feed and ethanol processing in the US [10] Domestic Grain Price Analysis - The new season's wheat production is expected to be lower than anticipated, maintaining a supply surplus. The actual sowing area for winter wheat in 2025 is 33.9 million acres, a slight increase from the previous year [5][19] - The domestic corn market is projected to strengthen in the second half of 2025, with new corn listings expected to impact prices significantly [34][46] Investment Recommendations - Focus on seed companies due to their correlation with grain prices, with recommendations for companies like Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Qianyuan High-Tech. The seed sector is currently at a low profitability point, awaiting a cyclical rebound [4] - In the grain and oil sector, attention should be paid to tariff price transmission for high-import-dependent varieties, with recommendations for companies like Suqian Agricultural Development and Beidahuang [4] - The agricultural water conservancy sector is expected to benefit from significant construction funding, with a recommendation for Dayu Water-saving [4] Supply and Demand Analysis - For wheat, the global production forecast for 2025/26 is 816 million tons, with a consumption increase of 11.4 million tons. The ending stock is projected at 264 million tons, reflecting a slight increase from the previous year [11] - The global corn production forecast for 2025/26 is 1.287 billion tons, with consumption rising by 31.4 million tons. The ending stock is expected to decrease to 281 million tons [11] - The global rice production is estimated at 541 million tons for 2025/26, with a consumption increase of 9.81 million tons, leading to a slight decrease in ending stocks [11] Domestic Supply and Demand Analysis - Domestic wheat production for 2025/26 is forecasted at 141.29 million tons, with a consumption increase of 2.4%. The import volume is expected to decrease significantly [20][23] - Domestic corn production is projected at 296.16 million tons, with consumption remaining stable. The import volume is expected to stay low, reflecting a tightening supply-demand balance [34][37] - Domestic rice production is expected to reach 208.58 million tons, with a slight increase in consumption. The rice market is projected to face downward pressure due to oversupply and changing consumption patterns [51][55]

Core Viewpoint - The 17th China International Seed Industry Expo and the 22nd National Seed Information Exchange and Product Trading Conference will be held from September 26 to 28, 2025, in Qingdao, focusing on technological advancements and revitalization of the seed industry to ensure food security [1]. Event Overview - The theme of the conference is "Strengthening Technology for Increased Production, Revitalizing the Seed Industry for Food Security" [1]. - The event aims to gather industry forces and create a platform for policy promotion, innovation results connection, and core display of seed industry revitalization [1]. Agenda Highlights - Various sessions will cover topics such as variety management, crop genetic resource information, seed market regulation, and enterprise information releases [4][5][6]. - Activities include investment matchmaking, online seed sales, and technology achievement exchanges to enhance industry collaboration and innovation [5][6][7]. Industry Exchange Activities - A series of discussions will focus on biobreeding industrialization, seed station management, and vegetable breeding advancements [8][9][10]. - The event will also feature a digital seed industry exchange, emphasizing the integration of biotechnology and AI in breeding solutions [14]. Promotion and Awareness Activities - Legal awareness campaigns will provide free consultations on new variety protection and seed certification [15]. - Tasting events will promote high-quality agricultural products, enhancing consumer awareness and appreciation [17]. Exhibition Details - The expo will showcase significant achievements in breeding, seed certification, and superior cultivation techniques across various crop categories [21].

Investment Rating - Industry Rating: Outperform the market (maintained rating) [9] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of the pig sector, highlighting the expected decline in production capacity due to policy guidance amid strong supply and weak demand conditions [1][2][13] - The dairy and beef sectors are noted for potential recovery, with the beef super cycle possibly starting, and the report suggests focusing on companies with mother cow resources or those adopting a "milk-meat linkage" model [3][15] - The pet sector is experiencing rapid growth of domestic brands and a positive trend in pet food exports, indicating a robust pet economy [3][16] - The poultry sector is advised to focus on the white chicken breeding gap and the marginal improvement in demand for yellow chickens, with recommendations for specific companies [4][17][19] - The planting sector is encouraged to wait for a turnaround in conventional seed industries while emphasizing opportunities in biological breeding [5][21] - The feed sector highlights Hai Da Group as a key recommendation due to its market share increase and consistent performance [6][23] Summary by Sections Pig Sector - Current pig prices are under pressure, with an average price of 13.50 CNY/kg, down 2.67% from the previous week, and the industry is facing a narrowing profit margin [1][13] - The report suggests focusing on undervalued companies with strong profitability, with specific recommendations for leading firms like Muyuan Foods and Wens Foodstuffs [2][14] Beef Sector - The report indicates that the dairy cow capacity reduction is nearing its end, with potential price recovery for raw milk and beef [3][15] - Recommended companies include Youran Dairy and China Shengmu Organic Milk [3][15] Pet Sector - The domestic pet economy is thriving, with significant growth in sales and exports of pet food [3][16] - Key recommendations include Guibao Pet Food and Zhongchong Co., Ltd. [3][16] Poultry Sector - The report highlights the need to focus on the breeding gap for white chickens and the improving demand for yellow chickens [4][17][19] - Recommended companies include Shengnong Development and Lihua Stock [4][17][19] Planting Sector - The report emphasizes the importance of improving yield through advanced breeding techniques and the integration of agricultural practices [5][21] - Key recommendations include Longping High-tech and Dabeinong Technology Group [5][21][22] Feed Sector - Hai Da Group is highlighted as a key player in the feed sector, with expectations of market recovery and increased market share [6][23]

