Gold Technical AnalysisThe $4,200 level in the gold market looks like it is going to continue to offer support, and it is worth noting that we initially tried to rally a bit and then fall apart. All things being equal, this is a market that I think continues to see a lot of back-and-forth action, perhaps a little bit of sideways action. We’ll just have to wait and see. But this is a market that I think is hanging around $4,200 and $4,400. But if we break down below $4,200, then we could see a market drop do ...

Core Viewpoint - The international spot silver price has surged significantly this year, surpassing $50 per ounce, primarily due to severe liquidity constraints in the London silver market [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The London silver inventory has decreased by approximately one-third since mid-2021, with a substantial portion held by exchange-traded funds (ETFs) [1] - The market's freely available silver inventory has plummeted by about 75% compared to 2019 [1] - Many traders who previously bet on falling silver prices were forced to cover their short positions at higher prices, leading to a surge in silver buying [1] Group 2: Demand Drivers - Analysts highlight that silver possesses both store of value and industrial utility, with the industrial sector expected to be the largest source of silver demand [1] - The solar energy industry is specifically noted as a significant driver of silver demand growth, reflecting the increasing importance of renewable energy [1] Group 3: Future Outlook - Goldman Sachs indicates that while the recent liquidity tightening has driven silver prices up, this situation is expected to be temporary [1] - Unlike gold, silver lacks strong support from central bank demand, resulting in higher volatility and downside price risks compared to gold [1]

Core Viewpoint - ANZ Bank predicts that spot gold prices will rise to $4,400 by the end of 2025 and reach a peak of $4,600 by June 2026, with lower growth expected in the second half of 2026 as the Federal Reserve ends its easing cycle [1] Group 1: Gold Price Forecast - By the end of 2025, spot gold is expected to reach $4,400 [1] - A peak price of $4,600 for gold is anticipated by June 2026 [1] - Concerns over the Federal Reserve's independence, political uncertainty, trade issues, geopolitical tensions, and rising debt will sustain strategic investment interest in gold [1] Group 2: Silver Price Forecast - Spot silver is projected to reach a peak of $57.50 by June 2026 [1] Group 3: Risks and Considerations - The Federal Reserve's hawkish stance and stronger-than-expected U.S. economic growth may pose downside risks to gold prices [1]

Core Insights - The most actively traded December 2025 gold futures on the New York Commodity Exchange rose by $26.6 to close at $4159.6 per ounce, marking a 0.64% increase [1] - December gold futures reached a historical high of $4190.90 per ounce overnight, while December silver futures hit a record high of $52.495 per ounce, although both closed significantly lower than their overnight peaks [1] - Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that the Fed will adjust interest rate policies based on economic outlook and risk balance rather than a predetermined path, with expectations of a 25 basis point rate cut later this month and another in December [1] - Despite recent consolidation risks for gold and silver, Bank of America maintains that both will continue their upward trend, forecasting prices of $5000 per ounce for gold and $65 for silver next year [1] - Technically, December gold futures show strong bullish momentum, with the next target being a breakout above the solid resistance level of $4300, while bears aim for a drop below the strong support level of $3900 [1] - December silver futures fell by 8.4 cents to close at $50.345 per ounce, reflecting a 0.17% decrease [1]

来源：白银网 •白银价格连续第三天走高，并在周五触及多年新高。 今日沪银主力合约涨2.36%，报10035元/千克。 白银网 从技术角度来看，白银目前位于本月迄今的上升趋势通道顶部边界附近。持续强劲将标志着一个新的突破，并为最近建立的上升轨迹的 延伸奠定了基础。然而，日相对强弱指标（RSI）略有超买，因此在为进一步上涨进行仓位之前，应谨慎等待一些近期盘整。 尽管如此，白银仍有望连续第四周上涨，并进一步攀升，以测试42.65美元附近的下一个相关障碍。这一势头可能会进一步延伸至43.00美 元的整数关口，并达到2011年9月触及的波动高点，即约43.40美元的区域。 另一方面，亚洲市场低点位于41.40美元附近，现在似乎保护了近期的下行空间。任何随后的下滑都可能被视为买入机会，这应该有助于 限制白银在41.00美元附近的下行空间。41.00美元是关键支撑汇合，包括上述通道的底部和200小时线，预计将成为白银价格的短期底 部。 然而，如果跌破该水平，可能会引发一些技术性抛售，并将银价拖至40.55-40.50美元的支撑区域。在最终跌至39.00美元左右之前，白银 可能进一步向40美元的心理关口走弱。 白银小时图 • ...

Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Precious Metals Data Daily Report [4] - Date: August 11, 2025 [5] - Author: Baishuna from the Macro - Financial Research Center of Guomao Futures Research Institute [5] Group 2: Price and Position Data Price Data - On August 8, 2025, COMEX silver was at $3394.74, London gold spot at $787.80, London silver spot at $38.57, COMEX gold at $9278.00, AG (T + D) at $783.43, AU (T + D) at $9238.00, AU2510 at $3499.20, and AG2510 at $38.30. Compared with August 7, the price increases were 0.2%, 0.5%, 1.2%, 0.6%, 0.2%, 0.4%, 0.2%, and 0.3% respectively [5]. - The price differences and their increases or decreases between different markets and varieties are also presented, such as the gold internal - external market (TD - London) spread, COMEX gold - silver ratio, etc. For example, the gold internal - external market (TD - London) spread on August 8 was - 4.37 yuan/gram, with a 5.1% increase from the previous day [5]. Position Data - COMEX gold and silver non - commercial long and short positions, gold and silver ETF holdings, and their changes are provided. For example, COMEX gold non - commercial long positions on August 8 were 237050, a - 11.50% change from the previous day [5]. Group 3: Inventory and Market Index Data Inventory Data - COMEX and SHFE gold and silver inventories and their changes are given. For example, COMEX silver inventory on August 8 was 506492427 troy ounces, a - 0.22% change from the previous day [5]. Market Index Data - Data on US Treasury yields, the US dollar/Chinese yuan exchange rate, the S&P 500, NYMEX crude oil, the US dollar index, and VIX are presented, along with their changes. For example, the 2 - year US Treasury yield on August 8 was 7.14, a - 8.57% change from the previous day [5]. Group 4: Market News - US President Trump announced on August 8 that he will meet with Russian President Putin in Alaska on August 15, stating that the Ukraine situation may be resolved soon [5]. - Trump nominated Stephen Milan as a Federal Reserve governor, and the St. Louis Fed President supported the decision to keep interest rates unchanged last week [5]. - The US Customs and Border Protection initially ruled that 1 - kilogram and 100 - ounce gold bars should be taxed, but the Trump administration will issue a new policy clarifying that gold bar imports should not be taxed [5]. - The Israeli government approved a plan to occupy the Gaza Strip after a 10 - hour discussion [5]. Group 5: Market Analysis Short - term Logic - On August 8, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures rose 0.56% to 787.8 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures rose 0.84% to 9278 yuan/kilogram [5]. - Short - term factors affecting precious metal prices include potential additional US tariffs on countries buying Russian oil, nominations of Federal Reserve officials, China's central bank's continuous gold purchases for 9 months, upcoming US - Russia leader meetings, and the clarification of gold bar import tariffs. The short - term upward momentum of gold prices may be limited, but the Fed's high probability of cutting interest rates in August and tariff uncertainties are expected to support gold prices at a high level. Silver prices may continue to be strong in the short - term but should be cautious about the upside in the medium - term [5]. Medium - and Long - term Logic - The Fed still has a certain probability of cutting interest rates this year. With continuous global geopolitical uncertainties, intensified major - power games, and the trend of de - dollarization, central bank gold purchases are expected to continue, and the medium - and long - term center of gold prices is likely to move up [5].

来源：白银网 •银价周二小幅走高，但缺乏后续动力，仍在区间内波动。 •在确定近期走势之前，技术面走势喜忧参半值得谨慎。 •如果银价续走强，突破38.25-38.30美元的障碍，将抵消近期的看跌情绪。 周三（7月30日）亚市盘交易时段，白银连续第三天延续其横盘盘整走势，并且一度险些跌破38美元关口，后收复大部分跌幅，欧市盘初再次大幅 走跌，截至目前下跌0.40%至38.09美元/盎司 今日，上海华通铂银国标一号银定盘价报9154元/千克，较上一交易日下跌22元/千克。 （华通国标一号银周K线图） 从技术角度来看，区间价格走势在小时图上形成了一个矩形。在最近从多年高点回落的背景下，这可以被归类为看跌盘整阶段。然而，每小时/日 线图上的正振荡指标要求在进行更深的损失定位之前要谨慎一些。 与此同时，在38.25-38.30美元区域之外的持续强势，有可能将银价提升到38.70美元附近的下一个阻力位，从而达到39.00美元的整数。这种势头可 能进一步向39.50美元区域延伸，这是自上月触及的2012年2月以来的最高点。 另一方面，如果低于38.00美元的关口，则会重显下跌行情，并使银价容易加速进一步下跌至37.35-37 ...