Core Insights - The article discusses the successful development of a new hybrid corn male sterility breeding technology, known as "nuclear sterility breeding technology," which has been under research for 15 years and is now ready for industrial application [1][2] Group 1: Technology Overview - The nuclear sterility breeding technology integrates transgenic maintainer lines, seed grading devices, and marker screening methods to achieve efficient propagation of male sterile lines and high-purity production of hybrid seeds [1] - This technology addresses the long-standing challenges in hybrid corn seed production, such as reliance on manual or mechanical detasseling, by enabling the use of male sterile lines to reduce production costs and enhance seed purity [1][2] Group 2: Implementation and Results - Since 2022, trials of the nuclear sterility breeding technology have been conducted in multiple regions, including Hainan, Gansu, Xinjiang, Shanxi, and Jilin, demonstrating significant industrial advantages [2] - The technology has shown to increase yields by over 10% in male sterile seed production bases compared to traditional manual detasseling methods under the same cultivation management conditions [2] Group 3: Commercialization Efforts - Sichuan Tianneng Jingxiu Biotechnology Co., Ltd. has been authorized by China Agricultural University to develop the nuclear sterility breeding technology for commercialization [2] - The company has collaborated with Chengdu Hancheng Guangyi Technology Co., Ltd. to develop an intelligent impurity removal machine that enhances impurity removal efficiency by accurately locating and cutting out undesirable plants [2] Group 4: Competitive Advantage - The nuclear sterility breeding technology is positioned as a core component in utilizing hybrid advantages, providing a significant competitive edge that will contribute to the advancement of China's biotechnology breeding industry [2]

Core Viewpoint - Hybrid rice technology offers new solutions for food security in developing countries, being more efficient and environmentally friendly compared to food trade [1] Group 1: Company Overview - Longping High-Tech, founded in 1999 and listed in 2000, is a modern seed industry group initiated by Yuan Longping, known as the "father of hybrid rice" [2] - The company is a leading integrated seed enterprise in China, focusing on hybrid rice, corn, wheat, and various specialty crops [6] - Longping High-Tech has a significant market presence, with 46 rice varieties covering 20.625 million acres, and it ranks among the top in national promotion areas for rice, corn, and wheat [6] Group 2: Technological Innovation - The company emphasizes the importance of research and development, maintaining around 10% of its revenue for R&D, and has established a commercial breeding system [7] - Longping High-Tech is actively involved in the internationalization of its business, particularly through the establishment of Longping Brazil, which enhances access to diverse maize germplasm resources [10][11] Group 3: Global Impact and Collaboration - The company has conducted over 260 training sessions in more than 100 countries, training over 11,000 technicians and officials to boost food production in Belt and Road Initiative countries [9] - Longping High-Tech's hybrid rice technology has been instrumental in supporting food security in developing nations, providing local seed varieties that are more suited to regional conditions [14] Group 4: Future Prospects - The company aims to strengthen R&D investments and global partnerships to enhance food production quality and quantity [13] - Longping High-Tech's approach of combining "good seeds + good methods" is seen as a sustainable solution for global food security challenges, particularly in regions with limited access to affordable food [14]

Core Viewpoint - The agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery industry in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange shows a robust development trend, with significant profit growth expected for major companies in the sector in the first half of 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: Industry Performance - A total of 35 companies in the agricultural, forestry, animal husbandry, and fishery sector have disclosed their performance forecasts, expecting a combined net profit of between 15.4 billion to 16.8 billion yuan [1]. - The leading companies, including Muyuan Foods, New Hope Liuhe, and Fujian Shengnong Development, are key contributors to the industry's growth [1]. Group 2: Company Highlights - Muyuan Foods is projected to achieve a net profit of 10.2 billion to 10.7 billion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 1129.97% to 1190.26% [2]. - New Hope Liuhe expects a net profit of 680 million to 780 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 155.85% to 164.07% [2]. - Fujian Shengnong Development anticipates a net profit of 850 million to 950 million yuan, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 732.89% to 830.88% [2]. Group 3: Growth Drivers - Muyuan Foods attributes its profit increase to a rise in pig sales and a decrease in breeding costs, with the cost per kilogram dropping from 13.1 yuan to below 12.1 yuan [2]. - New Hope Liuhe's recovery is linked to successful biosecurity upgrades and improved production management, leading to reduced breeding costs despite lower average pig prices [3]. - Shengnong Development's growth is driven by a multi-channel strategy, cost advantages, and significant investment income from acquisitions [3][4]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Analysts are optimistic about the livestock industry's recovery, citing improved profitability and cost control among leading companies [5]. - The outlook for the domestic beef cycle is expected to turn positive in 2025, with a slight increase in pig output and stable prices anticipated [6]. - Companies are focusing on cost reduction and efficiency improvements to align with industry trends and support sustained growth [6].