Group 1 - Silver has experienced a significant price increase, maintaining close to a 14-year high, despite failing to sustain an initial breakout above $39 per ounce [1] - Strong industrial demand is a key driver behind the notable supply deficit in the silver market, with investment interest now taking a dominant role [1] - Recent trading data shows a divergence in the silver market, where speculative futures investors are taking profits while ETF investors are increasing their positions [1] Group 2 - The net long position in silver is currently at 42,756 contracts, reflecting a nearly 5% decrease from the previous week [2] - The inflow of funds into global silver ETFs reached 322,000 ounces last week, with total holdings rising to 775 million ounces, the highest level since August 2022 [2] Group 3 - Macquarie remains optimistic about silver but believes the current price surge has limits, raising its price forecast for silver due to increased investor demand [3] - The bank now expects an average silver price of $36 per ounce in Q3, up from a previous estimate of $33, and $35 for Q4, reflecting a 13% increase [3] - Looking ahead to 2026, silver prices are projected to remain above $30 per ounce, with expectations of a peak this summer [3]

Group 1 - The current trading price of London silver is above $35.39, with a recent high of $36.06 and a low of $35.39, indicating a short-term bullish trend [1] - The new South Korean Trade Minister Yeo Han-koo is advocating for a "mutually beneficial" trade agreement with the U.S. during his visit to Washington, emphasizing the need for cooperation beyond tariff issues [3] - The silver price has shown a bearish engulfing candlestick pattern, suggesting potential testing of lower prices, but a weekly close above $36.00 could provide strong support [3] Group 2 - To regain an upward trend, silver bulls need to reclaim the peak of $36.83 from June 26, with the next targets being $37.00 and the yearly peak of $37.31 [4] - If silver prices fall below $36.50, a test of the $36.00 support level is expected, with further declines targeting the daily low of $35.68 from June 24 and the latest cycle low of $35.29 [4]

Group 1: Fundamental Analysis of Spot Gold - The Federal Reserve maintained interest rates, with differing opinions on potential rate cuts within the year, which could enhance gold's value preservation demand [2] - Strong U.S. employment data may raise inflation concerns, supporting gold prices; however, March core PCE data showed a slowdown in inflation, leading to a more cautious monetary policy from the Fed [2] - Economic data from major economies like China will also impact physical demand for gold and global capital flows [2] Group 2: Geopolitical and Market Sentiment - Escalation of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tensions in the Middle East have heightened market risk aversion, driving funds into gold and supporting its price [3] - Fluctuations in global financial markets and unpredictable trade policies have led investors to seek refuge in gold, pushing prices higher [3] - The interplay of Fed monetary policy, economic data, geopolitical tensions, and market sentiment collectively influences gold prices, with a potential short-term target of $3,500 per ounce if dovish Fed statements and worsening geopolitical situations persist [3] Group 3: Technical Analysis of Spot Gold - The spot gold market initially broke through the key resistance level of $3,399, reaching an intraday peak of $3,414.79, but subsequently reversed direction [4] - After a brief consolidation, gold prices fell to the target level of $3,322, achieving a notable profit margin of $42 [4] - Current technical indicators suggest a dominant bearish trend, with short-term moving averages suppressing long-term averages, indicating a high likelihood of continued downward movement [4] Group 4: Technical Analysis of Spot Silver - The spot silver market showed expected behavior, rebounding to $33.750 before retreating to a low of $32.295, where signs of stabilization emerged [6] - The short-term chart indicates a prevailing bearish trend, with short-term moving averages consistently crossing below long-term averages [6] - Suggested trading strategy includes waiting for silver prices to rebound to the resistance level of $32.660 for a short position, with a stop-loss set at $32.960 and a profit target at $32.240 [6]