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes the importance of "self-controllable seed sources" in the context of ongoing US-China trade negotiations, particularly focusing on agricultural imports such as soybeans, corn, and wheat [4][3] - The gap in corn yield between China and the US is widening, which may accelerate the domestic biotechnology breeding industry [5] - The transition of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) into large-scale demonstration phases is highlighted, with significant policy support for the industrialization of biological breeding [6] Summary by Sections Trade and Agricultural Imports - In 2024, China is projected to import 22.13 million tons of soybeans, 2.07 million tons of corn, and 1.90 million tons of wheat from the US, accounting for 44.1%, 3.6%, and 9.0% of US exports respectively [4] - The report suggests that grain trade will be a critical area in the short term for negotiations with the US [4] Yield Disparity and Biotechnology - The US corn yield has reached 766 kg/mu by 2024, with a GMO penetration rate exceeding 90%, while China's corn yield is only 439 kg/mu, resulting in a yield gap of 327 kg/mu [5] - The report identifies the promotion of biotechnology breeding as a key factor contributing to this yield disparity [5] Policy and Market Developments - The central government's focus on biological breeding has been consistent for five years, shifting from research to application, with plans to accelerate the industrialization of biological breeding from 2024 to 2035 [6] - By 2024, GMO grain industrialization will transition from a trial phase to large-scale demonstration in eight provinces, with further expansion planned by 2025 [6] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends investing in leading companies in the biotechnology sector, including Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Quanyin High-Tech, while also suggesting to pay attention to Fengle Seed Industry and Denghai Seed Industry [6]

Investment Rating - Industry rating is maintained at "Outperform the Market" [8] Core Insights - The report emphasizes the importance of "self-controllable seed sources" in the context of ongoing US-China trade negotiations, particularly focusing on agricultural imports such as soybeans, corn, and wheat [4][3] - The gap in corn yield between China and the US is widening, which may accelerate the domestic biotechnology breeding industry [5] - The transition of genetically modified organisms (GMOs) into large-scale demonstration phases is highlighted, with significant policy support for the industrialization of biological breeding [6] Summary by Sections Trade and Agricultural Imports - In 2024, China is projected to import 22.13 million tons of soybeans, 2.07 million tons of corn, and 1.90 million tons of wheat from the US, accounting for 44.1%, 3.6%, and 9.0% of US exports respectively [4] - Short-term agricultural trade is expected to be a key area in US-China negotiations [4] Domestic Yield and Biotechnology - The yield of corn in the US is expected to reach 766 kg/mu by 2024, while China's yield is only 439 kg/mu, resulting in a yield gap of 327 kg/mu [5] - The report identifies the promotion of biotechnology breeding as a critical factor contributing to the widening yield gap [5] Policy and Market Developments - The central government's focus on the industrialization of biological breeding has been consistent for five years, with a shift from research to application [6] - By 2024, the domestic GMO grain industry will transition from a trial phase to large-scale demonstration, with several provinces allowing GMO planting [6] - The report recommends key companies such as Longping High-Tech, Dabeinong, and Quanyin High-Tech for investment, highlighting their competitive advantages in the GMO sector [6]

Group 1: Banking Sector - The banking sector is expected to see a performance turning point due to the accumulation of positive fundamental factors [3] - The People's Bank of China announced a 1 trillion yuan reverse repurchase operation to maintain liquidity, which helps banks manage the pressure from maturing interbank certificates of deposit and lower deposit rates [3] - Enhanced transparency in monetary policy and the expansion of ETFs are expected to bring continuous incremental funds to the banking sector, aiding in valuation reconstruction [3][4] Group 2: Seed Industry - The seed industry is receiving favorable policies, with a focus on strengthening technological innovation and commercial development in aquaculture seed industry during the 14th Five-Year Plan [7] - The Ministry of Agriculture has implemented measures to combat counterfeit and substandard seeds, which will help purify the seed market and ensure agricultural production safety [9] - The emphasis on food security highlights the importance of biological breeding as a means to increase yield and efficiency, accelerating the industrialization process [9]